Prospect Info: Matthew Wood - RW | 15th Overall | 2023 NHL Draft

[Porter Stoutheart]

To put it in perspective, Wood is producing around the same as Gunnarwolfe Fontaine is. Granted, one is in his 5th NCAA year, and the other is "only" in his 3rd year. But still...

 

[Flgatorguy87]

If you look at his NCAA game though, thats not the case...he is a playmaker not a sniper (although he has a great shot)

Are you watching or seeing his assists?

 

[herzausstein]

To put it in perspective, Wood is producing around the same as Gunnarwolfe Fontaine is. Granted, one is in his 5th NCAA year, and the other is "only" in his 3rd year. But still...

Gunnarwolfe is about 4.5 years older than Wood. This may be Wood's 3rd NCAA season but you should remember that he went to college early and is just going to be turning 20 this spring. Fink is just slightly older than Wood and from the same draft and is just in year 2.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Gunnarwolfe is about 4.5 years older than Wood. This may be Wood's 3rd NCAA season but you should remember that he went to college early and is just going to be turning 20 this spring. Fink is just slightly older than Wood and from the same draft and is just in year 2.

I know all that, just good NHL players don't usually last 3 years in the NCAA to begin with, let alone just being around 1ppg at the end of the ride. He's not going to be a player that plays a bottom-6 role. His bread and butter is only ever going to be the points he puts on the board. He got a very young start in the NCAA... but so far hasn't seemed to get any better, which is worrisome, independent of age right?

Connor Kurth on his team has the same points, is 21 in his 3rd year, and was a #192 pick. Brody Lamb, 21, 3rd year, #104. These are the guys Wood is hanging with in terms of production and age (<2yrs delta anyway), just on his own team. I think it's fair to have expected a #15 pick to be doing something more, right?

 

[herzausstein]

I know all that, just good NHL players don't usually last 3 years in the NCAA to begin with, let alone just being around 1ppg at the end of the ride. He's not going to be a player that plays a bottom-6 role. His bread and butter is only ever going to be the points he puts on the board. He got a very young start in the NCAA... but so far hasn't seemed to get any better, which is worrisome, independent of age right?

Connor Kurth on his team has the same points, is 21 in his 3rd year, and was a #192 pick. Brody Lamb, 21, 3rd year, #104. These are the guys Wood is hanging with in terms of production and age (<2yrs delta anyway), just on his own team. I think it's fair to have expected a #15 pick to be doing something more, right?

Wood was always going to be a project. He is a bigger player and as i recall hit a growth spurt his final year before being drafted.

14th overall in Woods draft was Yager and he is only 42nd in the WHL for points. Honzek was drafted 16th too and does decent enough in the AHL but nothing outstanding. Mid 1sts are a crapshoot. Wood is a big boy with ok skating. He may take all college to really step it up.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Wood was always going to be a project. He is a bigger player and as i recall hit a growth spurt his final year before being drafted.

14th overall in Woods draft was Yager and he is only 42nd in the WHL for points. Honzek was drafted 16th too and does decent enough in the AHL but nothing outstanding. Mid 1sts are a crapshoot. Wood is a big boy with ok skating. He may take all college to really step it up.

I guess these kinds of threads can read like they are some kind of "witch hunt" or whatever, I am fully conceding that Wood is a "project" and still young despite his 3 years in college. Just... you'd rather see a guy shooting out the lights in his situation than just "hanging in there". Which is by no means the end of the story for him. It just would have been nicer if he was actually shooting out those lights however, which is what I was originally expecting from draft day. We all very much WANT Wood to succeed.

 

[Scoresberg]

I know all that, just good NHL players don't usually last 3 years in the NCAA to begin with, let alone just being around 1ppg at the end of the ride. He's not going to be a player that plays a bottom-6 role. His bread and butter is only ever going to be the points he puts on the board. He got a very young start in the NCAA... but so far hasn't seemed to get any better, which is worrisome, independent of age right?

Connor Kurth on his team has the same points, is 21 in his 3rd year, and was a #192 pick. Brody Lamb, 21, 3rd year, #104. These are the guys Wood is hanging with in terms of production and age (<2yrs delta anyway), just on his own team. I think it's fair to have expected a #15 pick to be doing something more, right?

Blues fans seem to be pretty high on Jimmy Snuggerud, who plays on the same team with Wood. He’s a 2022 pick producing pretty much at a same rate as Wood.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Blues fans seem to be pretty high on Jimmy Snuggerud, who plays on the same team with Wood. He’s a 2022 pick producing pretty much at a same rate as Wood.

One thing you can definitely argue on Minnesota this year is they have so much talent - literally almost the whole team is NHL drafted - that they do spread out ice time and opportunity more than most teams do. So on the one side, Wood is surrounded by a lot more talent. On the flip side... they aren't leaning on him and playing him 25 minutes a night.

 

[herzausstein]

I guess these kinds of threads can read like they are some kind of "witch hunt" or whatever, I am fully conceding that Wood is a "project" and still young despite his 3 years in college. Just... you'd rather see a guy shooting out the lights in his situation than just "hanging in there". Which is by no means the end of the story for him. It just would have been nicer if he was actually shooting out those lights however, which is what I was originally expecting from draft day. We all very much WANT Wood to succeed.

