Maurice Richard Trophy Tournament (1995-Present) Final Round: 2012 Steven Stamkos vs 2008 Alexander Ovechkin

[blundluntman]

FINAL ROUND MATCHUP: Steven Stamkos (2012) vs Alexander Ovechkin (2008)

Steven Stamkos (2011-12):

Games Played	Goals	Even Strength Goals	Power Play Goals	League Wide Goals Per Game
82	60	48	12	2.73

Alexander Ovechkin (2007-08):

Games Played	Goals	Even Strength Goals	Power Play Goals	League Wide Goals Per Game
82	65	43	22	2.78

Round 1 Results
Round 2 Results
Round 3 Results
Round 4 Results

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[bobholly39]

Ovechkin

For what it's worth - I'd have had Stamkos 4th, behind both Matthews 2024 and Lemieux 96, so this is an easy matchup for me.

As for Ovechkin - not sure if I'd have him #1, but at least he's in the running.

 

[ESH]

Ovechkin

For what it's worth - I'd have had Stamkos 4th, behind both Matthews 2024 and Lemieux 96, so this is an easy matchup for me.

As for Ovechkin - not sure if I'd have him #1, but at least he's in the running.

Who would you have #1 then?

 

[bobholly39]

Who would you have #1 then?

I think Lemieux 96 would be my #1. I was going to make a pitch for Lemieux > Ovechkin in round 3, but by the time I saw the thread the voting was already lopsided so I didn't bother.

Also - I'd have liked to dig a bit deeper into Matthews 2024 vs Ovechkin 2008 if that had been head to head. I'm leaning towards Ovi being ahead, but I would have enjoyed the comparison.

Nothing against Stamkos 2012 really - a fantastic season, but he's definitely my #4. So it's a less compelling matchup for me is all.

 

[TheStatican]

I think Lemieux 96 would be my #1. I was going to make a pitch for Lemieux > Ovechkin in round 3, but by the time I saw the thread the voting was already lopsided so I didn't bother.

Same. The problem is recency bias, most of the voters were probably still in diapers in '96. It's difficult to try to convince someone of something they haven't seen in person, not worth the time to bother with it.

 

[tabness]

Stamkos here I'll crunch some numbers and post some clips later

 

[filinski77]

Voted Ovi.

Raw goals: 65>60 -> OVI

Adjusted goals: Ovi higher (72 to 68 per HR). Pretty negligible difference since league-wide goals were 2.78 vs. 2.73 (in Ovi's favor). Overall results show that league-wide scoring was essentially the same. #20 and #30 goal-scorers scored essentially the exact same.

Dominance vs. peers: Pretty close overall, Ovi with the stronger domination vs. #2, #20, #30. Stamkos more dominant vs #3 and #5. #10 is close enough with a 4% swing that I'm not bothered.

Ovi	65​		Stamkos	60​
#2	52​	25%​	#2	50​	20%​
#3	50​	30%​	#3	41​	46%​
#5	43​	51%​	#5	38​	58%​
#10	40​	63%​	#10	36​	67%​
#20	32​	103%​	#20	31​	94%​
#30	29​	124%​	#30	30​	100%​

Even-strength scoring: As noted earlier, I'm not bothered at all by ESG vs PPG, you need them all to win. But for anyone who wants to use ESG as a deciding factor (and ignore the overall goals), worth noting that Ovechkin and Stamkos were both a huge step above the league in Even-strength scoring.

Vs #2 essentially a wash. Vs. #3/5/10 Stamkos is definitely ahead, but Ovechkin pulls ahead when comparing #20 (small) and #30. Morale of the story being that it appears even-strength scoring was actually ~10% higher it looks like in 2012, so it's pretty close to even (even if slightly in Stamkos favor).

Ovi	43​		Stamkos	48​
#2	35​	23%​	#2	38​	26%​
#3	34​	26%​	#3	31​	55%​
#5	30​	43%​	#5	28​	71%​
#10	24​	79%​	#10	25​	92%​
#20	21​	105%​	#20	24​	100%​
#30	19​	126%​	#30	22​	118%​

 

[filinski77]

Also - I'd have liked to dig a bit deeper into Matthews 2024 vs Ovechkin 2008 if that had been head to head. I'm leaning towards Ovi being ahead, but I would have enjoyed the comparison.

