Proposal: Marner to Pittsburgh

[4thline]

But he always produced in the playoffs. Marner doesn’t. Marner is an absolutely terrible playoff performer with many of the same negatives Kessel had.

By "always" you mean in the 7 playoff games he appeared in over the 6 seasons prior to his trade?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

By "always" you mean in the 7 playoff games he appeared in over the 6 seasons prior to his trade?

Seven? Why do only Leaf games count? 22 games is not a small sample size. He was a point per game with 13 goals. Those are great numbers.

Marner is a negative in the playoffs. I wouldn’t touch him if I were a contender. He makes sense in a Columbus where maybe he could help get them to the postseason and sell some tickets. But not if you’re trying to win a cup.

 

[seanlinden]

I feel like Kessel and Marner are comparably talented players (relative to how they rank league-wide), but Kessel was a better play driver while Marner is a substantially better all-around player. That's why I think the 2015 Kessel trade is a good estimate for what Marner would bring back in a trade, I think it would be like 2 1sts (or a 1st and a 1st round prospect), another lesser prospect and some cap going back.

Like I said above, I think Smith, Pickering, Ilyin and a lottery protected 1st for Marner is really in line with the Kessel trade and is pretty realistic for what a Marner trade would end up looking like. Smith is an interesting guy for the Leafs to target due to his superb playoff track record, they can likely just slide him into Marner's role and see how Smith would do in the playoffs for them.

The problem isn't the "value" -- it's that that type of trade doesn't really do anything for the Leafs. When the Leafs traded Kessel, they were about to embark upon a complete rebuild. The Leafs trading Marner is a retool move.

The future pieces don't really serve much of an organizational need, nor do the Leafs have a good way to develop them, and Rielly Smith, more of just a "placeholder" to throw onto the right side.

Obviously the Pens don't have a ton of guys that really fit well with the Leafs... but none of those assets really move the needle.

A guy like O'Connor -- might flame out into nothing, or might be a really important piece alongside Matthew Knies, Bobby McMann and maybe Max Domi. A guy like Brayden Yager, might be able to compete with Fraser Minten for a spot in the lineup next year, and give the Leafs a guy that can grow as Tavares declines.

 

[Dennis Reynolds]

Why do the Pens want Marner?

They already have enough pass-first options on the power play.

 

[aircobra]

I seriously doubt the Penguins trade a top-10 pick and if it stays where it currently is, it goes to the Sharks.

 

[SomeDude]

Why do the Pens want Marner?

They already have enough pass-first options on the power play.

Dubas is an idiot will be the reason we trade for him.

 

[duckpuck]

Marner's trade value will be significantly depressed by his NMC, his AAV, and his likely contract extension demands. Toronto would be wise to dump him quickly (accept a reduced return/cap relief) and then go find UFA options. If this drags on, the value will only go down.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Marner for Karlsson.

 

[Gurglesons]

Pettersson, Rust, and Carolina's 1st if we get it or one of the 2nds from this year.

 

[Mike Jones]

Pittsburgh really needs to start rebuilding now and should be keeping its picks and prospects.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Take out Pickering and the pick and there is a deal to be made.

Sure, but not with the Leafs.

 

[Leaf Fans]

But he always produced in the playoffs. Marner doesn’t. Marner is an absolutely terrible playoff performer with many of the same negatives Kessel had.

Kessel has 83 playoff points in 100 games while Marner has 50 playoff points in 57 games.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Kessel has 83 playoff points in 100 games while Marner has 50 playoff points in 57 games.

Kessel’s production before the trade was point per game. He paced over that time for 48 goals over 82. Those are outstanding numbers. And once he went to Pittsburgh he outproduced everyone on the team in the playoffs for points and goals and should’ve won the Conn Smythe in 2016.

Marner paces for 13 goals over 82. It’s all assists. And almost none of them come from game five and beyond. He’s a terrible playoff performer. His goals drop by more than half in the postseason.

Marner fits into a small market that’s trying to sell tickets and make the playoffs. That’s the ideal place for him. No contender should be interested in trading for this guy.

 

[Bruce Granville]

Dubas is an idiot will be the reason we trade for him.

This.
And he will sign Keefe…

 

[Leaf Fans]

Kessel’s production before the trade was point per game. He paced over that time for 48 goals over 82. Those are outstanding numbers. And once he went to Pittsburgh he outproduced everyone on the team in the playoffs for points and goals and should’ve won the Conn Smythe in 2016.

Marner paces for 13 goals over 82. It’s all assists. And almost none of them come from game five and beyond. He’s a terrible playoff performer. His goals drop by more than half in the postseason.

Marner fits into a small market that’s trying to sell tickets and make the playoffs. That’s the ideal place for him. No contender should be interested in trading for this guy.

However, when he reached those 82 games and continued to his 100 games he had fallen far off that pace. Yes, Marner is more of a play maker than Kessel.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

However, when he reached those 82 games and continued to his 100 games he had fallen far off that pace.

Who cares? That was years later and has no bearing on this conversation. The player that Pittsburgh traded for had a great playoff resume and he delivered for them. What happened later doesn’t matter.

Yes, Marner is more of a play maker than Kessel.

Before being traded to Pittsburgh, Kessel’s goals and points went UP in the playoffs. He was a terrific playoff performer. And again, he put up a Smythe worthy performance for them.

