Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XIV

[4thline]

We both work at the same company and I produce more then you and you walked into the bosses office and came out with a huge raise. I walk in and they offer me less of a raise and want me to sign a contact for more years as well. Sorry that is not happening.

It really is that simply. Hard for many to understand it seems.

Haha no.

We work in the same company, and "produce" comparably, with you having a slightly better year. I have certain compensable skills that you don't and increased responsibility (that I succeeded with) that allow me to command a higher wage in the industry at large.

We're not getting the same raise.

 

[thewave]

Jack Eichel a 1.06 PPG franchise #1C @ $10 mil AAV X 8 turned his goal scoring winger Jeff Skinner into a 40 goal man and then Skinner was rewarded with an new 8 year deal @ $9 mil AAV.

So then as a comparable scenario ..

John Tavares a 1.07 PPG franchise #1C @ $11 mil AAV X 7 turned his playmaking winger Mitch Marner into a 94 point man and then Marner should be rewarded proportionately with a new 8 year deal @$10 mil AAV.

#1C Eichel @$10 mil X 8 ---> #1W Skinner @ 9 mil X 8
#1C Tavares $11 mil X 7 ------> #1W Marner @ $10 mil x 8

So as a result of timing of signing, and Leafs centres paid higher than Sabre centres, so adjusting for market, than determining $$ based on proportionality Eichel and Marner end up with the same contract of 8 years @ $10 mil without being used as a direct comparable. Both players give up 4 years RFA and 4 years UFA.

So despite a big #1 franchise Centre >> small highly skilled playmaking Winger the end result is the same contract.

Eichel went #2OA and Marner #4OA in 2015 entry draft only 2 spots later and if both end up with matching contracts that would be reasonable also based on Marner's production.

I am ok with a 10m x 8. These kids don't want that, they want 12m x 8, it doesn't work and isn't reasonable.

 

[thewave]

Really not a nickel and dime. I would be happy if Marner signed to a 7mm contract. My point is that the train has already left the tracks and everyone is in denial about the wreck.

Can't argue that. It is what it is and it isn't good for our Leafs.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You obviously feel he is not worth the coin.

The fact is that on a PPG basis Mitch fits an elite profile of young players that GMs have paid a premium for. He’s got the pedigree and history that made him a 4th overall pick in that draft class that included McDavid and Eichel.

Eichel and Marner are .90 PPG and drafted 2 and 4 respectively in the same draft class.

Mikko Rantanen is the only other player up for contract from that draft class that is producing at a lower but similar rate.

The Score projects him at $10Mm. Projecting Mikko Rantanen's next contract

Barzal is up there too as is Boeser. But both have a year to go.

I think the range is what it is.

He’s a premium player and Aho is just not the comparable. He’s the pipe dream.

That $10 mil aav projection was on an EIGHT year contract.

The Score (the VERY source you just used) projected Aho as a HIGHER cap hit than Rantanen. $10.25x8
Projecting Sebastian Aho's next contract

Which, over 5 years, would be somewhere in the ballpark of... you guessed it... 8.5

For Marner, the Score estimates 9.5x6

It should also be noted that the score calculated these cap percentages under the projected $83 million cap space. So each of those aav's would be a little lower.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I have had enough of this tax advantage bs. If that's the case the Leafs should withold payments to the League and tell them they will pull the franchise and ask every other highly taxed team to join them because it's a joke. You only need a few teams to rock that boat. Not hard to do and should have been fixed long ago but clearly Canada's braintrust are a bunch of Peter principle face flops that didn't know what they were doing. Typical of Canadian business, we screw up most of the time and end up selling abroad or going insolvent (here is looking at you Nortel and soon Bombardier). The Canadian solution, use public money to fix our stupid private sector.

/Rant

Why would Toronto rock the boat? Think about it from the other side. Toronto is cash flush from non hockey relate revenue by CBA rules which is hockey related revenue. So they use their big stick CASH in front loaded contracts and development and minors salaries etc. Maybe Tampa is sick of the big boy flexing their CASH muscle too. Bottom line eventually the guy with more CASH wins. and that does not even address the issue of big boy sponsor contracts from related ownership parties. Again not addressed in CBA. To try to get all parties to agree on all issues is a massive and complex fix. And it won't happen. Bottom line a socialist system never really works. Eventually a free market system will take over.

