Likelihood Sens sign both Duchene and Stone

[Gil Gunderson]

Based on the results of this poll I see a lot of the pessimists are still around. I bet they both get signed although I wouldn't mind trading Duchene for Noah Dobson plus ... they should be able to afford at least one of them & I would re-sign Stone.

Pessimism is sometimes rationalism.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Pessimism is sometimes rationalism.

Pessimism has been a far more accurate view than optimism when it comes to this team.

The optimists on HFSens have been laughably inaccurate with their predictions over the last 5-10YRs.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Based on the results of this poll I see a lot of the pessimists are still around. I bet they both get signed although I wouldn't mind trading Duchene for Noah Dobson plus ... they should be able to afford at least one of them & I would re-sign Stone.

The best prospect Dorion was able to get for Karlsson was Josh Norris. You think he can get Dobson + for Duchene? From Lamiorello?

If the NYI are in a playoff race and want Duchene (he'd be a pure rental), we'd be more likely to get Ho-Sang than Dobson, especially with Pierre at the helm.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I'm not sure if the 8-9M players are getting their salaries structured like the superstars, are they?

I believe more in the 20-40 % range seems to be standard for that caliber of players. That said, people made a big deal about a player of Tavares' caliber hitting UFA, but Stone and Duchene could also be two of the best players to make it to free agency in a long time, they likely get similar treatment with insane bonus money being offered.

Tough scenario for our two since they're months away from UFA and would know that they can probably bargain for something more extreme like Tavares with teams lining up for them. There's even been some speculation that we will also have to overpay compared to others because of the current state of the competitiveness of the team.

I don't want to just come off as negative for the sake of being negative like I have been guilty of before, but I really don't see us being able to meet their demands financially and convincing them both to want to stay.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

The best prospect Dorion was able to get for Karlsson was Josh Norris. You think he can get Dobson + for Duchene? From Lamiorello?

If the NYI are in a playoff race and want Duchene (he'd be a pure rental), we'd be more likely to get Ho-Sang than Dobson, especially with Pierre at the helm.

Ya that's the other side of the sword here. No confidence in Dorion making even more major trades. Dude just needs to slow down and stop playing NHL19 franchise mode.

 

[Karl Prime]

The best prospect Dorion was able to get for Karlsson was Josh Norris. You think he can get Dobson + for Duchene? From Lamiorello?

If the NYI are in a playoff race and want Duchene (he'd be a pure rental), we'd be more likely to get Ho-Sang than Dobson, especially with Pierre at the helm.

Yeah, Dobson is completely out of the question for Duchene as a rental. We'd be lucky to get Toews and a 2nd.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I'm wondering if Brown is going to pan out.

I think Mann will get to him in Belleville. He had a couple good preseason games , against Laval but still.. He did his part.

 

[NyQuil]

Formenton and Tkachuk are looking good.

 

[Micklebot]

I'm not sure if the 8-9M players are getting their salaries structured like the superstars, are they?

This years 8-9 mil signings: Wheeler got a single year of 4 mil in bonus money, Couture got 16 mil in bonuses loaded in the first 4 years, Carlson got 28 mil in bonuses over 8 years, and Ekman-Larssson got 9.25 mil spread across the two potential lockout years.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

This years 8-9 mil signings: Wheeler got a single year of 4 mil in bonus money, Couture got 16 mil in bonuses loaded in the first 4 years, Carlson got 28 mil in bonuses over 8 years, and Ekman-Larssson got 9.25 mil spread across the two potential lockout years.

Kovalchuk is like 60-70% bonus money too iirc.

 

[coladin]

This years 8-9 mil signings: Wheeler got a single year of 4 mil in bonus money, Couture got 16 mil in bonuses loaded in the first 4 years, Carlson got 28 mil in bonuses over 8 years, and Ekman-Larssson got 9.25 mil spread across the two potential lockout years.

Thanks for the info, maybe it might be doable on these smaller contracts. They are going to overpay for both I think.

