McDavid's peak/prime vs. Jagr's peak/prime

[authentic]

i was not referring to you.

My bad

 

[Jets4Life]

My bad

No worries.

 

[authentic]

Boom. Why should an assist be minimized when often in the NHL a goal scorer sat back watching in awe as the player on their team with special talent made magic and the goal scorer moved over 3 feet to the right spot and tapped it in.

I'm exaggerating they obviously didn't stand around, but the point is valid. Often a goal scorer does jack to make a play happen other than do what literally any other player good enough to make it to the nhl could do.

The fact that very frequently in the NHL a sequence of events happening is what leads to a goal even being scored. This is the exact reason secondary assists exist and count as points. very frequently the sequence that set the goal in motion may have started with a D making a big steal and sending it down the ice or a forward dances through 2 people throws it to D who passes it back door for a tap in. The events that caused the goal often start somewhere else on the ice.

This why crosby and Gretzky were special. They used their mind to benefit the team. They are the best examples of. Players who started chains of passing that lead to goals. Truly special minds who opened up passing lanes not just for themselves, but for the guy they passed it to so he could pass it to a 3rd guy for him to score. Heck sometimes they even started a chain of passes that didn't even net them a point because trimary assists don't exist. McDavid has more talent than either, but I personally don't think he thinks the game the same way Gretzky and Crosby did.

Yeah the only reason I wouldn't have them as equal is for the simple fact that there are unassisted goals and you need a goal for an assist. So in that sense I would say a goal is worth 1, primaries are worth .99 and secondaries depending on the context could be anywhere from .1-.75 but on average I wouldn't have much problem with counting them as .25

Gretzky and Crosby are perfect examples of high hockey IQ with their playmaking abilities, along with Lemieux and some others like Forsberg, Oates, Thornton and Jagr are up there as well. McDavid is definitely up there too but I agree he might not be quite at Crosby's level there but makes up for it with his speed and stickhandling abilities.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Or we could use @Hockey Outsider 's formula where primary assist=goal. But a secondary assist is only 2/3.

Goal equals 2 assists is absolutely hogwash.

 

[Overrated]

Or we could use @Hockey Outsider 's formula where primary assist=goal. But a secondary assist is only 2/3.

Goal equals 2 assists is absolutely hogwash.

I can't really understand counting a goal as twice the value of a primary assist, it should be just about equal if anything. I agree with secondaries being worth much less though.

Boom. Why should an assist be minimized when often in the NHL a goal scorer sat back watching in awe as the player on their team with special talent made magic and the goal scorer moved over 3 feet to the right spot and tapped it in.

I'm exaggerating they obviously didn't stand around, but the point is valid. Often a goal scorer does jack to make a play happen other than do what literally any other player good enough to make it to the nhl could do.

The fact that very frequently in the NHL a sequence of events happening is what leads to a goal even being scored. This is the exact reason secondary assists exist and count as points. very frequently the sequence that set the goal in motion may have started with a D making a big steal and sending it down the ice or a forward dances through 2 people throws it to D who passes it back door for a tap in. The events that caused the goal often start somewhere else on the ice.

This why crosby and Gretzky were special. They used their mind to benefit the team. They are the best examples of. Players who started chains of passing that lead to goals. Truly special minds who opened up passing lanes not just for themselves, but for the guy they passed it to so he could pass it to a 3rd guy for him to score. Heck sometimes they even started a chain of passes that didn't even net them a point because trimary assists don't exist. McDavid has more talent than either, but I personally don't think he thinks the game the same way Gretzky and Crosby did.

Sure I've seen goals where the player goes through several guys a makes the perfect pass and the goal scorer has an easy tap in but those are pretty rare. Most tap ins are preceded by simple passes no harder than the tap in itself or by a missed shots/rebounds.


Even your average one timer which requires pin point accuracy is way harder to do than the pass preceding it.

