Player Discussion Marner

[Gary Nylund]

The adults are talking here Gary.

And you should consider listening to what they have to say every now and then.

Whatever term you want use. The reality is that he’s on the team and, unless the wheels fall off, he’ll be on the playoff roster and they’re going to try and best utilize his talents.

If he gets pushed out of the playoffs again, they can decide to let him walk if they haven’t re-signed him in season.

I sure hope they do wait until the playoffs are over and consider letting him walk if he doesn't play well. Committing to him now basically says playoffs aren't a priority which would really suck.

Well the problem I see with the data is our core 4 feast on the games they score 8 goals in against weaker opponents. I also notice that when Matthews and Marner get split up because of a bad stretch, they are put back together in these feast games.

Can also argue that Matthews-Nylander only happens when the team is playing bad

There has been a ton of data posted here that exposes Marner's shortcomings, but some people only see what they want to see.

 

[666]

Well the problem I see with the data is our core 4 feast on the games they score 8 goals in against weaker opponents. I also notice that when Matthews and Marner get split up because of a bad stretch, they are put back together in these feast games.

Can also argue that Matthews-Nylander only happens when the team is playing bad

We can only measure so much but if our PP was anything close to Edmonton's Matthews would score 75 easy.

 

[m1ker]

We can only measure so much but if our PP was anything close to Edmonton's Matthews would score 75 easy.

Our PP isn't doing anything when Tavares and Nylander are the guys expected to forecheck and win the puck.

We also have 2 guys Rielly and Marner that dont shoot

Then we have Matthews that goes on stretches where he doesnt want to shoot unless its a perfect open shot

 

[thewave]

I've posted these stats many times but maybe you haven't seen them:

5v5 over the last 3 seasons to get the sample acceptable:

Player 1	Player 2	Player 3	Player 4	GP	TOI	GF	GA	+/-	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	w/o William Nylander	w/o John Tavares	205	1808	120	74	46	3.98	2.46	61.86
w/o Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	w/o William Nylander	John Tavares	215	889	45	29	16	3.04	1.96	60.81
Auston Matthews	w/o Mitchell Marner	William Nylander	w/o John Tavares	227	829	50	33	17	3.62	2.39	60.24
w/o Auston Matthews	w/o Mitchell Marner	William Nylander	John Tavares	237	1559	72	83	-11	2.77	3.19	46.45

Nylander plays with Matthews about as much as Marner plays with Tavares.
Matthews does well with everyone but a bit better offense with Marner.
Marner with Tavares is as good as Nylander is with Matthews. Think about that.
Nylander is horrible with Tavares.

To your point. No one thinks that Matthews is overrated. And you've now been presented with the facts that say that Marner isn't overrated.

Had time to read this properly.

Why is MM not stapled to JT. The combo is far superior overall when you consider GA/60. To not put that combo makes the coaching inept.

So Keefe and Berube are either stupid.

Or

Mitch demands to be on with AM


Pretty obvious and if its a demand he is about himself and not team.

 

[666]

Had time to read this properly.

Why is MM not stapled to JT. The combo is far superior overall when you consider GA/60. To not put that combo makes the coaching inept.

You'll have to ask the coaches but my guess is that there is some internal politics with these things that we'll never know.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Had time to read this properly.

Why is MM not stapled to JT. The combo is far superior overall when you consider GA/60. To not put that combo makes the coaching inept.

So Keefe and Berube are either stupid.
Or
Mitch demands to be on with AM

Pretty obvious and if its a demand he is about himself and not team.

Good question. IMO it should be Matthews with Domi, Marner with JT, and Nylander with whoever, it just makes too much sense. If we get to say January and Berube still hasn't even tried this, then unless the team is just rolling, Berube is a moron.

 

[Antropovsky]

I know. That flip over the boards just snapped you guys and you've never recovered. It's gotten so bad that some of you have convinced yourselves that Marner sucks in the regular season. Man, it must be terrible for you guys to watch Marner do his magic every night.

Last year a reporter said according to advanced stats Marner had a NEGATIVE impact on the teams expected goal creation and was only playing slightly better the the AVERAGE skater. Lol

Thats magic to you..?

Article:

Mitch Marner is scoring, but is there enough substance to his game this season?
Not only are the Leafs creating less in Marner’s minutes compared to previous seasons, but it’s also relative to his teammates this season. He’s rarely had a negative influence on his team’s expected goal creation, but this year it’s down to minus-0.17 per 60.

Marner’s impact, relative to the average skater when accounting for his role, usage, and coaching, is still slightly above average as the heat maps reflect below (the top row is offense/bottom row defense, with red showing areas of more expected goal generation). But he’s someone the Leafs count on to be more than slightly above average — he’s expected to be a game-breaker, along with Nylander and Matthews.

