Speculation: Meeting 25% cap requirement for expansion draft

[BEERnSOUP]

I've seen a lot of threads discussing who potentially makes the roster ups for next year. I also see a lot people discarding the idea of signing much in the way of UFAs this summer in order to leave several spaces available for young emerging players.

Obviously management will have their hands full this summer as a lot of the emerging players will require waivers next year and there are only so many roster spots available. If "too many" of the young guys come up their cap hit will be minimal, forcing some players like Bozak, Kadri, JVR, Komarov to be included to meet the 25% requirement. IF some of these players are deemed to be expendable, they have value and should be traded rather than simply exposed to meet expansion requirements.

We all expect the leafs cap space and financial power to be used in trades, but I think another option that will/should be seriously considered by management as they plan for an expansion draft will be to overpay in the UFA market on say a 1-2 year deal (depending which year expansion happens) simply to have salary to expose in the draft.

I hadn't seen any discussion about UFA signings for the purposes of exposing them in an expansion draft. I understand it's a business and throwing millions of dollars at a player you don't want to keep sounds kind of stupid. If a team is say 4 million from the 25%, would it be worth overpaying a UFA to expose so a guy like Bozak can be traded for a return or protected rather than losing him for nothing? Can't see a budget team going for something like this, but maybe the Leafs? How much value they can get by trading a player and/or see in protecting someone who would otherwise have to be exposed. Kinda comes down to what is 1 million, 2 million, 3 million, etc. worth in players/picks which is something only management can really answer I guess.

Anyway, just wanted to throw the idea out there. I think it's plausible but I'm curious as to what others think.

I'm also hoping for a bit more clarity on how Horton fits in. He waived his NMC in the clarkson deal... does that mean he longer has one and can be exposed? Does he automatically require a protection slot due to the NMC regardless of the trade? Since he no longer plays I can't imagine he'd be unwilling to waive his NMC if asked since it really wouldn't affect him. IF he still has a NMC would this be an option or are players with a NMC just automatically slotted into using a protection slot?

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[TOGuy14]

We would never expose those quality players.

Lupul + Horton alone are over 10.5M in cap (and yes we should be able to expose Horton)

This doesn't even touch upon guys like Michalek, Greening, Cowen, Robidas etc.

 

[Kiwi]

I've seen a lot of threads discussing who potentially makes the roster ups for next year. I also see a lot people discarding the idea of signing much in the way of UFAs this summer in order to leave several spaces available for young emerging players.

Obviously management will have their hands full this summer as a lot of the emerging players will require waivers next year and there are only so many roster spots available. If "too many" of the young guys come up their cap hit will be minimal, forcing some players like Bozak, Kadri, JVR, Komarov to be included to meet the 25% requirement. IF some of these players are deemed to be expendable, they have value and should be traded rather than simply exposed to meet expansion requirements.

We all expect the leafs cap space and financial power to be used in trades, but I think another option that will/should be seriously considered by management as they plan for an expansion draft will be to overpay in the UFA market on say a 1-2 year deal (depending which year expansion happens) simply to have salary to expose in the draft.

I hadn't seen any discussion about UFA signings for the purposes of exposing them in an expansion draft. I understand it's a business and throwing millions of dollars at a player you don't want to keep sounds kind of stupid. If a team is say 4 million from the 25%, would it be worth overpaying a UFA to expose so a guy like Bozak can be traded for a return or protected rather than losing him for nothing? Can't see a budget team going for something like this, but maybe the Leafs? How much value they can get by trading a player and/or see in protecting someone who would otherwise have to be exposed. Kinda comes down to what is 1 million, 2 million, 3 million, etc. worth in players/picks which is something only management can really answer I guess.

Anyway, just wanted to throw the idea out there. I think it's plausible but I'm curious as to what others think.

I'm also hoping for a bit more clarity on how Horton fits in. He waived his NMC in the clarkson deal... does that mean he longer has one and can be exposed? Does he automatically require a protection slot due to the NMC regardless of the trade? Since he no longer plays I can't imagine he'd be unwilling to waive his NMC if asked since it really wouldn't affect him. IF he still has a NMC would this be an option or are players with a NMC just automatically slotted into using a protection slot?

We can get to 25% no worries
Lupul /Horton/Bozak enough said

 

[Faltorvo]

I've seen a lot of threads discussing who potentially makes the roster ups for next year. I also see a lot people discarding the idea of signing much in the way of UFAs this summer in order to leave several spaces available for young emerging players.

Obviously management will have their hands full this summer as a lot of the emerging players will require waivers next year and there are only so many roster spots available. If "too many" of the young guys come up their cap hit will be minimal, forcing some players like Bozak, Kadri, JVR, Komarov to be included to meet the 25% requirement. IF some of these players are deemed to be expendable, they have value and should be traded rather than simply exposed to meet expansion requirements.

