Homer thread, I know, but this kid has been absolutely lights out this year, despite missing camp and the first few weeks of the season with an injury. It might not be noticeable to folks checking boxscores, but his defensive game has grown leaps and bounds over the summer, after finishing his rookie season on a downward defensive trend. This season, on any given night, it's a good bet that he'll be the Devils best defensive player.
He's had entire games where he's patrolled and controlled the defensive zone like a young Jaccob Slavin - it's uncanny how much he's resembled Slavin at times with his reach, skating ability, smarts, and physicality. He's obviously not there yet, but he's showing a much higher defensive ceiling than I ever expected.
For the better part of the past month he's been one of the best all around 5v5 dmen in the league, with a 67.8% expected goal share in his last 10 games, and a league leading 2.13 expected goal differential/60 in that span.
And in the last handful of games, he's taken his game to a level beyond even that. The elite defensive play and shot suppression metrics have been great, but what's really starting to show is his offensive potential. In the last few games he's increasingly looked like his older brother in the offensive zone, which is a scary thought for a guy with his size, reach, and maturing defensive play. Since Nov 12th, he ranks 1st in xGF/60 (4.04), 1st in rel xGF/60 (+1.7) and 1st in xG% (67.8%) among the ~170 dmen with >100 5v5 mins.
Stat watchers may think he's regressed offensively, but look at the improvement in his underlying numbers:
And now that his on ice sh% is starting to recover (after a sub 2% on ice sh% through his first 9-10 games), he's starting to pile up points, with 7 points in his last 9 games despite minimal PP time. His 5v5 on ice sh% is still pitifully low at 5.0%, so we should expect to see continued upwards movement.
It wouldn't shock me to see him to break 45-50 points this year, even with 2nd PP duties and missing 9 games. Devils need to lock him up now before he gets too expensive.
He's had entire games where he's patrolled and controlled the defensive zone like a young Jaccob Slavin - it's uncanny how much he's resembled Slavin at times with his reach, skating ability, smarts, and physicality. He's obviously not there yet, but he's showing a much higher defensive ceiling than I ever expected.
For the better part of the past month he's been one of the best all around 5v5 dmen in the league, with a 67.8% expected goal share in his last 10 games, and a league leading 2.13 expected goal differential/60 in that span.
And in the last handful of games, he's taken his game to a level beyond even that. The elite defensive play and shot suppression metrics have been great, but what's really starting to show is his offensive potential. In the last few games he's increasingly looked like his older brother in the offensive zone, which is a scary thought for a guy with his size, reach, and maturing defensive play. Since Nov 12th, he ranks 1st in xGF/60 (4.04), 1st in rel xGF/60 (+1.7) and 1st in xG% (67.8%) among the ~170 dmen with >100 5v5 mins.
Stat watchers may think he's regressed offensively, but look at the improvement in his underlying numbers:
And now that his on ice sh% is starting to recover (after a sub 2% on ice sh% through his first 9-10 games), he's starting to pile up points, with 7 points in his last 9 games despite minimal PP time. His 5v5 on ice sh% is still pitifully low at 5.0%, so we should expect to see continued upwards movement.
It wouldn't shock me to see him to break 45-50 points this year, even with 2nd PP duties and missing 9 games. Devils need to lock him up now before he gets too expensive.
