Hockey Outsider
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- Jan 16, 2005
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I explained this in another post. What you'd need to calculate wouldn't be an exact post-tax income. You'd just need to use a simple consistent formula that gets you a good estimate.
You don't have to constantly update it and you don't want to. Just come up with a cap number when the contract is signed and that number stays with the player even if they are traded and their actual income changes. The point is to avoid systematic biases where some teams have $10m+ pay advantages over others, not to come up with something that exactly replicates actual post-tax income down to the penny.
Point by point
- yes you're calculating the cap hit for each player and then adding it up. That's how the current system works too, it's not that complicated. I could estimate your tax hit in thirty seconds if I know your income and what each of the tax brackets are.
- I'm not aware of any systemic bias where some teams are favored more than others because of players living in one jurisdiction while playing in another. This is a current issue, so would be no worse in a post-tax salary cap, and I'm not sure there is a need to change it.
- One way to handle this is to count bonuses as having the same implied tax as regular salary. That would just be implied for the purposes of counting the post-tax salary cap. It wouldn't be based on the actual tax bill and wouldn't have to be.
- You can just factor in an average amount of deductions for an athlete in that location and bracket and use that. Who makes these decisions? The formula is bargained and it goes in the CBA, like everything else. You know how complicated the CBA is? This isn't more complicated.
- Road taxes mostly average out across players, no need to even bother with small differences like that.
My point is - an after-tax cap hit, by definition, is based upon the various factors that go into determining a player's income taxes. If the league is going to calculate a number, they would presumably want to calculate an accurate number - otherwise why bother?
Here's an example that shows the difficulty. Look at the Leafs. Matthews and Marner had very similar remuneration in 2020 ($16.0 for Marner, $15.9M for Matthews). But Matthews' after-tax earnings are substantially higher than Marner's - even though they play on the same team.
Let's look at the signing bonus specifically. On the assumption that Matthews is a US resident, and Marner is a Canadian resident, Matthews would pay about $6.3M on his $15.2M signing bonus, while Marner would pay about $8.2M on his $15.3M signing bonus (before we start looking at deductions, jock taxes, etc). Remember, I'm not comparing a Leaf player to a Coyotes player. Both of them play on the same team, and despite their remuneration being almost identical, one of them gets to keep an extra $1.9M.
That highlights the folly in trying to calculate an after-tax salary cap - it requires far more work than looking at the tax rate in effect in a specific state or province. There are a ton of individual factors that go into the determination of what a player's after-tax earnings are. Two teammates with the same salary can have vastly different after-tax income. The notion that there's a "one size fits all" tax rate endemic to each team is simply wrong.
One of the obvious implications of creating an after-tax salary is it would incentivize Canadian teams to hire American players (because, in general, they'd have lower personal tax rates than Canadian players - though this is somewhat of a simplification). Given that the NHLPA is 40-45% Canadian (ballpark - someone can look up the exact number if they want), do you really think the players would vote for a change that would disadvantage almost half of the members?
All that being said - I see your point. You're saying that a partial adjustment is better than none. I can agree with that in theory - but in reality, it would come down to which adjustments are included, and which are excluded. Sure, that could get negotiated in the next collective agreement, but it's not hard to see that different parties would have different incentives, and these would have the unintended consequence of favouring certain types of players over others - which is the last thing you'd want in a collective agreement.
As I mentioned, I do this type of work for a living. Equalizing after-tax earnings between different jurisdictions is far more complicated than most people understand. The NHL could certainly enrich an army of lawyers and accountants to deal with this - but my guess is they understand the cost and complexity, and accept that (just like endorsement opportunities or climate), there just isn't a practical way to equalize this.