Speculation: Marchand to Edmonton

[TFHockey]

Hes not exactly a "random" hes a former radio host, Former HF member, has a blog that followed the oilers since 2005 and writes for the athletic.

Im not sure i'd say he's an insider but he probably does have some contacts in the Oilers org, i think he even briefly worked for the Oilers.

He's still on the radio. He has his own show. The Lowdown with Lowetide on Sports 1440

 

[Oilslick941611]

He's still on the radio. He has his own show. The Lowdown with Lowetide on Sports 1440

thanks, I dont live in Edmonton anymore, so i was unaware he was still on the radio.

 

[TFHockey]

thanks, I dont live in Edmonton anymore, so i was unaware he was still on the radio.

He's still probably the best local radio host we have.

 

[boltsfan86]

Some $$$ has to go back the other way or retention has to be involved.. or both. This is just the economics of the situation in Edmonton.

That's what I was trying to say, sorry if I was unclear. My point is that in order for Boston to retain enough salary to make the deal work, it would probably cost the Oilers Savoie, assuming the retention is close to 50% which would leave the Oilers with a few million left to pursue a trade for a depth piece. I don't think Boston would be interested in any of the roster players Edmonton would want to give them as cap dumps, maybe Arvidsson but IDK.

I don't think Boston is getting a first on top of Savoie. Maybe Savoie straight up or Savoie and money going back, but he's our best prospect by a country mile and really breaking out at the AHL level right now. His point totals aren't gaudy but the Condors stink and the coach likes ultra defensive hockey.

My longwinded ramble might not have made sense. My bad. I was thinking the trade would be:

Marchand (Boston retains 50%) for Savoie + EDM 2025 1st

Boston fills some pretty empty cupboards, Edmonton gets a terrific player that instantly boosts their chances of winning over this season or the next few if they can re-sign him. I'm not a GM though. Selfishly, I hope the Oilers fleece Boston, lol.

 

[Cup or Bust]

It sounds like I will be getting the grain of salt on this one.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

That's what I was trying to say, sorry if I was unclear. My point is that in order for Boston to retain enough salary to make the deal work, it would probably cost the Oilers Savoie, assuming the retention is close to 50% which would leave the Oilers with a few million left to pursue a trade for a depth piece. I don't think Boston would be interested in any of the roster players Edmonton would want to give them as cap dumps, maybe Arvidsson but IDK.


My longwinded ramble might not have made sense. My bad. I was thinking the trade would be:

Marchand (Boston retains 50%) for Savoie + EDM 2025 1st

Boston fills some pretty empty cupboards, Edmonton gets a terrific player that instantly boosts their chances of winning over this season or the next few if they can re-sign him. I'm not a GM though. Selfishly, I hope the Oilers fleece Boston, lol.

Oh no yeah it made sense. I just don't think Edmonton's going to give up a first on top of Savoie. Marchand's a great player but with the comments he's made previously about the city I don't think he'd re-sign here and Savoie+1st is a steep price for a pure rental.

 

[Absurdity]

In my opinion, Brazeau makes more sense for the Oilers. He has a cheaper contract and will probably only cost a 2nd or 3rd to obtain.

 

[Dr Pepper]

Boston trading their captain and ranking veteran, in the middle of a playoff hunt?

Doesn't seem too likely unless they drop out of the mix completely.

 

[Fourier]

Marchand has a cap hit of $6.125M, Oilers have $5M in cap space currently. They also have Kane on LTIR but is expected back at the end of February and carries a cap hit of $5.125M. Oilers need to move money out to make a Marchand trade happen.

There is no chance Kane is back by the end of February. He had knee surgery recently which will set his rehab from his core issues back. He has just been on the ice recently for a very light skate and has a long way to go before he is ready to play.

If Boston is trading Marchand they have pretty much thrown in the towel. So you can start with that assumption if you are looking at a trade for Marchand. At the deadline he will be owed about $250K in real money. Boston has all three retention spots. Single or even double retention would be cheap even if it has to be with other teams. The cost to Boston to retain 50% would be about $125K. That is a late round pick. The additional 25% would be about $75K for the third team. That's again a rather minimal cost.

Marchand would also replace someone already on the roster as would Kane if he comes back. Even of Kane is not going to be out for the whole season, which I suspect he will, the Oilers could fit him in if such a trade was on the table. All that said I don't see this happening for other reasons.

 

[The Hockey Tonk Man]

Ehhh. That contract is approaching negative value for me. 5.125 for another near after this one and pacing for 30 points while getting 17+ minutes a night? Sub 50% on the draw? Nasty business.

Yeah he's been not very good this year. Feel he's still a very good third line center on the right team, but the Bruins have been trying him in the top 6 and it's not working.

 

[BergyWho37]

Boston's not fetching a top pairing RD for a depreciating Carlo and a Marchand rental, c'mon now.

I don't see it happening because Edmonton won't want to nuke their depth but something like this is workable from a $ standpoint:

Marchand at 50%

for

Edmonton 1st
Henrique
SOR (32nd overall 2024)
lesser pick or prospect

We'd then have to swing a separate deal for someone like Evans to fill in at 3C.

IF Henrique was a UFA maybe but we have no use for another 3rd liner pretty sure we’d get a better offer elsewhere. I do understand you mostly making this offer to make the money work.

 

[dredeye]

Skinner and pick or two for Marchand half retained easy peasy

We would want an actual strong return for our captain. That offer doesn’t get it close

 

[McSuper]

Skinner and pick or two for Marchand half retained easy peasy

And why does Boston want Skinner? If Boston is going to rebuild they can get a 1st for Marchand easily. Lessor players get a 1st plus.

