Player Discussion Linus Ullmark (G)

[Cosmix]

If there's one thing I feel I can't play through, it's when my back flares up, and that's just old man shit hockey.

I can hardly walk when my groin and hip pain gets bad. I take Naproxen and Tylenol to stop the pain.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

I can hardly walk when my groin and hip pain gets bad. I take Naproxen and Tylenol to stop the pain.

You gotta stretch daily. Does wonders for immobility

 

[Sens9292]

Early 30s here and just diagnosed with herniated disc in L4, it’s extreme pain. I doubt he’s back this year

 

[Micklebot]

Ullmark has played an average of 34 games per season (I didn't include 2016-17 and 2017-18 where he played 1 and 5 games respectively).

He has already played 23 games this year. That means he has about 11 games left to play. There are 44 games left in this season.

He is 31 years old.

I am not confident we can get to the playoffs if he only gives us 11 more games.

This has to be one of the strangest analyses I've come across....

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I can hardly walk when my groin and hip pain gets bad. I take Naproxen and Tylenol to stop the pain.

Yikes, sounds rough man!

 

[Alex1234]

Fun fact : Doesn't anybody else find that he had a relatively easier schedule in terms of opponent strength compared to the 3 other goalies

 

[OD99]

A lot of conjecture here, so I will jump in.

A herniated disc has a wide range of symptoms and treatments. The majority of time, surgery is not required.

4 to 6 weeks can be enough time for healing although it can take several months in some cases.

We really are in wait and see mode, but his long term future isn't in any dire situation at this point.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I'd agree, players however have a tendency to play through things they shouldn't, particularly when there is more on the line than a few reg season games.

Every year, players play through things in the playoffs that would keep them out of the reg season, so the point is "can he play through it" is not so black and white as it's being portrayed as.

Playoffs are do or die, so it makes sense to play through something when it is win or go home.

At the midway point of the season, you have to think mid-to-long term.

 

[Micklebot]

Playoffs are do or die, so it makes sense to play through something when it is win or go home.

At the midway point of the season, you have to think mid-to-long term.

That's exactly the point.

Can he play through it is a gradient based on how vital the game is and how vital the game is depends on many factors.

JBD may see this year as his last chance to show he's an NHL player, he might risk playing through issues this year because if he doesn't, his next contract might end up being an AHL deal. If his current injury puts him out for the season, it could cost him millions (looking more likely it would cost him ~1 mil as he's probably a close to league min guy at best, but you get the point).

Ullmark very much does not have that pressure on him right now. It's far more important to him, and the team, that he be healthy long term. He is less likely to play through something that has a moderate to high risk of making things worse.

I don't think anyone is suggesting Ullmark just doesn't feel like playing (except maybe that one guy from earlier this season that seemed to have a grudge...), just that with his next contract already locked up, his risk aversion is likely higher (wrt potentially aggravating an injury) than if he had contract stakes on the line.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Fun fact : Doesn't anybody else find that he had a relatively easier schedule in terms of opponent strength compared to the 3 other goalies

When both goalies were available to play and not injured, no.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

A lot of conjecture here, so I will jump in.

A herniated disc has a wide range of symptoms and treatments. The majority of time, surgery is not required.

4 to 6 weeks can be enough time for healing although it can take several months in some cases.

We really are in wait and see mode, but his long term future isn't in any dire situation at this point.

I am on the > 45 year plan and its not better; it may be different .. I mean there maybe just less disc left at this point but it feels the same when it decides to let me know its still there. I would generally say there must be variations in severity of herniated discs just like many other injuries. The majority of time does little for someone that falls outside that. So generally when we don't know we just don't know.
Surgery may be in his future to fix it it all depends on how bad it is.

Fun fact : Doesn't anybody else find that he had a relatively easier schedule in terms of opponent strength compared to the 3 other goalies

Does anybody feel better? lol

 

[OD99]

I am on the > 45 year plan and its not better; it may be different .. I mean there maybe just less disc left at this point but it feels the same when it decides to let me know its still there.

I have had back/disc/sciatica issues for close to that as well but I have found treatments in the later years that made a significant difference. I hope you can get some longer tern relief!

