Player Discussion Linus Ullmark (G)

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Save percentage is a lot lower on average than it was a few years ago. A .900+ goalie over a large enough workload is a good goalie now. .909 over 41+ games is a top 5-10 starter in the league. That's how depressed save percentage is.

Ullmark's highs are MVP tier performances. His play before getting hurt was the catalyst for us getting back into the race, and he has stolen some very important games for us, like the Detroit game last month that was a fork in the road for both teams.

There are games where he lets in some goals that look like he should have them. He is a goalie who claims to want to see the puck, so I think there are sometimes difficulties when our players don't clear the crease or box guys out in front of him.

If we clinch playoffs and he is on, he could absolutely steal us a round of the MVP Ullmark shows up.

 

[bicboi64]

As good as Ullmark has been (13th in save percentage), Forsberg is 27th in with a .901. He's statistically what you'd ask for in a back up goalie and his highs and lows aren't too different from Ullmark.

I'm going from being open to him returning, to actively wanting him back if he's at a similar caphit. Even with Merilainen's emergence, the league is becoming a 3 goalie league and when/if Ullmark gets hurt next season, it helps to have someone that can step in for 20-30 games and give us league average goaltending at the least.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Ullmark is 12th in the league in goals saved above expectations per 60 (minimum 30GP), so he's been an above-average starter this season, just hasn't brought quite as much consistency as we would have hoped.

Still blows my mind Staios was able to get him from a divisional rival for a late 1st, a 4th liner and got the Bruins to take on Korpisalo @ 3M x 4YRs. Masterful stuff.

 

[Silky Johnson]

As good as Ullmark has been (13th in save percentage), Forsberg is 27th in with a .901. He's statistically what you'd ask for in a back up goalie and his highs and lows aren't too different from Ullmark.

I'm going from being open to him returning, to actively wanting him back if he's at a similar caphit. Even with Merilainen's emergence, the league is becoming a 3 goalie league and when/if Ullmark gets hurt next season, it helps to have someone that can step in for 20-30 games and give us league average goaltending at the least.

Have to disagree with you here. Merilainen is ready for 25-35 NHL games. I don't want to mess with his development so we can keep Forsberg.

He has been OK this year but is just a middling backup over his career.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Merilainen deserves a shot at backup. Won't get that if Forsberg is signed to a 1-way deal.

We should try to sign a good AHL goalie as insurance, should Merilainen struggle.

 

[SpezDispenser]

What happened with him and Peters?

 

[Micklebot]

What happened with him and Peters?

They talked, afterwards Ullmark smashed his stick on the boards, then Ullmark got a vacuum and cleaned up the mess.

 

[Cosmix]

As good as Ullmark has been (13th in save percentage), Forsberg is 27th in with a .901. He's statistically what you'd ask for in a back up goalie and his highs and lows aren't too different from Ullmark.

I'm going from being open to him returning, to actively wanting him back if he's at a similar caphit. Even with Merilainen's emergence, the league is becoming a 3 goalie league and when/if Ullmark gets hurt next season, it helps to have someone that can step in for 20-30 games and give us league average goaltending at the least.

Ullmark's cap hit will be $8.25M. Forsberg's current cap hit is $2.75M. If Forsberg signs for the same amount, our cap hit for goaltenders would be $11M. Add the Korpisalo retained salary of $1M would increase our goaltender cap hit to $12M. Add the Sogaard salary of $0.775M takes it to $12.775M. Far too much.

I think we will need a goaltender who is paid about $1M or less for next season and beyond. So I doubt that Forsberg is signed. I think Sogaard will be traded or play in Belleville. I think the best option is Merillainen. However, Staios might want to sign a vet goaltender and let Merillainen develop in Belleville.

 

[Cosmix]

They talked, afterwards Ullmark smashed his stick on the boards, then Ullmark got a vacuum and cleaned up the mess.

Would be interesting to know what was said and why Ullmark seemed to get upset. Might just have been a broken stick or could be getting angry because he wanted some rest for his bad back. Or could be he did not like Peters comments about his play.