Here you go: Pretty easily Ovechkin imo. Even if Matthews season is still close and an all-time season.

Raw goals: Matthews 69>65

Adjusted goals: Ovi 72>68 using HR. Using the numbers below with elite-player scoring (which HR does not factor in), scoring in 2024 was up by about 14-15% for elite players. Would adjust Ovi to 74 goals vs. Matthews 69.

Dominance vs peers: Easy Ovi. He is clearly ahead here.

Ovi	65​		Matthews	69​
#2	52​	25%​	#2	57​	21%​
#3	50​	30%​	#3	54​	28%​
#5	43​	51%​	#5	49​	41%​
#10	40​	63%​	#10	44​	57%​
#20	32​	103%​	#20	37​	86%​
#30	29​	124%​	#30	33​	109%​

Even-strength scoring: Once again, not anything I care much about, but Ovechkin's season was just as good even-strength wise as Matthews season was. Simply the ESG's were up by about 20-25% in 2024 compared to 2008.

Ovi	43​		Matthews	51​
#2	35​	23%​	#2	41​	24%​
#3	34​	26%​	#3	39​	31%​
#5	30​	43%​	#5	35​	46%​
#10	24​	79%​	#10	31​	65%​
#20	21​	105%​	#20	25​	104%​
#30	19​	126%​	#30	24​	113%​

Teammate support: Matthews simply had significantly more elite support.

Ovechkin	112​	Matthews	107​	107​
Backstrom	69​	Nylander	98​	98​
Green	56​	Marner	85​	85​
Kozlov	54​	Tavares	65​	65​

 

[Zuluss]

Very close seasons, statistically Stamkos looks as good as Ovechkin.

But in 2011/12 Stamkos had MSL, who was still good enough to win Art Ross in a weak year (which actually happened in the following season). Ovechkin in 2007/08 was a one-man show, his linemates were Victor Kozlov and rookie Backstrom.

 

[tabness]

points together Ovechkin

2008 111 total
nicklas backstrom         37 33.33%  28ev   9pp   0sh
viktor kozlov             29 26.13%  27ev   2pp   0sh
mike green                25 22.52%  12ev  13pp   0sh
michael nylander          18 16.22%   7ev  11pp   0sh
tom poti                  13 11.71%  10ev   3pp   0sh
alexander semin           12 10.81%   2ev  10pp   0sh
brooks laich              10  9.01%   4ev   6pp   0sh
jeff schultz               6  5.41%   6ev   0pp   0sh
brian pothier              5   4.5%   3ev   2pp   0sh
chris clark                5   4.5%   2ev   3pp   0sh
milan jurcina              5   4.5%   5ev   0pp   0sh
boyd gordon                4   3.6%   4ev   0pp   0sh
john erskine               4   3.6%   4ev   0pp   0sh
shaone morrisonn           4   3.6%   4ev   0pp   0sh
tomas fleischmann          4   3.6%   0ev   4pp   0sh
eric fehr                  3   2.7%   0ev   3pp   0sh
joe motzko                 2   1.8%   2ev   0pp   0sh
sergei fedorov             2   1.8%   0ev   2pp   0sh
steve eminger              2   1.8%   2ev   0pp   0sh
unassisted                 2   1.8%   2ev   0pp   0sh
david steckel              1   0.9%   1ev   0pp   0sh
matt pettinger             1   0.9%   1ev   0pp   0sh
olie kolzig                1   0.9%   1ev   0pp   0sh

