Value of: Mavrik Bourque

[Dipsy Doodle]

The new offer sheet numbers are high, I was going off last year's, that's overpayment for Bourque and brings his value down to 2nd or maybe lower. That probably does get the player but you'll be disappointed.

Hey, Pittsburgh's got a lot of cap space and looking for scratch tickets. Gamble we'd be willing to take.

 

[SEALBound]

The new offer sheet numbers are high, I was going off last year's, that's overpayment for Bourque and brings his value down to 2nd or maybe lower. That probably does get the player but you'll be disappointed.

Disappointed in Bourque overall or disappointed in Bourque relative to a $4.7mil salary? I think most OS's come with the understanding that you likely have to overpay a bit to gain the rights to the player. $4.7mil for 2 years is likely too high overall but in the context of the Pens cap structure and rebuild goals, probably not.

I'd rather make it easier and just give you the 2nd.

 

[hairylikebear]

Disappointed in Bourque overall or disappointed in Bourque relative to a $4.7mil salary? I think most OS's come with the understanding that you likely have to overpay a bit to gain the rights to the player. $4.7mil for 2 years is likely too high overall but in the context of the Pens cap structure and rebuild goals, probably not.

I'd rather make it easier and just give you the 2nd.

Relative to the cap hit, and I'm mainly saying that based on what I know about Bourque, and not what I know about the Pens.

The straight 2nd is obviously preferable but, in line with what you were saying, the point of the OS is to lower his value and force the Stars to accept a worse return.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Relative to the cap hit, and I'm mainly saying that based on what I know about Bourque, and not what I know about the Pens.

The straight 2nd is obviously preferable but, in line with what you were saying, the point of the OS is to lower his value and force the Stars to accept a worse return.

Based on past trades, guys who are at risk for an offersheet tend to get traded for a bit more value than what their offersheet compensation would be. I'd guess probably a 2nd and 3rd is what Bourque gets traded for if he gets traded. That's essentially what Chinakhov went for as well.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

I could see Montreal offer their first for him. He'd be just the right age to grow with the current core. 2C role would definitely be open to him.

If Dallas need D, I could see Struble get worked in there somehow.

I see Bourque as a tweener like Newhook, can play 2C but ideally a 3rd line winger on a contender. Not that he doesn’t have value but we don’t need 2 of them.

 

[McShogun99]

Some GM should offer him 2.29 million (3rd round compensation) to test if Nil is a moron like Bowman.

 

[SEALBound]

Relative to the cap hit, and I'm mainly saying that based on what I know about Bourque, and not what I know about the Pens.

The straight 2nd is obviously preferable but, in line with what you were saying, the point of the OS is to lower his value and force the Stars to accept a worse return.

I'm not sure what his value is to be honest. I think a 2nd+4th based on similar trades in recent history is probably about right. Skipping the OS obviously eliminates any hard feelings between the GMs. I think the market would be there for him and I imagine there will be plenty of teams willing to go over the simple OS payment. I would.

 

[account deactivated]

To Ottawa:
Bourque, Lyubushkin (1 x $3.25)

To Dallas:
Hensler, Matinpalo (1 x $0.875), 3rd

So, the Stars give up a current bottom pair defenseman and a good, young middle six guy to get a bottom pairing d-man, a future bottom pairing d-man (if he even sticks at the NHL level), and a 3rd round pick?

We'd be better off if Bourque signed an offer sheet and we didn't match because we'd end up with at least a 2nd pick, lol.

Moving Steel would be a mistake IMO, Steel is great value for the Stars at $2 million. Not anything overly special, but a C/W that can give you 30 points a year and play all throughout your lineup is worth $2 million a year.

Steel is also constantly being thrown on forward lines he doesn't belong on just because he can skate. I can't recall a single time that it fixed the offense or led to anything other than him being stuck on that line because the line he used to be on suddenly did better without him. I'm really just over Steel at this point because of that usage the past two seasons, lol.

At least Faksa knows his place and the coaches leave him there.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

So, the Stars give up a current bottom pair defenseman and a good, young middle six guy to get a bottom pairing d-man, a future bottom pairing d-man (if he even sticks at the NHL level), and a 3rd round pick?

We'd be better off if Bourque signed an offer sheet and we didn't match because we'd end up with at least a 2nd pick, lol.

Well, Matinpalo is like 3x less expensive than Lyubushkin, much younger, and arguably better. And if you think that Hensler, who went 23rd overall last year (and probably lost modest, but not significant value) and a 3rd this year is less appealing than a 2nd next year… Ok.

