So I was asked for a preview of the season, and now the mercato has closed, we can see the picture a bit clearer.
Here is my analysis of Ligue 1's clubs :
First, keep in mind we'll have FOUR relegated teams at the end of the season (L1 is going back to 18 clubs).
Ajaccio :
No business being here, as only a major ref mistake allowed them to promote. This is a team that couldn't score in L2. Their D won't be enough to save them.
Key player : Mangani. Old but still efficient, with world class penalty kick skills
Young players to watch : Cimignani is the best prospect, winger with great technique. Has been in touch with other teams for a transfer.
Prediction : 18-20, relegated
Angers :
Another team who will be lucky to escape relegation. Selling Cho and others was really a risky move, especially by only bringing back two defensemen including a L2 prospect (Camara, still a great signing). All their interesting players are players that didn't break out (Alioui, Diony, Taibi, etc...) when they were expected to.
Key player : Boufal can still unbalance a defense on one dribble. But the guy is often injured.
Young players to watch : Ousman Camara was bought from PFC and is very very interesting. Also Batista Mendy is still only 22 and is a very good player in midfield.
Prediction : 16-19, relegated
Auxerre :
If karma is right, Auxerre will stay up. They have a very thin team, but they're trying to play positive football, contrary to Ajaccio, Angers and others. It's such a joy to see them reach L1 again, and of course, thanks to their offensive coach JM Furlan who specializes in promoting and then relegating every team he coaches.
Key player : Hein is a technical player who never had the chance to shine in L1. Now he has and it's nice to see.
Young players to watch : I'll vote Brayann Pereira, bought from Lens and whose potential is huge. Now he has lots to learn, as can be seen from his first game that was absolutely awful.
Prediction : 12-16
Brest :
Team was once again overachieving until suddenly they got destroyed at home by Montpellier 7-0. I have no explanation for that disaster that nobody could see coming given the forms of both teams. Brest has a solid goalie (Bizot), a solid team defense (but not great individually), decent midfielders and solid unspectacular offensive players (Slimani was signed recently to add some presence). This is a team that should not be top half, but should not be relegated. But they do overachieve, so finishing 8-10 isn't impossible.
Key player : Honorat. Had a great season last year and was in touch for a transfer that never materialized.
Young players to watch : Dembele. Former Celtic sensation signed out of nowhere. No impact yet, but who knows?
Prediction : 11-14
Clermont :
Another team which survived relegation thanks to positive play last year. Because that roster simply isn't L1 quality. More of the same this year. Second year will be tougher though since teams have had time to realize they're not to be taken lightly.
Key player : Andric. Serbian striker has helped on a team that has trouble finishing.
Young players to watch : Cham is an austrian AM with good finishing skills.
Prediction : 14-18 relegated
Lens :
Wow, they're on a roll, regardless of their player movement. Losing Kalimuendo was immediately replaced by signing Openda whose impact has been excellent. Samba was added in goal and has been excellent. Cabot replaced Clauss and Onana has replaced Doucoure. Nobody could replace Seko Fofana though and he chose to stay despite the big clubs and the money because there aren't many stadiums worth playing after Bolleart. He's an idol there, as he should be because he's a top player. Lens is tied for the lead but will struggle through some patches of the season because they don't have the depth nor the inner quality. Still Haize is a fantastic manager. Only negative is that they accepted an offer for their young up and coming defenseman Wooh from Rennes in the last hour of the mercato (10M ws too good to pass up) and Gradit has injured himself since, so they have 2 healthy CBs.
Key player : Seko Fofana. Absolutely amazing.
Young players to watch : Openda, belgian scoring machine, Pereira Da Costa, creative midfielder, Jean Onana, seriously strong midfielder,
Prediction : 3-6 Europa League
Lille :
Fonseca is a very good coach. I like him, like his methods and I think he can have success in Lille, where last year's coach killed them after the title. They still have a bunch of the players that won that title. I see them finishing top half with ease.
Key player : Jonathan David. He can press, score and pass. Can be a bit clumsy, but so much effort.
Young players to watch : Lucas Chevalier is a goalie with a bright future. Jardim isn't impressive and Chevalier could clearly take his spot soon. Djalo is still young and can play every defensive postition. He still needs to focus more. Angel Gome has been put in midfield and has shined next to Andre and Gomes (yes, not kidding). Virginius has been bought from Sochaux and he's an explosive winger who could really blow out.
Prediction : 7-10
Lorient :
Team which should be relegated based on its roster but their coach Lebris has made them play amazing football. They're finding themselve with eyes closed. Brilliant.
Key player : Moffi is a tough player to stop in the box. And he's damn fast too.
Young players to watch : the big one is Enzo Le Fee, wanted by several french and german teams. He rejected them all last summer. Aouchiche will try to revive his career after his terrible years at St Etienne.
