Value of: Marner as a UFA

[Ulysses31]

If he stays in Toronto he's not getting more than Matthews so there's a hard cap at $13.5AAV there. let's assume it's $12.5-13 x 8. I think this is the most likely option.

If he leaves Toronto then he's just gonna go max money with an NMC. A team would be crazy to pay more than Draisaitl @ $14m AAV but maybe someone is desperate enough to do that but he's clearly not better than Leon and he's also not a C but he is like 1.5 years younger so you are getting more 'prime years' I suppose.

If he doesn't work out in Toronto, I gotta think he wants to go to a contender since he hasn't won anything at the NHL level or come even remotely close. This next contract is gonna determine the course of his career so it would be odd to go to a rebuilding team just based on the hope that they could be competitive one day. But also who knows, maybe he just wants the biggest bag possible and that's fine too.

well matthews' salary is 13.25.

IMO i think the MINIMUM he would accept from toronto is 13.5x8. be shocked if he took any less.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

well matthews' salary is 13.25.

IMO i think the MINIMUM he would accept from toronto is 13.5x8. be shocked if he took any less.

Sorry - I thought it was $13.5 but my point still stands. Marner doesn’t get more than Matthews. If that’s his line in the sand then he’s not staying.

 

[Summer Rose]

Sorry - I thought it was $13.5 but my point still stands. Marner doesn’t get more than Matthews. If that’s his line in the sand then he’s not staying.

Good point, I'd say. I think Toronto offers him 13x8 but at least one team will offer him 14x7. If that's the case, I would guess he stays in Toronto. My reason for guessing that is that players often look at the total value of the contract instead of the AAV. 13x8 is more guaranteed money total than 14x7, and only Toronto can offer him that 8th year. If those are the offers on the table for him, then he'd be a little silly to not take Toronto's offer.

That said, if he disappears in the playoffs, Toronto may not offer him 13x8, if they offer him a contract at all. Either way, he's going to take the highest offer he can get in terms of total contract value.

I am of course not taking the tax factor into consideration. I'm not sure if any of the teams in low/no income tax states are in a position to make a 14x7 offer to him though. Of the two teams I actually follow, Tampa Bay absolutely cannot offer him 14x7, but Utah can, and I'd gladly take him on Utah for 14x7.

 

[hangman005]

Good point, I'd say. I think Toronto offers him 13x8 but at least one team will offer him 14x7. If that's the case, I would guess he stays in Toronto. My reason for guessing that is that players often look at the total value of the contract instead of the AAV. 13x8 is more guaranteed money total than 14x7, and only Toronto can offer him that 8th year. If those are the offers on the table for him, then he'd be a little silly to not take Toronto's offer.

That said, if he disappears in the playoffs, Toronto may not offer him 13x8, if they offer him a contract at all. Either way, he's going to take the highest offer he can get in terms of total contract value.

I am of course not taking the tax factor into consideration. I'm not sure if any of the teams in low/no income tax states are in a position to make a 14x7 offer to him though. Of the two teams I actually follow, Tampa Bay absolutely cannot offer him 14x7, but Utah can, and I'd gladly take him on Utah for 14x7.

Vegas will offer 7 years @ 1.5Mil and the promise he never has to watch my only fans.

 

[Summer Rose]

Vegas will offer 7 years @ 1.5Mil and the promise he never has to watch my only fans.

The problem with that offer, despite it being easily worth more than enough to make up the difference in salary, is that every team in the league has the cap space to make that offer. "You don't have to watch hangman's OnlyFans" is a non-cash benefit that doesn't count against the cap.

 

[hangman005]

The problem with that offer, despite it being easily worth more than enough to make up the difference in salary, is that every team in the league has the cap space to make that offer. "You don't have to watch hangman's OnlyFans" is a non-cash benefit that doesn't count against the cap.

They can make the cash offer, but they can't stop me making him watch

 

[Legion34]

Canes have more than enough

Again he has repeatedly refused his NMC to waive and we specifically know that he said no to Carolina.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Again he has repeatedly refused his NMC to waive and we specifically know that he said no to Carolina.

Again, it was just a comment that 'no contending team had the cap space to offer him that type of contract' which is what we were responding.