I can understand if you think you can get a better package than that, but I sincerely doubt its coming via offer sheet.

 

[hairylikebear]

Based on past trades, guys who are at risk for an offersheet tend to get traded for a bit more value than what their offersheet compensation would be. I'd guess probably a 2nd and 3rd is what Bourque gets traded for if he gets traded. That's essentially what Chinakhov went for as well.

I'm not sure what his value is to be honest. I think a 2nd+4th based on similar trades in recent history is probably about right. Skipping the OS obviously eliminates any hard feelings between the GMs. I think the market would be there for him and I imagine there will be plenty of teams willing to go over the simple OS payment. I would.

That's fair value if the Stars wanted to trade him. You'd have to make the OS unpalatable, or you'd have to offer real value. Those are the only vectors available to the Pens, IMO.

 

[SEALBound]

That's fair value if the Stars wanted to trade him. You'd have to make the OS unpalatable, or you'd have to offer real value. Those are the only vectors available to the Pens, IMO.

I don't know if Bourque is a player you send an "unpalatable to the team" offer sheet to.

I'd send your 2nd back plus the NJD 3rd. I would also entertain something like send Koivunen over in place of either. He's what you would want from that 2nd or 3rd. I'd probably end up regretting it but I'd do your 2nd+Koivunen for the RFA rights.

 

[wingdestroyer666]

Would Dallas have interest in Risto from Philly?

 

[dgibb10]

Some GM should offer him 2.29 million (3rd round compensation) to test if Nil is a moron like Bowman.

These feel like very different scenarios.

Broberg was playing 11 minutes a night and mostly in the AHL when he got a 5 mill offer sheet.
Holloway again playing 11 minutes a night and had 9 points.

Neither of those guys had shown yet that they were quality NHLers.

Bourque had 40 points this year.

In the UFA market this offseason those 40 point players (who will be 30 instead of 24 btw), will likely cost 6 million dollars a year.

A normal extension for a player like bourque is already likely to be at or above 4.7 million with or without an offer sheet.

 

[SEALBound]

These feel like very different scenarios.

Broberg was playing 11 minutes a night and mostly in the AHL when he got a 5 mill offer sheet.
Holloway again playing 11 minutes a night and had 9 points.

Neither of those guys had shown yet that they were quality NHLers.

Bourque had 40 points this year.

In the UFA market this offseason those 40 point players (who will be 30 instead of 24 btw), will likely cost 6 million dollars a year.

A normal extension for a player like bourque is already likely to be at or above 4.7 million with or without an offer sheet.

Reason for the thread is - Dallas can't afford that. Many teams are so under the cap, $6mil for 2yrs to Bourque is doable.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Bourque wouldn't sign for $2.29 million anyway, so it doesn't matter whether the Stars could match it.

1 year at $4.5 million feels like the price he'd sign for plus it's just below the 1st+3rd rounder compensation.

 

[dgibb10]

Bourque wouldn't sign for $2.29 million anyway, so it doesn't matter whether the Stars could match it.

1 year at $4.5 million feels like the price he'd sign for plus it's just below the 1st+3rd rounder compensation.

If dallas has any intention of keeping Bourque at all, they are certainly prepared to pay him 4.5 mill already.

If not, he'll be traded before july 1st even hits.

This isn't Broberg where an AHLer/7th D is getting 4+ mill.

This is a 40 point roster player.

4.5 mill on a 104 mill capwould be a normal contract for him if not on the low end, not the kind of overpayment that makes an offer sheet work. Especially for dallas and bourque where he'd be an RFA again next year, it doesn't even provide him an incentive since it doesn't walk him to UFA, give him security, or give him a lot of money

eg 4 mill for a 7th D
2+ mill for a 4th line, 9 point forward,
6+ mill in a 83 mill cap for a 20 point forward.

 

[dgibb10]

Reason for the thread is - Dallas can't afford that. Many teams are so under the cap, $6mil for 2yrs to Bourque is doable.

If dallas isn't prepared or willing to pay their 20 goal 40 point RFA 4-6 mill a year, he'll be traded long before July 1st.

The broberg and holloway offer sheets worked because they paid nearly 7 mill for 2 guys playing 11 minutes a night and splitting time in the AHL.

KK was a 20 point guy and he got 6+ mill in a 83 mill cap world.


