LW Beckett Sennecke - Oshawa Generals, OHL (2024 Draft)

[Leto]

It's possible if a team offers enough.

I think this year the cost to move up would be higher. There seems to be a steep drop off in the mid first.

I agree.

So are the Habs willing to offer four picks?

It depends on what you mean by ''four picks''. If MTL were to offer a package similar to what the Coyotes paid, it would be something like the following :

• WPG 1st 2024 (~24-27 OV range)
• MTL 2nd 2025
• PIT 2nd 2025

I didn't include COL's 2nd 2024 (~57 OV range), as the expected value of that pick is closer to an early 3rd round pick than an early 2nd pick compared to MTL+PIT's 2025 2nd round picks. So a willing to trade down would have to take 2025 2nd rounders (assuming PIT/MTL are still bad next year), or a less valuable COL 2024 2nd rounder + one 2025 2nd rounder.

Truth be told, I don't see any obvious trading partner in the 10-15 range.

 

[Buttonwood]

Reading between the lines on McKenzie's rankings teams are much higher on him than the public mock drafters - I'm thinking 10 to 14 range is more likely than 15 to 20 at this point.

 

[BJCOLLINS]

I agree.



It depends on what you mean by ''four picks''. If MTL were to offer a package similar to what the Coyotes paid, it would be something like the following :

• WPG 1st 2024 (~24-27 OV range)
• MTL 2nd 2025
• PIT 2nd 2025

I didn't include COL's 2nd 2024 (~57 OV range), as the expected value of that pick is closer to an early 3rd round pick than an early 2nd pick compared to MTL+PIT's 2025 2nd round picks. So a willing to trade down would have to take 2025 2nd rounders (assuming PIT/MTL are still bad next year), or a less valuable COL 2024 2nd rounder + one 2025 2nd rounder.

Truth be told, I don't see any obvious trading partner in the 10-15 range.

This whole discussion is just too subjective.

Who the Habs draft at #5 will have an enormous impact on their thinking as well as who they like that has fallen to 10-14……if it’s a player Bobby Mac had # 2-7 they should be all in however 25 other teams will have trade packages in as well.

 

[Sparty]

I don't really have anything useful to add here but whenever I see this guy's name I'm probably always going to think his name is Beckett Sneckett.

 

[TheBeard]

They're looking for an additional impact player up front.

Chicago is still looking for an impact player after picking first overall in 2023 and 8th overall in 2022.

I hope you mean aside from Bedard, or are you just baiting?

 

[WeThreeKings]

I hope you mean aside from Bedard, or are you just baiting?

Yes, aside from Bedard.. the same way that the Habs have Slafkovsky from their 1st OA (not comparing the two, obviously Bedard is leagues ahead).. just that it's not uncommon for teams after 2 drafts in a rebuild to still be looking for impact talent.

 

[TheBeard]

Yes, aside from Bedard.. the same way that the Habs have Slafkovsky from their 1st OA (not comparing the two, obviously Bedard is leagues ahead).. just that it's not uncommon for teams after 2 drafts in a rebuild to still be looking for impact talent.

No doubt. Sharks have accumulated a fair amount of prospect talent over the last couple years including Celebrini and it’s safe to say no one on the sharks board feels confident enough that we have enough.

 

[Ford Prefect]

The "douche" that you were asking about earlier made the Habs pick.

Oh wow. I happen to like that douche. I don't know if we can be friends anymore. Ah screw it, I've got room for more than one douche in my life. Bring it in.

 

[Ford Prefect]

He's top 5 on one and top 10 on 2 others. Bob McKenzies list indicates that.

So I guess one of his contacts is a Montreal scout.

 

[SlafySZN]

Montreal is still looking for an impact player after taking the first overall in 2022 and the pick 5 in 2023

Slafkovsky is/will be an impact player.


Back to Beckett Sennecke, though. Because yes, it’s his thread.

 

[montreal]

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Thank you as always for these full shift videos, very much appreciated!!

I enjoyed the coverage at 11:00-12:00 especially, stick lift/hooking penalty followed by a slowmo beauty saucer. Then straight into the very rare check to an opponent who is mid slap shot wind up!

 

[Forge]

Reading between the lines on McKenzie's rankings teams are much higher on him than the public mock drafters - I'm thinking 10 to 14 range is more likely than 15 to 20 at this point.

Pronman's most recent mock had him jumping up and getting drafted by the Devils at 10

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

In 2010, Jeff Skinner was ranked 34th for NA skaters in central scouting final rankings.