On the other hand unlike the first scenario of a genius play followed by the easiest tap in possible, goals where simple passes are followed by great goals are in fact extremely common:

99% of assists just don't look like this

Don't see any reason why an assist should be viewed as equal to a goal.

 

[Pominville Knows]

I'd like to mention Gretzky's very last point in his last game against Pittsburgh. Sure; had he not seen that it was Brian Leetch he was about to pass to he might not have had confidence in making that play, that Leetch could complete the one-timer primary assist to someone by the semi-far post. But i believe it was Gretzky who had the best accomplishment there; he saw that play unfolding but had too many defenders between him and the would be goal scorer going the net. Luckily he saw Leetch in the middle and triangled the whole thing.

I would personaly say that on average a goal is worth 1, a primary .75 and .25 for a secondary.

 

[daver]

Or we could use @Hockey Outsider 's formula where primary assist=goal. But a secondary assist is only 2/3.

Goal equals 2 assists is absolutely hogwash.

Is there some sort of statistical anomaly in the OP that clearly indicates a need to change how goals and assists are formally tracked?

Is there any doubt that both players are drivers of offense and not simply along for the ride and wracking up points?

The whole 1A vs. 2A has been debunked many times. The forwards that get the most 1As generally get the most 2As.

Jagr was a bit better at goalscoring than McDavid, McDavid was a bit better at playmaking. I don't see that as being any kind of significant edge.

 

[Overrated]

Is there some sort of statistical anomaly in the OP that clearly indicates a need to change how goals and assists are formally tracked?

It doesn't and shouldn't be changed at all. No need for it. But it should be understood that a forward who scores 50 goals and 50 assists is offensively superior to a forward who scores 25 goals and 75 assists and it shouldn't be seriously argued against.

I am not arguing against the point system itself. It's cool assists are given so much attention unlike in soccer where it's difficult to even track regular assists let alone secondary which aren't even tracked at all if I am correct. It just shouldn't be looked at at face value.

 

[daver]

It doesn't and shouldn't be changed at all. No need for it. But it should be understood that a forward who scores 50 goals and 50 assists is offensively superior to a forward who scores 25 goals and 75 assists and it shouldn't be seriously argued against.

I am not arguing against the point system itself. It's cool assists are given so much attention unlike in soccer where it's difficult to even track regular assists let alone secondary which aren't even tracked at all if I am correct. It just shouldn't be looked at at face value.

I think it is generally understood that playmaking and goalscoring are both needed to generate offense. When talking about superstar level players, their isn't much difference. Look at Thornton and Jagr in 2005/06. Or Forsberg and Heyduk in 2002/03,

 

[67 others]

It doesn't and shouldn't be changed at all. No need for it. But it should be understood that a forward who scores 50 goals and 50 assists is offensively superior to a forward who scores 25 goals and 75 assists and it shouldn't be seriously argued against.

I am not arguing against the point system itself. It's cool assists are given so much attention unlike in soccer where it's difficult to even track regular assists let alone secondary which aren't even tracked at all if I am correct. It just shouldn't be looked at at face value.

That Logic is slightly flawed.

If I agreed to it i would be in effect saying Marcus Naslund or Milan Hejduk should have won the hart over Peter Forsberg in 2003?

Naslund 48 goals, 56 assists, 104 points
Forsberg 29 goals, 77 assists, 106 points

Hejduk 50 goals, 48 assists, 98 points

And we all know Hejduk only scored those 50 goals because of the elite playmaking prowess of Forsberg

its no different than a decent scorer like Cheechoo suddenly becoming a Rocket Richard winner because he has an elite playmaking Center who can turn anyone into a better scorer.

Glen Murray was a decent player. Played with Joe Thornton a few years and was considered great those years. His career best in years he did not play with Thornton was 29 goals and 62 points.

Bill Guerin got a 45 million dollar contract because he magically found his scoring touch and potted a few 40+ goals seasons while playing with....Joe Thornton. A contract the Stars would regret for years because he became a mere moral without joe Thornton.