 

[paulhiggins]

In the next CBA negotiations, 90% of the membership will not vote YES for scraps and the 10% of the membership that think they alone should get all the coin will be left out in the cold until something fair for everyone is agreed on by the membership. The league feels the same way. Smart teams go cheap and short till then because the new CBA will impose strict limits on the number of players getting big money. Bridge him and as part of the same strategy get ready to unload Nylander if he doesn't start the season productively.

 

[thewave]

In the next CBA negotiations, 90% of the membership will not vote YES for scraps and the 10% of the membership that think they alone should get all the coin will be left out in the cold until something fair for everyone is agreed on by the membership. The league feels the same way. Smart teams go cheap and short till then because the new CBA will impose strict limits on the number of players getting big money. Bridge him and as part of the same strategy get ready to unload Nylander if he doesn't start the season productively.

Yep, the parties over for sure.

 

[4thline]

In the next CBA negotiations, 90% of the membership will not vote YES for scraps and the 10% of the membership that think they alone should get all the coin will be left out in the cold until something fair for everyone is agreed on by the membership. The league feels the same way. Smart teams go cheap and short till then because the new CBA will impose strict limits on the number of players getting big money. Bridge him and as part of the same strategy get ready to unload Nylander if he doesn't start the season productively.

Nothing has really changed. The league and it's players were fine with this cap structure from 05-11, then things got broken with backdiving deals and expectations got out of whack.

 

[nuck]

Pretty stupid if you ask me. Why give up so many years to any club? He could have got that $$$ with less term. Fire that agent. Great for Sabres. Bad for players.

You need to go back to 2017 and look at the market. $10M per without cracking 60pts was record setting money for the production. Kane and Kopitar had to win Cups to get there. There is no chance he could have got the same money in year 3 from any other club, and the term is the only reason why Buffalo wrote the big check. 53rd in league scoring and $10M. Fire that owner

 

[Throw More Waffles]

In the next CBA negotiations, 90% of the membership will not vote YES for scraps and the 10% of the membership that think they alone should get all the coin will be left out in the cold until something fair for everyone is agreed on by the membership. The league feels the same way. Smart teams go cheap and short till then because the new CBA will impose strict limits on the number of players getting big money. Bridge him and as part of the same strategy get ready to unload Nylander if he doesn't start the season productively.

Yeah, I agree. Look at that chart. I'm not sure why the majority of players would agree to that nonsense.

Also, how is it not on Matthews/Marner etc. conscience? Them fighting tooth and nail for every single last PENNY they can get, at the expense of everyone else on that graph. Their friends and teammates.

It MUST create locker room problems. I can't see how it couldn't.

 

[nuck]

Yeah, I agree. Look at that chart. I'm not sure why the majority of players would agree to that nonsense.

Also, how is it not on Matthews/Marner etc. conscience? Them fighting tooth and nail for every single last PENNY they can get, at the expense of everyone else on that graph. Their friends and teammates.

It MUST create locker room problems. I can't see how it couldn't.

Plus at the expense of their older selves. The previous system has allowed the high end vets to command top dollar into their senior years and maybe one in four actually earns it. Pay me what I am worth goes both ways. Its simple. No retirement contracts any more means the 30+ guys are earning their pay every year or they aren't paid. No more Lucic, or Ericksson or Marleau deals but they can still get the money when they actually deliver. Maybe a bit unfair compared to the RFAs who are guaranteed even if they have an off year, but you can't suck and blow at the same time. The money needs to come from somewhere.

 

[shakes]

Haha no.

We work in the same company, and "produce" comparably, with you having a slightly better year. I have certain compensable skills that you don't and increased responsibility (that I succeeded with) that allow me to command a higher wage in the industry at large.

We're not getting the same raise.