Then he scored 20 goals in 20 playoff games.

On draft day he was selected 7th overall and has scored a ton of goals in the NHL.

Maybe a similar story is unfolding with Sennecke.

 

[Intangir]

I see shades of Charlie Coyle from Sennecke.

He's big, strong on the puck, generally moves well, has some nice mitts, takes good decisions on the ice, is a pretty good shooter, great when it comes to puck possession, and just positions himself/reads plays well.

Then you look at his level of play from October to now, the quite frankly amazing learning curve since about January on combined with his physical gifts and skating, and it appears quite clearly that Sennecke has the potential to be a very good player in the NHL.

And one that is quite "safe" to boot given how much detail there is to his game, and how translatable his skillset/plays on the ice are.

The one real caveat that I have with Sennecke is a question about just how high-end his vision and decision-making are offensively. And also whether or not he has it in him to be a strong play-driving winger or if he ultimately ends up being more of a facilitator and complementary piece for higher-skilled players at the NHL level.

Oh, and I also think Sennecke could stand to get more agile on his skates and improve his edges too, as I found that he sometimes looked a bit lumbering while trying to weave his way through checking in the games that I did see.

So yeah, personally I don't quite see Sennecke in the top 10 but I still really like the player so if a team jumped the gun a bit for him then I would understand.

But I rate Tij Iginla slightly higher because from the viewings I've had his hockey sense seemed better to me, though he admittedly does not have the strength/reach advantage that Sennecke does, nor are his hands as good.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Pronman's most recent mock had him jumping up and getting drafted by the Devils at 10

And admits he may go even higher.

Noise around the Canadiens is that they really like this player, so if Lindstrom and Demidov are gone, I would not be surprised they go Sennecke over Iginla at this point.

 

[montreal]

2:11 Nice Scoring Chance
7:44 Almost Snipes One
8:58 Slick Move Great Chance
14:30 Goal

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

He’s jumped from late teens to early teens for me. I think he’s a hard evaluation.

 

[Garbageyuk]

And admits he may go even higher.

Noise around the Canadiens is that they really like this player, so if Lindstrom and Demidov are gone, I would not be surprised they go Sennecke over Iginla at this point.

Noise from who? If Lindstrom and Demidov are gone, they’ll go with one of the highly rated D. They may go with one even if the two forwards aren’t gone.

 

[Dead Coyote]

In the grand scheme of things, 22 points in 16 games isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire for a draft eligible in the OHL, is it? From the way people are talking about him “dominating”, I kind of expected that he was at like 2+ PPG in the playoffs.

It's actually pretty good. Not amazing, but 2+ ppg would put him somewhere in the top 5-10 range all time for draft eligibles. There are exactly 19 draft eligibles who put up that kind of PPG in their draft year in the OHL, not even excluding players who only played a few games. Just everyone. And 3 of them did while 16, two of which did it more than once (Gretzky and Lindros)

 

[Dead Coyote]

In 2010, Jeff Skinner was ranked 34th for NA skaters in central scouting final rankings.

Then he scored 20 goals in 20 playoff games.

On draft day he was selected 7th overall and has scored a ton of goals in the NHL.

Maybe a similar story is unfolding with Sennecke.

Little bit of a different situation here since Skinner broke the record for most PP goals that year and is 12th all time in goals,

2nd among draft eligibles all time in goals (only behind McDavid who had 1 more), 7th among draft eligibles all time in points and 21st in PPG (at least 10GP).

Bennett is 38th on the draft eligibles list in PPG, 41st in points and 26th in Goals.

What he's done has been very impressive still, but I don't think warrants a comparison to Skinner's rise.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Noise from who? If Lindstrom and Demidov are gone, they’ll go with one of the highly rated D. They may go with one even if the two forwards aren’t gone.

No they won't lol, how many times does Hughes have to tell you guys he's not taking a LD? There's no chance Levshunov drops to 5.

And the noise is from Basu, Godin, Grant, Pronman, etc.

Do we really have to do the Michkov thing again where the Habs fan base ignores the messaging the entire time and then gets blind sided from a train that was barreling at them face first for two months?

 

[Juxtaposer]

It's actually pretty good. Not amazing, but 2+ ppg would put him somewhere in the top 5-10 range all time for draft eligibles. There are exactly 19 draft eligibles who put up that kind of PPG in their draft year in the OHL, not even excluding players who only played a few games. Just everyone. And 3 of them did while 16, two of which did it more than once (Gretzky and Lindros)

Now do it for anyone who ever had a single stretch of 22 points in 16 games at any point in their draft season. I have a feeling that the list will get a lot, lot longer.