points together Stamkos

2012 87 total
martin st. louis          33 37.93%  21ev  12pp   0sh
teddy purcell             26 29.89%  17ev   9pp   0sh
ryan malone               16 18.39%   8ev   8pp   0sh
steve downie              11 12.64%   9ev   2pp   0sh
vincent lecavalier        11 12.64%   5ev   6pp   0sh
marc-andre bergeron        9 10.34%   7ev   2pp   0sh
matt gilroy                9 10.34%   9ev   0pp   0sh
victor hedman              8   9.2%   7ev   1pp   0sh
brian lee                  6   6.9%   6ev   0pp   0sh
eric brewer                6   6.9%   3ev   3pp   0sh
brett clark                4   4.6%   4ev   0pp   0sh
unassisted                 4   4.6%   4ev   0pp   0sh
bruno gervais              3  3.45%   2ev   1pp   0sh
brendan mikkelson          2   2.3%   1ev   1pp   0sh
mathieu garon              2   2.3%   2ev   0pp   0sh
pavel kubina               2   2.3%   2ev   0pp   0sh
brett connolly             1  1.15%   1ev   0pp   0sh
dana tyrell                1  1.15%   1ev   0pp   0sh
dominic moore              1  1.15%   1ev   0pp   0sh
jt wyman                   1  1.15%   1ev   0pp   0sh
nate thompson              1  1.15%   1ev   0pp   0sh

I don't really think it's as cut and dry as Stamkos had St. Louis as a big advantage given the drop off after him, especially in terms of defensemen. There's also Bruce Boudreau vs Guy Boucher coaching styles, although to be fair Ovechkin scored a ton with Hanlon as well.

situation of goal scoring
• blowout: goal scored means leading by 4 or more
• insurance: goal scored means leading by 2 or 3
• go ahead: goal scored means leading by 1
• tie: goal scored means game tied
• comeback: goal scored means trailing by 1
• rally: goal scored means trailing by 2 or more

Ovechkin

2008 65 total
blowout:       2  3.08%
insurance:    21 32.31%
go ahead:     21 32.31%
tie:          11 16.92%
comeback:      9 13.85%
rally:         1  1.54%
first:         9 13.85%
second:        9 13.85%

Stamkos

2012 54 total
blowout:       3  5.56%
insurance:    11 20.37%
go ahead:     19 35.19%
tie:           9 16.67%
comeback:      9 16.67%
rally:         3  5.56%
first:         9 16.67%
second:        7 12.96%

The even strength numbers are also further apart because "even strength" in the new NHL has tons of 4 on 4 situations and more empty net goals for and against and all that stuff that counts as even strength.

5 on 5 goals Stamkos put home 41 with a huge drop to Malkin with 31 and then guys in the mid twenties whereas Ovechkin got 34 and had Brad Boyes with 30 and Iginla with 29 before guys in the mid twenties.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

www.naturalstattrick.com

Ovechkin played almost 2 more minutes of powerplay time than Stamkos, whereas Stamkos played only 30 seconds more even strength time than Ovechkin, so it isn't just something with ice time/opportunities. Stamkos was just a better even strength/5 on 5 scorer.

That being said, Ovechkin did do better in road even strength goals 24 to 18 for Stamkos, although the caveat about "even strength" probably applies here and I would guess that 5 on 5 would be closer (so like Stamkos had none of his 2 empty netters on the road, Ovechkin had 2 of his 3).

So yeah, I get why Ovechkin 2008 gets a lot of love as the best goal scoring year of the new NHL, it's definitely deserved.

But I just feel Stamkos has become an underrated player, especially with what he was at his peak as compared to him after his leg injury being eclipsed by Kucherov and what not. He also just happens to be one of my favorites of the new NHL and seems to be one of the real good guys in hockey.

 

[Regal]

Very close seasons, statistically Stamkos looks as good as Ovechkin.

But in 2011/12 Stamkos had MSL, who was still good enough to win Art Ross in a weak year (which actually happened in the following season). Ovechkin in 2007/08 was a one-man show, his linemates were Victor Kozlov and rookie Backstrom.

Feels like a bit much to just focus on St.Louis’ potential Art Ross ability when he had a down year and was only 18th in scoring. Rookie Backstrom was 40th in scoring, but the difference between St.Louis and the 40th place scorer in ‘12 was only 9 points. Backstrom also got better as the year went along. He was 17th in league scoring from December 1st on. When you add in that Stamkos didn’t have an offensive defenseman close to Mike Green, and I don’t see teammates as a significant factor here. I think Stamkos was more of a straight shooter in other years but he was scoring in a ton of different ways that year regardless of who he was with