Also, it's been beaten to death but not waiving your NMC during a playoff push and not willing to sign a UFA contract in a destination are two different things. They may be one in the same here but no one except Marner's camp knows that.

The example of Kadri, another local to SW Ontario, has been brought up where he denied a trade to Calgary because he wanted to stay with the Leafs at the time (had nothing to do with Calgary specifically). Then after being traded to the Avs and becoming a UFA later he signs his big money deal with the Flames. So, it happens. Maybe that's the case here. Maybe it's not.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Good point, I'd say. I think Toronto offers him 13x8 but at least one team will offer him 14x7. If that's the case, I would guess he stays in Toronto. My reason for guessing that is that players often look at the total value of the contract instead of the AAV. 13x8 is more guaranteed money total than 14x7, and only Toronto can offer him that 8th year. If those are the offers on the table for him, then he'd be a little silly to not take Toronto's offer.

That said, if he disappears in the playoffs, Toronto may not offer him 13x8, if they offer him a contract at all. Either way, he's going to take the highest offer he can get in terms of total contract value.

I am of course not taking the tax factor into consideration. I'm not sure if any of the teams in low/no income tax states are in a position to make a 14x7 offer to him though. Of the two teams I actually follow, Tampa Bay absolutely cannot offer him 14x7, but Utah can, and I'd gladly take him on Utah for 14x7.

Keep in mind that the endorsement value of being in Toronto is going to higher for Marner than a random market in the US most likely.

I'm sure his preference is to stay with Toronto. He's from from Markham and grew up a Leafs fan. He is living his dream at the highest level. I would think as long as they offer him in that $12.5+ range then he stays. I think the real question though is if he is taking a lesser amount to stay vs test the market does he actually want an 8 year deal?

He's gonna be 28 at the start of the season so maybe he does something like $13 x 3 or 4 and then go for another big money deal in a few years when the cap is even higher.

 

[Summer Rose]

Keep in mind that the endorsement value of being in Toronto is going to higher for Marner than a random market in the US most likely.

I'm sure his preference is to stay with Toronto. He's from from Markham and grew up a Leafs fan. He is living his dream at the highest level. I would think as long as they offer him in that $12.5+ range then he stays. I think the real question though is if he is taking a lesser amount to stay vs test the market does he actually want an 8 year deal?

He's gonna be 28 at the start of the season so maybe he does something like $13 x 3 or 4 and then go for another big money deal in a few years when the cap is even higher.

That's a very good question. He'd be taking a big risk and betting on himself if he took only 3-4 years in order to gamble on a bigger payday with his contract after that one. I know I'd take the safer bet of trying to negotiate the best salary I could with the 8 years that only Toronto could offer me (even though I wouldn't personally want to play in Toronto, but if I actually were an NHL player I'm not sure I'd actually be willing to sacrifice that 8th year in order to high tail it out of there), but I'm not Mitch Marner.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

This relationship seems so dysfunctional.

 

[NVious]

9-11 on a true contender
11.5-13 on the Leafs
13.5+ on bottom feeders/bubble teams with cap

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

That's a very good question. He'd be taking a big risk and betting on himself if he took only 3-4 years in order to gamble on a bigger payday with his contract after that one. I know I'd take the safer bet of trying to negotiate the best salary I could with the 8 years that only Toronto could offer me (even though I wouldn't personally want to play in Toronto, but if I actually were an NHL player I'm not sure I'd actually be willing to sacrifice that 8th year in order to high tail it out of there), but I'm not Mitch Marner.

It would be a risk no doubt but I think it will just come down to how important is getting every last dollar. None of the Leafs big 4 have made any concessions to take a discount in any way. Marner + Matthews in particular have been pretty adverse to signing anything beyond 5 year contracts as well which is very much not the norm across the league for star players.

 

[Ulysses31]

Sorry - I thought it was $13.5 but my point still stands. Marner doesn’t get more than Matthews. If that’s his line in the sand then he’s not staying.

but matthews could have gotten 14x8 easily, he opted for shorter contract. IMO his contract is better than a 8X13.5 by a considerable margin even tho his aav is a tad lower.

 

[caliamad]

Sounds like a match made in heaven for ducks. Question will he accept the state taxes.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

I still think he re-signs in Toronto, but if he does go to free agency, someone will be offering $13.5m-$14m for him for sure.

