Maturation and evolution causing movement in Kings Spring Top 20 Prospects

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The more relevant point about LaDue is that he is 23 years old already. So, is Forbort and Gravel. LaDue is just 6 months younger than these two.

That happens when you draft a 19-20 yr old in the 6th round. It just goes to show you the rare player that gets to the NHL in 1-2 seasons. Most take 3-5 and I'm sure gms take this into consideration when drafting US college kids. *Unless you can convince them to leave early. Which they did try with LaDue. It did take both Gravel and Forbort 5+ years to get their first game after being drafted.

An interesting comparison may be LaDue and Ebert. Both late round 2012 draftees drafted out of different leagues. Curious which one is ahead of the other, developmental wise.
 
Just because you are drafted two years later than most in your draft class doesn't mean you will breaking into the NHL two years later as well. Often the older drafted prospects succeed or flop quicker after being drafted as they are further along physically and it's a quicker process to identify if their talents will translate over to the pros and later the NHL.
 
Also, Steven Johnson will be 22 in June. Two years older than some of the other players in his draft class. If he ever makes it, he could be 26+ years old.



Nic Dowd was drafted in 09, went 4 years of college, debuted as a pro at 24. Some guys do take a longer route from older drafting...still good players just a much smaller window to make an impact.
 
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Another indispensable prospects report - thank you.

Kempe is a KEEPER (Dean) because he's the only one the Kings have. And he's very talented offensively, which is exactly what the Kings need.

Otherwise, there are a lot of potentially useful players in the system. And they are being developed properly which adds value to all of them.

Skim over some other team's lists. There isn't a tremendous difference in the middle 20 or so teams. Considering the odds against all of them, except fot the elites, the Kings 2nd, 3rd, 4th round draft picks have as good a chance as any to become good NHLers.
 
If you can draft 2nd rounders and later to be NHLers and parlay those average/above average NHLers into top-10 picks, though, you do it.

I think the Kings drafting and development is what's going to keep us afloat for that reason--they hit so much in the late rounds they can kick those picks and players out for better assets (i.e. a 13th overall pick isn't nothing, but an undrafted goaltender and a 5th round pick plus that pick for THE league's premier power forward not named Benn is excellent asset management).
 
Great minds think alike Jason. I think your top 10 and mine are pretty much the same. While Mersch, Dowd, Gravel and Forbort are obviously ahead of Kempe right now in terms of their professional accomplishments and play, Kempe may ultimately be the best player with his speed and quick release. I sure hope Dowd gets a shot at the 3C or 4C spot next season. There is no one else signed professionally by the Kings not currently playing with the Kings that is even close to the passer and creative play maker that Dowd is. In fact not many players even on the Kings roster have his vision. Solid in the face-off circle and his own zone too. Since Shore has struggled offensively, it just makes sense to give him a serious look.

I agree that MacDermid has been surprising, also since the suspension he looks like he has lost some of his physical spark for fear of issues with the league. If he can improve his foot work and speed, and find a happy physical medium, he may be an effective NHL 5-6 guy.

I'm also a bit disappointed in Leslie. You can see some outstanding speed with a hard shot, but he seems to be snake bit with pucks bouncing over his stick at the point and his risky defensive play. Hopefully next season his playing time increases to get a better look.

I think we were all hoping for more from Brodzinski and Zykov, and with experience hopefully we will see more consistency. Based upon their actual play so far, I give Brodzinski a slight edge. He has a better shot and release, that is for sure. Zykov is faster with some pretty good moves, but still tries a bit too much one on one play. Mersch and Kempe also guilty of that a bit.

The good news is we have 4 players that should be able to play in the NHL right now if needed. The bad news is our goalie development is pretty much out to lunch with the Bartosak fiasco.
 
If you can draft 2nd rounders and later to be NHLers and parlay those average/above average NHLers into top-10 picks, though, you do it.

I think the Kings drafting and development is what's going to keep us afloat for that reason--they hit so much in the late rounds they can kick those picks and players out for better assets (i.e. a 13th overall pick isn't nothing, but an undrafted goaltender and a 5th round pick plus that pick for THE league's premier power forward not named Benn is excellent asset management).

The drafting and development has been great but the real concern is they haven't been able to land an impact player that wasn't a top 10 pick.

