MacKinnon's Career Trajectory... Any Comparables?

[DitchMarner]

I know there's already a thread about MacKinnon, but this one is specifically about his unique career trajectory and whether anyone has a similar one.

Here's a guy who was a fairly big prospect but didn't have the hype of a Bedard and took some time to enter his prime and has now hit an entirely different level. Sure, there are some guys who peaked later, but how many players who entered the League the year they were drafted peaked in their D+11 seasons and then continued playing at roughly the same level the next year?

When McDavid had his 153 point season, how many thought it would be someone who was drafted two years earlier that would possibly challenge him for his best in the world title as opposed to a younger player?

The strange thing is that MacKinnon is considered more of a "toolsy" player than a cerebral one like Kucherov. If anything, he's the type you expect to peak early or in his mid 20s (like a Lindros) instead of getting better with age.

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[PainForShane]

I know there's already a thread about MacKinnon, but this one is specifically about his unique career trajectory and whether anyone has a similar one.

Here's a guy who was a fairly big prospect but didn't have the hype of a Bedard and took some time to enter his prime and has now hit an entirely different level. Sure, there are some guys who peaked later, but how many players who entered the League the year they were drafted peaked in their D+11 seasons and then continued playing at roughly the same level the next year?

When McDavid had his 153 point season, how many thought it would be someone who was drafted two years earlier that would possibly challenge him for his best in the world title as opposed to a younger player?

The strange thing is that MacKinnon is considered more of a "toolsy" player than a cerebral one like Kucherov. If anything, he's the type you expect to peak early or in his mid 20s (like a Lindros) instead of getting better with age.

Gordie also took a while to get going. Not as long as MacK, but I feel like MacK was different because he went all-in / became a true professional after he'd already been in the league a few years wrt diet, training etc.

MacK's preparation now is nothing like what it was when he first started in the league. Imo it's not really about his talent level, it's more than he became truly dedicated only after he'd been in the league a few years

 

[Primary Assist]

How about Yzerman? Highly touted prospect (though Stevie Y was selected fourth overall, not first) who did have some success early on, but rounded out his game and reached legendary status a bit later on in his career as he became a consummate professional.

His best season was his D+6 season where he was awarded the Lester Pearson award; no small feat when Gretz and Mario were tearing up the league.

Like Mack, I don't think there was really a definite period where Yzerman was viewed as the consensus best player in the game - but he was certainly able to play in the same tier as, and sometimes even eclipse, the game's best players.

 

[BKarchitect]

I mean he was the Calder winner as the youngest player in the NHL and then proceeded with to be even better in the NHL playoffs as an 18 year-old - so, I think the narrative that he took a while to get going isn’t exactly true. He was also a 97 point player in his age 22 season (when scoring wasn’t quite as high).

Certainly there was a blip there in his age 19-21 seasons (also coinciding with the only 3 times the Avs have missed the playoffs in his career) - so it’s really more a really hyped prospect who was immediately everything and more at 18 but then flatlined for a few seasons before getting back on his initial trajectory.

 

[JackSlater]

It's a weird career trajectory. Sort of similar to Guy Lafleur. Lafleur was more hyped, but he took off in his fourth season (MacKinnon in his fifth) though due to entering the NHL at different ages Lafleur was a year older. Very different team situations obviously. Lafleur has his very clear six year prime as the best or near best player in the NHL, while MacKinnon started to hit a new level in his sixth prime season. Part of the issue with Lafleur is that his health started deteriorating after six seasons on top, while MacKinnon is fairly healthy and fanatical about his conditioning.

How about Yzerman? Highly touted prospect (though Stevie Y was selected fourth overall, not first) who did have some success early on, but rounded out his game and reached legendary status a bit later on in his career as he became a consummate professional.

His best season was his D+6 season where he was awarded the Lester Pearson award; no small feat when Gretz and Mario were tearing up the league.

Like Mack, I don't think there was really a definite period where Yzerman was viewed as the consensus best player in the game - but he was certainly able to play in the same tier as, and sometimes even eclipse, the game's best players.

I think that the players are comparable but Yzerman was a star pretty much from the start. They definitely both hit a new level in their fifth season and at the same age, but Yzerman for instance made team Canada at the 1984 Canada Cup as a teenager and was generally a top 20ish scorer from the beginning. There are parallels but Yzerman's trajectory makes more sense because his fifth year leap is less of a jump.

 

[BKarchitect]

It's a weird career trajectory. Sort of similar to Guy Lafleur. Lafleur was more hyped, but he took off in his fourth season (MacKinnon in his fifth) though due to entering the NHL at different ages Lafleur was a year older. Very different team situations obviously. Lafleur has his very clear six year prime as the best or near best player in the NHL, while MacKinnon started to hit a new level in his sixth prime season. Part of the issue with Lafleur is that his health started deteriorating after six seasons on top, while MacKinnon is fairly healthy and fanatical about his conditioning.


I think that the players are comparable but Yzerman was a star pretty much from the start. They definitely both hit a new level in their fifth season and at the same age, but Yzerman for instance made team Canada at the 1984 Canada Cup as a teenager and was generally a top 20ish scorer from the beginning. There are parallels but Yzerman's trajectory makes more sense because his fifth year leap is less of a jump.