You really can tell from the way people write how much real world knowledge they have. What you wrote is absolutely true and have seen it many times in my working career. I know two amazing sales reps who produce similar numbers but during the last round of lay-offs, one was let go while the other stayed on. He couldn't or wouldn't understand that there was more to it than just numbers.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

You need to go back to 2017 and look at the market. $10M per without cracking 60pts was record setting money for the production. Kane and Kopitar had to win Cups to get there. There is no chance he could have got the same money in year 3 from any other club, and the term is the only reason why Buffalo wrote the big check. 53rd in league scoring and $10M. Fire that owner

Sorry yes it is Buffalo. But it looks like a great deal today.

 

[ACC1224]

any word on any of the other rfa negotiations?
curious if they are as difficult as this is perceived to be.

 

[Mess]

I am ok with a 10m x 8. These kids don't want that, they want 12m x 8, it doesn't work and isn't reasonable.

Apparently Dubas according to rumours (Chris Johnson Sportsnet IIRC) is offering $10 -$10.5 mil X 8 year contract for Marner.

The theory is if Marner wants double digit AAV, he will need to give max term or perhaps $10 mil X 7 years ($70 mil) or $10.5 mil X 8 years ($84 mil).

So through the process of deductive reasoning, Marner is rumoured turning down an offersheet at $12 mil AAV X 7 years [= $84 mil] and wanting shorter term is because that is the same total money as $10.5 mil X 8 years [=$84 mil].

So for only 1 more year service he would stay with the Leafs for the next 8 years @ 10.5 mil AAV as opposed to getting a $12 mil AAV but then likely Leafs walking away from a $84 mil OS and Marner ending playing somewhere else. For the same money why would he switch teams?

So people calling Marner greedy if he in fact turned down $84 mil X 7 OS, its more about business as his own team has apparently an $84 mil offer on the table for him to sign. The only difference is 8 vs 7 years service, but that 1 year means leaving vs staying.

That is why he is seeking $10.5 mil X 5 contract from the Leafs, or $10.5 mil X 5 OS from someone with the hopes Leafs matching. It a ridiculous rate for 5 years (only 1 UFA) by Leafs, but that is the OS threshold for 2 X 1st + 2nd + 3rd comp picks which some team might test the Leafs with..

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Sorry yes it is Buffalo. But it looks like a great deal today.

It certainly looks more reasonable today, but I wouldn't say it looks "great".

Eichel put up worse numbers than Aho last year.
Aho just signed for 8.5 aav

 

[ShaneFalco]

Still can't believe some are fine with totally overpaying Marner and yet go on and on about Nylander's over-payment

 

[shakes]

In the next CBA negotiations, 90% of the membership will not vote YES for scraps and the 10% of the membership that think they alone should get all the coin will be left out in the cold until something fair for everyone is agreed on by the membership. The league feels the same way. Smart teams go cheap and short till then because the new CBA will impose strict limits on the number of players getting big money. Bridge him and as part of the same strategy get ready to unload Nylander if he doesn't start the season productively.

The best players in the league will get their money. You are kidding yourself if you think otherwise. You really think that the players will vote to allow the owners to put further limits on salary? That's what the salary cap is for. The owners would LOVE it if they would though but looking at the big picture, there is no way in hell that they do this.

 

[stickty111]

Still can't believe some are fine with totally overpaying Marner and yet go on and on about Nylander's over-payment

2 reasons
1. Mitch works hard
2. He is apparently perfect.

 

[BlueForever75]

any word on any of the other rfa negotiations?
curious if they are as difficult as this is perceived to be.

Rumor had it that Brayden Point was offer sheeted by Canadiens prior to them offer sheeting Aho. Point turned it down. Which tells me that the offer was similar to what they offer sheeted Aho with.

This is telling because the rest of the league doesn't think as crazy as the Marner camp when it comes to what he is worth. If Point was offer sheeted in the 8-9 million range, as a center.....Marner camp doesn't have a leg to stand on.

Good news is that TB feels that Point is confident that they and his camp will come to a resolution. This is why he turned it down. This means a Point deal is not far off, and it will set the market for Marner and Rantanen.

Things are about to get good.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Aho is not one of his 10 closest comparables. I'm not sure why you are arguing as if we should toss out his ten best comparables in favor of a bad one?

Who are these 10 players?

Why is Aho a bad comparable for nylander?

