Luongo was offer sheeted by Detroit in 2006

[Michael Farkas]

Then I'd introduce "quote bias" probably...

I thought for sure someone would have swooped in with actual cap stuff from this season...is it actually (practically) gone in a useful form?

 

[Gorskyontario]

Osgood was very good in the 2009 playoffs, and it's the only notable thing he ever really did for Detroit. Luongo was a much better goaltender. It's not close.

This is more canucks fanfiction. Somehow they had all these amazing elite players, and they have won nothing.


Luongo was a good goalie, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.

 

[MadLuke]

I feel Luongo had an excellent argument to be the best in the world if you have to pick someone from say 2004-2012 window and can sound underrated by moment.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

But, Osgood was good and quite experimented for the big moment and got the job done in the playoff for the RedWings for sure:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

.943 save percentage at even strenght in the playoff, .924 overall,....

Hasek was not bad in 2007, so it is not easy for the Wings to get an upgrade the only time it matter, the playoff and it is a bit costly, so I am not sure if the upgrade vs what they loose amount to much in 2007-2008-2009.

Maybe they are able to stay a contender longer after that with such a dominant goaltender too, that said goaltending was far to be an big issue for them in those playoffs.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

That Detroit era wins 0 cups instead of 1.

Luongo just not a big game guy, prone to mental breakdowns.

I know he is looked on more favorably now because he is silly on Twitter but he had a bad attitude as a player and I think the constant finger pointing he did as a player when he let in a bad goal would not go over well in Detroit

 

[JackSlater]

This is more canucks fanfiction. Somehow they had all these amazing elite players, and they have won nothing.


Luongo was a good goalie, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.

Who cares about the Canucks? I'm a Detroit fan. Luongo spent years as a top five goalie in the NHL, including some of the timeframe included here. Osgood spent years as a generally average goaltender, sometimes worse.

That Detroit era wins 0 cups instead of 1.

Luongo just not a big game guy, prone to mental breakdowns.

I know he is looked on more favorably now because he is silly on Twitter but he had a bad attitude as a player and I think the constant finger pointing he did as a player when he let in a bad goal would not go over well in Detroit

It would be hard for Luongo, or almost any goaltender, to blow the 2008 Stanley Cup. Luongo tended to be an excellent goaltender for Canada, big games and otherwise. Obviously with Canada most of his games he played on the more talented team, but that would have been the case with Detroit too.

 

[Hobnobs]

It would be hard for Luongo, or almost any goaltender, to blow the 2008 Stanley Cup. Luongo tended to be an excellent goaltender for Canada, big games and otherwise. Obviously with Canada most of his games he played on the more talented team, but that would have been the case with Detroit too.

Even in the net for Canada, Luongo was shaky in important games most notable vs Slovakia and to a lesser extent Russia in 2010. Versus Russiathe lead was obviously so huge it didn't really matter.

Still don't get this idea that Luongo was this clutch goalie Red Wings would need to sacrifice depth for to win. He has never proven himself to be especially clutch. Is he a better goalie than Osgood? Obviously. Enough to off-set the differences in cap hits. Doubtful.

Pre-cap I would definitely replace Osgood with Luongo. I often argued replacing Osgood with a much better goalie which happened in '02. But in the cap era Osgoods much lower cap hit while still being a capable goalie allowed the Wings to build the type deep team they had.

 

[rmartin65]

Yikes, there are actually people out there that think the Red Wings would have won less with Luongo? That’s quite a take.

And no, I’m not a Vancouver fan.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Yikes, there are actually people out there that think the Red Wings would have won less with Luongo? That’s quite a take.

And no, I’m not a Vancouver fan.

Seems to be primarily Red Wings fans who have bought in to "their guy".

 

[Hobnobs]

Seems to be primarily Red Wings fans who have bought in to "their guy".

Nope, he's misrepresenting the argument. No one (except one I guess) is saying red wings would win less because Luongo is worse than Osgood.

All thats been pointed out is that Luongo will take up more of the cap ie team overall would miss key players hence it would not be as strong of a team and that Luongo hasn't been clutch in deciding games.

So far no one has actually countered these arguments but instead just repeated Luongo is a better goalie than Osgood which is true but still don't answer the questions of how Detroit still builds a cup contending team with Luongo taking 3-4 times more of the goalie salary budget than that of the of the cup winning team.

