Player Discussion Marner

[HamiltonNHL]

People is this thread are ridiculous. Miller Light Tastes Great.

 

[Confucius]

You're wrong. Historically, playoff scoring is about 4-5% less than in the regular season. Marner's drops off more than any of our other stars. JT's number are awful as well, Matthews isn't great either but Nylander's been great. You like numbers so much, here are their numbers over the last 5 seasons (posted by someone else but I have no reason to believe that the math isn't correct):

Marner: 24% less points per game in the playoffs
Nylander: 2% less points per game in the playoffs

Conslusion - you dismissing criticism of Marner with "the entire team is bad" is lame. Not everyone on our team drops off, Marner though has been pretty bad.

William during regular season .876 points per game, playoffs .796
Marner “. ‘’. ‘’ 1.11 ‘’ ‘’ ‘’. ‘’ ‘’. .877

Marner does indeed drop off more than William but Marner’s playoff point production per game is more than William’s regular season.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The fact that your name is reference to an early 80's player indicates that you are over 50 give or take, I'm going with 57(±4). If you're that old and "work with data" and have all day to post from work, I predict with some certainty that you missed out on the tech glory days and didn't get any shares. Maybe you should have been in school learning to engineer things instead of being a "semi-professional" gambler.

Again with the personal attacks. You seem like a rather petty individual who is angry, unhappy, and needs to insult people online to make themselves feel better. You have two choices:

1)
Bringing what you mistakenly think I do for a living into a discussion about Marner is inappropriate, if you'd like to have a civilized discussion free of insults, then apologize and we can continue. I'm a happy person and I don't need your apology, but an apology would be a sign of good faith, besides being appropriate.

2)
Don't apologize, and when you demand that I answer your questions, don't expect a response. I enjoy respectfully discussing hockey with my fellow Leaf fans but if you're unable or unwilling to be respectful ... well, I'll give you credit for being able to figure it out from here.

Here's the reality: of the seven breakdowns by Marner, most of the other core players got a minus because of his dumb plays. Yet, you can’t show me a single instance where Marner got a minus solely because of their mistakes.

Marner's a very good example of how stats rarely tell the whole story.

There are so many variables that your pretty stats miss, but the eye test doesn't.

+1000

People is this thread are ridiculous. Miller Light Tastes Great.

Les filling!

 

[666]

don't expect a response.

Works for me. You ignore everything you don't like anyway.

 

[Gary Nylund]

William during regular season .876 points per game, playoffs .796
Marner “. ‘’. ‘’ 1.11 ‘’ ‘’ ‘’. ‘’ ‘’. .877

Marner does indeed drop off more than William but Marner’s playoff point production per game is more than William’s regular season.

These numbers look wrong. Maybe add what time frame you're referring to but Marner's career numbers IIRC are pacing for a 14 goal 70 point 82 game pace. Show your work.

No such thing. UNIX is a multiuser computer operating system not a database. It was widely used for Internet servers, workstations, and mainframe computers. There are Azure DBA's, SQL DBA's, Linux DBA's, IBM DBA's, Oracle DBA's and so on ... in this case your understanding of who you worked with and what they do is lacking...

Yes I meant to say UNIX admin, feel free to make a big deal out of it if it makes you feel better LOL.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Les filling!

 

[Gary Nylund]

Works for me. You ignore everything you don't like anyway.

Again, not true at all. First of all, it's not a matter of "like" or "don't like", that has nothing to do with it.

 

[666]

Again, not true at all. First of all, it's not a matter of "like" or "don't like", that has nothing to do with it.

Dude, you can stop responding, it's ok. We're done for now.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Dude, you can stop responding, it's ok. We're done for now.

So you won't apologize for inappropriately bring up what you incorrectly think I do for a living, why am I not surprised.

What's with the insults and personal attacks anyway, does behaving like this really make you feel good about yourself?

And you did never explain why you said that being a Data Admin was "a lame job". I guess insulting people is easier than justifying your comments.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

...

 

[Confucius]

These numbers look wrong. Maybe add what time frame you're referring to but Marner's career numbers IIRC are pacing for a 14 goal 70 point 82 game pace. Show your work.


Yes I meant to say UNIX admin, feel free to make a big deal out of it if it makes you feel better LOL.

According to nhl.com William 532pts career 607 games, 43 points 54 playoff games
‘’ ‘’ ‘’ ‘’ marner644pts career 580 games, 50 points, 57 playoff games

532/607 = .876
50/57= .877

 

[666]

So you won't apologize for inappropriately bring up what you incorrectly think I do for a living, why am I not surprised.