I just dont get my expectations too high. There are plenty of players that have succeeded in NCAA but fail to get to the NHL. If he gets to the AHL and flounders, then i think there will be a serious issue.

Right now we have 3 players in the top 30 points/game in NCAA D1. Fink, Wood, and the mighty O'Hara of those i still suspect Wood would have the higher chance of NHL success but Fink is closing in on him. Fink could be like several other smaller players that fail to ever really break into the NHL even though he can put up numbers in other leagues. Wood has a more typical NHL frame. He may end up needing to reinvent his game like Watson did though if he doesnt produce. O'Hara is a strange wildcard who has already bested previous years production in half the games.

 

[Viqsi]

To sum up:

• Wood is a legit prospect; always has been.
• He is not a star prospect; never has been.
• We need star prospects because we've never had one at forward.
• We are therefore freaking out because Wood is not showing the signs of a star prospect.

My recommended solution is to appreciate Wood for what he has been and continues to be and not freak out over Creeping Expectationism.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

To sum up:

• Wood is a legit prospect; always has been.
• He is not a star prospect; never has been.
• We need star prospects because we've never had one at forward.
• We are therefore freaking out because Wood is not showing the signs of a star prospect.

My recommended solution is to appreciate Wood for what he has been and continues to be and not freak out over Creeping Expectationism.

Hm. Outside of Celebrini he might have been the best player in the WJC-18? That's what cranked him up as a top-10 candidate on draft lists. Was not a "star prospect"? I beg to differ. In the 10-15 range, you better be picking a "Star prospect". We thought we were swinging for the fences with a star prospect.

Flat-lining for 3 years is not really a good sign, though, whether you are a "star prospect" or something else. There are some troubling signs here. You can ignore them if you want. We all have our fingers crossed that everything turns out ok in the end.

 

[Viqsi]

Hm. Outside of Celebrini he might have been the best player in the WJC-18? That's what cranked him up as a top-10 candidate on draft lists. Was not a "star prospect"? I beg to differ. In the 10-15 range, you better be picking a "Star prospect". We thought we were swinging for the fences with a star prospect.

Flat-lining for 3 years is not really a good sign, though, whether you are a "star prospect" or something else. There are some troubling signs here. You can ignore them if you want. We all have our fingers crossed that everything turns out ok in the end.

The bolded is an unrealistic expectation. It is a hope, not a demand. What you demand at that point is an NHL player, not necessarily a star.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The bolded is an unrealistic expectation. It is a hope, not a demand. What you demand at that point is an NHL player, not necessarily a star.

I think there is a distinction between "star prospect" and "star player"... you pick a "star prospect"... hoping he might become a "star player"... while of course not fully expecting that.

So far Wood is not anywhere near fulfilling that "hope". It's not an expectation.

 

[herzausstein]

I think there is a distinction between "star prospect" and "star player"... you pick a "star prospect"... hoping he might become a "star player"... while of course not fully expecting that.

So far Wood is not anywhere near fulfilling that "hope". It's not an expectation.

Hoping for a star outside of a top 5 pick is folly to begin with. It can happen sure but is pretty out of the ordinary.

Anyways the stats for this season for the next 5 forwards drafted after Wood are:
Honzek - 4G 7A 11P 17 games AHL
Barlow - 15G 9A 24P 30 games OHL
Moore - 5G 12A 17P 20 games NCAA
Sale - 4G 9A 13P 22 games AHL
Stramel - 5G 7A 12P 16 games NCAA

Wood - 6G 15A 21P 19 games NCAA

he still has the best NHLe of any of the next 5 chosen forwards from his draft year.

Honestly should've probably taken ASP (RHD) at that spot but thats life.

 

[Scoresberg]

Blues fans seem to be pretty high on Jimmy Snuggerud, who plays on the same team with Wood. He’s a 2022 pick producing pretty much at a same rate as Wood.

To piggyback on this:

Wood's PPG in NCAA this year: 1.11
Ryan Leonard (2023 8th OA): 1.19
Snuggerud: 1.20

Leonard's playing on a line with Hagens and Gabe Perrault. So pretty decent talent there, I'd say.

2022 13OA Frank Nazar was 1.00 PPG player in college, and transitioned to a >1.00 PPG player in the AHL and is now getting his feet wet in the NHL.

Matthew Knies was a 1.05 PPG player in his D+2 player in NCAA.

Matthew Coronato: 1.06 (D+2)

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I don't think you can draw much from point production unfortunately. If he's playing on a team with loaded players, he is going to get points. The true test for him will be what does his skating look like when he gets to Milwaukee. That's the next measuring stick in my mind.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

A couple quotes from Pronman and Wheeler about the team Canada cut...

"Wood’s lack of pace was evident throughout camp and I think they just want the identity of this team to look a little different."

"Wood being a cut was also not a huge surprise to me. He was a returning member of last year’s Canada team, but that wasn’t a great Canada team and he played limited minutes for them. He’s a super-skilled big man, but his feet are very heavy, and he was struggling to create chances at evens due to his lack of pace."


Skating, skating, skating, skating...say it with me...skating.

That is going to determine if he can make it. I know the comps are to other below average skaters...the problem is I don't think Wood is below average. He might be below average in his college conference. On NHL ice with draftees and invites he looked like a giraffe on skates.