This drafting team has been largely in place since the 2007 draft (2006 was done under DT's old scouts, DL cleared house after that). If you ignore top 10 picks, the best player we have drafted is Wayne Simmonds, Tyler Toffoli, Alec Martinez and Tanner Pearson. Good players (very good in Toffoli's case) but beyond that it's 3rd liners and solid depth pieces. We need more of the core talents coming or we'll be falling back to being a bubble team.

Our top 20 list reflects this. You have Kempe and after that there's not one guy that looks like a pretty good bet to be a core player. Some might, like Zykov or LaDue, but they have a lot of question marks.

I do question if we'd be 25th overall like JL suggested. We just don't have much impact pieces. Keeping our 1sts would be a good start.
 
The drafting and development has been great but the real concern is they haven't been able to land an impact player that wasn't a top 10 pick.

This drafting team has been largely in place since the 2007 draft (2006 was done under DT's old scouts, DL cleared house after that). If you ignore top 10 picks, the best player we have drafted is Wayne Simmonds, Tyler Toffoli, Alec Martinez and Tanner Pearson. Good players (very good in Toffoli's case) but beyond that it's 3rd liners and solid depth pieces. We need more of the core talents coming or we'll be falling back to being a bubble team.

Our top 20 list reflects this. You have Kempe and after that there's not one guy that looks like a pretty good bet to be a core player. Some might, like Zykov or LaDue, but they have a lot of question marks.

I do question if we'd be 25th overall like JL suggested. We just don't have much impact pieces. Keeping our 1sts would be a good start.

If you don't consider Toffoli an impact player we'll have to disagree. Muzzin as well, Jones as well. Not everything has to happen in the top 10 of the draft imo. I know what you're saying about 'impact' pieces in general and they're more likely to be 1sts --but if your core is in its prime (or just exiting like some of our forwards), you're probably not going to be in position to snag a REAL impact player, so if you can parlay late 1sts and 2nds into CURRENT roster players rather than MAYBE SOMETIME DOWN THE LINE roster players in order to supplement your current cup-contending roster, I think it's a no-brainer.

AT some point that'll bite us in the butt like how it eventually caught up to Detroit, but how long were they competing with first round picks? They realized that 30th overall wasn't all that different from mid-2nd-round and benefited greatly. WE're doing the same by finding the King, Martinez, Mersch type player outside the first round. YEs, they're supplemental rather than impact players. But looking back, does Marko Dano save us now? Does Klefbom (ugh, maybe now, lol)? It's much more to our benefit at this point to 'fast forward' a guy a few years.
 
Great minds think alike Jason. I think your top 10 and mine are pretty much the same. While Mersch, Dowd, Gravel and Forbort are obviously ahead of Kempe right now in terms of their professional accomplishments and play, Kempe may ultimately be the best player with his speed and quick release. I sure hope Dowd gets a shot at the 3C or 4C spot next season. There is no one else signed professionally by the Kings not currently playing with the Kings that is even close to the passer and creative play maker that Dowd is. In fact not many players even on the Kings roster have his vision. Solid in the face-off circle and his own zone too. Since Shore has struggled offensively, it just makes sense to give him a serious look.

I agree that MacDermid has been surprising, also since the suspension he looks like he has lost some of his physical spark for fear of issues with the league. If he can improve his foot work and speed, and find a happy physical medium, he may be an effective NHL 5-6 guy.

I'm also a bit disappointed in Leslie. You can see some outstanding speed with a hard shot, but he seems to be snake bit with pucks bouncing over his stick at the point and his risky defensive play. Hopefully next season his playing time increases to get a better look.

I think we were all hoping for more from Brodzinski and Zykov, and with experience hopefully we will see more consistency. Based upon their actual play so far, I give Brodzinski a slight edge. He has a better shot and release, that is for sure. Zykov is faster with some pretty good moves, but still tries a bit too much one on one play. Mersch and Kempe also guilty of that a bit.

The good news is we have 4 players that should be able to play in the NHL right now if needed. The bad news is our goalie development is pretty much out to lunch with the Bartosak fiasco.

Spot on on the bolded parts.

