Marner Predictions - What Happens Now

[Gary Nylund]

lasr 3 years( would take too much time to get it for longer)

5v5 productio playoff vs season
Matthews 83% (drop of 17 %)
Marner 78% ( 22% drop)
Nylander 73% ( 27% drop)
Tavares 69% ( 31 % drop)

Pp
Matthews 81% ( 19% drop)
Marner 80% ( 20% drop
Nylander 71% ( 29% drop)
tavares 56% ( 44 % drop)

This looked wrong to me so I did the math and came up with 84% for Nylander, not 71%.

I also got 60% for Marner, not 78%. One of sucks at math I guess LOL.

Oops, sorry I forgot to add - my numbers are for totals, not split between ES and PP but still, if my numbers are right then yours are clearly wrong so my comment about one of sucking at math stands.

 

[thusk]

This looked wrong to me so I did the math and came up with 84% for Nylander, not 71%.

I also got 60% for Marner, not 78%. One of sucks at math I guess LOL.

last 3 year
Nylander recorded 3 goal 3 assist in 22 = 0,272727 pts /game

recorded 33 goal 61 assist in 245 game = 0,38367/ gm

0,272727 ( playoff production/gm)÷ 0,38367( regular season/ game) = 71%

marner
5-9 in 25 0,56
÷
53-106 in 221 0,719
= 0,7788 ... so 78%

 

[thusk]

Oops, sorry I forgot to add - my numbers are for totals, not split between ES and PP but still, if my numbers are right then yours are clearly wrong so my comment about one of sucking at math stands.

I'm 100% sure of my number and i didn't talk about even strenght but 5v5

 

[Gary Nylund]

last 3 year
Nylander recorded 3 goal 3 assist in 22 = 0,272727 pts /game

recorded 33 goal 61 assist in 245 game = 0,38367/ gm

0,272727 ( playoff production/gm)÷ 0,38367( regular season/ game) = 71%

I don't know where you're getting your numbers from but this is Nylander's last 3 years from Hockey Reference which I consider to be a reliable source.

William Nylander Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of William Nylander. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

That comes out to .91 PPG and his regular season PPG over the last 3 y ears is 1.08.

.91 / 1.08 = .84.

If Nylander's overall numbers are 84% of what they were regular season, your numbers (73% 5on5 and 71% PP) can't be right.

 

[thusk]

I don't know where you're getting your numbers from but this is Nylander's last 3 years from Hockey Reference which I consider to be a reliable source.

William Nylander Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of William Nylander. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

View attachment 908204

That comes out to .91 PPG and his regular season PPG over the last 3 y ears is 1.08.

.91 / 1.08 = .84.

If Nylander's overall numbers are 84% of what they were regular season, your numbers (73% 5on5 and 71% PP) can't be right.

Naturalstatstrick or nhl.com... its the same

where Nylanser raise of production came on specific situation like 4v4 or 6v5... 4v4 you dont play a lot on those situation in general and 6v5 most of the time when you playing 6v5, its because you're in trouble and not a good sign.

.. but at 5v5 and pp his production drop a lot

 

[francis246]

You seem a tad miserable yourself. there chief. Don't let what other people think get to you is my advice. There are millions of fans, millions of opinions, that's just life.

As far as these players being "exceptional people", they're just hockey players dude and no matter how much we may enjoy watching hockey, there's nothing all that exceptional about that. People have a tendency to worship entertainers in the public eye be they singers, actors, pro athletes or whatever else but IMHO, there are literally millions of people that are far more deserving of being though of as exceptional. Take Doctors Without Borders for example, now that's an organization that deserves to called exceptional as do probably all the people involved with it. That's just one example, there are many, many others.

I love hockey and I love the Leafs, but it's just a game.


Agree 100% with all this. And as far as the risk in net goes, it's still a big question mark but I've been high on Woll for a while now (as have many others) and he was awesome in the playoffs. Small sample size of course but damn, I haven't been this excited about a goalie that we drafted since Felix the Cat!

Where I agree with you is, even myself I have to remind myself, these guys do not give two shits about me, so I don’t have to go super hard defending them. They are just regular people. My brother says that too every time he sees me on here losing my mind haha

 

[notDatsyuk]

lasr 3 years( would take too much time to get it for longer)

5v5 productio playoff vs season
Matthews 83% (drop of 17 %)
Marner 78% ( 22% drop)
Nylander 73% ( 27% drop)
Tavares 69% ( 31 % drop)

Pp
Matthews 81% ( 19% drop)
Marner 80% ( 20% drop
Nylander 71% ( 29% drop)
tavares 56% ( 44 % drop)

I'm not sure why you think it's so hard to do, unless you don't want to see the real results.