It is rare that any player that is better than a ppg and in their prime becomes available like this.

His prime was 25 and now you would be getting 99% of that with a few points of drop off each year, and typically there's a fairly big drop after 30.

He's also hasn't played 70 games in the last two years.

Obviously teams are going to have to pay, but is the money going to be worth it for a guy who gives you 70-75 games and less than 100 pts as a winger.

Lot of question marks to be paying 14-15 million per for 7 years.

 

[Mr Nogatco]

every team except toronto & carolina will be interested. marner wants to get paid, so its which bubble teams with cap space are closest to playoffs. also, which of those teams have a center to feed him the puck. if he is thinking this is his retirement contract, then bedard, celebrini or fantilli are the guys he wants to play with.

what do you think the odds are he re-signs in Toronto? Sounds like you’re bullish he hits FA

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Sounds like a match made in heaven for ducks. Question will he accept the state taxes.

If the online tax calculators I've found are accurate, overall taxes (federal + state/province + local) are a little lower (about 2.5%) in Anaheim than in Toronto. But the cost of living in California is about 18% higher.

 

[Strangle]

If he's smart, he'll go somewhere like Anaheim,SJ, Seattle or Utah.

Each can pay him big $$
Each are non hockey markets where he won't face same pressure he's been ill equipped to handle in Toronto

I don’t mean this to come across as snarky, but I don’t understand why people think Marner or Matthews or Nylander or Tavares or any maple leaf is “under pressure”

There is absolutely zero pressure on any of these players, which might actually be part of the problem here.

 

[Legion34]

Which is a possibility, but again, unless you have Marner on speed dial, your guess is as good as the rest of ours

And LeBrun has already mentioned Carolina will definitely be taking another shot at Marner this off-season. If they got a "No, I don't want to play in Carolina" from the Marner camp at the deadline, they wouldn't be taking that second shot.

??? They can’t speak to him. He refused to waive.

They also literally traded for rantanen who clearly didn’t want to play there.

Why would Marner give up the extra year for no reasobn

 

[Voight]

I agree with most of what you've said, but I don't think a 9th playoff failure does anything to tank his value. Hell, even if for the first time in his career he produces in the playoffs at a rate appropriate for his cap hit, I don't think that'd increase his value much either.

He is what he is at this point. A 90something point player that disappears when the going gets tough. But unfortunately, teams have been paying 8 figure cap hits to those kinds of players for nearly a decade now. Marner's already had one of those contracts himself, Matthews has had 2, Nylander, Tavares, Pettersson, Panarin...

Even if the Leafs finally smarten up and kick his bitch ass to the curb (which I doubt) there'll be 15+ other teams lining up for the privilege of paying him $14m aav. Because ultimately, most teams care more about getting those extra 2-4 games of home playoff revenue than they do about actually winning the cup. And Marner at least helps get you into the top 16 before he disappears

This and any GM would be over the moon if they signed the top free agent available. Would get them lots of positive headlines too. Two things they love most - splashy free agent signings and headlines.

 

[Voight]

85 points Suzuki at 7.9 million? Yes please!
95 points Marner at 14 million? Hell No!!

Marner needs to go to a non hockey market. He's not just vanilla soft physically, he's also soft mentally. Kid is not made to play in hockey mecas!

If he thinks TO fans and media are tough he will implode in Montreal.

This is only the second time in Suzukis career he'll have score 80 points, Marners done that five times while pacing for that two other seasons.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

??? They can’t speak to him. He refused to waive.

They can speak with him if the Leafs allowed it, which it sounds like they did. They were told his focus was on the Leafs right now, which is fair enough. But if he and the Leafs don't see eye to eye in the summer, Carolina is expected to be in on him.

They also literally traded for rantanen who clearly didn’t want to play there.

Yeah, I'm not opening that can of worms again. Believe what you'd like, even if it goes against what everyone involved has said.

Why would Marner give up the extra year for no reasobn

Like I said, I don't expect him to leave Toronto, because I don't think the difference between what the Leafs would pay him and what other teams would pay him in UFA would be enough for him to leave.

 

[Oneiro]

Any problems in the playoffs are going to be rationalized away as a Toronto only phenomenon. And that's probably the correct call.

 

[frontsfan67]

If he wants his money I see him heading to Chicago

May not win a cup though