But MacKinnon was a star from the start. He was dominate in the playoffs at age 18 and at that point if you had asked anybody if he could become what he has - I think it would have definitely been yes.

The blip between 19-22 is certainly odd, no doubt about that. But the narrative that MacKinnon wasn’t awesome right away is patently false. He was awesome and then dipped….which is probably even more unusual.

 

[PainForShane]

I mean he was the Calder winner as the youngest player in the NHL and then proceeded with to be even better in the NHL playoffs as an 18 year-old - so, I think the narrative that he took a while to get going isn’t exactly true. He was also a 97 point player in his age 22 season (when scoring wasn’t quite as high).

Certainly there was a blip there in his age 19-21 seasons (also coinciding with the only 3 times the Avs have missed the playoffs in his career) - so it’s really more a really hyped prospect who was immediately everything and more at 18 but then flatlined for a few seasons before getting back on his initial trajectory.

Respectfully disagree -- after he'd won the Calder (weak year), for the next three seasons he didn't hit 60 points. I wouldn't even call it a flatline, he got worse. Then in his fifth year he hit 97 points in 74 games and hasn't looked back since.

This type of progression happens but not that often in my opinion (hence why I think this thread is worth having).

If you look at other players with weird progressions, the only forwards I can think of right now are Dylan Strome, Clayton Keller, maybe Tage Thompson depending where you think Tage's true ability might be. There might be others, if so please bring them up. Everyone has career years at times but MacKinnon's entire trend line changed in his fifth year in the league

 

[BKarchitect]

Respectfully disagree -- after he'd won the Calder (weak year), for the next three seasons he didn't hit 60 points. I wouldn't even call it a flatline, he got worse. Then in his fifth year he hit 97 points in 74 games and hasn't looked back since.

This type of progression happens but not that often in my opinion (hence why I think this thread is worth having).

If you look at other players with weird progressions, the only forwards I can think of right now are Dylan Strome, Clayton Keller, maybe Tage Thompson depending where you think Tage's true ability might be. There might be others, if so please bring them up. Everyone has career years at times but MacKinnon's entire trend line changed in his fifth year in the league

I’m not saying it’s not unusual or this thread isn’t worth examining. I just think the narrative has become MacKinnon didn’t show superstar signs until year 5. That’s not true.

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

In his D+4 year a MacK for RNH trade would have been turned down by the Oilers.

Then MacGinnon took off and it looked lopsided.

But RNH himself had a late surge into a 100 point player and one of the better defensive Cs in the league.

Two first overalls separated by space and time but who's souls will always be intertwined.

 

[DearDiary]

Mackinnon said that in 2017 he went to see a dietician and saw a physiologist. That and the Duchene trade moved the roster around so that MacKinnon was lined up with Landescog and Rantanen.

 

[forsbergavs32]

I think Mack showed signs of being a superstar but struggled in the first few years due to a couple of factors.

1. It was a really bad team at the time. Outside of Duchene, Landeskog, Barrie, O'Reilly, and a rookie Rantanen, the Avs had no real talent, which hindered Mack's growth

2. He tended to defer to Duchene because at the time, it was considered his and Landeskog's team (the Avs even had a Duchene cap for salary). Mack really took off almost immediately after Duchene got traded, though that was also aided by the team starting to become better and a new fresh voice in Bednar.

3. The aforementioned diet/lifestyle changes.

 

[PainForShane]

I’m not saying it’s not unusual or this thread isn’t worth examining. I just think the narrative has become MacKinnon didn’t show superstar signs until year 5. That’s not true.

Well, let's be clear what we're talking about here.

After his 18 year old season, were there signs of greatness? Yes, of course. And to your point if at the time you asked ppl around the league, 'will this guy become the next Sakic,' enough people would probably say yes, or at the very least, 'it's possible.' He had a good rookie year, in my view nothing truly exceptional but you can argue that I suppose.

I think if you asked this same question after MacK's D+4 season, I don't think a single person would have said it was likely he'd become as good as a Sakic / Forsberg etc. Certainly no one would think he'd eventually become a perennial Hart finalist.

Anyway, my own thoughts re: MacK is he's a guy who had a good rookie year and also took a while to get going. Like you said, to me, the weird / impressive thing is his dip in his 2nd to 4th years (ie he was worse than his Calder year) followed by quite a dramatic turnaround after that

 

[JackSlater]

But MacKinnon was a star from the start. He was dominate in the playoffs at age 18 and at that point if you had asked anybody if he could become what he has - I think it would have definitely been yes.

The blip between 19-22 is certainly odd, no doubt about that. But the narrative that MacKinnon wasn’t awesome right away is patently false. He was awesome and then dipped….which is probably even more unusual.

He had a very good rookie year but I don't agree that he was a star. I agree that his dip in performance in the subsequent years, followed by him suddenly becoming a top ten forward/player, is the odd part.