I would generally say there must be variations in severity of herniated discs just like many other injuries.

There absolutely is.

The majority of time does little for someone that falls outside that. So generally when we don't know we just don't know. Surgery may be in his future to fix it it all depends on how bad it is.

This is my broader point. The discussion quickly tilted towards Ullmark being broken long term. There isn't any verification on what the back injury is. All we have heard so far is that it "tightened up on him" and now he is week to week.

It sucks, but let's see how he recovers, how he does through the remainder of the season and then what steps are taken in the off season.

 

[Norris4Norris]

This has to be one of the strangest analyses I've come across....

Well obviously it is a projection on his past performance. If we just look at the last three years he has averaged 43 games per season. That gives 20 game left as a projection for the rest of the season. I think that might be the more realistic view, less pessimistic for sure.

Of the 44 games left he might play less than half of those games. He is not a 55-60 games per year goalie. I am just wondering if Forsberg/Meriläinen will give solid enough goaltending to help the Sens make the playoffs.

Certainly the media is wondering the same thing:

https://thehockeynews.com/news/is-the-ottawa-senators-acquiring-a-new-backup-goalie-all-that-easy

Ottawa Senators will have to study trade market with Linus Ullmark's status uncertain

'Linus is, I guess we'll call him week to week, and he hasn't been on the ice yet.'

ottawacitizen.com

 

[Micklebot]

Well obviously it is a projection on his past performance. If we just look at the last three years he has averaged 43 games per season. That gives 20 game left as a projection for the rest of the season. I think that might be the more realistic view, less pessimistic for sure.

Of the 44 games left he might play less than half of those games. He is not a 55-60 games per year goalie. I am just wondering if Forsberg/Meriläinen will give solid enough goaltending to help the Sens make the playoffs.

Certainly the media is wondering the same thing:

https://thehockeynews.com/news/is-the-ottawa-senators-acquiring-a-new-backup-goalie-all-that-easy

Ottawa Senators will have to study trade market with Linus Ullmark's status uncertain

'Linus is, I guess we'll call him week to week, and he hasn't been on the ice yet.'

ottawacitizen.com

It's odd because it treats starts as a limited resource that can be depleted, as opposed to a decision made be a team based on availability and the alternate option.

Last year, he was available for 79 out of 82 games but only played 40.
The year before, he was available for 80 of 82 games, played 49
The year before that 79 of 82 again, and 41 played

Having a strong partner means there has been far less need for him to play any more. Does that mean he couldn't have played more though? Likely not.

When he was in Buffalo, he was unavailable for 29 games out of 56 in 2020-21, but played 20 of the 27 he was available for. A lower body injury kept him out. Maybe he was injured due to playing too heavy a load, maybe it was just bad luck, he strained something making a save on Hishier that year.

In 2019-20 He missed 17 of 69 playing only 34, this was the year you could argue he finally stole the starter role from the vet in Hutton. He was hurt in a game against Ottawa oddly enough.

2018-19 he was Hutton's backup, available for all but one game, playing 37.

So really, he's only had the two years where he had injury issues, the majority of his seasons, he didn't play more because there was another equal or better alternative option as his partner.

 

[Norris4Norris]

It's odd because it treats starts as a limited resource that can be depleted, as opposed to a decision made be a team based on availability and the alternate option.

Last year, he was available for 79 out of 82 games but only played 40.
The year before, he was available for 80 of 82 games, played 49
The year before that 79 of 82 again, and 41 played

Having a strong partner means there has been far less need for him to play any more. Does that mean he couldn't have played more though? Likely not.

When he was in Buffalo, he was unavailable for 29 games out of 56 in 2020-21, but played 20 of the 27 he was available for. A lower body injury kept him out. Maybe he was injured due to playing too heavy a load, maybe it was just bad luck, he strained something making a save on Hishier that year.

In 2019-20 He missed 17 of 69 playing only 34, this was the year you could argue he finally stole the starter role from the vet in Hutton. He was hurt in a game against Ottawa oddly enough.