 

[rmartin65]

Nope, he's misrepresenting the argument. No one (except one I guess) is saying red wings would win less because Luongo is worse than Osgood.

Sounds like I wouldn't be misrepresenting the argument, then, since by your own admission in this very post, there is someone who thinks Luongo is worse than Osgood.

However, nowhere in my post did I claim that there were fans claiming Osgood was a better goalie than Luongo. You are effectually misrepresenting me here.

All thats been pointed out is that Luongo will take up more of the cap ie team overall would miss key players hence it would not be as strong of a team and that Luongo hasn't been clutch in deciding games.

So far no one has actually countered these arguments but instead just repeated Luongo is a better goalie than Osgood which is true but still don't answer the questions of how Detroit still builds a cup contending team with Luongo taking 3-4 times more of the goalie salary budget than that of the of the cup winning team.

Since Luongo was pretty much 3-4 times the goalie that Osgood was at the time, I think the Red Wings would have been just fine.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Then I'd introduce "quote bias" probably...

I thought for sure someone would have swooped in with actual cap stuff from this season...is it actually (practically) gone in a useful form?

For being firmly all in the internet era, prior year cap data is frustratingly difficult to find. I'm sure someone could pull it together using wayback machine, but it doesn't help that the main site people use has kept changing.

 

[WarriorofTime]

After Luongo's run to the Stanley Cup Finals in Vancouver as team captain with great help from Kesler...

the brass decided to double-down on the Sedin twins, who dominated San Jose on powerplays to boost stats, but were criticized after playoff games and since then.

Lu & Kesler were shipped away and the Sedins were re-signed. Because Orca Bay was following the Dallas Cowboys blueprint: have token heroes, be competitive enough.

To clarify, you are talking about Luongo and Kesler who were traded a full three seasons after the Canucks made the Finals in 2010-11. Canucks went 1-8 in the playoffs against LA and San Jose in 2012 and 2013, then did the Torts thing and missed the playoffs entirely. It was over by then. Sedins wanted to be one team guys and hung around as old guys until they retired, making the Playoffs one more time.

 

[MadLuke]

Yikes, there are actually people out there that think the Red Wings would have won less with Luongo? That’s quite a take.

In 08 and 09, Osgood was .928, 1.80 GAA.... not much to do with Luongo or any goaltender being better than Osgood, re-roll those dice, with anyone in net (even himself) how many time it turn out better ?

Same for playing better than Hasek in 2007. Would 0 cup have a 50% or more chance to happen, with how hockey goes and how hard it is to win 4 series in a row, we should not turn too mild of take in hot one. Goaltending is not about having the best goaltender, it is about having the best goaltending and a series that can be Halak or Thomas getting hot and doing it and it can be hard for a better goaltender to significantly a team goaltending on an hot streak.

 

[rmartin65]

In 08 and 09, Osgood was .928, 1.80 GAA.... not much to do with Luongo or any goaltender being better than Osgood, re-roll those dice, with anyone in net (even himself) how many time it turn out better ?

Same for playing better than Hasek in 2007. Would 0 cup have a 50% or more chance to happen, with how hockey goes and how hard it is to win 4 series in a row, we should not turn too mild of take in hot one. Goaltending is not about having the best goaltender, it is about having the best goaltending and a series that can be Halak or Thomas getting hot and doing it and it can be hard for a better goaltender to significantly a team goaltending on an hot streak.

I feel like just pointing at stats and omitting any kind of surrounding context regarding the talent on those teams isn't productive.

I mean, we have one guy saying that Luongo's contract would have precluded the Red Wings from forming their powerhouse (my word) team. But Osgood is still getting full value for winning behind that team? I don't think that is a winning argument.

 

[MadLuke]

But Osgood is still getting full value for winning behind that team?

No one give him full value, the point is about how many less goals against Luongo give you if you replay those series (same will be to do it again with Osgood) it is hard to improve on such performance.

Think replacing Fernando Pisani on 2006 the oilers or Halak on the 2010 Habs with better players, do they win more or less ?

Someone saying the Oilers does not make the finals with Alex Tanguay instead of Pisani or Mtl with Price in net that year should not be interpreted to be some hot take about them being worst player.

You are trying to change a part that happened to go very well for them by cap space invested already, would it be because of the goaltender quality, puck luck, team defense, etc....

 

[Hobnobs]

Sounds like I wouldn't be misrepresenting the argument, then, since by your own admission in this very post, there is someone who thinks Luongo is worse than Osgood.

