Speculation: Matthews' Big Summer Decision

[centipede2233]

If he wanted to pull the ultimate Heel move

He doesn't sign with Toronto in the summer and signs with Boston in 2024 Summer.

Would suck so bad, but also be funny in a painful way.

Bergeron/Krejci will be gone by 2024 summer

Capspace says hi

 

[kevsh]

The "He's staying" crowd need to look at Tavares.

People leave for smaller cities and less successful playoff teams when leaving means going home.

How many, roughly?

And we're not just talking smaller city and less successful, we're talking an elite franchise (see ROR's quotes the other day about what MLSE provides its players) that is a top 5ish team in the league, versus a perennially bad one that doesn't have an arena and is paying almost as much salary to their LTIR as roster players.

I mean, sure if Austin really, really wants to go home and that part trumps every other part of the decision then I guess he will. But as a competitive guy who clearly likes it in Toronto (minus the cold) I can't see him going to Arizona.

Dallas, Vegas, LA? That's a different conversation, but my money is still by far on him re-signing in Toronto even if this another disappointing playoffs.

 

[Rob Brown]

The "He's staying" crowd need to look at Tavares.

People leave for smaller cities and less successful playoff teams when leaving means going home.

Tavares was really the exception, not the rule.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

How many, roughly?

And we're not just talking smaller city and less successful, we're talking an elite franchise (see ROR's quotes the other day about what MLSE provides its players) that is a top 5ish team in the league, versus a perennially bad one that doesn't have an arena and is paying almost as much salary to their LTIR as roster players.

I mean, sure if Austin really, really wants to go home and that part trumps every other part of the decision then I guess he will. But as a competitive guy who clearly likes it in Toronto (minus the cold) I can't see him going to Arizona.

Dallas, Vegas, LA? That's a different conversation, but my money is still by far on him re-signing in Toronto even if this another disappointing playoffs.

Let's not try to make the Leafs into an elite franchise, the truth is the Leafs have had zero meaningful success for decades...a factor that Matthews knows as well as anyone.

Matthews knows he can go south and not only be home...but live the life of the greatest Mexican in NHL history, the premier NHL ambassador to millions not just in the US and Mexico...but pretty much all of the Americas.

 

[Djp]

I think it is 90% likely that Matthews re-signs in Toronto.

Maybe an outside 10% chance he wants to go to LA

For those who like to make the MATTHEWS TO ARIZONA jokes, I really don't see him going there.

1. They aren't good
2. They have no facilities / arena
3. They don't have actual cash to pay him
4. Matthews definitely craves the spotlight / stardom.

yet everyone talks of Toronto/ s Ontario coming to Toronto as UFAs.

How many, roughly?

And we're not just talking smaller city and less successful, we're talking an elite franchise (see ROR's quotes the other day about what MLSE provides its players) that is a top 5ish team in the league, versus a perennially bad one that doesn't have an arena and is paying almost as much salary to their LTIR as roster players.

I mean, sure if Austin really, really wants to go home and that part trumps every other part of the decision then I guess he will. But as a competitive guy who clearly likes it in Toronto (minus the cold) I can't see him going to Arizona.

Dallas, Vegas, LA? That's a different conversation, but my money is still by far on him re-signing in Toronto even if this another disappointing playoffs.

I don’t see him staying in Canada.

him being in the US will increase his marketing potential big time. He will earn far more money and be on US national TV broadcasts if the team he’s on is good, even if not a cup favorite. Especially Chicago.

him going to Phoenix doesn’t spark an arena getting built?

he can go just about anywhere in the ststes. The question is who will have the cap space.

 

[sennysensen]

If Matthews says he wants to test free agency next summer, will consider signing with Leafs, I don't see the Leafs trading him.

Next year might be the Leafs' best shot at the cup, assuming Boston isn't as insanely stacked as this year.

The Leafs wouldn't trade their 1/2 best player which would drastically lower their chance at winning the cup next year, they'd rather take the risk of losing him next summer.

Teams' prime window of contention doesn't last forever. I'm not saying the Leafs will decline a ton in 2-3 years, but next season should be their peak.

 

[General Fanager]

Capspace says hi

The Bruins have enough UFAs coming off the books in the next 2 years to make it work. Also for a player at that level. You make whatever moves needed to make room for him.


My guess is L.A., Rangers or he stays in Toronto.