What's with the insults and personal attacks anyway, does behaving like this really make you feel good about yourself?

You know you can just not respond.

Where do you get this stuff? I know what you do for a living. You "work with data" but you're not a DBA. I said DBA's were lame but you aren't one so who cares?

As for your past "semi professional" gambler career, that's what you've said in the past so I'm just repeating it. Stop being so sensitive.

Again, you really don't have to respond. Better yet, just block me if my posts upset you so much. My feeling won't be hurt.

 

[Gary Nylund]

According to nhl.com William 532pts career 607 games, 43 points 54 playoff games
‘’ ‘’ ‘’ ‘’ marner644pts career 580 games, 50 points, 57 playoff games

I believe Marner's playoff PPG is .70, how is that less than .876?

William during regular season .876 points per game, playoffs .796
Marner “. ‘’. ‘’ 1.11 ‘’ ‘’ ‘’. ‘’ ‘’. .877

Marner does indeed drop off more than William but Marner’s playoff point production per game is more than William’s regular season.

In any case I gotta run, have a nice day.

You know you can just not respond.

Where do you get this stuff? I know what you do for a living. You "work with data" but you're not a DBA. I said DBA's were lame but you aren't one so who cares?

As for your past "semi professional" gambler career, that's what you've said in the past so I'm just repeating it. Stop being so sensitive.

Again, you really don't have to respond. Better yet, just block me if my posts upset you so much. My feeling won't be hurt.

Nope, this is wrong, and you still didn't answer my question. I'm not upset at all, maybe amused is a better word. Have a nice day anyway you angry petty person.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I want him gone

 

[Confucius]

I believe Marner's playoff PPG is .70, how is that less than .876?


In any case I gotta run, have a nice day.


Nope, this is wrong, and you still didn't answer my question. I'm not upset at all, maybe amused is a better word. Have a nice day anyway you angry petty person.

50 points in 57 playoff games is .877 per game, which is more than William’s .876 per game regular season game

 

[666]

I'm not upset at all, maybe amused is a better word.

People who are "amused" don't demand apologies. Remember our cognitive dissonance talks?

 

[Legion34]

Those points are points, but they don't represent anything about the player. That's the... point. Points aren't the perfect representations of player quality and impact that you want them to be. Some of those points represent something about the team, which is not what teams are paying for. The team didn't have more special teams time because of Rantanen, and having more special teams time didn't even benefit them. Because Rantanen was so much less efficient, Colorado scored less PP goals than Toronto despite being gifted the most PPs in the league, and because PPs and penalties tend to correlate, Colorado was -8 from special teams during that time. Leafs were +26. Efficiency is what wins you games. That's why PPs are ranked by percentage, not total PP goals. You can't rely on always having the same amount of special teams time. And Marner was the one with the better net penalty differential, for the record.

Get out of here with the "not good enough" nonsense. "Good enough to be the trigger man"? Being the trigger man isn't harder. If anything, its easier. You just have to stand there and shoot, not break down penalty kills. Both were among the PP ice time leaders on their team, and Marner did more to earn more minutes than Rantanen did. Marner didn't play 16 minutes a game. He played almost 18. Both were among the TOI leaders on their teams. Both were trusted to be on the ice in empty net situations. Colorado just had more of those chances. Both were trusted to be on the ice in 5v3 situations. Colorado just had more of those chances. Both were trusted to be main guys on their PPs. Colorado just had more of those chances.

Bunting didn't outscore McDavid in his contract year, but he (just like Hyman) did get less than his straight points/goals/ppg/gpg would suggest, because surprise: context is considered! Draisaitl got a high AAV because the cap is skyrocketing. It is not the highest cap hit percentage at all, but if we just went by your stats, he should be. Mackinnon didn't get full value for his straight production. Neither did Rantanen. You're literally countering your own argument. Also, nobody is saying that PP production is ignored. It's just contextualized. Also, you're wrong. Contracts do correlate better when PP time information is factored in. There is way, way more evidence that something like this would be and was considered, than there is for your claim that all critical information is ignored and contract negotiations just entail spending months looking at a couple specific stats. You have provided nothing - only things that contradict your own argument - when quite frankly, you are the one with the burden of proof to support that the these contracts, actually signed by an actual GM that knows way more about contract negotiations and how they work than you, were wrong and were a result of GM incompetence instead of the very obvious gap that exists between them.

