Speculation: Mathew Barzal Contract Discussion

[The Winter Soldier]

Time to start thinking at numbers, term, and timing.

2 examples of how Lou operated when he signed Lou signed a young Rielly and Kadri when they were RFA's to 5 x 6, and 4.5 x 6

He signed them in mid April after the season.

Something to keep an eye on. Barzal may bet on himself, it will be interesting to see how Lou handles a key piece of the Isles organization this year

 

[PWJunior]

I think it's a little premature to discuss this TWS. So much depends on what happens with this year's group of RFA's before we have a better grasp on market precedents and comparables.

All I know is that he won't be cheap and will likely want 5 years.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I think it's a little premature to discuss this TWS. So much depends on what happens with this year's group of RFA's before we have a better grasp on market precedents and comparables.

All I know is that he won't be cheap and will likely want 5 years.

I don't think it is PW. The situation with Marner and the other RFA's is a good example that getting a player signed early may be the best way to go. If I am Barzal's agent, I probably tell him to bet on himself. But if Barzal plays in the Trotz D focused system again, and does not get near his 85 historic season, it may make sense for Barzal to get signed early with that still on the negotiation table. The recency bias. Regardless, I am of 2 minds here, which is why I think it is a good time to talk about it. There are no guarantees Barzal hits 85 points next year with Trotz's system, and there is Barzal himself that who is just going to be even more dominate that he may hit 85 while playing the Trotz system. Get the guaranteed money now, or wait and gamble on a big season?

 

[YearlyLottery]

Barzal will definitely bet on himself. I do think Barzal hits over 70 points this upcoming season with an improved power play and gets a very nice contract for himself. I am hoping Dubas and the rest of the GM's do not bend to their RFA's.

 

[Kevin27nyi]

I think it's a little premature to discuss this TWS. So much depends on what happens with this year's group of RFA's before we have a better grasp on market precedents and comparables.

All I know is that he won't be cheap and will likely want 5 years.

I think we get him to 8 years.

 

[PWJunior]

I think we get him to 8 years.

I would be over the moon if he does, but I don't see that happening.

 

[IslandersFan17]

I think Barzal will look for that shorter term. Nothing against that decision, kids are realizing they are best served getting to that next contract ASAP. Would be incredible if we convinced Barzal to take eight. However, even if Matt is in his heart and islander for life, it still benefits him to force them to pay up again.

 

[islesfan186]

The Matthews contract really set the bar for big money, shorter term deals. That's what Aho got too, and according to the evidence, that's what Marner (and probably Laine, Provorov, and Connor) will get as well.
Barzal will want 8 mil+ and probably 5 years. If Lou can get him to sign an 8 yr deal, then that would be awesome, but it seems the trend is big loot for shorter term which walks them straight to UFA to then get another massive payday

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

I'd offer him... one million dollars.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Thanks for the feedback guys. I think if Lou comes to and offers him 10M x 8 years this summer and before in season say by Nov. It would be hard for Barzal to pass up. This is coming off a 85 and 62 points season.

To me, this is telling Barzal we value you, we are betting on you to be closer to the 85 points player, we want you to be a part of this. This is your team now, you are the face of it. Surely off a 62 point season most players would not be offered 10M x 8. But based on what is going on right now with RFA's. This could be a good deal for the Isles say a summer later, and for Barzal to have an organization show this much faith in him. It's a commitment that works both ways.

Lou works in stealthy manners, the Rielly and Kadri RFA deals tell me he is apt to get this done early, rather than at the last min as in before training camp 2020. Which could be a tough negotiation to complete.

 

[islesfan186]

Thanks for the feedback guys. I think if Lou comes to and offers him 10M x 8 years this summer and before in season say by Nov. It would be hard for Barzal to pass up. This is coming off a 85 and 62 points season.

To me, this is telling Barzal we value you, we are betting on you to be closer to the 85 points player, we want you to be a part of this. This is your team now, you are the face of it. Surely off a 62 point season most players would not be offered 10M x 8. But based on what is going on right now with RFA's. This could be a good deal for the Isles say a summer later, and for Barzal to have an organization show this much faith in him. It's a commitment that works both ways.

Lou works in stealthy manners, the Rielly and Kadri RFA deals tell me he is apt to get this done early, rather than at the last min as in before training camp 2020. Which could be a tough negotiation to complete.