However, nowhere in my post did I claim that there were fans claiming Osgood was a better goalie than Luongo. You are effectually misrepresenting me here.


Since Luongo was pretty much 3-4 times the goalie that Osgood was at the time, I think the Red Wings would have been just fine.

You didn't claim it but your post implied it.

Explain how they'd be fine. Like somewhere between 04 panthers and the 07-13 canucks fine?

I feel like just pointing at stats and omitting any kind of surrounding context regarding the talent on those teams isn't productive.

I mean, we have one guy saying that Luongo's contract would have precluded the Red Wings from forming their powerhouse (my word) team. But Osgood is still getting full value for winning behind that team? I don't think that is a winning argument.

Luongo wouldn't have the same talent surrounding him. It has been said over and over again in this thread but keeps being ignored.

 

[MadLuke]

Explain how they'd be fine. Like somewhere between 04 panthers and the 07-13 canucks fine?

Like they were pretty much always fine with under 40 years old Lidstrom playing ? There quite the gap between the 04 panthers and some of those canucks teams and the 07-11 Red wings.

 

[rmartin65]

You didn't claim it but your post implied it.

Please explain how my post implied it.

Explain how they'd be fine. Like somewhere between 04 panthers and the 07-13 canucks fine?

Let's look at the level of talent between the Red Wings teams and those teams, right? I mean, go ahead and take out the Red Wings players you think would have been sacrificed to make room for Luongo- the Red Wings are still a vastly superior team, right?

Luongo wouldn't have the same talent surrounding him. It has been said over and over again in this thread but keeps being ignored.

Of course he wouldn't have the same level of talent around him- I wouldn't argue otherwise.

 

[Hobnobs]

Like they were pretty much always fine with under 40 years old Lidstrom playing ? There quite the gap between the 04 panthers and some of those canucks teams and the 07-11 Red wings.

Yes, there is quite the gap but there is also quite the gap between the players Red Wings have and who they realistically could sign. If we are talking about first round exit fine. I agree. But people here are talking about multiple cups (not rmartin) so how?

They were up against the cap in each of those seasons 07-10 (and beyond) and people think they would still have those same teams and a 7-8 million dollar goalie on it. Thats both Rafalski and Stuart gone. Or not resigning Datsyuk and later on two of Zäta, Franzen and Hossa.

We are talking about a defese with Lidström, Kronwall, Lilja, Lebda, Ericsson and grampa Chelios winning multiple cups.

For the record, Red Wings were fine with 40 year old Lidström on it because they still had those significant pieces that wouldnt be there if they signed Luongo.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Ok, I found Detroit's 2007 offseason cap. So, after their contracts expired for 7/1/07.

Hasek's cap hit is $4.05 mil ($2 mil in base, $2 mil in bonuses). Osgood's is $850k. So, combined they're about $5 mil.

I don't think Hasek would have done that in many places except for Detroit though. I think he was taking less there because the imminent chance to win. And because it's just Osgood there, there isn't much competition. Buffalo was a threat, but they had Miller (and he couldn't possibly go back there at that point, right?). Ottawa was a threat with no competition with Emery (but he can't go back there right away, right?). Pittsburgh was a threat, but they had Fleury. NJ has Brodeur, SJ has Nabokov, Anaheim had just invested in Giguere and they had Bryzgalov. There's not a lot of room anywhere for him.

So, I think they just don't extend Hasek...keep Osgood for his sub million dollar contract. I know that bonuses can carry over in some respects, but that's not an insignificant chunk there.

NHLSCAP.com - Cap Numbers, Detroit Red Wings

So, here we got 3 top-4 d-men. Lidstrom/Rafalski/Kronwall locked in. Brad Stuart ($3.75 mil) isn't signed yet.

Datsyuk/Zetterberg/Holmstrom are locked in.
Samuelsson/Hudler/Franzen are locked in, the last of which has another couple years of entry level time it looks like based on the number.

Grinders are there: Draper/Maltby/Cleary.

Young potential: Filppula and some of the other guys that tried...like Kopecky.

So, basically...the basically the whole thing is there. Without Hasek's cap hit, the Wings have about $8.5 mil in cap space right now. So, yeah, it will probably cost them Brad Stuart. It would have to be a ~$2 mil d-man instead of a $3.75 mil d-man. But then it's Luongo in net...