 

[KAPOW]

i see stone more likely than duchene. in a romantic sports world stone remembers who took a chance on him late round while he was injured.
duchene has no ties here.

 

[Peptic Balcers]

i see stone more likely than duchene. in a romantic sports world stone remembers who took a chance on him late round while he was injured.
duchene has no ties here.

In a romantic sports world Duchene realizes a gm burned his entire team to the ground to acquire him, so he does a solid back?

Nah

 

[bert]

Pessimism is sometimes rationalism.

Why would anyone think they are going to sign them after whats gone on in the last 16 months?

 

[Xspyrit]

Trading EK for scraps so we wouldn't have to take back money.
Putting our 2nd line C on waivers to save money when we are already woefully weak down the middle with Pageau injury.

Literally every single one of the moves we make are $ motivated.

Why would Arizona not take Chabot and Smith for Hossa?

Why wouldn't Detroit do a similar deal for Zetterburg and/or Franzen?

Vegas for Clarkson?

Eugene has options if he chooses to go that route.

I have been very vocal as why I didn't like this trade but really don't agree with the word "scraps" here. In value order from my perspective :

- A 1st in 2019 or 2020 is not scrap, possibly could be high if the Sharks miss the playoffs this year or next (which is very possible, particularly next year if EK walks while many of their good players get older and since the competition in the league is so high). It could easily end up as the best asset in the deal (like everyone think Sens 1st in 2019 is the best asset in the Duchene trade right now). We know teams value first round picks as a premium nowadays.

- Balcers and Norris aren't scrap, they're probably on Formenton/Chlapik level as prospects. Still very young, they could boom.

- Tierney is not scrap, he's on Pageau level. Even younger than Pageau, just turned 24 y/o. Was 4th in Sharks forward scoring last year, with very little PP time. Could get a good/decent return for him at the deadline this year or next (depending, for example, on what they decide to do with Pageau)

- A 2nd in 2019 is not scrap. If they draft well, that pick could turn into another good prospect (recent Sens 2nd rounders : Tychonick, Formenton, Dahlen, Gagne, Chlapik)

- DeMelo is not scrap because he plays in the NHL but I'd agree that he didn't have any value, so just a throw-in in the trade

And 2 more conditional picks, very hard to say if one of them will materialize right now. Not ranking their value for now.

Of course, with quality for quantity deals, there's risk that the return totally busts or booms, it really depends on how young players are developed and how picks are made.

The rest of your post, not sure what to make with it. We know Smith was waived in a desperate attempt to get rid of his salary. The comments after, as well as the letter on his jersey and his opportunity with Stone is all conjecture with "saving face" with casual fans who don't follow the team as much.

Arizona would take Chabot and Smith for Hossa without even thinking, like every other NHL team. But you know Smith makes 3.25 per season for the next 3 years, it sure seems a lot but it's not even the average NHL salary which is probably closer to 4.0 nowadays...

We know that (almost) every move is money related, but can't see Melnyk sacrificing Chabot to save a few millions (maybe 7 millions 3 years with a replacement player making in average 1.0 per year). As much as I dislike Melnyk, I don't see something like that happening.

The debate was if Melnyk would use valuable assets to acquire cap hits to meet the floor without increasing his actual payroll.

Xspirit was suggesting that Melnyk would have to sign Stone and/or Duchene to get to the cap floor. I was trying to demonstrate how he could go another season of spending far below the floor in an effort to make it to the lockout.

Xspyrit

And no, I was not necessarily suggesting that. The point of my initial post was to demonstrate that Melnyk won't have the choice, he will have to spend money to reach the cap floor.

Trade Duchene, Stone, Dzingel? Get rid of Smith and Ryan? Even trade Ceci?

Then there's absolutely no chance the team reach the cap floor, even if they get a few Hossa contracts.

I said that keeping Stone and Duchene is my hope, but don't worry I know that with Melnyk it's very far from guaranteed.

A new ownership group that invests in this team could turn things around in a hurry.