As an Oiler fan I would love it but it isn’t realistic.

 

[kdog82]

If the Bruins consider moving Marchand, there would be a bidding war from true contending teams. Marchand puts a contender over the top imo. He's still producing this year on a team that resembles an AHL lineup some nights.

That being said, from the Oilers the Bruins would likely ask for Sam O'Reilly + 2026 1st + Jeff Skinner for Marchand (50% retention)

 

[VeteranPresence]

That being said, from the Oilers the Bruins would likely ask for Sam O'Reilly + 2026 1st + Jeff Skinner for Marchand (50% retention)

There is maybe one rental a year worth that kind of package and Marchand ain’t it.

 

[LTIR]

If the Bruins consider moving Marchand, there would be a bidding war from true contending teams. Marchand puts a contender over the top imo. He's still producing this year on a team that resembles an AHL lineup some nights.

That being said, from the Oilers the Bruins would likely ask for Sam O'Reilly + 2026 1st + Jeff Skinner for Marchand (50% retention)

Swap O'Reilly with LaChance and there is... a chance.
6'5 winger from BOS Uni

 

[Fourier]

That's what I was trying to say, sorry if I was unclear. My point is that in order for Boston to retain enough salary to make the deal work, it would probably cost the Oilers Savoie, assuming the retention is close to 50% which would leave the Oilers with a few million left to pursue a trade for a depth piece. I don't think Boston would be interested in any of the roster players Edmonton would want to give them as cap dumps, maybe Arvidsson but IDK.


My longwinded ramble might not have made sense. My bad. I was thinking the trade would be:

Marchand (Boston retains 50%) for Savoie + EDM 2025 1st

Boston fills some pretty empty cupboards, Edmonton gets a terrific player that instantly boosts their chances of winning over this season or the next few if they can re-sign him. I'm not a GM though. Selfishly, I hope the Oilers fleece Boston, lol.

If Boston is trading Marchand they have bailed on this season so cap space is not going to matter much to them. At the trade deadline the cost of retention on a UFA is based mostly on the amount of real money still owed. At this point Marchand is still owed about $330K. At the deadline it would be about $250 K. So 50% retention costs between say $125-165K. That is a late round pick. There is no way the Oilers add Savoie to get retention and I doubt they would even consider Savoie in any deal for a rental unless that player was 100% sure of re-signing. Even then I don't see Savoie being the guy they would include.

 

[Matthews4Calder]

Marchand and Perry 2 biggest twits and douchebags on the same team. Do it Bowman.

 

[LTIR]

If Boston is trading Marchand they have bailed on this season so cap space is not going to matter much to them. At the trade deadline the cost of retention on a UFA is based mostly on the amount of real money still owed. At this point Marchand is still owed about $330K. At the deadline it would be about $250 K. So 50% retention costs between say $125-165K. That is a late round pick. There is no way the Oilers add Savoie to get retention and I doubt they would even consider Savoie in any deal for a rental unless that player was 100% sure of re-signing. Even then I don't see Savoie being the guy they would include.

Meh, you can't really blame BOS fans from wanting the best prospect in return.
This is a nothing rumor with a source that was just a mod on these boards back in the day. It is a fun one mainly to speculate and dream.

 

[Fourier]

Meh, you can't really blame BOS fans from wanting the best prospect in return.
This is a nothing rumor with a source that was just a mod on these boards back in the day. It is a fun one mainly to speculate and dream.

I've already said several times that I don't see this happening. But if the deal is being discussed let's also be realistic about the actual cost. Savoie for $125K in real money retention is way off base.

I have no idea if the Bruins will trade Marchand. But lets say they do. He will get at a first plus something meaningful but not Savoie level I suspect with 50% retention. Moreover getting 75% retention would not cost much more because you would only be looking at about $75K in additional money. That is 7th round pick value or so. This makes him fairly attractive for a contender because it could be done without using much cap space.

I think you were suggesting 1st plus LaChance with additional retention by a third team for a 6th or 7th. I think that would be ok from an Oiler's perspective. Does Boston bite? Who knows.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

There is maybe one rental a year worth that kind of package and Marchand ain’t it.

LMAO Marchand is worth it, almost a perfect fit for the Oilers.

You are crazy

 

[VeteranPresence]

LMAO Marchand is worth it, almost a perfect fit for the Oilers.

You are crazy

The Oilers need a proven D and a G before they even consider giving up a 1st and top prospect for a 36-year-old winger. Marchand wouldn’t get the same offensive opportunities here and is extremely unlikely to re-sign. It makes no sense.

 

[CornKicker]

Money doesn't work, unless Edmonton sends back a piece that they don't want to move

thats a lie we would gladly send arvidson and skinner

 

[ManofSteel55]

thats a lie we would gladly send arvidson and skinner

I'm sure frustrated with Arvidsson. He hasn't come as advertised. Skinner is playing well, even if he isn't getting much time in the top 6. His all around game is looking quite good recently. I think he just might earn himself back up to a scoring line spot in the near future.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I'm sure frustrated with Arvidsson. He hasn't come as advertised. Skinner is playing well, even if he isn't getting much time in the top 6. His all around game is looking quite good recently. I think he just might earn himself back up to a scoring line spot in the near future.

Keep in mind with Arvidsson is his current 6.6% shooting percentage matches his career low (aside from his rookie year). He has 6 seasons shooting 10% or better. I'd be leery to sell low on him right now as that will likely turn around at some point.