So, instead of Brad Stuart...we're looking more at a Darryl Sydor, Scott Hannan, Greg de Vries type of deal...that doesn't seem quite as hysterical, but maybe someone will evaluate it differently...

 

[WarriorofTime]

Understand not wanting to mess things around too much with the 2007-08 and 2008-09 Red Wings who won a Cup and were really close to another, but what about in 2005-06, 2006-07 and then 2009-10 through 2014-15? Wings were still a competitive team, but just not quite good enough. Perhaps an elite player at the goaltending position, and then whatever cap shuffling was needed to make it work, results in a Cup in a post '09 Red Wing world. The other complication is Osgood gives way to Howard, who was a borderline top 10 goaltender.. so it's not like that was a fundamental weakness the way people might have speculated 2005-06 through 2008-09. Obviously hard to say, all speculative stuff.

 

[MadLuke]

but what about in 2005-06

From my understanding it would have been summer of 2006 ? so after that season...

 

[jigglysquishy]

He doesn't give a date, but says "shortly" after he was traded to Vancouver. Which was in June 2006.

He mentioned he declined it because he just moved to Vancouver. He had just bought a house in Florida, then got traded. Then bought a house in Vancouver and got offer sheeted. So he didn't want to uproot his family twice in one summer.

He mentioned the offer sheet was for more than what he signed for in Vancouver.

 

[Hobnobs]

Ok, I found Detroit's 2007 offseason cap. So, after their contracts expired for 7/1/07.

Hasek's cap hit is $4.05 mil ($2 mil in base, $2 mil in bonuses). Osgood's is $850k. So, combined they're about $5 mil.

I don't think Hasek would have done that in many places except for Detroit though. I think he was taking less there because the imminent chance to win. And because it's just Osgood there, there isn't much competition. Buffalo was a threat, but they had Miller (and he couldn't possibly go back there at that point, right?). Ottawa was a threat with no competition with Emery (but he can't go back there right away, right?). Pittsburgh was a threat, but they had Fleury. NJ has Brodeur, SJ has Nabokov, Anaheim had just invested in Giguere and they had Bryzgalov. There's not a lot of room anywhere for him.

So, I think they just don't extend Hasek...keep Osgood for his sub million dollar contract. I know that bonuses can carry over in some respects, but that's not an insignificant chunk there.

NHLSCAP.com - Cap Numbers, Detroit Red Wings

So, here we got 3 top-4 d-men. Lidstrom/Rafalski/Kronwall locked in. Brad Stuart ($3.75 mil) isn't signed yet.

Datsyuk/Zetterberg/Holmstrom are locked in.
Samuelsson/Hudler/Franzen are locked in, the last of which has another couple years of entry level time it looks like based on the number.

Grinders are there: Draper/Maltby/Cleary.

Young potential: Filppula and some of the other guys that tried...like Kopecky.

So, basically...the basically the whole thing is there. Without Hasek's cap hit, the Wings have about $8.5 mil in cap space right now. So, yeah, it will probably cost them Brad Stuart. It would have to be a ~$2 mil d-man instead of a $3.75 mil d-man. But then it's Luongo in net...

So, instead of Brad Stuart...we're looking more at a Darryl Sydor, Scott Hannan, Greg de Vries type of deal...that doesn't seem quite as hysterical, but maybe someone will evaluate it differently...

The pay roll is 43 378 166 (20 players) without bonuses before adding Rafalski and Stuart.

The league cap is at: 50 300 000

Luongo at 7 000 000 (conservative)

How do you add Rafalski and a Sydor type defenseman?

Also Zetterberg and Franzen (2 yrs) are not locked in they are soon to be UFAs as is Lidström (1yrs). And you obviously left the team with little wiggle room even with the cap going up by around 6 million.

Even if you remove Hasek that's 39 278 166 + 7 000 000 (conservative Luongo cap) and you have 4 mill to play with for two players and now wiggle room.

Did you forget to add in Luongos cap hit?

 

[Hobnobs]

He doesn't give a date, but says "shortly" after he was traded to Vancouver. Which was in June 2006.

He mentioned he declined it because he just moved to Vancouver. He had just bought a house in Florida, then got traded. Then bought a house in Vancouver and got offer sheeted. So he didn't want to uproot his family twice in one summer.

He mentioned the offer sheet was for more than what he signed for in Vancouver.

Luongo didn't buy a house (mansion) in Vancouver until August so doubt that was an issue. He just didn't want to sign with Detroit after just having been traded to Vancouver.