Post-Game Talk: McDavid took that personally

[bellagiobob]

He had the worst save percentage of any goalie last playoffs and when you look back over the last at least 10 years, no team that won the cup had a goalie that bad numbers wise. It wasn’t even close. You can’t win with goaltending that bad and last year was a fluke with him in net. You probably couldn’t get to the finals again with those numbers in 100 tries if you tried to duplicate it.

I get that Skinner gives most of us the shimmies when he plays, but I hate when made up stats are presented as fact. Of all goalies that played in 4 of more playoff games, he was 7th out of 15, so right in the middle, not the worst SP of any goalie in the playoffs. His .901 SP was right around that magic number that the Oilers usually win games. He gave us league average goaltending in the playoffs, and hopefully he gives us a similar SP or better this year, and if he does, we have as good a chance as any of having a good run.

 

[tardigrade81]

Besides "we can't let @tardigrade81 into the league because of parity"

Bettman and his politics

I could play for the train wreck Blackhawks and they would be undefeated

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I get that Skinner gives most of us the shimmies when he plays, but I hate when made up stats are presented as fact. Of all goalies that played in 4 of more playoff games, he was 7th out of 15, so right in the middle. His .901 SP was right around that magic number that the Oilers usually win games. He gave us league average goaltending in the playoffs, that's what I would expect from him, and hopefully he gives us a similar SP or better this year, and if he does, we have as good a chance as any of having a good run.

Fair but Skinner was better last season and entered the playoffs with a 905 and then dipped to 901 in the playoffs.

What is going to happen entering the playoffs with an 894? Expecting league average again is a long shot.

 

[bellagiobob]

Fair but Skinner was better last season and entered the playoffs with a 905 and then dipped to 901 in the playoffs.

What is going to happen entering the playoffs with an 894? Expecting league average again is a long shot.

Really my only point was that the poster said that he had the worst SP of any goalie in the playoffs, which is simply not the truth. I have no problems shitting on his play, let's just keep it factual. Like I said earlier, my choice would be to start Pickard, I don't have confidence in Skinner at this point.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I looked up every opponent both Skinner and Pickard have faced so far this year and did a bit of stats crunching...

Pickard faced opponents that had an average of 10.39% shooting percentage
Skinner faced opponents that had an average of 10.78% shooting percentage

So based JUST on those factors alone...

Pickard should have a 89.61 save percentage based on the quality of shooters he faced over all the minutes he played. He has an actual 90.11 save pct so he "beats" the expected by .50%

Skinner should have a 89.22 save percentage based on the quality of shooters he faced over all the minutes he played. He has an actual 89.37 save pct so he "beats" the expected by .15%

Of course that's a rather simplistic view because the Oilers team defense also plays a factor...

...but just based on the quality of competition the goalies faced... Pickard has done a somewhat better job than Skinner in net... by a difference of about .35%

This IS taking into account that Skinner has faced more difficult competition.

Personally I don't think that .35% is massive but it's still a slight edge for Pickard and every bit of advantage matters.

 

[foshizzle]

Ok.... we will see

I’m not saying Knob will take him out- some of his coaching decisions have made no sense- but he shouldn’t be playing every game.

 

[foshizzle]

I get that Skinner gives most of us the shimmies when he plays, but I hate when made up stats are presented as fact. Of all goalies that played in 4 of more playoff games, he was 7th out of 15, so right in the middle, not the worst SP of any goalie in the playoffs. His .901 SP was right around that magic number that the Oilers usually win games. He gave us league average goaltending in the playoffs, and hopefully he gives us a similar SP or better this year, and if he does, we have as good a chance as any of having a good run.

Huh? No he didn’t. He was 11th in the playoffs in goals saved above expected. He is also the worst goalie in the cap era that have played atleast 20 games in goals saved above expected. Those are the facts. Save % is a byproduct of the team play and quality of chances given (which the oilers were tied with Florida as the best). He also has became the first goalie in history to win a series with a 0.833 save %. I’ll throw another stat at you- the Oilers during the season were 2nd best at preventing rush chances- Stuart gave up the most goals on the rush and was dead last in rush save % (and goals saved above expected). When the playoffs hit he continued his horrid goaltending against the rush. When he did play well against Dallas- the Oilers were playing very conservatively and trying to prevent rush chances. Against Florida- they aren’t a rush team- but the biggest back breaking goals he gave up in that series were rush chances (including game 7 game winner).