We all expect the leafs cap space and financial power to be used in trades, but I think another option that will/should be seriously considered by management as they plan for an expansion draft will be to overpay in the UFA market on say a 1-2 year deal (depending which year expansion happens) simply to have salary to expose in the draft.

I hadn't seen any discussion about UFA signings for the purposes of exposing them in an expansion draft. I understand it's a business and throwing millions of dollars at a player you don't want to keep sounds kind of stupid. If a team is say 4 million from the 25%, would it be worth overpaying a UFA to expose so a guy like Bozak can be traded for a return or protected rather than losing him for nothing? Can't see a budget team going for something like this, but maybe the Leafs? How much value they can get by trading a player and/or see in protecting someone who would otherwise have to be exposed. Kinda comes down to what is 1 million, 2 million, 3 million, etc. worth in players/picks which is something only management can really answer I guess.

Anyway, just wanted to throw the idea out there. I think it's plausible but I'm curious as to what others think.

I'm also hoping for a bit more clarity on how Horton fits in. He waived his NMC in the clarkson deal... does that mean he longer has one and can be exposed? Does he automatically require a protection slot due to the NMC regardless of the trade? Since he no longer plays I can't imagine he'd be unwilling to waive his NMC if asked since it really wouldn't affect him. IF he still has a NMC would this be an option or are players with a NMC just automatically slotted into using a protection slot?

Hunwick,greening,michalek,robidas,lupul,horton,laich

we have tons of cap to exposed to get to the 25% no worries to add more.

 

[Duke Silver]

This doesn't even touch upon guys like Michalek, Greening, Cowen, Robidas etc.

All of these players will be gone by the time the expansion draft comes into play. Maybe not Greening, I could see us giving him a Peter Holland-esque deal. But even then, I don't think he's much of a risk to get taken.

 

[Mad Brills*]

A ton of guys expire next summer.

Cowen's getting bought out

It's really horton/lupul/bozak that are the guys that will be effected

 

[Faltorvo]

All of these players will be gone by the time the expansion draft comes into play. Maybe not Greening, I could see us giving him a Peter Holland-esque deal. But even then, I don't think he's much of a risk to get taken.

ummmm no they won't duke

it will be the teams roster for the 2016/17 season that they will apply the rules to

and yes that also includes and pending UFA on that roster

the draft will have to happen before July 1 2017 for purely league logistics reasons.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Horton, Lupul, then all the UFA's that aren't traded or bought out this summer, yes they count(Robidas, Michalek, Greening, Hunwick, Bernier)

I think we could get to 50% without much trouble if we had to.

 

[Canada4Gold]

All of these players will be gone by the time the expansion draft comes into play. Maybe not Greening, I could see us giving him a Peter Holland-esque deal. But even then, I don't think he's much of a risk to get taken.

they would have all just finished their last year of their contracts, but since the expansion draft is before july 1st they're still under contract and their AAV counts under the 25% needed.

 

[Mad Brills*]

they would have all just finished their last year of their contracts, but since the expansion draft is before july 1st they're still under contract and their AAV counts under the 25% needed.

they won't be kept So it's useless.

 

[Canada4Gold]

they won't be kept So it's useless.

what are you even talking about? Robidas is here until his contract runs out, Greening will likely be here until his runs out. Likely Bernier too. Maybe Michalek and Hunwick depending on their trade value next year

we don't need to re-up them(keep them), their contracts run out next year, and since they're UFA we obviously won't protect them and their 2016/17 salary counts towards the 25% since technically they're not UFA until July 1st and the expansion draft is before then. That's how they said it works if you haven't been paying attention.

Unless you're somehow suggesting that we can get rid of all of those 5 guys before next season ends which is pretty much impossible because nobody is taking Robidas. Or Greening so unless we buy him out he's here. The other 3 I doubt we'll trade all 3 but you never know.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Just remembered Laich too, that's a bunch more UFA cap that will count. We might be over 25% on UFA cap alone.

 

[Duke Silver]

they would have all just finished their last year of their contracts, but since the expansion draft is before july 1st they're still under contract and their AAV counts under the 25% needed.

Are you absolutely sure about that?

It makes no sense to allow teams to include players on expiring contracts, who won't even be their property in ~10 days.

 

[Stephen]

Can't they just give a couple of waiver fodder guys like Holland and whomever a cushy one year extension and expose them at the draft?

Or invite Lecavalier out of retirement and have him exposed in 2 years time. Something like that.

 

[Peasy]

We would never expose those quality players.

Lupul + Horton alone are over 10.5M in cap (and yes we should be able to expose Horton)

This doesn't even touch upon guys like Michalek, Greening, Cowen, Robidas etc.

Draft wouldn't be happening this season so the bolded are out.

 

[Faltorvo]

Are you absolutely sure about that?

It makes no sense to allow teams to include players on expiring contracts, who won't even be their property in ~10 days.