I am a Zykov guy for sure because you see flashes of some really good puck pursuit, 1v1 skill, and just all around buzz in the offensive zone. Nevertheless, he MUST continue to work on consistency, making simple plays versus fancy plays, and also (Like Brodzinski) the consistency shift to shift and game to game. Rookie woes for sure. Kempe has em too.
 
One guy that I nearly put on this list but he didn't make the cut was Andrew Crescenzi.

Guy is EXTREMELY underrated.

The offense is not something he will ever be known for, but he is a really intelligent player, and nails defensively. I could see him as a legit defensive specialist, physical 4C in the NHL ala Colin Fraser. Wins draws, kills penalties. Lot of little things. If I had a 21, it would be he and Mistele duking it out. I wanted to give him some sort of credit but it was hard due to some of the upside of guys in that 15-20 range.

Still, Cresc has been a really nice surprise this year for me.
 
Nic Dowd was drafted in 09, went 4 years of college, debuted as a pro at 24. Some guys do take a longer route from older drafting...still good players just a much smaller window to make an impact.

Oh, it wasn't meant as a negative to Johnson or Dowd or Forbort. My point (good or bad) was that even at 26, Johnson can still become a quality NHL player. Not every good NHL player begins their career at 20 or 22. Even at 25, 26 or even 27 be an effective NHL player.
 
Oh, it wasn't meant as a negative to Johnson or Dowd or Forbort. My point (good or bad) was that even at 26, Johnson can still become a quality NHL player. Not every good NHL player begins their career at 20 or 22. Even at 25, 26 or even 27 be an effective NHL player.

Very true
 
If you don't consider Toffoli an impact player we'll have to disagree.

I specifically stated Toffoli in the very next paragraph and stated he's a very good player. Impact player? Jury is still out. He could be, or he could top out as a Mike Cammalleri, and no, I don't view Cammy as an impact player. Impact players are the cornerstone pieces and right now, I don't think Toffoli has proven nearly enough to be the face of the forward ranks post-Kopitar.

Muzzin as well, Jones as well.

Neither was drafted, which was my point. Muzzin actually was drafted by another team and then we got him after.

Not everything has to happen in the top 10 of the draft imo.
Neither do I, hence why I said we haven't landed an impact player outside the top 10. I know it's hard beyond the top 10 to do but that's whats made Detroit so good for so long. They haven't had a top 10 pick in 25 years.

I know what you're saying about 'impact' pieces in general and they're more likely to be 1sts --but if your core is in its prime (or just exiting like some of our forwards), you're probably not going to be in position to snag a REAL impact player,

Detroit.

Also, other teams have done so, including us if you look back in our history. We have one between the pipes right now.

so if you can parlay late 1sts and 2nds into CURRENT roster players rather than MAYBE SOMETIME DOWN THE LINE roster players in order to supplement your current cup-contending roster, I think it's a no-brainer.

It is and isn't. At somepoint you go to far with it and set yourself up for a huge rebuild. Look at Toronto in the late 1990's and early part of this decade. traded 1st after 1st after good prospect after good prospect to chase a cup dream. They've been outside the playoffs for what now, 11 out of 12 years counting this one? I know it's not all about trading away good picks and prospects, but they gutted themselves doing that. Yes, go for a cup is important to embrace, but so is keeping reality in check and not going all in every year. Detroit doesn't and because of that they have kept some picks and prospects, which is reflecting now in another good young core coming up through the ranks.

AT some point that'll bite us in the butt like how it eventually caught up to Detroit,

it didn't catch up to Detroit is my point. They may have not been cup favorites the past few years but they have been in the dance and competitive every year, something we of all teams should know is all you need.

but how long were they competing with first round picks? They realized that 30th overall wasn't all that different from mid-2nd-round and benefited greatly. WE're doing the same by finding the King, Martinez, Mersch type player outside the first round. YEs, they're supplemental rather than impact players. But looking back, does Marko Dano save us now? Does Klefbom (ugh, maybe now, lol)? It's much more to our benefit at this point to 'fast forward' a guy a few years.

That's assuming we would have picked those same players, which we likely wouldn't have, especially in Dano's case. LA goes for the likes of Tanner Pearson, who was picked at the same spot as Dano a year earlier. Pearson doesn't save us but he gives us a legit top nine guy with top six upside. Wouldn't it be nice to another Pearson in the system right now with Gaborik out to help offset some of the offense, rather than hoping for Brown/King/etc. to do more than they are capable of?

