If Connolly's goal total increases this season, it's because he gets more powerplay time. Don't think it's realistic to expect much more even-strength goal scoring than he provided last year. Any increase in ice-time will be offset by a return to normalcy in his shooting percentage.
Personally, I'm fine with a 10G Connolly if he's part of a 3rd line that keeps the puck on the right half of the ice and isn't causing plays to die on his stick. A line with him, Eller, and Vrana can be a more than capable depth scoring/possession line.