Who was Devin Setoguchi again? oh yeah, that kid who never again scored 20 goals in a season after he left the sharks. in fact, he only scored 30 the year they put him with Thornton regularly.

Ryane Clowe excelled when playing with jumbo Joe, and was just an enforcer without him.

Its a story as old as time in hockey when it comes to elite playmakers. They just make regular players numbers look better than they are. if you are going to argue goals should be valued higher than assists, ill agree. But there are special cases that need to be highlighted. Elite playmakers could make goals happen with a fire Hydrant on their line

 

[Overrated]

That Logic is slightly flawed.

If I agreed to it i would be in effect saying Marcus Naslund or Milan Hejduk should have won the hart over Peter Forsberg in 2003?

Did he only get it because he led in points? Because people in this thread themselves disregarded secondary assists to a large degree but unlike Thornton Forsberg's assists were largely secondary. Hart is an MVP trophy, not the offensively best player trophy after all. I think him being elite defensively and getting to a +52 helped him quite a bit there.

its no different than a decent scorer like Cheechoo suddenly becoming a Rocket Richard winner because he has an elite playmaking Center who can turn anyone into a better scorer.

Glen Murray was a decent player. Played with Joe Thornton a few years and was considered great those years. His career best in years he did not play with Thornton was 29 goals and 62 points.

Bill Guerin got a 45 million dollar contract because he magically found his scoring touch and potted a few 40+ goals seasons while playing with....Joe Thornton. A contract the Stars would regret for years because he became a mere moral without joe Thornton.

Who was Devin Setoguchi again? oh yeah, that kid who never again scored 20 goals in a season after he left the sharks. in fact, he only scored 30 the year they put him with Thornton regularly.

Ryane Clowe excelled when playing with jumbo Joe, and was just an enforcer without him.

Its a story as old as time in hockey when it comes to elite playmakers. They just make regular players numbers look better than they are. if you are going to argue goals should be valued higher than assists, ill agree. But there are special cases that need to be highlighted. Elite playmakers could make goals happen with a fire Hydrant on their line

I am not denying that elite playmakers don't have an impact on goal scoring of other players at all though you're making these guys look like scrubs.

Looking at the numbers Glen Murray still scored 28 goals in just 59 games at 34 years old without Joe. That is almost a 40 goal pace at 82 games. Bill Guerin was scoring around 30 goals per 82 games in both the Oilers and the Stars. Devin Setoguchi was still scoring his first season in Minnesota at the same pace as his last two seasons for the Sharks. The only big outlier is Cheechoo but that was even Joe's best year so it's safe to say even Cheechoo had a positive influence on Thornton. Afaik he was a slower skater with a great shot whose career was bogged down by injuries.

Interestingly Joe would still be rated higher than Cheechoo even in that one super outlier season using my evaluation and that doesn't include the fact that Thornton was much better defensively. He'd of course end up worse off than Jagr using my evaluation but that's fair.

​

 

[67 others]

Did he only get it because he led in points? Because people in this thread themselves disregarded secondary assists to a large degree but unlike Thornton Forsberg's assists were largely secondary. Hart is an MVP trophy, not the offensively best player trophy after all. I think him being elite defensively and getting to a +52 helped him quite a bit there.


I am not denying that elite playmakers don't have an impact on goal scoring of other players at all though you're making these guys look like scrubs.

Looking at the numbers Glen Murray still scored 28 goals in just 59 games at 34 years old without Joe. That is almost a 40 goal pace at 82 games. Bill Guerin was scoring around 30 goals per 82 games in both the Oilers and the Stars. Devin Setoguchi was still scoring his first season in Minnesota at the same pace as his last two seasons for the Sharks. The only big outlier is Cheechoo but that was even Joe's best year so it's safe to say even Cheechoo had a positive influence on Thornton. Afaik he was a slower skater with a great shot whose career was bogged down by injuries.