Good point, we're spending like ~55 M$ on the roster right now. The line-up could be a lot better with 20-25 more M$.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I think we sign stone

I see absolutely no reason why Duchene would sign here... that's not a knock on the org either.. he left Colorado to play playoff hockey... were not at the stage he is.

 

[OttawaSenators11]

I think they both get traded. Strange that Ottawa hasn't given Stone the C

 

[BondraTime]

I think they both get traded. Strange that Ottawa hasn't given Stone the C

Sens aren't confident in him staying, otherwise he would have the C as some good PR to move forward with

 

[Ray Kinsella]

I think Stone is far more likely to stay. Duchene didn't want to be part of a rebuild in Colorado so why would he want to be in one here? He's said the right things so far but I don't know if that means much in the long run.

I honestly couldn't blame him for leaving. He doesn't have 3 yrs or more to hang out and find out what's going to happen.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

NHL Rumor Roundup: 10 players most likely to be traded in 2018-19

IMO these guys will stay as a pair or not at all.

 

[Fandlauer]

NHL Rumor Roundup: 10 players most likely to be traded in 2018-19

IMO these guys will stay as a pair or not at all.

Lmao. 10 players most likely to be traded? Sens are 1 and 1. f*** we're a sad sack franchise.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Pessimism is sometimes rationalism.

But it's always irritating after the point has been made.

The reason people continue to rain down the negativity after everyone is crystal where they stand is that negative folks don't seem to like it when they are around people who are positive, especially when it concerns the same topic.

Every single thread has to be be infiltrated by negative snark no matter what the topic, even the positive thread.

In a perfect world they would boycott this site as well and let people who want to enjoy the team do so; live and let live ya know.

Nothing like watching the opener the next morning, enjoying the game, and then popping into the PGT/GDT thread to see it filled with folks trashing the team and players all the way through.

"If I can't enjoy the team NO ONE WILL!" The unofficial motto of HF Sens....

 

[OttawaSenators11]

Sens aren't confident in him staying, otherwise he would have the C as some good PR to move forward with

Yup i don't think he'll commit or they;ll low ball him and end up trading his ass.
Same deal with Duchene.
Ceci will sign long term though money has to go somewhere , right ?

 

[Samsquanch]

Ask me 2 weeks ago and I would have told you that I don't care anymore (so technically no). But call me crazy, it feels like the dark cloud surrounding this team is subsiding.

If the young guns can continue show them that it's worth sticking around, and if we stay out of the bottom basement this year, I could actually see both of the resigning and embracing the role of inheriting this team, figuratively speaking.

Edit: only if f***er Mc f*** Face will step up and pay them, which is anyone's guess.

 

[JD1]

I believe more in the 20-40 % range seems to be standard for that caliber of players. That said, people made a big deal about a player of Tavares' caliber hitting UFA, but Stone and Duchene could also be two of the best players to make it to free agency in a long time, they likely get similar treatment with insane bonus money being offered.

Tough scenario for our two since they're months away from UFA and would know that they can probably bargain for something more extreme like Tavares with teams lining up for them. There's even been some speculation that we will also have to overpay compared to others because of the current state of the competitiveness of the team.

I don't want to just come off as negative for the sake of being negative like I have been guilty of before, but I really don't see us being able to meet their demands financially and convincing them both to want to stay.

Micklebot has a good post a few below yours on bonus money in that 8 to 9 m range

Tavares is interesting. The league is clearly on teams to stop the bonus money. Toronto already has Nylander sitting out. In a league getting faster, Tavares wasn't fast to begin with and is getting older. By year's end, after another playoff defeat because they have no D, I'm thinking the Leafs brass will be looking at Tavares and thinking omg what have we done. at best he'll be their 3rd best player come spring of 19.

and I think his contract structure and his play will have the rest of the league having some second thoughts.

hopefully we get our two guys signed and the bonus money is in and around 20M on what should be 60m type deals.

personally I'm a bit worried about stone for the same reasons as tavares