You seem to have even accepted that Rantanen wasn't better or even equal, and your argument now seems to be that GMs and agents are stupid and ignore critical information, because you said so against all evidence, and our GM was bad for not drawing a line in the sand to be stupid too, at the expense of our team. Do you honestly think that a GM is going to say:

Well, I know we screwed you out of money on your ELC in a pretty unprecedented way, and I know that our coach was then abusive to you, and I know that you're getting offer sheets, and I know that you were one of the best young ES and PP producers in NHL history despite us making some pretty unprecedented decisions to neuter your production potential as much as possible, and I know that everything suggests you're worth 11m, but because you happened to come up in one of the lowest PPO eras ever, on a team that doesn't play a lot of special teams, under a coach that likes split units, we're going to ignore how good you actually are and draw a line in the sand refusing to pay you what you're actually worth and what even other players got for that level of raw production, because we're only going to look at very specific stats for one specific player that hasn't even signed yet, and punish you for any disadvantages we irrationally gave you, and for helping the team on the PK instead of racking up more free points. Oh, also you're a playmaker, so screw you. Come on man. Really?

1.) the entire post still has zero reference to any historical precedent that’s similar total/pace goals and points lead to an 18% difference in contracts for same time period and position. Zero.

2.) I am not arguing that Marner was more or less impactful. You are. That has nothing to do with Marner having a contract in line with his peers. You subjectively belief and argue that Marners points were somehow more impressive based on opportunity. Sure. You have no evidence that contracts are pro rated by opportunity.

Ie. nic Robertson scored more goals per 60
Than any leaf save Matthews. He didn’t get paid like Willy.

3.) draistl got paid like a 15% aav player. He wasn’t worth less because he scores tons on pp. it didn’t matter how he got the points. Pp. short handed etc.

All of your subjective beliefs about marners performance are fine. But you cannot prove at all that drastic differences happen based on one team having more special teams opportunities than another.

Because it’s not true.

 

[DarkKnight]

I like his game so far this year.

Okay back to making the same point for years, who has the time lol. Where the lame roam.

 

[thewave]

People who are "amused" don't demand apologies. Remember our cognitive dissonance talks?

You wanted to trade him two years ago didn't you? It's OK to not like the way a player performs in the POs. A lot of lame playoff performers over the years. He is the first to make 10m+ though. That's a special number to be paid. 10m+ for hockey. Wow.

 

[myleafs]

So you won't apologize for inappropriately bring up what you incorrectly think I do for a living, why am I not surprised.

What's with the insults and personal attacks anyway, does behaving like this really make you feel good about yourself?

And you did never explain why you said that being a Data Admin was "a lame job". I guess insulting people is easier than justifying your comments.. Ignore button is your friend.

Ignore button is your friend. Don't feed the you know what.

 

[Hellcat]

These numbers look wrong. Maybe add what time frame you're referring to but Marner's career numbers IIRC are pacing for a 14 goal 70 point 82 game pace. Show your work.


Yes I meant to say UNIX admin, feel free to make a big deal out of it if it makes you feel better LOL.

Why would I, your some rando on the innerweb's, you overestimate your general importance.

 

[Gallagbi]

These numbers look wrong. Maybe add what time frame you're referring to but Marner's career numbers IIRC are pacing for a 14 goal 70 point 82 game pace. Show your work.

You can look it up on hockeydb. Career numbers and that Marner pace is low 70 pts, so I'm not sure why it would look wrong

 

[Evilhomer]

I guess people can debate this forever, but the Leafs have two options: (1) sign him; or (2) let him leave as a free agent. There is no trade option anymore. Once you are left with those two options, I don't see how any rational person can realistically believe that the team will let him leave for nothing, with no guarantee that his offense can be adequately replaced. This isn't Tyler Bertuzzi. It's just a matter of how long and how expensive his contract will be.

 

[Antropovsky]

That's not very positive. It's actually funny. C'mon man, you can say it. Say it with me. "Marner is a regular season superstar".

I have many reasons why I strongly disagree, and this is just one of them.

I don’t think a regular season superstar would rank 13th overall and 10th overall in 5v5 P/60 in the league, especially considering Marner plays alongside a proven NHL superstar.

 

[Gallagbi]

I guess people can debate this forever, but the Leafs have two options: (1) sign him; or (2) let him leave as a free agent. There is no trade option anymore. Once you are left with those two options, I don't see how any rational person can realistically believe that the team will let him leave for nothing, with no guarantee that his offense can be adequately replaced. This isn't Tyler Bertuzzi. It's just a matter of how long and how expensive his contract will be.

They may not have a choice. If they leave it too late the playoffs could dictate how this ends for him.