He is nowhere close to average. If he was- Oilers would have a cup

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Huh? No he didn’t. He was 11th in the playoffs in goals saved above expected. He is also the worst goalie in the cap era that have played atleast 20 games in goals saved above expected. Those are the facts. Save % is a byproduct of the team play and quality of chances given (which the oilers were tied with Florida as the best). He also has became the first goalie in history to win a series with a 0.833 save %. I’ll throw another stat at you- the Oilers during the season were 2nd best at preventing rush chances- Stuart gave up the most goals on the rush and was dead last in rush save % (and goals saved above expected). When the playoffs hit he continued his horrid goaltending against the rush. When he did play well against Dallas- the Oilers were playing very conservatively and trying to prevent rush chances. Against Florida- they aren’t a rush team- but the biggest back breaking goals he gave up in that series were rush chances (including game 7 game winner).

He is nowhere close to average. If he was- Oilers would have a cup

Are we sure your stats are correct? You also think Connor brown has a 31% xGF this year.

 

[bellagiobob]

Huh? No he didn’t. He was 11th in the playoffs in goals saved above expected. He is also the worst goalie in the cap era that have played atleast 20 games in goals saved above expected. Those are the facts. Save % is a byproduct of the team play and quality of chances given (which the oilers were tied with Florida as the best). He also has became the first goalie in history to win a series with a 0.833 save %. I’ll throw another stat at you- the Oilers during the season were 2nd best at preventing rush chances- Stuart gave up the most goals on the rush and was dead last in rush save % (and goals saved above expected). When the playoffs hit he continued his horrid goaltending against the rush. When he did play well against Dallas- the Oilers were playing very conservatively and trying to prevent rush chances. Against Florida- they aren’t a rush team- but the biggest back breaking goals he gave up in that series were rush chances (including game 7 game winner).

He is nowhere close to average. If he was- Oilers would have a cup

"He had the worst save percentage of any goalie last playoffs"

That is what the poster said. Which is not true. That was what I was commenting on. Pretty simple.

 

[Fourier]

This is what I'm waiting for too... I'm curious to see how they finagle the cap. It's pretty clear to me (I don't think this falls into conspiracy theory land) that they've held out Drai, McD, Ekholm, even Klingberg, in a rotating fashion, each for a long enough time (14 days) that any one of them CAN be LTIR'd for the last few games of the season.

I like that they've built in that optionality.

With McD coming back, it seems to indicate that Drai would be the logical LTIR candidate, but maybe Klingberg gives them enough? He makes $1.8 and we were using less than $2M of Kane's LTIR pool.

It's tough to know without intimate knowledge of the actual pool of saved cap dollars. It would come down to the day-by-day allocation of dollars and when exactly they expect Kane to return. My guess is they probably have room for Kane if he only plays the last 2-3 games of the season.

If my math and understanding of the cap is correct (and it may not be @Fourier). Assume Kane wants to play the final two games... It works out like this:

Kane = $5.1M / 82 x 2 games = $124,390 actual dollars required.
Klingberg LTIR = $1.8M / 82 x 2 games = $43,902 additional dollars available.

So we only have to have saved ~$80K for a two-game Kane return. We stopped accruing when we acquired Walman, but he's only costing us $37.8K per game and Kane's LTIR covered that and more... which means there should still be some actual non-LTIR dollars available.

Two things with the bolded. The first is a slight quibble with your bolded calculations. In fact it is days on the roster that matter not games played. This would not have a material impact on your numbers though.

The second is the bigger issue. The way LTIR works is that players on LTIR still count against your cap. You are however, able to replace them with players having a cumulative AAV of no greater than the LTIR'd players cap hit. With Klingberg on LTIR the Oilers currently have $1.28M in unused LTIR space. If Kane came off LTIR they would now lose the ability to replace his $5.125M cap hit. So they would have to shed
$5.125 - 1.28M=3.845M in AAV to make this work or LTIR another player with an AAV of $roughly $4M .

So accrued cap space, if the Oilers have any, will not rescue you here.

 

[Fourier]

No we aren’t. He is 31%xGF. He is bad.

I saw this and was originally very surprised but I don't think it is actually true, According to natural stat trick 5 vs 5 Brown has an xGF% of 51.12.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Now Brown has played up the ladder with McDavid and Leon, but even if you take those two out or the equation Brown with Janmark and neither of these guys has an xGF% of 50.20% and an actual GF% of 48.28 and that is with a very serious defensive push when they are together.

