My vote was to let him walk. But with that being said, how do they replace his scoring in the lineup? I don't think it is only him that has to be let go. I think Reilly needs to be forced out of town. Now with both of these things said, this is what I want to see:
Let Marner walk
Sign Tavares to team friendly deal ( 5-6 million per)
These two transactions save you around 16 million.
Then you force Reilly to waive his no trade. Provide 10 teams you would accept a trade to. Trade him with an eye to not replace him on D but bring in a couple of pieces for your forward core that will check a box on your bottom 6 and find someone for the top 6. This deal may need to be expanded (something like Reilly, Kampf and Robertson rights).
This transaction clears cap space, how much depends on what comes back in. But to start with you can ship out roughly $10.2 million in salary. You should easily be able to bring in 2 players at that cost if not less in trade. So lets say you bring in a 5 million dollar top 6 forward, and a 2 million dollar forward for bottom 6. Maybe the team we work with eats some salary. So lets say you save on the trade 2 million. This now gives us 18 million in cap space.
The last change to the roster before free agency should be the trading of Jarnkrok and his $2.1 million cap hit. This should be easy enough as his guaranteed money for the last year of his contract $875K as the rest is bonus. But his cap hit is still $2.1 million. Something a team like Utah, Seattle, Islanders, Buffalo, Chicago would be all over for a pick or two. This would bring us to 20 million in cap space with holes to fill in free agency and without the cap rising this off season. Add 7.5 million to that and your at almost $28 million to spend in free agency.
Now work with me:
Needs are a C, replacement D for Reilly, more scoring, size/speed/heart and grit all being pre-requisites
They should be all over Bennett. Bring him home. After winning his second cup in 2 years in Florida. Its time for him to leave and cash out. Sign him to $7 million X 6 years contract. He's 28 and will be good until hes 34/35. This leaves you $20 million to spend.
Sign Ekblad for $8.5 million per season times 4 years. Its more expensive then Reilly but he is a better Dman then Reilly and plays more physical like Tre and Chief like. This leaves you 11.5 to spend.
Sign Brandon Tanev to close out his career in Toronto playing at home and with his brother. $2 million a season times 2. Leaves you $9.5 million left
Re-sign Lorentz. $1.3 million times 2 years. Leaves you around 8 million.
Re-sign Holmberg. Depth piece who can move in up and down lineup. $1 million for the year. Leaves 7 million.
I spend no more based on this scenario as some of these contracts may need to rise a bit. But leave space to do so. Here's my lineup:
Knies-Matthews-Domi
Forward acquired in Reilly deal - Bennett - Nylander
McMann - Tavares - Forward acquired in Reilly deal
Lorentz - Laughton - Tanev
Holmberg
OEL - Ekblad
McCabe - Tanev
Benoit - Carlo
Myers