Do you also think Aho is a bad comparable for marner?

 

[thewave]

Apparently Dubas according to rumours (Chris Johnson Sportsnet IIRC) is offering $10 -$10.5 mil X 8 year contract for Marner.

The theory is if Marner wants double digit AAV, he will need to give max term or perhaps $10 mil X 7 years ($70 mil) or $10.5 mil X 8 years ($84 mil).

So through the process of deductive reasoning, Marner is rumoured turning down an offersheet at $12 mil AAV X 7 years [= $84 mil] and wanting shorter term is because that is the same total money as $10.5 mil X 8 years [=$84 mil].

So for only 1 more year service he would stay with the Leafs for the next 8 years @ 10.5 mil AAV as opposed to getting a $12 mil AAV but then likely Leafs walking away from a $84 mil OS and Marner ending playing somewhere else. For the same money why would he switch teams?

So people calling Marner greedy if he in fact turned down $84 mil X 7 OS, its more about business as his own team has apparently an $84 mil offer on the table for him to sign. The only difference is 8 vs 7 years service, but that 1 year means leaving vs staying.

That is why he is seeking $10.5 mil X 5 contract from the Leafs, or $10.5 mil X 5 OS from someone with the hopes Leafs matching. It a ridiculous rate for 5 years (only 1 UFA) by Leafs, but that is the OS threshold for 2 X 1st + 2nd + 3rd comp picks which some team might test the Leafs with..

The Dubas offer is more than fair. I honestly don't believe there is a 12m offer, 4x unprotected 1sts? Madness

 

[ACC1224]

Rumor had it that Brayden Point was offer sheeted by Canadiens prior to them offer sheeting Aho. Point turned it down. Which tells me that the offer was similar to what they offer sheeted Aho with.

This is telling because the rest of the league doesn't think as crazy as the Marner camp when it comes to what he is worth. If Point was offer sheeted in the 8-9 million range, as a center.....Marner camp doesn't have a leg to stand on.

Good news is that TB feels that Point is confident that they and his camp will come to a resolution. This is why he turned it down. This means a Point deal is not far off, and it will set the market for Marner and Rantanen.

Things are about to get good.

That's a whole whack of assumptions, that don't really make a lot of sense.

 

[Ciccio1980]

3 reasons mitch is local
Nylander isn't
The same treatment sundin got after playing here for over 10 years
Compared to gilmour who played here 4years

 

[HoweHullOrr]

any word on any of the other rfa negotiations?
curious if they are as difficult as this is perceived to be.

Apparently Dubas according to rumours (Chris Johnson Sportsnet IIRC) is offering $10 -$10.5 mil X 8 year contract for Marner.

The theory is if Marner wants double digit AAV, he will need to give max term or perhaps $10 mil X 7 years ($70 mil) or $10.5 mil X 8 years ($84 mil).

The reason Marner is rumoured turning down an offersheet at $12 mil AAV X 7 years [= $84 mil] and wanting shorter term is because that is the same total as $10.5 mil X 8 years [=$84 mil].

So for only 1 more year service he would stay with the Leafs for the next 8 years @ 10.5 mil AAV as opposed to getting a $12 mil AAV but then likely Leafs walking away from a $84 mil OS and Marner ending playing somewhere else. For the same money why would he switch teams?

That is why he is seeking $10.5 mil X 5 contract from the Leafs, or $10.5 mil X 5 OS from someone with the hopes Leafs matching. It a ridiculous rate for 5 years (only 1 UFA) by Leafs, but that is the OS threshold for 2 X 1st + 2nd + 3rd comp picks which some team might test the Leafs with..

I've stopped following this. How the other RFA negotiations are going is a good question though. With the Aho 5 year contract, it does look like there's a trend to shorter contracts for RFAs. Nylander & Matthews are 2 other examples. Our window got shorter, or minimally, the job of managing the cap just got tougher.

I also think that as soon as Tavares got his $11m, it sent a signal to our young stud ELCs to increase their salaries. This was a team being built from the draft with young stars up to that point, but that changed with the Tavares acquisition. Might as well follow the leader at that point.

Anyhow, at this point, I just wonder if this drags out like Nylander scenario did.