 

[SpezDispenser]

They talked, afterwards Ullmark smashed his stick on the boards, then Ullmark got a vacuum and cleaned up the mess.

There must be something going on though, aside from him being pissed and cleaning up splinters.

 

[bicboi64]

Ullmark's cap hit will be $8.25M. Forsberg's current cap hit is $2.75M. If Forsberg signs for the same amount, our cap hit for goaltenders would be $11M. Add the Korpisalo retained salary of $1M would increase our goaltender cap hit to $12M. Add the Sogaard salary of $0.775M takes it to $12.775M. Far too much.

I think we will need a goaltender who is paid about $1M or less for next season and beyond. So I doubt that Forsberg is signed. I think Sogaard will be traded or play in Belleville. I think the best option is Merillainen. However, Staios might want to sign a vet goaltender and let Merillainen develop in Belleville.

Hoping we can find someone established that will take a 1 year prove it type deal but we might have to go bargain bin shopping or take a chance on an unknown. Hopefully Ullmark starts hitting career highs for games played and can do 50-60 games

 

[PlayersLtd]

Would be interesting to know what was said and why Ullmark seemed to get upset. Might just have been a broken stick or could be getting angry because he wanted some rest for his bad back. Or could be he did not like Peters comments about his play.

The hypothetical scenario where he raged after being asked to play through a back injury is Hulk level anger management stuff and highly unlikely.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

Merilainen deserves a shot at backup. Won't get that if Forsberg is signed to a 1-way deal.

We should try to sign a good AHL goalie as insurance, should Merilainen struggle.

Yeah and we’re already spending $8.25M on Ullmark + $1M on Korpisalo. $9.25M on goaltending before even adding the backup.

Meralainen’s low salary and development will need to take priority here.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

Also, from Mike Kelly:

Ullmark credited with his 8th 'Steal' of the season last night. Filip Gustavsson leads the NHL with 9.
Ullmark with 3.74 goals saved above expected in a 2-1 win - 14th best goalie performance of the season.
Last season, Ottawa had 5 steals & 14 blown starts = -9. This season, 10 steals and 6 blown starts = +4.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Also, from Mike Kelly:

Ullmark credited with his 8th 'Steal' of the season last night. Filip Gustavsson leads the NHL with 9.
Ullmark with 3.74 goals saved above expected in a 2-1 win - 14th best goalie performance of the season.
Last season, Ottawa had 5 steals & 14 blown starts = -9. This season, 10 steals and 6 blown starts = +4.

What I like about this is even if we had league average goaltending we'd still be in wc2. But keep in mind the Rangers have had even better goaltending than we've had and are behind us right now.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Whatever Peters said to him, it worked.

 

[Cosmix]

Based on Merillainen's play with Belleville and his games with Ottawa, its seems he is an NHL level goaltender already and therefore could successfully fill the backup role next season.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Based on Merillainen's play with Belleville and his games with Ottawa, its seems he is an NHL level goaltender already and therefore could successfully fill the backup role next season.

It sounds like that is the plan.

Garrioch even threw out the idea that they would buyout Sogaard's one way money.

I think that Forsberg has been a fine backup during the second half of the season, but he can likely see the writing in the wall here. Merilainen is coming for his job, and Ullmark has the starting gig. It would be a bad career move to stay here.

 

[Norris4Norris]

Yeah and we’re already spending $8.25M on Ullmark + $1M on Korpisalo. $9.25M on goaltending before even adding the backup.

Meralainen’s low salary and development will need to take priority here.

I would like to sign Forsberg to a one or two year deal for a couple of reasons.

Firstly he is playing very well for a backup. The second reason is that Forsberg and/or Ullmark will most likely be injured next year at some point and Merilainen could continue to grow then.

Thirdly, I have a question. If we don't sign Merilainen to a 1-way contract next year do we have him as a restricted free agent for a longer period of time?

 

[Knave]

It's an interesting contrast. Earlier in the season the narrative was he was too laid back and he doesn't want to play. Now he's smashing sticks in practice and he's too fiery for some people.