 

[harpoon]

"He had the worst save percentage of any goalie last playoffs"

That is what the poster said. Which is not true. That was what I was commenting on. Pretty simple.

I also recalled reading something like the bold. So I checked around. I think what happened is that some articles were written during the Vancouver series when Skinner was flat out awful and almost cost the team their season. People may be recalling those articles without realizing, or allowing for the fact that, Skinner went on to play better after that series and therefore his numbers obviously improved. But for that one small window (20 game sample must include earlier playoff appearances as well) Skinner was indeed historically bad. Quote from article below.

How bad is it? Skinner not only has the worst numbers of any netminder to start a game in Oilers postseason history. But he is also the NHL’s worst playoff performer in the salary cap era by a sizable margin. Of all 69 goalies since 2005 with at least 15 playoff appearances, Skinner ranks dead last in save percentage with an .881 mark in 20 games. He’s worse than Kari Lehtonen’s .887 (19 games) and Nikolai Khabibulin’s .898 (15 games) – and that’s not a small sample.

Oilers’ Stanley Cup hopes are swirling with Stuart Skinner cracking under pressure

The worst-performing playoff starter of the cap era is jeopardizing Edmonton’s season.

www.dailyfaceoff.com

 

[bucks_oil]

At that time, they could have just called HolloBergs agents and asked them what they wanted as it was mid-August by then. They didn't even trade for their pick they needed from Pitt until August 13th. Or they could have read what the media was saying their ask was, and looked at our capspace on Puckpedia to just go over the meager amount we set aside for them.


The team was trying to pinch pennies and make some young guys sweat it out, to take a discount. Others have done it, but they didnt leave themselves completely exposed while doing so.

We did it with McLeod too, but got away with it that time.

That's the difference the SCF Game 7 spotlight makes.

 

[bucks_oil]

Two things with the bolded. The first is a slight quibble with your bolded calculations. In fact it is days on the roster that matter not games played. This would not have a material impact on your numbers though.

The second is the bigger issue. The way LTIR works is that players on LTIR still count against your cap. You are however, able to replace them with players having a cumulative AAV of no greater than the LTIR'd players cap hit. With Klingberg on LTIR the Oilers currently have $1.28M in unused LTIR space. If Kane came off LTIR they would now lose the ability to replace his $5.125M cap hit. So they would have to shed
$5.125 - 1.28M=3.845M in AAV to make this work or LTIR another player with an AAV of $roughly $4M .

So accrued cap space, if the Oilers have any, will not rescue you here.

Thanks for the correction. But presuming you actually had enough accrued space, why wouldn't it help you? Are you no longer allowed to use it + the additional LTIR space?

Example with simple numbers:

• Let's assume there are 10 roster days left in the season and 200 roster days per year.
• We operate at 200K total below the cap all season... so at the end of the season we have $200K actual dollars left and available to pay across the remaining 10 roster days. $200 / 10 days = $20K per day x 200 is the equivalent of a $4M player right?
• Now, let's say we also LTIR a guy making $2M. $2M / 200 = $10K per roster day additional space we can allocate to a replacement. So if we have $20K/day from our accrued space and $10K/day from our LTIR space, doesn't that total $30K/day mean that we can activate a player making up to $6M AAV?

What am I missing? I know you aren't allowed to continue accruing, but are you saying I can't double dip (combine accrued with LTIR space)? Or are you saying it wouldn't be enough to account for Kane?

 

[K1984]

As much as they like him I just don’t think they have a leg to stand on.

Or do they think Skinner getting his noggin rattled will magically turn around his game? They can’t be that stupid… right?

Unfortunately that doesn't matter here. We've proven time and time again that goalies are managed by superlative, not by common sense and logic.

"He's our guy!" and "we almost won last year with him!" will trump the fact that he's the second best goalie no matter how much Pickard outplays him. We'll have to wait until Skinner puts us on the ropes for Pickard to be in the playoffs.

 

[FiveFourteenSixOne]

I have a story if anyone's interested. I think Binnington is a good goalie but I say him cheating to his blocker side all night. 3 goals were scored on glove hand side low with lots of room.
Now.... here's my story...