I just mean that I’ve seen people “worried” about Cayden Lindstrom only being able to maintain his production for 32 games this year… but he maintained a PPG higher than Sennecke’s playoff production for twice as long. Plus, Sennecke’s been injured during the London series which definitely would have decreased his PPG had he played, similar to how Tij Iginla’s playoff PPG was insane until he ran into Prince George, who are the wagon of the WHL the way London is for the OHL.

All I’m saying is that maybe we should pump the breaks just a smidge on this guy. Top-15 pick, absolutely. But I’m starting to see top-5 noise around here which seems crazy to me. When all’s said and done, I just don’t see any way Sennecke breaks into the top-10.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Now do it for anyone who ever had a single stretch of 22 points in 16 games at any point in their draft season. I have a feeling that the list will get a lot, lot longer.

I just mean that I’ve seen people “worried” about Cayden Lindstrom only being able to maintain his production for 32 games this year… but he maintained a PPG higher than Sennecke’s playoff production for twice as long. Plus, Sennecke’s been injured during the London series which definitely would have decreased his PPG had he played, similar to how Tij Iginla’s playoff PPG was insane until he ran into Prince George, who are the wagon of the WHL the way London is for the OHL.

All I’m saying is that maybe we should pump the breaks just a smidge on this guy. Top-15 pick, absolutely. But I’m starting to see top-5 noise around here which seems crazy to me. When all’s said and done, I just don’t see any way Sennecke breaks into the top-10.

The noise is from scouts themselves.

He got a top 5 vote and 2 other top 10 votes on Bob's last rankings. There's a lot of time in scouting circles for a player like this.

He was seen as a mid first round pick all year prior to his production taking off and it's a misnomer to say its just his playoff PPG. He's been on an upward trajectory since January of this year.

Plus there's an easy link here between a massive growth spurt and coordination, if you already liked his upside before he got a handle on his production and coordination, you are probably really liking it now that it's all starting to come together.

You've got a unique situation on your hands if scouts believe that the upward trajectory is going to continue, then you are going to see him go high.

Really the push back on the guy is just that people get into a status quo all year of who is and isn't a top 10 eligible player and when the noise takes longer to reach the people, than it did in actual NHL scouting circles, people tend to think this is coming out of nowhere where it's really been happening long before public hears about it.

Even Pronman while mocked Sennecke at like 10-11 in his latest mock, acknowledges in his own excerpt that NHL scouts are telling him he is likely to go higher than where he has him slotted. Say what you want about Pronman's individual list and ranking, the man has shown he's plugged in with how accurate he's been lately with his final mocks.

 

[Juxtaposer]

The noise is from scouts themselves.

He got a top 5 vote and 2 other top 10 votes on Bob's last rankings. There's a lot of time in scouting circles for a player like this.

He was seen as a mid first round pick all year prior to his production taking off and it's a misnomer to say its just his playoff PPG. He's been on an upward trajectory since January of this year.

Plus there's an easy link here between a massive growth spurt and coordination, if you already liked his upside before he got a handle on his production and coordination, you are probably really liking it now that it's all starting to come together.

You've got a unique situation on your hands if scouts believe that the upward trajectory is going to continue, then you are going to see him go high.

Really the push back on the guy is just that people get into a status quo all year of who is and isn't a top 10 eligible player and when the noise takes longer to reach the people, than it did in actual NHL scouting circles, people tend to think this is coming out of nowhere where it's really been happening long before public hears about it.

Even Pronman while mocked Sennecke at like 10-11 in his latest mock, acknowledges in his own excerpt that NHL scouts are telling him he is likely to go higher than where he has him slotted. Say what you want about Pronman's individual list and ranking, the man has shown he's plugged in with how accurate he's been lately with his final mocks.

Right, that’s obviously where the scouting comes in. I’m just saying purely on the production side, it’s really not all that impressive.

I also just have a hard time seeing him go in the top-10 because of who’s already there. Celebrini, Demidov, Lindstrom, Levshunov, Dickinson, Silayev, and Buium are top-10 locks as far as I’m concerned. Then Sennecke would have to beat out two of Catton, Iginla, Parekh, and Yakemchuk. It’s not impossible, but with all the noise about the six defensemen all going top-10 and the love for Iginla, I’m not sure who else you move out of the top-10 to put Sennecke in it. Catton could definitely fall out, but it’ll be curious who else, if anyone else, does.