Maurice Richard Trophy Tournament (1995-Present) Round 4: 2008 Alexander Ovechkin vs 1996 Mario Lemeiux

[blundluntman]

MATCHUP #2 (Round 4): Alexander Ovechkin (2008) vs Mario Lemieux (1996)

Alexander Ovechkin (2007-08):

Games Played	Goals	Even Strength Goals	Power Play Goals	League Wide Goals Per Game
82	65	43	22	2.78

Mario Lemieux (1995-96):

Games Played	Goals	Even Strength Goals	Power Play Goals	League Wide Goals Per Game
70	69	30	31	3.14

Round 4 Matchups:
24 Matthews vs 12 Stamkos (Still Active) Thread
08 Ovechkin vs 96 Lemieux

Round 1 Results
Round 2 Results
Round 3 Results

Click to read more...

 

[Regal]

Ovechkin played the games. If Lemieux scored 80 in 80 it might be him, but he only had 4 more goals in a much higher scoring season.

 

[Albatros]

Regarding league scoring, the Capitals played in the by far weakest division of the by far weaker conference in '08. To his credit Ovechkin scored also against other opponents, but nonetheless it was an easy schedule for him.

 

[Plural]

Hmm...I do think Lemieux might have been a tad better scorer that year. He did miss those games and Ovechkin did not. There is value in games played.

If we're talking strictly about a better campaign, I think Ovechkin takes this. That said, Lemieux was in my opinion, a better scorer. For the nature of the poll, I'm voting Ovechkin. But as a reminder I'd like to add that Lemieux was better.

 

[filinski77]

I'll bring the stats, and I'd love to hear some actual arguments for why Lemieux's season was better. (other than "ouh wow look at raw goals in isolation").

TLDR:
1) Using the actual goals, Ovechkin simply had a more dominant season than Lemieux did.
2) Using goals/gp (which always benefits the players who did not play all the games), Ovechkin and Lemieux are virtually tied across the board
3) Ovechkin was more dominant across different types of scoring, whereas Lemieux was more reliant on the Powerplay
4) Lemieux has significantly better elite teammates to help him vs. Ovi, who put on one of the best carrying jobs of all-time.
5) Ovechkin scored better vs the good teams in the league

1) Based on what actually happened: Ovechkin had a more dominant season vs. his peers than Lemieux did

Ovi	65​			Lemieux	69​
#2	52​	25%​		#2	62​	11%​
#3	50​	30%​		#3	55​	25%​
#5	43​	51%​		#5	51​	35%​
#10	40​	63%​		#10	47​	47%​
#20	32​	103%​		#20	39​	77%​
#30	29​	124%​		#30	34​	103%​

2) Based on what 'could' have happened, and pro-rate everybody's goal/gp to 82 games: They are almost completely identical.

	Goal/GP	82gp goals	% lead		Goal/GP	82gp goals	% lead
Ovi	0.793​	65			Lemieux	0.986​	81
#2	0.658​	54	21%​		#2	0.776​	64	27%​
#3	0.61​	50	30%​		#3	0.756​	62	30%​
#5	0.573​	47	38%​		#5	0.658​	54	50%​
#10	0.494​	41	61%​		#10	0.622​	51	59%​
#20	0.423​	35	87%​		#20	0.529​	43	86%​
#30	0.392​	32	102%​		#30	0.469​	38	110%​

3) Types of goals: Note that I don't care that Lemieux was fiending on the Powerplay, but I know others do.

	Ovi	Lemieux
ESG	1st	8th
PPG	1st	1st
GWG	1st	6th

4) Teammate support: Lemieux had 5 other point/gp players on his team, including Jagr and Ron Francis. Ovechkin essentially scored as many goals (65) as his next best teammate had points (69). Lemieux is obviously a better overall player, but he also played that season with a top-10 player of all-time, and a top-30 player of all-time.

5) Opponents played: Ovechkin played better vs. the better teams than he did vs. the poor teams. Lemieux was even (Still a good thing)

OVECHKIN	Goal/gp	82gp pace
Against top-half of league	0.84	69
Against bottom-half of league	0.75	61
LEMIEUX	Goal/gp	82gp pace
Against top-half of league	1.00	82
Against bottom-half of league	0.97	80

 

[jigglysquishy]

I think Ovechkin had a better goal scoring season, but Ron Francis is in no way a top 30 player of all time. He's not even a top 30 centre all time.

Calling him a top 100 hockey player all time is very generous.

 

[filinski77]

I think Ovechkin had a better goal scoring season, but Ron Francis is in no way a top 30 player of all time. He's not even a top 30 centre all time.

Calling him a top 100 hockey player all time is very generous.

You’re right, top-30 is exaggerated. At the same time, saying “top-100 is generous” for a guy that’s 5th all-time in points, 31st all-time in goals, has 7x top-10 Selke finishes (and a win) is likely an even larger exaggeration.

Regardless, my point stands. Francis was twice the player that anyone Ovi had in 2008 was. And that’s without getting into Jagr + the rest.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I'll bring the stats, and I'd love to hear some actual arguments for why Lemieux's season was better. (other than "ouh wow look at raw goals in isolation").