Marner is a 28 goal scorer whose goals drop by more than half in the playoffs. And he totally disappears in games five and onward.

Two totally different situations.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Who cares? That was years later and has no bearing on this conversation. The player that Pittsburgh traded for had a great playoff resume and he delivered for them. What happened later doesn’t matter.



Before being traded to Pittsburgh, Kessel’s goals and points went UP in the playoffs. He was a terrific playoff performer.

Marner is a 28 goal scorer whose goals drop by more than half in the playoffs. And he totally disappears in games five and onward.

Two totally different situations.

You care. You brought up pace. What was years later? Kessel played 100 playoff games in those 100 games he scored 83 points. No more-No less in Marner's 57 games he has 50 points. He has scored in a game 5 in 2022,2023, and 2024

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You care. You brought up pace.

I don’t care about his later years.

The pace was brought up because it more clearly illustrates how well he was performing. 48 goals over 82 is easier to process than 13 over 22. Just like it’s easier to say that Marner paces for around 16 per 82 rather than 11 in 57. (His goal this series actually bumped him higher than I had him.)

Putting them both over 82 simply makes it easier to compare them. It also makes it easier to show how much they went up or down vs the regular season.

So, to the original point, they did not have similar reputations when Kessel was traded.

That’s all that needs to be said here.

 

[Leaf Fans]

I don’t care about his later years.

The pace was brought up because it more clearly illustrates how well he was performing. 48 goals over 82 is easier to process than 13 over 22. Just like it’s easier to say that Marner paces for around 16 per 82 rather than 11 in 57. (His goal this series actually bumped him higher than I had him.)

Putting them both over 82 simply makes it easier to compare them.

That is goals right?

 

[Toby Flenderson]

I like the idea of Marner to Pittsburgh, and if the leafs are serious about trading him we are a logical spot.

Absolutely not to Yager, and really not even interested in trading a 2025 1st unless Marner is signing an extension.

Let’s say the Canes make it to the final:

Canes 2024 1st, Pickering, Rakell for Marner

Pens can off load Rielly Smith pretty easily to make the cap work.

Marner would be a good fit alongside Sid. I think Sid’s leadership and aura would make Marner start giving a shit

 

[seanlinden]

I like the idea of Marner to Pittsburgh, and if the leafs are serious about trading him we are a logical spot.

Absolutely not to Yager, and really not even interested in trading a 2025 1st unless Marner is signing an extension.

Let’s say the Canes make it to the final:

Canes 2024 1st, Pickering, Rakell for Marner

Pens can off load Rielly Smith pretty easily to make the cap work.

Marner would be a good fit alongside Sid. I think Sid’s leadership and aura would make Marner start giving a shit

Objectively, Rakell probably doesn't bring much that the Leafs don't already have in Calle Jarnkrok right now, and longer term, perhaps Pontus Holmberg. He's coming off another "down" season, and has only surpassed 20 goals once since 2017-18. He's 31 years old yesterday.

To spend $5m on Rakell for the next 4 seasons seems asinine. The first round pick, if Carolina makes the cup final (the conditions of the pick) will mean that it's a 31st or 32nd overall... not all that exciting.

Ultimately, we're talking about a premier player in this league in Mitch Marner. At least one of the pieces involved has to a) do something material for the Leafs, and b) is probably going to "hurt" to lose.

 

[RogerRoger]

Marner's trade value will be significantly depressed by his NMC, his AAV, and his likely contract extension demands. Toronto would be wise to dump him quickly (accept a reduced return/cap relief) and then go find UFA options. If this drags on, the value will only go down.

The NMC isn't that big of a hurdle imo, the guy wants out. Knowing his agents and what he said about Marner's contract extension means that teams know they'll have to pay through the nose for him and that limits his trade market/value more than anything else.

 

[DickSmehlik]

Given that the Pens are not anywhere close to competing for a Cup, they should not be trading any futures, especially for Marner, whom I think evidence is pretty strong that he won't help you in that regard.

But the fallacy of giving Crosby and Malkin one more kick at the can is strong amongst even some otherwise reasonable pundits, so I wouldn't rule it out.

 

[Toby Flenderson]

Objectively, Rakell probably doesn't bring much that the Leafs don't already have in Calle Jarnkrok right now, and longer term, perhaps Pontus Holmberg. He's coming off another "down" season, and has only surpassed 20 goals once since 2017-18. He's 31 years old yesterday.

To spend $5m on Rakell for the next 4 seasons seems asinine. The first round pick, if Carolina makes the cup final (the conditions of the pick) will mean that it's a 31st or 32nd overall... not all that exciting.

Ultimately, we're talking about a premier player in this league in Mitch Marner. At least one of the pieces involved has to a) do something material for the Leafs, and b) is probably going to "hurt" to lose.

That is the offer for Marner with no extension. 1 year of Marner (especially after how he just performed in playoffs) does not net you anything as significant as you’d hope. Guentzel is as good (if not better) and he was just dealt for a pile of B+ assets.

If Marner wants to extend then better assets can be discussed. But even then I seriously doubt Yager is on the table.

As for Rakell, he’s really in there for cap reasons. It’s either him or Smith. The leafs aren’t going to unload Marners massive cap hit without taking back a contract like theirs

 

[orby]

Marner for Karlsson straight up is an interesting idea.