Man Minutes Lost

[Krishna]

Saw this idea on the main boards and thought it would fit in well here.

Op's thread :
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1553085

Is there a stat like this? Man Games Lost isn't all that useful because it makes all players equal. A 4th line goon missing time counts the same as your star player missing a game even though they shouldn't.

Man Minutes Lost wouldn't be perfect either, but it would be more accurate in terms of significance of players lost.

It's pretty self explanatory. You take the injured players Average TOI for that year, or past year if they haven't played and add them all up. You then take that total number and divide it by total Man Games Lost to find out the average minutes lost per player per game for the team. Their would also be a column where you only divide the total minutes lost by games played to see how much TOI your team has to account for per game with replacement players.

In the next post I'll do a Flyers Man Minutes Lost, but I'll include any healthy scratches and suspensions as well since I'm short on time tongiht.

Quick edit : This site should make it more accurate
http://www.mangameslost.com/nhl-man-games-lost-december-5-2013/

Click to read more...

 

[Krishna]

Flyers :
Adam Hall : 2 GL : 9:15 AV : 18:30 TMML
Andrej Meszaros : 15 GL : 16:43 AV : 250:45 TMML
Chris Pronger : 28 GL : 22.30 AV (From his last active season) : 630:00 TMML
Erik Gustaffson : 13 GL : 17:21 AV : 221:33 TMML
Hal Gill : 25 GL : 12:43 AV : 318:41 TMML
Jay Rosehill : 9 GL : 4:23 AV : 39:27 TMML
Kris Newbury : 5 GL : 5:02 AV : 25:10 TMML
Luke Schenn : 3 GL : 15:39 AV : 46:57 TMML
Marc Andre Bourdon : 28 GL : 16:00 AV : 448:00 TMML
Matt Read : 1 GL : 19:37 AV : 19:37 TMML
Michael Raffl : 7 GL : 12:30 AV : 87:30 TMML
Scott Hartnell : 4 GL : 16:55 AV : 67:40 TMML
Steve Downie : 4 GL : 15:00 AV : 60:00 TMML
Vinny Lecavalier : 6 GL : 16:30 AV : 99:00 TMML


If my math is correct, thats 2332:50 TMML so far this season with a TMGL of 150.

 

[Jyrki]

Neat idea. Don't know about not making any adjustments to account for D-men eating more ice-time, though. I guarantee you the Wings would miss Henrik Zetterberg more than Kyle Quincey; Patrick Kane more than Johnny Oduya; Cory Perry more than Ben Lovejoy; etc.

 

[Krishna]

Neat idea. Don't know about not making any adjustments to account for D-men eating more ice-time, though. I guarantee you the Wings would miss Henrik Zetterberg more than Kyle Quincey; Patrick Kane more than Johnny Oduya; Cory Perry more than Ben Lovejoy; etc.

I agree. When I PM'd the poster, I mentioned the same general idea. I'm not sure if I could think of a way to counter that, though I'm sure one of you guys could come up with a coefficient to make it reflect more of what a player's value is to his team when he is in or out?

Maybe if it was something like 1.00 for first line forwards, .85 for 2nd line players, .70 for third liners, and .55 for 4th liners.

And for defensemen : 1.00 for first pairing D men, .75 for 2nd pairing D men, and .5 for third pairing d men?

 

[MarkGio]

I love this idea. Its harder to spread minutes IMO than scoring opportunity. Not that there aren't special players, but I think scoring chances are a product of repetitive exposure as well as player skill.

This also accounts for a player who misses the last few periods, which isn't a man game lost.

 

[Krishna]

I love this idea. Its harder to spread minutes IMO than scoring opportunity. Not that there aren't special players, but I think scoring chances are a product of repetitive exposure as well as player skill.

This also accounts for a player who misses the last few periods, which isn't a man game lost.

At the moment it doesnt. Maybe during the offseason I'll go down the list for the teams and average in shots/60, goals/60, assists/60 to see how much in offense is lost.

 

[ncurrier]

Quick edit : This site should make it more accurate
http://www.mangameslost.com/nhl-man-games-lost-december-5-2013/

That's my site and yes, just started compiling that stat (or at least my variant) for what I call TMITT. Would love any feedback or ideas for improvements as it's always nice to produce exactly what people want to see.

 

[Krishna]

That's my site and yes, just started compiling that stat (or at least my variant) for what I call TMITT. Would love any feedback or ideas for improvements as it's always nice to produce exactly what people want to see.

First, thanks for the site. It would be great with a few tinkers.

Maybe add it so you can go to a team's page of MGL instead of having to do the box down below the rankings?

Second, I mentioned it above using a player's shots/60, assists/60, goals/60 and so on. For Forwards and offensive D men, it might make it a bit skewered towards higher producing skaters. To address strictly defensive d men, maybe add in hits/60 takeaways/60, shots blocked/60?

 

[Krishna]

For example, looking at the top 10 players on your TMITT ranking, #1 and #2 are Pitkanen and Pronger, which is fair to say they'd have a huge impact. Then to round out the rest of the top 10, there's MA Bourdon, Davis Drewiskie, and Mike Kostka. I don't think they would likely have a huge impact basing off their previous seasons. There needs to be something that separates top players from borderline players, dont you think?

 

[ncurrier]

For example, looking at the top 10 players on your TMITT ranking, #1 and #2 are Pitkanen and Pronger, which is fair to say they'd have a huge impact. Then to round out the rest of the top 10, there's MA Bourdon, Davis Drewiskie, and Mike Kostka. I don't think they would likely have a huge impact basing off their previous seasons. There needs to be something that separates top players from borderline players, dont you think?

There's some tweaking to be done for sure. In my next updated Sunday I was planning to roll out TMITTraw (as it is now) plus two additional metrics based on TOI. TMITTteam and TMITTleague in which the rank of the player's TOI team-wise or league-wise gets taken into account.

As for objectiveness of the quality of a player, obviously it's tough. Some players are paid to score/shoot, some to pass, some to hit, some to block shots, some to play in net. I figure TOI is the one figure that demonstrates most closely the value of all players based on what they bring to the game.

Maybe TMITTshots, TMITTgoals, TMITTassists, etc. are some categories to begin rolling out in my update next Thursday.

 

[ncurrier]

For example, looking at the top 10 players on your TMITT ranking, #1 and #2 are Pitkanen and Pronger, which is fair to say they'd have a huge impact. Then to round out the rest of the top 10, there's MA Bourdon, Davis Drewiskie, and Mike Kostka. I don't think they would likely have a huge impact basing off their previous seasons. There needs to be something that separates top players from borderline players, dont you think?

I've now launched some variations of the TMITT metric in my latest update yesterday using goals, assists, and shots to help categorize what different players bring to different teams.

As for evaluating players currently on LTIR that have yet to play this season, it's tough. Not only do I have to stretch and use their ATOI from last year, my calculation for current year players takes into account games played which I obviously don't have for those LTIR players. I can't use zero because my metric becomes null. So right now for them I'm using their teams games played divided by 2. Any thoughts?

 

[hatterson]

For example, looking at the top 10 players on your TMITT ranking, #1 and #2 are Pitkanen and Pronger, which is fair to say they'd have a huge impact. Then to round out the rest of the top 10, there's MA Bourdon, Davis Drewiskie, and Mike Kostka. I don't think they would likely have a huge impact basing off their previous seasons. There needs to be something that separates top players from borderline players, dont you think?

At the same time Pronger isn't a great example since the organization has known for a long time that he wouldn't be playing and the team is built assuming he won't be playing.