5 years:
AM 21%
MM 28%
WN 7%
JT 33%

4 years
AM 25%
MM 28%
WN 7%
JT 33%

3 years
AM 21%
MM 21%
WN 13%
JT 30%

2 years
AM 24%
MM 24%
WN 23%
JT 38%

1 year
AM 39%
MM 65%
WN 37%
JT 64%

It looks like the longer the span the more evident it is that Nylander didn't fade as much. Even in the shorter spans his production dropped the least, even while his regular linemate was dropping the most.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I don't know where you're getting your numbers from but this is Nylander's last 3 years from Hockey Reference which I consider to be a reliable source.

William Nylander Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of William Nylander. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

View attachment 908204

That comes out to .91 PPG and his regular season PPG over the last 3 y ears is 1.08.

.91 / 1.08 = .84.

If Nylander's overall numbers are 84% of what they were regular season, your numbers (73% 5on5 and 71% PP) can't be right.

He has this weird obsession with trying to downplay Nylander's game, so he keeps usung very selectuve dates and partial stats to support his views. I have no idea where he comes up with them.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Where I agree with you is, even myself I have to remind myself, these guys do not give two shits about me, so I don’t have to go super hard defending them. They are just regular people. My brother says that too every time he sees me on here losing my mind haha

Your brother, and my (late) mother. LOL.

He has this weird obsession with trying to downplay Nylander's game, so he keeps usung very selectuve dates and partial stats to support his views. I have no idea where he comes up with them.

This time around the stats seem to be not even selective or partial, just wrong, period.

 

[francis246]

Your brother, and my (late) mother. LOL.


This time around the stats seem to be not even selective or partial, just wrong, period.

I think the more time I spend on here the more I realize I’m not trying to argue. Especially after the Gaudreau stuff, it’s just not worth it to bicker everyday on something that we have no control over. I just want to see these guys make something happen and WIN WIN WIN. We all want the same thing but may have different ways we feel the team should go about it.

 

[thusk]

I'm not sure why you think it's so hard to do, unless you don't want to see the real results.

5 years:
AM 21%
MM 28%
WN 7%
JT 33%

4 years
AM 25%
MM 28%
WN 7%
JT 33%

3 years
AM 21%
MM 21%
WN 13%
JT 30%

2 years
AM 24%
MM 24%
WN 23%
JT 38%

1 year
AM 39%
MM 65%
WN 37%
JT 64%

It looks like the longer the span the more evident it is that Nylander didn't fade as much. Even in the shorter spans his production dropped the least, even while his regular linemate was dropping the most.

the only part where nylander producing at higher rate was

the 22 minute played at 4v4 raised of 375% ( 2 of 3 pts was on the same 4v4)

he played 6 m at 4v4 the 23 min played at 6v5 : who in my mind not a good thing because that mean you're in bad position to win

So he had been better on this 1,4% of time played at 4v4 and the 4,7% at 6v5 and get higher drop in the 93,9% remaining...

 

[rumman]

I think the more time I spend on here the more I realize I’m not trying to argue. Especially after the Gaudreau stuff, it’s just not worth it to bicker everyday on something that we have no control over. I just want to see these guys make something happen and WIN WIN WIN. We all want the same thing but may have different ways we feel the team should go about it.

unfortunately some would rather differing opinions just stop being negative and stop following the team if you won't drink the Kool-Ade. As bad as this place can get at least it isn't the cho chamber so many want, at least not yet...........

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

I don't know where you're getting your numbers from but this is Nylander's last 3 years from Hockey Reference which I consider to be a reliable source.

William Nylander Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Salary, Title | Hockey-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats of William Nylander. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, trade, draft, salary and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

View attachment 908204

That comes out to .91 PPG and his regular season PPG over the last 3 y ears is 1.08.

.91 / 1.08 = .84.

If Nylander's overall numbers are 84% of what they were regular season, your numbers (73% 5on5 and 71% PP) can't be right.

Naturalstatstrick or nhl.com... its the same
View attachment 908211
View attachment 908210


where Nylanser raise of production came on specific situation like 4v4 or 6v5... 4v4 you dont play a lot on those situation in general and 6v5 most of the time when you playing 6v5, its because you're in trouble and not a good sign.

.. but at 5v5 and pp his production drop a lot

Gary is using all situations and thusk is using 5-on-5.

These results should also be compared to a baseline: the average drop of ALL players across the league in the playoffs from regular season.

 

[GoonieFace]

Gary is using all situations and thusk is using 5-on-5.

These results should also be compared to a baseline: the average drop of ALL players across the league in the playoffs from regular season.

If people did a deep dive into Marners playoff points, they would realize it’s a lot of empty points.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think the more time I spend on here the more I realize I’m not trying to argue. Especially after the Gaudreau stuff, it’s just not worth it to bicker everyday on something that we have no control over. I just want to see these guys make something happen and WIN WIN WIN. We all want the same thing but may have different ways we feel the team should go about it.

Yup. We all want the same thing, I'm just here to kill some time during free moments at work. Not sure why some get so upset at differeting opinions, with millions of fans

Gary is using all situations and thusk is using 5-on-5.

These results should also be compared to a baseline: the average drop of ALL players across the league in the playoffs from regular season.

thusk also used PP numbers but the main difference is that unlike thusk, my math checks out.