TLDR:
1) Using the actual goals, Ovechkin simply had a more dominant season than Lemieux did.
2) Using goals/gp (which always benefits the players who did not play all the games), Ovechkin and Lemieux are virtually tied across the board
3) Ovechkin was more dominant across different types of scoring, whereas Lemieux was more reliant on the Powerplay
4) Lemieux has significantly better elite teammates to help him vs. Ovi, who put on one of the best carrying jobs of all-time.
5) Ovechkin scored better vs the good teams in the league

1) Based on what actually happened: Ovechkin had a more dominant season vs. his peers than Lemieux did

Ovi	65​			Lemieux	69​
#2	52​	25%​		#2	62​	11%​
#3	50​	30%​		#3	55​	25%​
#5	43​	51%​		#5	51​	35%​
#10	40​	63%​		#10	47​	47%​
#20	32​	103%​		#20	39​	77%​
#30	29​	124%​		#30	34​	103%​

2) Based on what 'could' have happened, and pro-rate everybody's goal/gp to 82 games: They are almost completely identical.

	Goal/GP	82gp goals	% lead		Goal/GP	82gp goals	% lead
Ovi	0.793​	65			Lemieux	0.986​	81
#2	0.658​	54	21%​		#2	0.776​	64	27%​
#3	0.61​	50	30%​		#3	0.756​	62	30%​
#5	0.573​	47	38%​		#5	0.658​	54	50%​
#10	0.494​	41	61%​		#10	0.622​	51	59%​
#20	0.423​	35	87%​		#20	0.529​	43	86%​
#30	0.392​	32	102%​		#30	0.469​	38	110%​

3) Types of goals: Note that I don't care that Lemieux was fiending on the Powerplay, but I know others do.

	Ovi	Lemieux
ESG	1st	8th
PPG	1st	1st
GWG	1st	6th

4) Teammate support: Lemieux had 5 other point/gp players on his team, including Jagr and Ron Francis. Ovechkin essentially scored as many goals (65) as his next best teammate had points (69). Lemieux is obviously a better overall player, but he also played that season with a top-10 player of all-time, and a top-30 player of all-time.

5) Opponents played: Ovechkin played better vs. the better teams than he did vs. the poor teams. Lemieux was even (Still a good thing)

OVECHKIN	Goal/gp	82gp pace
Against top-half of league	0.84	69
Against bottom-half of league	0.75	61
LEMIEUX	Goal/gp	82gp pace
Against top-half of league	1.00	82
Against bottom-half of league	0.97	80

I agree with most of this (the main objection is the comment about Francis, which @jigglysquishy already replied to). The other thing that should be mentioned - Lemieux's per-game stats were probably inflated in 1996 because he mostly skipped back-to-back games (and his scoring declined in the relatively few back-to-back games that he actually played). Link

I think Ovechkin clearly had the best season. They were probably roughly even on a per game basis, but that's misleading, because Ovechkin played through everything, while Lemieux chose to give himself more rest.

 

[filinski77]

I agree with most of this (the main objection is the comment about Francis, which @jigglysquishy already replied to). The other thing that should be mentioned - Lemieux's per-game stats were probably inflated in 1996 because he mostly skipped back-to-back games (and his scoring declined in the relatively few back-to-back games that he actually played). Link

I think Ovechkin clearly had the best season. They were probably roughly even on a per game basis, but that's misleading, because Ovechkin played through everything, while Lemieux chose to give himself more rest.

I didn’t know about the skipping back to backs - great analysis.

Its interesting, cause as you and I have shown, actual results favor Ovi here, and per game is dead even (before considering your point about Lemieux purposefully not playing so as to stay fresh).

It’s interesting to see 0 substantive arguments for why Lemieux’s season was better, yet the poll is still so close. It’s hard NOT to say there isn’t some type of anti-Ovi agenda when people are voting against him and can’t even explain why with any sort of decent reason.

 

[DitchMarner]

I didn’t know about the skipping back to backs - great analysis.

Its interesting, cause as you and I have shown, actual results favor Ovi here, and per game is dead even (before considering your point about Lemieux purposefully not playing so as to stay fresh).

It’s interesting to see 0 substantive arguments for why Lemieux’s season was better, yet the poll is still so close. It’s hard NOT to say there isn’t some type of anti-Ovi agenda when people are voting against him and can’t even explain why with any sort of decent reason.

To be honest, Ovechkin seems quite popular on this board. He absolutely has his fierce critics (which is also true about Crosby and McDavid), but I don't think there is a large anti-Ovie contingent.

I think it's more a case that many are enamored with Lemieux (like Gretzky and Orr) and have a hard time imaging that a player other than Gretzky can realistically challenge one of his best seasons.


When it comes to goal scoring, however, I think Ovechkin '08 clearly has his '96 season beat. The reasons have been brought up and outlined. Mario had four more goals in a much higher-scoring season playing on a team with far more offensive talent and he was an inferior ES scorer. It seems quite straightforward unless you really put a lot of value in projections (even then, you can make a case for Ovechkin).