These kind of offer sheets would have potentially made sense last year. Not this year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If dallas has any intention of keeping Bourque at all, they are certainly prepared to pay him 4.5 mill already.

If not, he'll be traded before july 1st even hits.

This isn't Broberg where an AHLer/7th D is getting 4+ mill.

This is a 40 point roster player.

4.5 mill on a 104 mill capwould be a normal contract for him if not on the low end, not the kind of overpayment that makes an offer sheet work. Especially for dallas and bourque where he'd be an RFA again next year, it doesn't even provide him an incentive since it doesn't walk him to UFA, give him security, or give him a lot of money

eg 4 mill for a 7th D
2+ mill for a 4th line, 9 point forward,
6+ mill in a 83 mill cap for a 20 point forward.

They literally are not able to pay him $4.5 million without trading Robertson or Harley.

 

[hairylikebear]

I don't know if Bourque is a player you send an "unpalatable to the team" offer sheet to.

I'd send your 2nd back plus the NJD 3rd. I would also entertain something like send Koivunen over in place of either. He's what you would want from that 2nd or 3rd. I'd probably end up regretting it but I'd do your 2nd+Koivunen for the RFA rights.

I think I would take this unless Koivunen has really bad skating or something. This helps Dallas in enough ways (immediate cap + waiver ineligible player) that it offsets losing Bourque.

 

[dgibb10]

They literally are not able to pay him $4.5 million without trading Robertson or Harley.

They aren't going to be caught off guard and have their cap situation bamboozled because someone comes and offers around the same amount (or less) Bourques camp is likely already asking for.

Again, Edmonton got screwed because Edmonton was looking to give them 2 mill combined, they wanted 3 combined, and in the delay the blues gave them 7 combined.

That's 4-5 mill out of nowhere that Edmonton was not prepared to spend.


Again, maybe this would have worked last year when Dallas (like edmonton with Holloway) was trying to get Bourque pencilled in sub 1 mill if you came along with a 5 mill offer.

Because again, you need to come so far above a reasonable salary and what the team is expecting to have to pay for it to work.

What do you think Bourques current ask is from Dallas? What do you think Dallas is currently offering Bourque that a 4.5 mill deal vastly changes the picture for them?

If they don't think Bourque is worth keeping at 4.5 mill, he will be traded. Since Bourque is again, likely already asking for that much from Dallas.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think I would take this unless Koivunen has really bad skating or something. This helps Dallas in enough ways (immediate cap + waiver ineligible player) that it offsets losing Bourque.

Koivunen's issues aren't skating, it's more of a pace of play issue. It's a pretty common thing to see in Euro players, the extra half second they get in the Euro leagues or AHL lets them make plays and they have to adjust to the faster paced and smaller rinks in the NHL.

He's already a great PP player in the NHL, his playmaking is phenomenal there, but how much success he has at the NHL level really depends on how well he can adjust to the faster pace of play in the NHL. If he can make that adjustment, I have no doubts he'd be a 40-50 point middle-6 playmaker and PP2 QB. But that's a pretty big if, it's something that a ton of Euro players have failed to do in the past.

 

[hairylikebear]

Koivunen's issues aren't skating, it's more of a pace of play issue. It's a pretty common thing to see in Euro players, the extra half second they get in the Euro leagues or AHL lets them make plays and they have to adjust to the faster paced and smaller rinks in the NHL.

He's already a great PP player in the NHL, his playmaking is phenomenal there, but how much success he has at the NHL level really depends on how well he can adjust to the faster pace of play in the NHL. If he can make that adjustment, I have no doubts he'd be a 40-50 point middle-6 playmaker and PP2 QB. But that's a pretty big if, it's something that a ton of Euro players have failed to do in the past.

The Stars would ideally target someone faster for the bottom of the lineup because that's a big need right now, but at the same time it's Bourque we're trading here and not Harley.

I appreciate the scouting report - I agree he's a legit prospect and worth at least his draft position still. If the pace of play issues don't get fixed (they rarely do) he looks to have the skillset of a bottom 6 cycler with some versatility to move up the lineup. Not unlike Bourque.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

Reason for the thread is - Dallas can't afford that. Many teams are so under the cap, $6mil for 2yrs to Bourque is doable.

Dallas will be looking to sign him to the Kevin Labanc not so subtle cap circumention special

 

[Hunter368]

Jets would be interested but not sure these two teams would do a trade within the division

 

[DJIncognito]

Bourque
Seguin

For
Carlo 50% retained