Speculation: Matthew Knies next contract

[KrisLetAngry]

Byfield type contract is what I think he will look for. With a small bump in AAV.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

He's not going to get 9 million dollars that's not going to happen, and no team that would consider letting him go to would offersheet him because those teams aren't going to risk Gavin Mckenna.

Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Chicago, SJ and Philadelphia won't offersheet him because those teams aren't going to risk Gavin Mckenna.

Anybody else would be a waste of time because the Leafs have close to 30 million dollars in cap space they can match anything

 

[seanlinden]

So break this down for me. What team is paying 4 first round picks for Knies to pay him 9M where he will be overpaid for the first few years at least.

I believe teams would target him for offersheet why wouldn't you he is a 23 year old power forward. I don't believe the price.

This... Knies is a great player, but he has been on the Leafs top line all year, and will likely finish with 30 goals and 55 points give or take.

He has not, any level, shown any form of electric scoring or playmaking ability. If a team wants to give up 4 unprotected firsts for him to sign an 8 year deal, by all means. Even giving up a 1/2/3 pick to sign him to a 5-year deal at $8m, it's really not a smart move.

As others have mentioned, Dylan Guenther and Juraj Slafkovsky are the reasonable comparables here. They signed for $7.1m and $7.6m on 8 year deals.

Now, I would be at all suprised to see Knies follow the lead of Matthews and go shorter term, setting himself up for a massive 3rd contract. I believe there are 5 more years of RFA status, so I'm sure the Leafs will probably hold on it either being a 4 year deal or a 6 year deal.

Maybe the Toronto effect / Cap jumping allow him to close in on that $7m number without comitting to 8 years. To me, the "right" number is probably 4 years at $5.5m to $6m, or 6 years at $6.5m to $7m.

 

[Legion34]

It's nice to see other teams fans over valuing our players for a change.

The over value all the players until they sign

All year Matthews was getting 15x7 in Arizona and then when he signed for 11.6 x5 I was ridiculous

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I guess this will be Toronto's first time having Tre negotiate with a relevant RFA. From a Flames fan perspective, this is one of the things he is very good at. The number will very likely come in lower than projections.

 

[CapspaceKiller]

Offer Sheets are apparently everywhere when a young Leafs player hits Free Agency.

 

[Pablo El Perro]

If you're worried about an offer sheet, let another team sign him at 5 or 6 per and just match it. If a team offers him 9, their GM should be fired.

 

[EK392000]

Boldy is the upper limit of what he can make on a long term deal. Boldy > Knies coming as a Leafs fan.

Looks like he will be an elite complementary piece and should not be paid as a line driver.

 

[BLNY]

Rising cap or not, $9 million would be an overpay.

 

[Leaf Fans]

There is definitely a number that the Leafs won't match on an offersheet. Though likely he will re-sign.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

He will use Slafkovsky’s deal as a benchmark.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Oof...He's a fantastic young player but he sholdn't get anywhere close to that.

 

[The Shadow]

He’s exactly what every team wants. Only 22 and already at 25 goals. Definitely see 40+ goals in a season in his future

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

6 to 7 over a reasonable amount of time seems the likeliest route to me .

 

[LeProspector]

He should go short term.

 

[Stealth JD]

$7.3 x 3-4yrs

 

[WTFMAN99]

9 million per for Knies??

I'd assume that's 8 years but as alluded to in this link, his agent would be smart to push for 5 years to chase free agency at 28 years old.

What do you think the Leafs and Knies agree to on term and AAV?
Would some team offer sheet him for 8 million or more?

His stats are super comparable to Alex Tuch (the year he extended) which would put at at like 5.45M x 7 years.

It's Toronto and we get hosed a bit but 6x6 seems like a fair middle ground.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

It will probably be similar to Nylanders rfa contract. 6 years 7 Million.

 

[Breakers]

Jesus

These dudes are claiming $8 million AAV is a huge win.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

His stats are super comparable to Alex Tuch (the year he extended) which would put at at like 5.45M x 7 years.

It's Toronto and we get hosed a bit but 6x6 seems like a fair middle ground.

Tuch signed his when the salary cap was much lower. An equal salary by percentage would be 7M in todays cap world.

 

[byrath]

Short term aav should be more important to the Leafs than potentially underpaying Knies in a few years. I'll guess a 2*5.75 bridge.

 

[NVious]

It genuinely would not surprise me if Knies asked for an insane amount, in Toronto the leaders are all greedy overpaid losers, that's the culture he's being brought into.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Boldy is the upper limit of what he can make on a long term deal. Boldy > Knies coming as a Leafs fan.

Looks like he will be an elite complementary piece and should not be paid as a line driver.

Minnesota should offersheet him at a price higher than $7M. The cap is spiking and Boldy's AAV doesn't apply to players signing contracts when the upper limit is much higher.

 

[Scintillating10]

9 million per for Knies??

I'd assume that's 8 years but as alluded to in this link, his agent would be smart to push for 5 years to chase free agency at 28 years old.

What do you think the Leafs and Knies agree to on term and AAV?
Would some team offer sheet him for 8 million or more?

Knies lock him up now for 9m is smart move.

 

[villacco]

I would either give him 2/3 years at 4.5 to 5 million or 8 years at 7.5 to 8 million
The cap is going up significantly.
Use your cup window (3 more Matthew years) and worry later or try to get him long term at a somehow reasonable price, if one of Marner or Tavares leaves