Also while we're taking King's and Mersch's -and I like those guys, don't get me wrong- Detroit's getting Nyquist's and Tatar's. That's why they are able to succeed for so long. If we don't find a few more scoring options we aren't going to be competitive for long. As good as our list is in terms of foot soldiers, eventually you need some elite talent and we are sorely lacking in that.
 
I specifically stated Toffoli in the very next paragraph and stated he's a very good player. Impact player? Jury is still out. He could be, or he could top out as a Mike Cammalleri, and no, I don't view Cammy as an impact player. Impact players are the cornerstone pieces and right now, I don't think Toffoli has proven nearly enough to be the face of the forward ranks post-Kopitar.

Neither was drafted, which was my point. Muzzin actually was drafted by another team and then we got him after.

Neither do I, hence why I said we haven't landed an impact player outside the top 10. I know it's hard beyond the top 10 to do but that's whats made Detroit so good for so long. They haven't had a top 10 pick in 25 years.

Detroit.

Also, other teams have done so, including us if you look back in our history. We have one between the pipes right now.

It is and isn't. At somepoint you go to far with it and set yourself up for a huge rebuild. Look at Toronto in the late 1990's and early part of this decade. traded 1st after 1st after good prospect after good prospect to chase a cup dream. They've been outside the playoffs for what now, 11 out of 12 years counting this one? I know it's not all about trading away good picks and prospects, but they gutted themselves doing that. Yes, go for a cup is important to embrace, but so is keeping reality in check and not going all in every year. Detroit doesn't and because of that they have kept some picks and prospects, which is reflecting now in another good young core coming up through the ranks.

it didn't catch up to Detroit is my point. They may have not been cup favorites the past few years but they have been in the dance and competitive every year, something we of all teams should know is all you need.

That's assuming we would have picked those same players, which we likely wouldn't have, especially in Dano's case. LA goes for the likes of Tanner Pearson, who was picked at the same spot as Dano a year earlier. Pearson doesn't save us but he gives us a legit top nine guy with top six upside. Wouldn't it be nice to another Pearson in the system right now with Gaborik out to help offset some of the offense, rather than hoping for Brown/King/etc. to do more than they are capable of?

Also while we're taking King's and Mersch's -and I like those guys, don't get me wrong- Detroit's getting Nyquist's and Tatar's. That's why they are able to succeed for so long. If we don't find a few more scoring options we aren't going to be competitive for long. As good as our list is in terms of foot soldiers, eventually you need some elite talent and we are sorely lacking in that.

Okay--Nyquist was drafted in 2008; can't tell yet but Brodzy could be that guy. But if he's not, I'm willing to bet we get one at SOME point in the next 8 years given our track record. And Tatar was drafted like Toffoli. I don't see a 'problem' here. And we MAY have another Pearson in the system in Kempe, or maybe even Zykov (stretch).

I don't think I fundamentally disagree with you. My point is only that if you can parlay those picks that are futures into CURRENT roster options, and those current roster options stay, what's the real difference? This upcoming draft being so thin on picks is probably going to hurt--but i also wouldn't be surprised for us to make some moves to get some more picks (d prospects we have that are redundant, for example). And that, like Detroit, we have the luxury of time with some of our top players before we need to replace them with more impact players. I have to disagree though that it matters that they're 'drafted' vs. picked up as a free agent signing, a little hard to view signing Jones, Muzzin as if they don't' count because we didn't actually draft them. I'd actually count on us doing more of that this offseason.

Let's also not forget that until the lockout Detroit could have bought anyone they wanted.

I wholly agree with the last point that at SOME point you need elite talent--but my point is that that's a crapshoot beyond the top 10 even for a team like Detroit who benefited from Euro scouting at a time when it wasn't happening for everyone. Unless DL can find a new gem (China! but really, maybe USHL or college, like Connor or Larkin), we're just going to have to pray for a coup like Jamie Benn, otherwise we'll have to draft a kid with warts enough to make them fall from the top 10 (Toffoli) and hope they can be top 6.
 
I specifically stated Toffoli in the very next paragraph and stated he's a very good player. Impact player? Jury is still out. He could be, or he could top out as a Mike Cammalleri, and no, I don't view Cammy as an impact player. Impact players are the cornerstone pieces and right now, I don't think Toffoli has proven nearly enough to be the face of the forward ranks post-Kopitar.