The production may have masked some of the flaws developing below the surface, but Marner needs to bring more than just empty-calorie scoring. "

 

[666]

Had time to read this properly.

Why is MM not stapled to JT. The combo is far superior overall when you consider GA/60. To not put that combo makes the coaching inept.

So Keefe and Berube are either stupid.

Or

Mitch demands to be on with AM


Pretty obvious and if its a demand he is about himself and not team.

C'mon man. If anything it would be Matthews making the demands. So I looked it up.
Matthews produces significantly worse with Nylander particularly only getting 82% as many goals.

With	TOI With	Goals/60	Total Assists/60
Mitchell Marner	2008​	1.64​	1.34​
William Nylander	1026​	1.34​	1.46​

 

[Gabriel426]

Yes
No
He can get you the puck, whether you score or not is now out of his hands. Mathews leads the league in shots and that’s not counting his numerous high and wides. Mathews is shooting 8.5 %, if he was shooting a more respectable 16% we may only have had 1 or 2 losses so far. But sure it’s Marner’s Fault.

That’s the thing though, Domi makes 40% of MM’s salary and can do the same thing for AM.
If you look at shooting % sofar this season, think MM had as many shots as Willie but he got ONE goal with a shooting % of 3.6. That’s unacceptable for any forwards.
Instead of saying AM should be better maybe we should ask MM to just be better.

 

[ULF_55]

I've posted these stats many times but maybe you haven't seen them:

5v5 over the last 3 seasons to get the sample acceptable:

Player 1	Player 2	Player 3	Player 4	GP	TOI	GF	GA	+/-	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	w/o William Nylander	w/o John Tavares	205	1808	120	74	46	3.98	2.46	61.86
w/o Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	w/o William Nylander	John Tavares	215	889	45	29	16	3.04	1.96	60.81
Auston Matthews	w/o Mitchell Marner	William Nylander	w/o John Tavares	227	829	50	33	17	3.62	2.39	60.24
w/o Auston Matthews	w/o Mitchell Marner	William Nylander	John Tavares	237	1559	72	83	-11	2.77	3.19	46.45

Nylander plays with Matthews about as much as Marner plays with Tavares.
Matthews does well with everyone but a bit better offense with Marner.
Marner with Tavares is as good as Nylander is with Matthews. Think about that.
Nylander is horrible with Tavares.

To your point. No one thinks that Matthews is overrated. And you've now been presented with the facts that say that Marner isn't overrated.

Just curious, who did Nylander play with to get 98 points last year?

Career high with Leafs
Matthews - 107
marner - 99
Nylander - 98
Tavares - 88

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

 

[666]

Just curious, who did Nylander play with to get 98 points last year?

Career high with Leafs
Matthews - 107
marner - 99
Nylander - 98
Tavares - 88

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

First of all Nylander had his pre-contract burst and the played significantly worse after he signed. He had something like 35 points on the PP and 5v5 he had 22 points with Tavares and 11 points with Matthews but no one disputes Nylander's offensive abilities it's his defence that is terrible. For example with JT who he spent most of his time with and where the sample size is probably big enough they were on the ice (5v5) with 26 goals for and 27 against. And remember that was by far his best season. It doesn't really matter how many times you can cherry pick at the blue line waiting for the stretch pass and score the pretty break away goal if the other team scores even more while you're waiting at the blueline for the pass that never comes.

 

[ULF_55]

C'mon man. If anything it would be Matthews making the demands. So I looked it up.
Matthews produces significantly worse with Nylander particularly only getting 82% as many goals.

With	TOI With	Goals/60	Total Assists/60
Mitchell Marner	2008​	1.64​	1.34​
William Nylander	1026​	1.34​	1.46​

Is this because Nylander scores more than marner while with Matthews?

 

[arso40]

Re-read it. Marner plays with Tavares as much as Nylander plays with Matthews (about 33%) but Marner produces equally while Nylander is terrible with Tavares.

edited to add: the stats are /60 stats, they account for unequal toi.

That theory didn’t pass the eye test last year don’t think it did year before either

 

[ULF_55]

First of all Nylander had his pre-contract burst and the played significantly worse after he signed. He had something like 35 points on the PP and 5v5 he had 22 points with Tavares and 11 points with Matthews but no one disputes Nylander's offensive abilities it's his defence that is terrible. For example with JT who he spent most of his time with and where the sample size is probably big enough they were on the ice (5v5) with 26 goals for and 27 against. And remember that was by far his best season. It doesn't really matter how many times you can cherry pick at the blue line waiting for the stretch pass and score the pretty break away goal if the other team scores even more while you're waiting at the blueline for the pass that never comes.