If Matthews says he wants to test free agency next summer, will consider signing with Leafs, I don't see the Leafs trading him.

Next year might be the Leafs' best shot at the cup, assuming Boston isn't as insanely stacked as this year.

The Leafs wouldn't trade their 1/2 best player which would drastically lower their chance at winning the cup next year, they'd rather take the risk of losing him next summer.

Teams' prime window of contention doesn't last forever. I'm not saying the Leafs will decline a ton in 2-3 years, but next season should be their peak.

I get the whole going for it thing but that would kill the franchise for years after that. To lose a player at that level for nothing....its scary to even think about.

They should make a Fla/Cal type deal and hopefully they end up like Fla and not Calgary

 

[Legion34]

What is an interesting feature of Matthews potential trade is that he is only owed 750k after July 1

Literally any team could fit him in with retention.

1.) you could Launder him through Arizona or chicago
For 375k in real cash and get him. For 5.8 million

2.) Toronto could retain and another team could double retain for 2.9 million. I don’t Toronto would retain 5.8 but they may retain 2 or something

That would keep LA Vegas and Dallas at the table.

 

[TS Quint]

The entire team including the core fell apart. At least against Tampa, they competed every inch of the ice and the refs caused the difference. But even last year the core only took control of game 5. And then they disappeared.

Pretending the Leafs only lose to top teams is false. They have lost to some awful teams too. Dubois owned Matthews in the playoffs. Montreal shut them down. They are the favorites again this year. There's no real excuse for them to not get over the hump this year.


The refs? Oh boy.... I see why they got so much respect shaking hands now.....

The big contracts need to lead the way. That's why they are the big contracts. It's not on old man Joe Thornton to take the team on his back. It's the guy dumping $16m into his bank account. That money comes with responsibility.

If the big contracts don't take the team on their backs, the Leafs aren't going anywhere. Clearly the talent is there. They need to find the heart and mental fortitude. I'm not saying anything controversial here.

 

[TS Quint]

I do wonder if he has another "down" year what his contract looks like.

At his worst he's an elite #1C, but will he be looking to get paid like a franchise C?

Say he has a 40-40 season next year. Does he get a raise? If so, it's hard to imagine it's a big raise.

Maybe I'm underestimating UFA deals, but I don't think TOR will have to work that hard to keep him. They're one of the richest teams in the league and can afford to give max signing bonuses and work it in his favour.

Plus, chances are TOR is still a good-great team next year and most contenders are capped out.

The only way he leaves imo is it he's secretly annoyed with teammates or media or something. Otherwise it's a perfect fit for him.

My prediction is he doesn't extend right away, but signs an 8 year extension around training camp for 12m.

12m x 8 a lower cap hit and 7 more UFA years than his current contract. He got that contract on potential. Now that he has the awards to show he's a top player there's no chance he's taking that contract.

I think he's going to push for McDavid money and I'll still be surprised if he takes 8 years. Dubas will surprise me if he get Matthews for under 14m even more surprising if it's more than 5 years.

 

[TS Quint]

Capspace says hi

"_______ says hi" needs to go from this board. It just comes across as childish and unoriginal.

 

[Sundinisagod]

I do wonder if he has another "down" year what his contract looks like.

At his worst he's an elite #1C, but will he be looking to get paid like a franchise C?

Say he has a 40-40 season next year. Does he get a raise? If so, it's hard to imagine it's a big raise.

Maybe I'm underestimating UFA deals, but I don't think TOR will have to work that hard to keep him. They're one of the richest teams in the league and can afford to give max signing bonuses and work it in his favour.

Plus, chances are TOR is still a good-great team next year and most contenders are capped out.

The only way he leaves imo is it he's secretly annoyed with teammates or media or something. Otherwise it's a perfect fit for him.

My prediction is he doesn't extend right away, but signs an 8 year extension around training camp for 12m.

You make a great point about him having another down year affecting his contract in 2024. And considering his injury history it is very possible. That’s one of the main reasons I think he’ll accept a deal from Toronto this off season. His value might be higher this summer than next.

I think you are very light on the 12m x 8 though. Start with the Mackinnon deal, add for projected cap increases and Canada tax, it will likely be well over 13m x 8. Absolute minimum I could see is 13.34 x 8 and he’d consider that a huge discount. Keep in mind he wanted 13.6 x 8 on his current deal…to match McDavid in terms of cap percentage, so anything less than that he will see it as a discount.