I will add to this thread that to me MacKinnon began to break out at the 2017 iihf world championship. He looked totally different than he had been and was a dominant player. Maybe a Colorado fan can inform me if MacKinnon suddenly looked better near the end of the 2017 season. Then the next season he was a strong Hart contender.

 

[daver]

I will add to this thread that to me MacKinnon began to break out at the 2017 iihf world championship. He looked totally different than he had been and was a dominant player. Maybe a Colorado fan can inform me if MacKinnon suddenly looked better near the end of the 2017 season. Then the next season he was a strong Hart contender.

He started the 17/18 season at a PPG through 14 games when Duchene played his last game with the Avs. He was at a 1.38 PPG the rest of the year.

He had a very good rookie year but I don't agree that he was a star. I agree that his dip in performance in the subsequent years, followed by him suddenly becoming a top ten forward/player, is the odd part.

Those three years are the lost years. It is not unusual for a player to take a few years to get going but after the hype and his 1st season, and then subsequent rise to a Sakic/Yzerman level, those three years are certainly unusual.

 

[lionsDen]

It took Mack’s brain a few seasons before his brain kicked in. Remember the meme of button hooks. I think his playmaking has exceeded what most avs fans thought it turn out to be JMO

 

[Tralfamadore]

The only thing you can predict about a players trajectory is that it's unpredictable.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Respectfully disagree -- after he'd won the Calder (weak year), for the next three seasons he didn't hit 60 points. I wouldn't even call it a flatline, he got worse. Then in his fifth year he hit 97 points in 74 games and hasn't looked back since.

This type of progression happens but not that often in my opinion (hence why I think this thread is worth having).

If you look at other players with weird progressions, the only forwards I can think of right now are Dylan Strome, Clayton Keller, maybe Tage Thompson depending where you think Tage's true ability might be. There might be others, if so please bring them up. Everyone has career years at times but MacKinnon's entire trend line changed in his fifth year in the league

To be fair, the whole team got worse over his 2-4th years. The team put up 112 points his rookie season and had the 4th most goals in the NHL. 5 players, including MacKinnon scored at least 60 points. The next year, they lost Stastny to UFA, signed a 37 year old Iginla to replace him and were a 90 point team, tied for 22nd in goals. No one on the roster scored 60 points that year. The next year, ROR had been traded for futures, the ghost of Alex Tanguay was brought in, and they were an 82 point team, 20th in goal scoring. Again, not a single 60 point scorer on the roster.

Then Roy infamously rage quit in August. EJ and Varly both got hurt. The team ended the season with only 48 points and was dead last in both goals for and against, with a goal differential of -111. Only MacKinnon broke 50 points, Duchene was the only other guy to put up at least 40 (he had 41 points). Rookie Rantanen was the only 20 goal scorer.

It wasn't until Mack's 5th year that the team didn't get significantly worse in the off-season, adding some young forwards they had acquired/drafted instead of washed up UFAs and then trading Duchene early in the season for Girard + futures. With young linemates who could actually keep up with him, Mack's production improved (97 in 75), and they made the playoffs for the first time since his rookie season.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

It took Mack’s brain a few seasons before his brain kicked in. Remember the meme of button hooks. I think his playmaking has exceeded what most avs fans thought it turn out to be JMO

I'm pretty sure most of the button hooks were a result of his geriatric linemates still being at the red line instead of in position for a pass.

 

[Qurpiz]

Whheeel I know it's no trajectory McDavids' on

Am I doing it right?

 

[DitchMarner]

But MacKinnon was a star from the start. He was dominate in the playoffs at age 18 and at that point if you had asked anybody if he could become what he has - I think it would have definitely been yes.

The blip between 19-22 is certainly odd, no doubt about that. But the narrative that MacKinnon wasn’t awesome right away is patently false. He was awesome and then dipped….which is probably even more unusual.

The dip in his second to fourth years is certainly odd but so is the fact that he's somehow gotten better after ten years.

He shook off those disappointing seasons and settled into being a regular Hart contender and a superstar player, but then he reached a level few players have hit. He's basically been playing at a generational level since last season. Kane had a dominant season in 2016 years after being drafted and then was top three in scoring the next year, but what's happening with MacKinnon feels different because he's older and doing even better than Kane did.

 

[Balthazar]

I don't like "progression" because that'd be implying that he "progressed" in the offseason between year 4 and year 5.

He got unleashed when Matt Duchene got traded and it happened immediately. The first game after the trade he was a new player and he's been that player since.

It was the result of a weird internal situation which is why you don't see that "trajectory" or "progression" often, if ever.

 

[Fatass]

Now best player in the league.

 

[Plastic Joseph]

Guy Lafleur

 

[karltonian]

Is makar not relevant to mackinnon's super-peak?

 

[Matsun]

Lots of great players breakout big around their age 22 season. Jagr, Lafleur, Howe, Dionne etc etc. So not that rare. What is more rare is that Mackinnon was a hyped 1st overall pick, had a great rookie season, a fantastic rookie playoff run-- and THEN he started taking the slow path before breaking out. Thats the weird part.

Think Lafleur is the closest, his rookie season was the 4th highest scoring of all time at the time but then his scoring dropped before he entered god mode at age 23.