In beer league... after my illustrious career in the show (yes..yes I made it. Well - technically. I was in the oilfield at time and on EI so I was technically getting paid to play hockey every day at noon), our goalies didn't show up once. For some stupid reason I volunteered. With that... in warm up I discovered (my teammates as well) that I had a wicked glove hand. Since everyone was shooting clippers from blue line I simply gave them more of glove side then saved 95% of shots. It was a warm up clinic and my team was in awe (really!).
Now the old long story short... I simply sucked. Whenever someone came in for a decent or shot close - goal. Goal. Goal. I think we lost 647 to 8 or something !!!!
And... I retired

Anyway... it was funny to be reminded of that by Binningtons play. Thanks for listening

Great story-telling, bro LOL.

 

[foshizzle]

"He had the worst save percentage of any goalie last playoffs"

That is what the poster said. Which is not true. That was what I was commenting on. Pretty simple.

No- I think you know he meant he was the worst goalie, which you debated that he was middle of the pack. You argued this, when in reality- he has been the one worst goaliez in the playoffs in modern history

 

[foshizzle]

I saw this and was originally very surprised but I don't think it is actually true, According to natural stat trick 5 vs 5 Brown has an xGF% of 51.12.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Now Brown has played up the ladder with McDavid and Leon, but even if you take those two out or the equation Brown with Janmark and neither of these guys has an xGF% of 50.20% and an actual GF% of 48.28 and that is with a very serious defensive push when they are together.

I was looking at all strengths- but you are right 5v5. I didn’t set my filters right. This is why confirmation biases are a bad things.

 

[Stoneman89]

I like this Gauthier kid. I like him a lot. To me he's the best Duck. I liked him even more after yesterday.

Anaheim has some decent young talent, Carlsson and Lacombe look like keepers as well. Gauthier looks like he'll be a stud. Dostal is decent in net and still young. Mintyukov only 21 and another potential piece for the blueline. Going to get some more nice picks this year. Both they and San Jose have some nice core pieces to build on.

 

[Stoneman89]

The Oilers also exploited Broberg's weaknesses for the 3rd game in a row - he struggles to defend back and forth between corner and net front during a cycle and also poorly covers the front of the net. His quick puck retrievals (when their is limited/no pressure) and rush defense remain his strong points. When facing pressure, he gets the yips on defensive zone clears as we saw in the first 2 games.

He' still young and first full year in the league. It took our own 9 million dollar guy about 7 years to finally figure out how to cover guys in front of the net, so he has plenty of runway. One of the plays that stood out to me was Hyman doggedly chasing him and then Broberg shielding him with his body and then seemingly saying, enough, and just put it into high gear and skate up the ice.

 

[oilexport]

Let's bring Wayne back, to play with Mcdavid for a couple games. Wayne should get a couple goals....Screw Ovi !

 

[bucks_oil]

I was looking at all strengths- but you are right 5v5. I didn’t set my filters right. This is why confirmation biases are a bad things.

This is not the way.

You are supposed to swear at him and call him names for correcting you. He's such a Brown-apologist,... Don't you know?

Or maybe just don't reply at all, as the stats are pretty clearly not in your favour here... do not concede an inch!

Ohhhh... I see, registered in 2007. Carry on Boomer!

 

[subnet]

Fair but Skinner was better last season and entered the playoffs with a 905 and then dipped to 901 in the playoffs.

What is going to happen entering the playoffs with an 894? Expecting league average again is a long shot.My

My 'only' hope with Skinner, is that this break somehow, someway, turns into a huge reset for him. He's had a crap year, we've all said it. Maybe this can turn into a big undo and he can have his 'good' stretch of games now, rather than in a January... crossing fingers

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I was looking at all strengths- but you are right 5v5. I didn’t set my filters right. This is why confirmation biases are a bad things.

I don’t even think all strengths has him down that low

 

[Seth92]

He had the worst save percentage of any goalie last playoffs and when you look back over the last at least 10 years, no team that won the cup had a goalie that bad numbers wise. It wasn’t even close. You can’t win with goaltending that bad and last year was a fluke with him in net. You probably couldn’t get to the finals again with those numbers in 100 tries if you tried to duplicate it.

Exactly! Not without maybe a few big guys who can also be defensive masterminds on offense and have a system that doesn't expose the G to so many breakaways (or maybe we are trusting Bouchard a little too much against some top guys who regularly expose him) I mean in an ideal world that's what we would need to make Skinner even look like half of Dustin Wolf.... and you would need Bouchard to be a faster skater with way more hustle for that to even work out.