<snip>

That's assuming we would have picked those same players, which we likely wouldn't have, especially in Dano's case. LA goes for the likes of Tanner Pearson, who was picked at the same spot as Dano a year earlier. Pearson doesn't save us but he gives us a legit top nine guy with top six upside. Wouldn't it be nice to another Pearson in the system right now with Gaborik out to help offset some of the offense, rather than hoping for Brown/King/etc. to do more than they are capable of?

Also while we're taking King's and Mersch's -and I like those guys, don't get me wrong- Detroit's getting Nyquist's and Tatar's. That's why they are able to succeed for so long. If we don't find a few more scoring options we aren't going to be competitive for long. As good as our list is in terms of foot soldiers, eventually you need some elite talent and we are sorely lacking in that.

Excellent, excellent points, though I would broaden the definition of impact player beyond face-of-the-franchise player. Toffoli is, in my definition, an impact player right now. Otherwise, I pretty much agree with everything said.

I don't see any prospects in our system that I can confidently project as a Top 6 player. No, not even Kempe. Whenever the first thing I see mentioned about a player is his speed and not his game-changing impact/ability to score goals, I'm cautious in my optimism. We have a number of potential fourth-line players, but even our current goal-scoring leader Mersch projects as topping out at the 3rd line.
 
Excellent, excellent points, though I would broaden the definition of impact player beyond face-of-the-franchise player. Toffoli is, in my definition, an impact player right now. Otherwise, I pretty much agree with everything said.

I don't see any prospects in our system that I can confidently project as a Top 6 player. No, not even Kempe. Whenever the first thing I see mentioned about a player is his speed and not his game-changing impact/ability to score goals, I'm cautious in my optimism. We have a number of potential fourth-line players, but even our current goal-scoring leader Mersch projects as topping out at the 3rd line.

But that's because our prospects that DID are current top six players.

Toffoli, drafted 2010, already a top six very good player.
Pearson, drafted 2012, already a very good top six player.

No, we don't have any real blue chippers, but raise your hand if you thought either of those guys were going to play major roles in our 2nd cup.

Kempe is a wild card, I agree. Mersch looks like a player and his biggest problem is workable (foot speed). Dowd is criminally underrated. Gravel looks like he's gonna stick at some point. Zykov, Cernak, Brodz. Amadio is destroying a bunch of blue chippers in OHL scoring. Dergachyov is a ****ing steamroller with Evgeny Artyukhin size and hands.

I'm not pretending we have a spectacular prospect pool, but it's like our home team fans are sleeping on guys we know will be players at least with an opportunity to be bigtime.
 
But that's because our prospects that DID are current top six players.

Toffoli, drafted 2010, already a top six very good player.
Pearson, drafted 2012, already a very good top six player.

No, we don't have any real blue chippers, but raise your hand if you thought either of those guys were going to play major roles in our 2nd cup.

Kempe is a wild card, I agree. Mersch looks like a player and his biggest problem is workable (foot speed). Dowd is criminally underrated. Gravel looks like he's gonna stick at some point. Zykov, Cernak, Brodz. Amadio is destroying a bunch of blue chippers in OHL scoring. Dergachyov is a ****ing steamroller with Evgeny Artyukhin size and hands.

I'm not pretending we have a spectacular prospect pool, but it's like our home team fans are sleeping on guys we know will be players at least with an opportunity to be bigtime.

THAT is the biggest thing.

I remember reading a quote from, it might have been Lombardi, about how drafting a third liner in the first round is actually pretty good. You got an NHL player after all. You'll take that.

A lot of these guys, heck, almost ALL of these guys, will not be top line or maybe even regular top-six players in the NHL. But honestly, all of them have some really good projectable NHL skillsets in some capacity. Auger and Mersch can be King-esque players. Zykov and Kempe have what it takes to be top-9 compliments if all things pan out. Cernak, MacDermid, Lintuniemi, Gravel all have the capability being bottom pair at the NHL. As smart as he is, Dowd could be a 4C on about 10 teams in the NHL right now probably, and Crescenzi looks like he could be a decent 4C in the near future.