I'm not calling anyone a hypocrite it's just interesting to see the ups and downs of a season for a goaltender and thankfully most games he has been good to great for us which is exactly what this team needs to make the playoffs.

 

[JD1]

Also, from Mike Kelly:

Ullmark credited with his 8th 'Steal' of the season last night. Filip Gustavsson leads the NHL with 9.
Ullmark with 3.74 goals saved above expected in a 2-1 win - 14th best goalie performance of the season.
Last season, Ottawa had 5 steals & 14 blown starts = -9. This season, 10 steals and 6 blown starts = +4.

That's neat data. Do you have a link for that. Would like to read more about it

 

[Mr Hat]

I would like to sign Forsberg to a one or two year deal for a couple of reasons.

Firstly he is playing very well for a backup. The second reason is that Forsberg and/or Ullmark will most likely be injured next year at some point and Merilainen could continue to grow then.

Thirdly, I have a question. If we don't sign Merilainen to a 1-way contract next year do we have him as a restricted free agent for a longer period of time?

I get the benefit of having Forsy around he was great in his last start, but I would look at it differently.

Let’s say he’s looking for ~$3M but would think he’d want term. If one year it might be a bit more. What if we roll the dice on Levi and save $2M+ to round our 4th line.

By having redundancy at goalie comes at compromise of no 4th line depth. We mitigate risk in one position and accept weakness in another.

I can’t see Gaudette being someone who will survive playoffs. He will get slaughtered in limited minutes. We need depth and especially 4c desperately and it seems like money better spent.

 

[Norris4Norris]

I get the benefit of having Forsy around he was great in his last start, but I would look at it differently.

Let’s say he’s looking for ~$3M but would think he’d want term. If one year it might be a bit more. What if we roll the dice on Levi and save $2M+ to round our 4th line.

By having redundancy at goalie comes at compromise of no 4th line depth. We mitigate risk in one position and accept weakness in another.

I can’t see Gaudette being someone who will survive playoffs. He will get slaughtered in limited minutes. We need depth and especially 4c desperately and it seems like money better spent.

You're probably right.

Merilainen is definitely ready to back up Ullmark. Forsberg will probably get a longer term offer somewhere else.

 

[DrEasy]

I get the benefit of having Forsy around he was great in his last start, but I would look at it differently.

Let’s say he’s looking for ~$3M but would think he’d want term. If one year it might be a bit more. What if we roll the dice on Levi and save $2M+ to round our 4th line.

By having redundancy at goalie comes at compromise of no 4th line depth. We mitigate risk in one position and accept weakness in another.

I can’t see Gaudette being someone who will survive playoffs. He will get slaughtered in limited minutes. We need depth and especially 4c desperately and it seems like money better spent.

I don't even want to save Forsberg's salary to shore up forward 4th line depth, I want to use it toward a significant improvement over Giroux on our top 6. Forsberg + Hamonic + Giroux = ??? (ideally Ehlers?)

I realize some of the payroll will go toward Greig, and we'll need some for Zetterlund, but then we also have the cap going up...

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

That's neat data. Do you have a link for that. Would like to read more about it

Nah, unfortunately, I just saw a tweet about it. I’d love to see more, too, and see what defines a game as stolen or lost. He did also say:

Steal % (min. 25 starts)

Ullmark - 20.0%
Dostal - 18.2%
Gustavsson - 17.0%

Edit: it looks like steals may be when the goals saved above expected is grater than the goal differential in a game.

Found a stat for it from 8 days ago on Reddit, so these are a little outdated.

Gustavsson had 9 steals, 2 blown, +7
Dostal had 8 steals, 3 blown, +5
Helle had 6 steals, 1 blown, +5
Wolf had 5 steals, 0 blown (!!), +5

Lankinen had 2 steals, 7 blown, -5
Vasi had 4 steals, 9 blown (!!), -5
Elvis had 2 steals, 6 blown, -4
Soderblom had 3 steals, 7 blown, -4