But you can’t actually predict what those roles will be it doesn’t matter if it’s 66.666% of the time you expect to roll a certain value because he might very well roll 300-1s in a row. We say it’s unlikely we like to pass off the idea that that could never happen, but as a lifelong dungeons and dragons player I can assure you it can.
it’s like the card deck. The odds of drawing a royal flush straight off the top of the deck are pretty minimal but they’re actually identical to the odds of drawing any other five cards straight off the deck. We apply meaning to the royal flush as opposed to a two of clubs or three of spades or five of diamonds or seven hearts in and nine are diamonds but the odds actually don’t change. And you can play the odds and play the odds play the odds and still lose. And that’s for a simple thing where there’s only 52 variablesNow imagine hockey.
A dynamic shifting action filled game. With a couple dozen humans running around with knives in thier feet. slumps happen hot streaks happen opponents learn your weaknesses and take advantage of them, you learn your opponents weaknesses and take advantage of them.line matchups change there’s so much happening.
So yeah I think when it comes to drafting and developing a young hockey player, I think if your entire glimpse of what that player could be is bound up in one statistical analysis, I don’t think you seeing the whole picture.
That’s why they don’t put error bars on goalie save percentage because if they did there wouldn’t be anything to talk about.