There are no high high end guys, which hurts the overall quality of the pipeline. However, there are some really useful players in there that are just as important as big time prospects when you get right down to it.
 
We do have prospects that could turn out to be solid fourth-line or third-pair players and I am excited about the players we have to fill out those roles. I did think that Toffoli would have an impact in the 2014 playoffs, and maybe to an extent, Pearson, though not to the extent that he did have. I was high on Toffoli and Pearson in Manchester, but then I was high on our prospects. I have to credit Kings17 and Herby, though, for helping my thinking to evolve, and hopefully move away from an overoptimistic view of our players and prospects to one more based on numbers and trends. Well, I hope at least it's slowly trending toward a more realistic appraisal of our players' potential NHL impacts than what I had before.
 
It's okay to be realistic but hopeful. If anything, that's what I"m saying--for this particular roster, if you can move say, a 2nd round pick for a long term d-solution, isn't that what you're trying to do with a 2nd round pick anyway?
 
Yes, I'd take a long-term solution in exchange for a 2nd. Well said.

I'm a big fan of your optimism, Brad. I'm a pretty optimistic person myself generally, so lately I've been surprised to see how many of my opinions/projections have turned out to be wrong. I'm not as much of a genius as I thought, apparently. Sigh.
 
:laugh:

It's hard NOT to be optimistic with how this team hits on so many draft picks. I forget the target percentage you're going for by round--maybe someone can help here--but when nearly one entire draft (2010) is in the NHL and just about every player we've gotten since then is looking like at least a bottom rung NHLer, and since we don't NEED the uber-talent at this exact moment (who drafted would displace Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli, etc.?), it's important to realize that we are absolutely loaded with depth options that are at least assets to other teams who struggle to develop their own.

Funny enough, it's been our first rounders that are the concern. Forbort, Hickey, Teubert, Schenn...
 
To much to quote since my last post, so I'll just sum up my opinion of what's been said like this.

'Hitting' with a pick is a variable. Yes, it's great to get a guy that can even play in the NHL and yes, on average a 1st rounder pans out to be a 3rd liner/bottom pairing guy on the average, obviously depending on where you are selecting. As well on average, each subsequent round will see that average decrease.

That said, you absolutely have to rise above that on occasion. A team filled with 3rd liners/bottom pairing defensemen isn't going to win any cups. In the salary cap world, you have to depend on homegrown (IE drafted and developed) talent more than ever, simply because that talent typically is cheaper in terms of salary than free agency, or assets in term of trades.

if you think of your core as your top six forwards, top four defensemen and top netminder, that's 11 players. For the Kings, our top six forwards in 2015-2016 based on ice time per game as per NHL.com are: Kopitar, Lucic, Toffoli, Carter, Brown and Gaborik. Our top four defensemen are: Doughty, Muzzin, Martinez and McNabb. Our goaltender is of course Quick.

So if you view that as our core, that means six of those 11 positions are supplied via the draft (Kopitar, Toffoli, Brown, Doughty, Martinez and Quick). All six were drafted between 2003 and 2010, or eight drafts.

Now if you look at our drafting over the past eight drafts, do we have six core guys? I doubt it. We have Toffoli, Pearson should be able to get there, Doughty is counted in there since he was eight drafts ago so technically he makes that cut by a year. Beyond that we have the list of prospects posted here by JL. Kempe has the upside to make that cut and I think so does Amadio, but neither is a guarantee. Really neither is Pearson yet, we should wait for a 20 goal and/or 40 point season before calling him a core guy.

There's just not enough in the pipeline to replace even the home developed portion of the core, nevermind the fact we don't have the assets to keep trading for the likes of Carter, Lucic, Gaborik, etc.

We need to draft better in terms of high end skill and I won't buy any line about us needing better picks to do so. Half of the core we drafted came outside of the first round (Toffoli, A-Mart, and Quick).

Also, while I like Brodzinski, no way do I see him at Toffoli upside. Compare where each was at the same age. At 22 (and six months) Brodzinski is on pace for a 27 point AHL season. Toffoli was fresh off a 29 point NHL rookie season and a 14 point playoff run and getting ready for a 20 goal NHL season. I know development isn't linear but Brodzinski has a huge leap to make to even reach the NHL, nevermind Toffoli.
 

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