2018-19 he was Hutton's backup, available for all but one game, playing 37.

So really, he's only had the two years where he had injury issues, the majority of his seasons, he didn't play more because there was another equal or better alternative option as his partner.

I didn't know he was available for all of those games. I guess that is what 2 good goalies can do for a team.

You might even be able to make the conclusion that Ullmark is likely to play 50+ games based on not having been overplayed for all of those years in Boston. Less ware and tare.

Now I am excited!

 

[bicboi64]

I didn't know he was available for all of those games. I guess that is what 2 good goalies can do for a team.

You might even be able to make the conclusion that Ullmark is likely to play 50+ games based on not having been overplayed for all of those years in Boston. Less ware and tare.

Now I am excited!

I definitely feel as though Ullmark hasn't been in a position to play 50+ games due to having another elite goaltender on the team or injuries. I definitely think we'll get a 60 game season or two out of him if health permits.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I definitely feel as though Ullmark hasn't been in a position to play 50+ games due to having another elite goaltender on the team or injuries. I definitely think we'll get a 60 game season or two out of him if health permits.

Don’t see 60 games.
Only 2-3 goalies get there.
50+ yes I can see.

 

[Micklebot]

Don’t see 60 games.
Only 2-3 goalies get there.
50+ yes I can see.

50 to 55 is what expect when a goalie is generally healthy.

I suspect Ullmark will be unavailable for 15-20, he's already missed 9 if you include tonight and from the sounds of it will miss a reasonable amount more.

I figure he plays 40 to 50 at most this year.

 

[DackellDuck]

It'd be great to have a competent (i.e. .900-.905 SV%) backup, but that seems to be uncommon in today's NHL. Only 10/32 teams have both goalies above .900:

Anaheim (Dostal + Gibson)
Colorado (Blackwood + Wedgewood)
Dallas (Oettinger + DeSmith)
Nashville (Jaros + Annunen)
NJ (Markstrom + Allen)
NYR (Shesterkin + Quick)
Toronto (Woll + Stolarz)
Vegas (Samsonov + Hill)
Washington (Thompson + Lindgren)
Winnipeg (Hellebyuck + Comrie)

We'll need to figure out how to win with .890-.900 SV%, and that means scoring goals.

We're averaging 1.6 goals/game over our last 5 games. During the win streak, we were scoring 3.67 goals/game.

So as disappointing as the Ullmark injury is, and as much as we can complain about our backups, this team needs to be able to score 3-4 goals per game if we want to stay in the playoff race. Regardless of who's in nets.

It's on Stutzle, Tkachuk, Batherson and Norris more than it is on the goalies. That foursome has scored 3 goals, combined, in the last 5 games.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

It'd be great to have a competent (i.e. .900-.905 SV%) backup, but that seems to be uncommon in today's NHL. Only 10/32 teams have both goalies above .900:

Anaheim (Dostal + Gibson)
Colorado (Blackwood + Wedgewood)
Dallas (Oettinger + DeSmith)
Nashville (Jaros + Annunen)
NJ (Markstrom + Allen)
NYR (Shesterkin + Quick)
Toronto (Woll + Stolarz)
Vegas (Samsonov + Hill)
Washington (Thompson + Lindgren)
Winnipeg (Hellebyuck + Comrie)

We'll need to figure out how to win with .890-.900 SV%, and that means scoring goals.

We're averaging 1.6 goals/game over our last 5 games.

So as disappointing as the Ullmark injury is, and as much as we can complain about our backups, this team needs to be able to score 3-4 goals per game if we want to stay in the playoff race.

I think the issue with Forsberg this year that has been pointed out here with advanced stats is that he's basically given the team a few (3 iirc) very high quality starts and the rest very far below average, almost guaranteed loss territory. He needs to level it out and the team needs to put more pucks in the net.

 

[DackellDuck]

I think the issue with Forsberg this year that has been pointed out here with advanced stats is that he's basically given the team a few (3 iirc) very high quality starts and the rest very far below average, almost guaranteed loss territory. He needs to level it out and the team needs to put more pucks in the net.

