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Prospect Info: Marlies, Cyclones, and Prospect Discussion

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ChazzMichaelMichaels said:
The Athletic (Scott Wheeler) ranks the Leafs prospect pool 28th in his latest rankings.

1. Cowan (projects as a top 9 forward)
2. Minten (projects as a 4th line C)
3. Danford (projects as a 3rd pair dman)
4. Akhtyamov (solid NHL goalie)
5. Hildeby (possible #2 or good organizational depth goalie)
6. Grebenkin (bottom 6 winger)
7. Niemela (5-8 D somewhere else)
8. Chadwick (7-8 D with possible upside)
9. Holinka (might play some NHL games)
10. Villeneuve (possible call up option one day)
11. Tverberg
12. Quillan
13. Johansson
14. Moldenhauer
15. Miller
Click to expand...

I'm impressed they weren't ranked dead last, that is a sad list of prospects. Very few of them are progressing this season too.
 
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ChazzMichaelMichaels said:
The Athletic (Scott Wheeler) ranks the Leafs prospect pool 28th in his latest rankings.

1. Cowan (projects as a top 9 forward)
2. Minten (projects as a 4th line C)
3. Danford (projects as a 3rd pair dman)
Click to expand...
Acknowledging that any prospect can completely bust and flame out, those are fine conservative projections. Safe bets. But that doesn't cover their upside. I don't know if Wheeler explicitly caps them them at his projections, but from his track record sticking his neck out on guys like Minten/Danford having innate traits and tools that make it so no one should be surprised if Minten turns into a shutdown 2/3C and Danford into solid mid pair DFD regardless of their junior production isn't in the cards.

Sure, project them as a 3W, 4C, 5-6RD. But don't value them as if that's the max.
 
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4thline said:
Acknowledging that any prospect can completely bust and flame out, those are fine conservative projections. Safe bets. But that doesn't cover their upside. I don't know if Wheeler explicitly caps them them at his projections, but from his track record sticking his neck out on guys like Minten/Danford having innate traits and tools that make it so no one should be surprised if Minten turns into a shutdown 2/3C and Danford into solid mid pair DFD regardless of their junior production isn't in the cards.

Sure, project them as a 3W, 4C, 5-6RD. But don't value them as if that's the max.
Click to expand...

There is probably a range....

Minten can probably break in next year at 4C...and I see 3C upside

Cowan I am thinking middle 6 forward

Danford I can see on a 2nd pair #4 type defensive defenseman but he plays a real nasty style of hockey so if he's a physical defensively capable 3rd pairing guy like a Scott Mayfield, that is useful.
 
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4thline said:
Acknowledging that any prospect can completely bust and flame out, those are fine conservative projections. Safe bets. But that doesn't cover their upside. I don't know if Wheeler explicitly caps them them at his projections, but from his track record sticking his neck out on guys like Minten/Danford having innate traits and tools that make it so no one should be surprised if Minten turns into a shutdown 2/3C and Danford into solid mid pair DFD regardless of their junior production isn't in the cards.

Sure, project them as a 3W, 4C, 5-6RD. But don't value them as if that's the max.
Click to expand...
A late 1st has like a 40-45% chance of playing 100+ games and there's nothing so far to suggest that Danford was a particularly good pick at #31 so projecting him as a 3rd pairing D is generous, not conservative.
 
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Cap'n Flavour said:
A late 1st has like a 40-45% chance of playing 100+ games and there's nothing so far to suggest that Danford was a particularly good pick at #31 so projecting him as a 3rd pairing D is generous, not conservative.
Click to expand...
First line of the post- "Acknowledging that any prospect can completely bust and flame out"

It goes without saying that for all but the top handful of prospects league wide the raw probabilities say that any "projection" higher than outright bust to depth-fringe NHLer is betting against the odds. Any and all discussion of upside beyond that is reading very fine lines, and under the mutual understanding that you're talking about what it's reasonable to expect them to turn into IF they beat the odds and turn into anything at all.

The fact is that that you don't draft a Danford at 31 because you think the upside is a right handed Benoit. You do it because the upside is Carlo/Cernak/Lindgren/Middleton/Manson, Vlasic (Chicago) ,Dillon, Edmunson. The kid was voted by coaches to be best defensive defenseman in the OHL eastern conference as a 17 year old, while also placing top 3 in shot blocking and hardest worker. He's got NHL size. Scouts see the skating and tools that gives them hope of it translating. The Wheeler's of the world see the lack of production and offensive upside and so lazily cap ALL upside

So yes. It is fair to project him as a 3rd pair defenseman. No one should be disappointed with that result. But it's not an absolute, everything goes right best case scenario- there is legitimate reason to hope for more and value him higher. Minten is in the same boat.
 
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theleafsnation.com

Why you should be keeping an eye on Leafs prospect Chas Sharpe

Like a lot of contending teams, the Toronto Maple Leafs' prospect pool...
theleafsnation.com theleafsnation.com

  • 6’3” and 201 pound RHD
  • 21 years old and in his rookie season with the Cyclones
  • Currently leads all ECHL defencemen in goals with 12
  • Second on his team in scoring
  • Excellent puck mover, wicked shot
  • Takes pride in 200 foot game
 
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