Interestingly Joe would still be rated higher than Cheechoo even in that one super outlier season using my evaluation and that doesn't include the fact that Thornton was much better defensively. He'd of course end up worse off than Jagr using my evaluation but that's fair.

​

Glen Murray scoring 28 goals and 45 points in 59 games without Thornton was just par for the course with the rest of his career. Scoring was up after the lockout(his 2nd place goal finish in 2001 with 41 goals would need to be 50-55 goals to get 2nd place post lockout. Not so strangely, the guy who ended up playing with Thornton for the remaining 59 games won the Rocket post lockout) and hell, the year prior he only played with Thornton for 22 games. in that time he scored 12 goals and 9 assists and 21 points. Given he finished well below a PPG, Clearly he went down without joe Feeding him. With Thornton he scored 44 goals and 92 points in the dead puck era. And Guerin? 30 goal scorer without Thornton sure, something 30 to 45 guys a year did at that time. With Thornton, Guerin(And Murray) were 2nd in goalscoring leaguewide lol, as opposed to being in the top 30-40.

There is a very clear pattern of guys having their career years with Thornton and it wasn't by accident. He made almost everyone he played with better unless their styles drastically clashed. That kind of playmaking, assists are what made the goals and are just as valuable as the goalscorer. Thornton is in that elite tier of all time playmakers

Setoguchi only got to play on Thornton's wing for 1 year and he scored 31 goals. After that he occasionally got a chance on his wing, but not as often. he just faded to oblivion when not carried by Jumbo

 

[Matsun]

Neither player put togheter a "perfect" season, Jagr hit 140+ with Mario on the team and McDavid had a legendary season but in only played vs canadian teams and 58 games. I hope this will be a signature McDavid season. They did however have the 2 highest scoring non Wayne/Mario calendar years ever.

McDavid in 2021 calendar year.
Mcdavid: 87-52-102-157-1.8
Draisaitl:87-55-80-135-1.55
Matthews:79-61-38--99-1.25
Huberdeau:86-31-68-99-1.15
Rantanen:76-44-52-96-1.26

Only Wayne and Mario have scored more in a year. Only Draisaitl, Matthews and Huberdeau had more points than McDavids 98 Even Strength points.

Jagr in 1999 calendar year.
Jagr: 84-63-89-152-1.81
Selänne:84-48-61-109-1.3
Kariya:86-42-54-96-1.12
Demitra:85-35-55-90-1.06
Fleury:75-32-58-90-1.20

Only McDavid, Wayne and Mario have scored more in a year. Jagrs closest teammate was Kovalev on 72 points. He led in goals by 15, assists by 18 and points by 43. Jagr had a modest 104 points on even strength.

 

[authentic]

Neither player put togheter a "perfect" season, Jagr hit 140+ with Mario on the team and McDavid had a legendary season but in only played vs canadian teams and 58 games. I hope this will be a signature McDavid season. They did however have the 2 highest scoring non Wayne/Mario calendar years ever.

McDavid in 2021 calendar year.
Mcdavid: 87-52-102-157-1.8
Draisaitl:87-55-80-135-1.55
Matthews:79-61-38--99-1.25
Huberdeau:86-31-68-99-1.15
Rantanen:76-44-52-96-1.26

Only Wayne and Mario have scored more in a year. Only Draisaitl, Matthews and Huberdeau had more points than McDavids 98 Even Strength points.

Jagr in 1999 calendar year.
Jagr: 84-63-89-152-1.81
Selänne:84-48-61-109-1.3
Kariya:86-42-54-96-1.12
Demitra:85-35-55-90-1.06
Fleury:75-32-58-90-1.20

Only McDavid, Wayne and Mario have scored more in a year. Jagrs closest teammate was Kovalev on 72 points. He led in goals by 15, assists by 18 and points by 43. Jagr had a modest 104 points on even strength.

When you consider scoring levels and goals scored Jagr easily had the better calendar year. Him playing 3 less games just seals the deal.