Agreed he needs to level it out, but in his last 5 starts, the team has scored 8 goals for him. They've been shutout twice.

In today's NHL, when the backup is in (even for an extended period of time), you probably need 4 goals in a game to win. That's a bigger concern, IMO.

If the expectation is that Forsberg/Merilainen/Sogaard limit it to 2 GA most nights, we have no shot.

 

[PlayOn]

It'd be great to have a competent (i.e. .900-.905 SV%) backup, but that seems to be uncommon in today's NHL. Only 10/32 teams have both goalies above .900:

Anaheim (Dostal + Gibson)
Colorado (Blackwood + Wedgewood)
Dallas (Oettinger + DeSmith)
Nashville (Jaros + Annunen)
NJ (Markstrom + Allen)
NYR (Shesterkin + Quick)
Toronto (Woll + Stolarz)
Vegas (Samsonov + Hill)
Washington (Thompson + Lindgren)
Winnipeg (Hellebyuck + Comrie)

We'll need to figure out how to win with .890-.900 SV%, and that means scoring goals.

We're averaging 1.6 goals/game over our last 5 games. During the win streak, we were scoring 3.67 goals/game.

So as disappointing as the Ullmark injury is, and as much as we can complain about our backups, this team needs to be able to score 3-4 goals per game if we want to stay in the playoff race. Regardless of who's in nets.

It's on Stutzle, Tkachuk, Batherson and Norris more than it is on the goalies. That foursome has scored 3 goals, combined, in the last 5 games.

yep. Our stars have produced virtually nothing 5 on 5 during the entire road trip, we were getting by on good goaltending and secondary scoring. Those 4 have a combined two goals 5v5 in the last 8 games.

They’ve scored some big PP goals and OT goals (even a nice SH goal by Norris), I’ll give them that, but to be that bad at ES is concerning. Hopefully it’s just a cold streak and they start popping out goals but I guess we’ll see.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Agreed he needs to level it out, but in his last 5 starts, the team has scored 8 goals for him. They've been shutout twice.

In today's NHL, when the backup is in (even for an extended period of time), you probably need 4 goals in a game to win. That's a bigger concern, IMO.

If the expectation is that Forsberg/Merilainen/Sogaard limit it to 2 GA most nights, we have no shot.

I think those are fair points. I just think they play in to each other too.

I was bullish on this team needing a guy like Ullmark to give them a foundation to get some confidence and that they'd fall flat again with backups at best like Korpisalo and Forsberg. I still believe that. The team slumping started very soon after he went down and they look fragile all over again.

When Forsberg plays, it looks to me like a team that plays like they know they're gonna lose. Didn't see that as much with Merilainen, but it's a small sample size and they did look pretty terrible in his last start. I'm worried more about the general play of the team being affected by poor goaltending than I am the goaltending being affected by not getting enough goal support I guess, but you're right, with guys like this, you're gonna need to be putting in 4-5 a night most times they play. That's a tough ask when you have to do that every game for a potentially long stretch and you don't have faith in your goaltending.

Imo this team is likely cooked if Ullmark is out for a long period of time and that's just life sometimes when you lose one of your most important horses. He was paramount to the whole makeup and state they're in at this stage of the rebuild imo and he's the one guy they can't do without more than anyone else.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

UPDATE

Linus is weak too weak

 

[DackellDuck]

When Forsberg plays, it looks to me like a team that plays like they know they're gonna lose.

That's not really on Forsberg (or Merilainen) though, that's on the players and coaches.

The reality of today's NHL is that your "starter" is going to play 45-55 games and your backup (or combination of backups) will give you a sub .900 SV%.

If you want to be a good team, you have to figure out how to win in those 30-35 with your backups.

Forsberg can certainly improve, for sure, but he's not going to get back to that .917SV% from a couple years ago. .895 is realistic (which is better than what he's been so far), but that means if you give up 30 shots, you're going to give up 3-4 goals per game.

So you have to score 4-5.

Tkachuk, Stutzle, Norris, Sanderson, Chabot and Batherson all make big money. It's on them.

If we start losing 6-5... then I'll blame the goalies.