The expansion draft will have to happen before the July1 UFA season starts in 2017

it's purely a logistics reason and pretty self evident when one thinks about it

the reason bettmen said they will have to decide if it's a go before this UFA season starts is so teams know for fact and also know for fact the draft rules

so they can conduct the 2016 UFA season with full knowledge of how there 2016/17 roster and cap have to fit into the rules.

they will have to make the 25% made available, from some baseline number and all logic points to every teams 2016/17 roster and cap situation before all those numbers change prior to July 1 2017 the start of UFA season.

 

[rosscow]

Draft wouldn't be happening this season so the bolded are out.

Besides Cowen who is being bought out all the other players will be on the leafs roster for the expansion draft.

The draft happens before July 1 when there contracts are up.

 

[Barilko14]

The expansion draft will have to happen before the July1 UFA season starts in 2017

it's purely a logistics reason and pretty self evident when one thinks about it

the reason bettmen said they will have to decide if it's a go before this UFA season starts is so teams know for fact and also know for fact the draft rules

so they can conduct the 2016 UFA season with full knowledge of how there 2016/17 roster and cap have to fit into the rules.

they will have to make the 25% made available, from some baseline number and all logic points to every teams 2016/17 roster and cap situation before all those numbers change prior to July 1 2017 the start of UFA season.

Bolded is the most pertinent point.

If expansion happens next summer, they will have to use the 2016/2017 cap numbers, they couldn't possibly use cap figures not included UFAs as it would be a huge undertaking, not too mention how could they correctly predict the 23 man roster in order to get a true cap figure, if the UFAs are not included?

 

[TOGuy14]

All of these players will be gone by the time the expansion draft comes into play. Maybe not Greening, I could see us giving him a Peter Holland-esque deal. But even then, I don't think he's much of a risk to get taken.

A ton of guys expire next summer.

Cowen's getting bought out

It's really horton/lupul/bozak that are the guys that will be effected

Are you absolutely sure about that?

It makes no sense to allow teams to include players on expiring contracts, who won't even be their property in ~10 days.

Draft wouldn't be happening this season so the bolded are out.

The expansion draft would take place prior to the end of the 2016-2017 league season so for the purposes of the rules these players would still be Leafs property and exposed like any other roster player regardless of what their status will be in a couple weeks. And yes, this was allowed in past expansion drafts and teams selected players who eventually didn't not sign with them as UFAs.

It is this timing technicality about the league season and expansion draft that means Edmonton won't have to protect guys like McDavid, Draisatl, Nurse etc because they won't have yet COMPLETED their second pro year, they would still be in it.

We will have to expose 25% of our cap, there is nothing that says we need to expose desirable players (from a skill or contractual standpoint)

 

[Canada4Gold]

Are you absolutely sure about that?

It makes no sense to allow teams to include players on expiring contracts, who won't even be their property in ~10 days.

I can't say I'm absolutely sure because even the NHL isn't absultely sure, nothing is finalized, but that's what they said they're plannig to do

And just logistically it makes sense, if a team has a lot of UFA's that don't count suddenly you're making them include a bunch of their signed players just to come up with 25% cap. Say if a team had 50 or 60% of its cap becoming UFA they would be forced to include half or more than half of their signed players. If it's 25% of previous years cap then it only makes sense to include all players that were on said team that are still their property(until July 1st)

 

[Faltorvo]

I can't say I'm absolutely sure because even the NHL isn't absultely sure, nothing is finalized, but that's what they said they're plannig to do

And just logistically it makes sense, if a team has a lot of UFA's that don't count suddenly you're making them include a bunch of their signed players just to come up with 25% cap. Say if a team had 50 or 60% of its cap becoming UFA they would be forced to include half or more than half of their signed players. If it's 25% of previous years cap then it only makes sense to include all players that were on said team that are still their property(until July 1st)

heck a team could be put into a position where it is literally impossible to meet the 25% threshold

If they exclude pending UFAs , how about pending RFAs since they won't have any fixed contract value and could offer sheet hold out.?
exclude 2 years pro or less
exclude those with NMCs

a team could very well not be able to reach 25% even before using any of the allotted protection slots.

 

[TOGuy14]

I can't say I'm absolutely sure because even the NHL isn't absultely sure, nothing is finalized, but that's what they said they're plannig to do

And just logistically it makes sense, if a team has a lot of UFA's that don't count suddenly you're making them include a bunch of their signed players just to come up with 25% cap. Say if a team had 50 or 60% of its cap becoming UFA they would be forced to include half or more than half of their signed players. If it's 25% of previous years cap then it only makes sense to include all players that were on said team that are still their property(until July 1st)

Top heavy cap teams like Chicago would be decimated by these rules.

They have a core of about 8 guys they depend on as the nucleus that they surround with a bunch of cheaper guys or pending UFAs.

 

[080]

We can get to 25% no worries
Lupul /Horton/Bozak enough said

I think Horton's exposure is dubious. But even without him, Greening makes about 3; Michalek makes over 4; Cowen makes 3 (I think); Lupul makes 5.25; and Bozak makes 4.2. Done.