Does anyone dispute Matthews defensive ability?
Is Tavares a better defensive center than Matthews?

 

[666]

Is this because Nylander scores more than marner while with Matthews?

Probably. But that's also probably because Matthews has to cover up for Nylander's bad defence.

Does anyone dispute Matthews defensive ability?
Is Tavares a better defensive center than Matthews?

Now we're getting into difficult to measure things as we have to look at who they play against. All we know for sure is that Marner is much better with JT than Nylander is.

Does anyone dispute Matthews defensive ability?
Is Tavares a better defensive center than Matthews?

Put it this way. If Matthews played with Nylander instead of Marner he wouldn't have 3 rockets.

 

[thewave]

Last year a reporter said according to advanced stats Marner had a NEGATIVE impact on the teams expected goal creation and was only playing slightly better the the AVERAGE skater. Lol

Thats magic to you..?

Article:

Mitch Marner is scoring, but is there enough substance to his game this season?
Not only are the Leafs creating less in Marner’s minutes compared to previous seasons, but it’s also relative to his teammates this season. He’s rarely had a negative influence on his team’s expected goal creation, but this year it’s down to minus-0.17 per 60.

Marner’s impact, relative to the average skater when accounting for his role, usage, and coaching, is still slightly above average as the heat maps reflect below (the top row is offense/bottom row defense, with red showing areas of more expected goal generation). But he’s someone the Leafs count on to be more than slightly above average — he’s expected to be a game-breaker, along with Nylander and Matthews.

The production may have masked some of the flaws developing below the surface, but Marner needs to bring more than just empty-calorie scoring. "

That tracks with my eyes.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Think you meant to quote @Mess it was his projection.
Careful, you may have to defend Marner while doing so.

I have no problem pointing out erroneous statements, regardless of the person involved.

I have, and will continue to, 'defend' Marner or anyone else when untrue negative comments are made, and similarly correct untrue positive comments.

His projection may or may not be false, but we know that those projections made now about last year are inaccraute.

 

[IPS]

We can only measure so much but if our PP was anything close to Edmonton's Matthews would score 75 easy.

Yeah but where exactly do you separate that from the actual player's ability on the PP?

The coaching excuse seems to be dwindling more and more.

 

[Anthrax442]

I’m curious if anyone changed their mind in this thread yet.

 

[thewave]

I’m curious if anyone changed their mind in this thread yet.

I went from being a firm believer in myself to having hope for about 2/3s of humanity.

 

[Antropovsky]

That tracks with my eyes.

Exactly what many of us have said... empty calorie points and actually "bringing down his lines expected goal generation". Only "slightly above the "average skater."

 

[diceman934]

He made team Canada already??

I will bet my profile for yours. You delete if he makes team Canada and I delete if he does not.

 

[Antropovsky]

Fun chat with MacKinnon on spittin chicklets from earlier in the year:



He talks about Marner at around 2:00:55

Wonder if its a hint to Marner being on McDavids line at the 4 nations.

MacKinnon also seems to love Marners game and be a little taken aback to how much negative press Marner gets lol. Doesnt know this city. Would have cooked him alive earlier in his career when he had a slow start and would probably be going after him for his "minus 5 on the season" today lol.

Mackinnon was asked about Marner by Paul B and he gave a very short response:
"I expect more of the same, because it's usually unreal, I think he would have over 100 points every year if he played 82 games... its always negative about Marns, well not always, but its negative and you get on the ice with him and you think how can anyone be negative about this..you know..thats why for me, I admire how good he is, just because people chirp him alot. Yea, in Vail (training with Crosby/Mackinnon) he was just awesome, flying around with Mcdavid, it was fun to watch"

This really isn't a shining endorsement. ",when i get on the ice i think, how could anyone be negative about this?""I admire how good he is because people chirp him alot?" It was a pretty flat response. He didn't gush over any of his skillset and no indication of his high end skills, just he's awesome and was flying around with Mcdavid.

What do people honestly think a player is gonna say about another player when asked about them?

"Yea definitely overrated"

 

[Gabriel426]

which lineup do you think bring more balance and harder for opponents to play against in playoffs.

Knies-AM-MM
Max-JT-Willie
McMann-Domi-Calle

Or

Knies-AM-Domi
Calle-JT-MM
McMann-Holmberg-Willie

 

[thewave]

which lineup do you think bring more balance and harder for opponents to play against in playoffs.

Knies-AM-MM
Max-JT-Willie
McMann-Domi-Calle

Or

Knies-AM-Domi
Calle-JT-MM
McMann-Holmberg-Willie

It doesn't hurt to try.