Let's see what he does this season before we start handing out 8 figure deals. If he has another sub 70 point season, I'd like that figure to be closer to 8 mil than 10

 

[Costigan77]

Wow---11 posts and no one has stated short term so he can go play in Seattle?

Has everyone become sane?

 

[islesfan186]

Wow---11 posts and no one has stated short term so he can go play in Seattle?

Has everyone become sane?

I'm more worried about him having Canuck PJ's. He grew up in Vancouver or somewhere in BC, no?

 

[Costigan77]

I'm more worried about him having Canuck PJ's. He grew up in Vancouver or somewhere in BC, no?

Was not a Canucks fan
Barzal Excited for BC Homecoming

I think he liked something on Instagram about the Seattle expansion team, (he played on the Thunderbirds) and people on here freaked.

 

[Finnislander]

Was not a Canucks fan
Barzal Excited for BC Homecoming

I think he liked something on Instagram about the Seattle expansion team, (he played on the Thunderbirds) and people on here freaked.

I heard someone saw that Ron Francis was his favourite player when Barzal was young, even had Francis' Whalers jersey as a kid.

 

[islesfan186]

Was not a Canucks fan
Barzal Excited for BC Homecoming

I think he liked something on Instagram about the Seattle expansion team, (he played on the Thunderbirds) and people on here freaked.

I know, I was kidding. Not a whole lot going on in the NHL right now, gotta entertain myself somehow

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Let's see what he does this season before we start handing out 8 figure deals. If he has another sub 70 point season, I'd like that figure to be closer to 8 mil than 10

I don't see 10M per, give or take .5 to the lesser a bad contract for 8 years a risky contract. The odds of Barzal knocking it out the park next year may make that amount seem small. Aho at 8.5 x 5 is the most recent comparable. They are Very similar players in IMO. If Aho is making 8.5 over 5, then Barzal at 10M buying out 3 more UFA years would be a very fair deal.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

I think Barzal will probably want to hit UFA at 27 or 28 since he'll still be in his prime at that point and will be able to score a big UFA contract. He'll be 23 next off-season.

So I could see him getting signing 4-5 years at around 8M per, higher AAV if he scores 70+ points this coming season.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

Wow---11 posts and no one has stated short term so he can go play in Seattle?

Has everyone become sane?

Still has five seasons (including next year's final ELC year) before he could possibly leave for Seattle or any other NHL team.

But yeah, those RFA years go quickly. Better make sure we build a winner here so he wants to stay instead of going back home to the NW.

 

[Poliz24]

I will be that guy, if for whatever reason he says he doesn't want to be here. Trade him, it is a business get the best return. While I don't see that happening, he is the player in which the NHL is now geared for skill and skating. Build around him offensively through the draft as best as possible b/c free agency isn't our stronghold. Though I think belmont changes that.

 

[PK Cronin]

I will be that guy, if for whatever reason he says he doesn't want to be here. Trade him, it is a business get the best return. While I don't see that happening, he is the player in which the NHL is now geared for skill and skating. Build around him offensively through the draft as best as possible b/c free agency isn't our stronghold. Though I think belmont changes that.

He doesn't have a say, he'll be an RFA.

 

[LeapOnOver]

He doesn't have a say, he'll be an RFA.

I think he meant if Barzal was stupid enough to show his hand and say that it was unlikely he'd want to continue to be here once he's a UFA. OP is probably saying to trade him now if that's the case. Doubt any of that would come out anyway, but I'm leaning towards that being what the OP meant.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

I think he meant if Barzal was stupid enough to show his hand and say that it was unlikely he'd want to continue to be here once he's a UFA. OP is probably saying to trade him now if that's the case. Doubt any of that would come out anyway, but I'm leaning towards that being what the OP meant.

Even if he says he won't re-sign as an UFA, who cares? That's still five years away at absolute minimum. No need to trade him now. We can trade him in 4.5 years if that does happen.

 

[BMOK33]

Let's see what he does this season before we start handing out 8 figure deals. If he has another sub 70 point season, I'd like that figure to be closer to 8 mil than 10

If I’m Lou I want to sign him now. If I’m Barzal or his agent I want to wait til May or June next year thinking I could probably return to or improve on my first season form.

 

[Poliz24]

He doesn't have a say, he'll be an RFA.

In terms of RFA status yes, he doesn't have a say but look what happened with Trouba. He ended up getting traded. Obviously none of us wants it to get to that point. We just need to proceed with caution thats all.