 

[TS Quint]

yet everyone talks of Toronto/ s Ontario coming to Toronto as UFAs.


I don’t see him staying in Canada.

him being in the US will increase his marketing potential big time. He will earn far more money and be on US national TV broadcasts if the team he’s on is good, even if not a cup favorite. Especially Chicago.

him going to Phoenix doesn’t spark an arena getting built?

he can go just about anywhere in the ststes. The question is who will have the cap space.

I think the overwhelming odds are he stays in Toronto but Matthews in the US especially in Pheonix might be pretty close to the impact of Gretzky to LA. I get it, Gretzky is Gretzky. But a Superstar American boy would be a dream for the NHL as a whole. With the Kings looking to be hitting a very competitive window at the same time that could be some big money.

Makes sense for the NHL to really push Mathews marketing if he went to the US. That's worth a lot to the American networks. Put Matthews and a marketing machine into a city the size of Pheonix and that would excite everyone who bennifits from HRR.

 

[Djp]

I think the overwhelming odds are he stays in Toronto but Matthews in the US especially in Pheonix might be pretty close to the impact of Gretzky to LA. I get it, Gretzky is Gretzky. But a Superstar American boy would be a dream for the NHL as a whole. With the Kings looking to be hitting a very competitive window at the same time that could be some big money.

Makes sense for the NHL to really push Mathews marketing if he went to the US. That's worth a lot to the American networks. Put Matthews and a marketing machine into a city the size of Pheonix and that would excite everyone who bennifits from HRR.

If he signs in Toronto it would be in July.

if he doesn’t sign he at least does a Stamkos and plays the market.

 

[mighty Stanley Duck]

I think he resigns because he already earned shitload of money and i dont think he is going to pursue maximum amount of money...
8 × 12.5...

 

[centipede2233]

"_______ says hi" needs to go from this board. It just comes across as childish and unoriginal.

Then I’m in the right place!

 

[Voight]

I do wonder if he has another "down" year what his contract looks like.

At his worst he's an elite #1C, but will he be looking to get paid like a franchise C?

Say he has a 40-40 season next year. Does he get a raise? If so, it's hard to imagine it's a big raise.

Maybe I'm underestimating UFA deals, but I don't think TOR will have to work that hard to keep him. They're one of the richest teams in the league and can afford to give max signing bonuses and work it in his favour.

Plus, chances are TOR is still a good-great team next year and most contenders are capped out.

The only way he leaves imo is it he's secretly annoyed with teammates or media or something. Otherwise it's a perfect fit for him.

My prediction is he doesn't extend right away, but signs an 8 year extension around training camp for 12m.

He hasn't been healthy the entire year. Hence the down year.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him return to 50-60 goals, 100 points next year.

 

[Voight]

yet everyone talks of Toronto/ s Ontario coming to Toronto as UFAs.


I don’t see him staying in Canada.

him being in the US will increase his marketing potential big time. He will earn far more money and be on US national TV broadcasts if the team he’s on is good, even if not a cup favorite. Especially Chicago.

him going to Phoenix doesn’t spark an arena getting built?

he can go just about anywhere in the ststes. The question is who will have the cap space.

He only lags behind Sid & McDavid when it comes to endorsements. I dont think people realize he gets a ton of deals simply by being face of the Maple Leafs.

 

[Djp]

He only lags behind Sid & McDavid when it comes to endorsements. I dont think people realize he gets a ton of deals simply by being face of the Maple Leafs.

He woukd make double what they do if he was in a US market

 

[Legion34]

He woukd make double what they do if he was in a US market

Wait you think he would make more in a us market? Where is any evidence of that?

He got paid 10 million from Scotiabank

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

I don’t know, if Arizona wins the Second OV I think they try to package it for a trade with matthews.

 

[Cowumbus]

I don’t know, if Arizona wins the Second OV I think they try to package it for a trade with matthews.

Why would Toronto even consider that ?

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

He woukd make double what they do if he was in a US market

I doubt it , from who lol

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

Why would Toronto even consider that ?

Uhm, if he doesn't want to sign... wouldn't you consider.. a package of the 2nd OV +++ from arizona? Ok say they win the 1st OV..

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Wait you think he would make more in a us market? Where is any evidence of that?

He got paid 10 million from Scotiabank

As the greatest Mexican player of all time all of Latin America would be his cashbox.