Prediction : 8-12
Lyon :
Team in a funk. They're winning but not playing well. They have GLARING holes on their roster. The coach who's about to be fired every week is playing with the confidence of its players and fans. He has never managed to do what he wanted with his team. They have quality midfielders but have one good CB and are playing a MF as the second CB. They have two youngsters at RB. They're still playing Toko Ekambi while benching Cherki, Dembele or Barcola. Dembele is free next summer and they couldn't sell him. They have a huge prospect coming up at midfield (El Arouch), but have not managed to sell Aouar, so they have Caqueret, Lepenant, Tolisso, Aouar, Faivre and Reine Adelaire in front of him. The good news is that Lacazette is quality, Tete too, and their midfielders are among the top in L1. Oh and they have the brightest young CB talent in L1 too (Lukeba).
Key player : Lacazette. Leader, passer, presser, scorer. What an addition.
Young players to watch : plenty to see here. Lukeba is amazing at CB. Caqueret, Lepenant are fantastic young midfielders. Gusto is the future at RB for the NT. El Arouch is he gets some playing time is a phenom. Barcola has shown tons of promise...
Prediction : 5-8 if they're not changing coach and have a great winter mercato.
Marseille :
After asking for their coach's firing before the season even starters, Tudor has shown to be astute and above all efficient. His system based on the WB is perfect for a team with Clauss and Tavares. They did lose Saliba, but Bailly and Mbemba are good additions. They also added Veretout, Sanchez and Suarez. This team could be tough to beat.
Key player : Payet will either be a positive or negative leader. If he continues to play so few minutes, he'll throw a tantrum and the season could turn for the bad.
Young players to watch : Isaak Toure is a huge specimen from Le Havre. Giant of a defenseman and has shown some great quality. Kabore showed great promise last year at Troyes. Dieng was supposed to be sold, but if he stays, he could help.
Prediction : 2-4 CL
Monaco :
Notorious slow starters who failed again in the CL qualifiers. Losing Tchouameni is a disaster, but signing Camara was smart, although too late for the CL. Losing Diop was bad, and Minamino has been disastrous so far. Embolo will help up front and Y. Fofana will pick up the slack in the middle.
Key player : Ben Yedder, still.
Young players to watch : Vanderson is a tremendous FB, Akliouchr is a MF filled with promise, Camara is an excellent MF from Salzburg, Matazo has stalled a little but still only 20, Boadu has struggled hard, Efekele is as always compared to Mbappe, which is unfair to the kid.
Prediction : 2-4 CL/Europa
Montpellier :
Coach was supposed to be fired but they proceeded to win 7-0 away. Still the team hasn't meshed well. I don't see them reaching the top half although the roster should.
Key player : Savanier is as talented as he is crazy
Young players to watch : Wahi is a very good scorer and has scored a lot already in L1, Chotard is a great passing DM, Maxime Esteve has emerged a defensive leader.
Prediction : 10-13
Nantes :
Another team that has overachieved, and will probably continue to if the EL doesn't take too much energy. They kept Blas and Lafont, which was the key to their summer.
Key player : Ludovic Blas is an awesome player who can create for others and himself. I will add Alban Lafont who's arguably the best keeper in L1.
Young players to watch : Quentin Merlin has been turned into a dynamic LB, Guessand bought from Nice is going to score some key goals, and Gor Manvelyan (former student of mine) is about to be given time and could break out. He was the best scorer of the U19 league.
Prediction : 8-11
Nice :
What a letdown. Favre is struggling to far with this team and selling Gouiri is a bad sign. Getting Diop is a huge positive though. Keeping Todibo and Thuram as well. They should get better at the season goes on but Dante shouldn't start at his age. A late spending spree won't be enough but should help (Diop, Pepe, Laborde, Barkley)
Key player : Todibo, leader of the defense and one of the best CB in L1.
Young players to watch : Beka Beka scored a great goal in EL, Thuram is one of the best MF in L1, Ilie has been given some good playing time so far.
Prediction : 5-8
PSG :
Smart smart mercato in terms of arrivals (Vitinha, Soler, Ruiz, Sanches, Ekitike, Mukiele) and they finally got rid of plenty of dead weight, either through transfers or loans (some with mandatory clauses). Galtier has always been a coach players go to war for. I had doubts about his ability to lead a lockeroom of stars (I shouldn't have) and his ability to adapt his defensive recipe (he has changed his whole system!) and create offensively (to be determined, still not convinced). The positivity around PSG has never been this high and you can see a whole different energy. They have also played some games with a quality that hasn't been seen in years (since Blanc in fact). Mbappe staying is a huge deal of course and Messi and Ney coming back to the top of their game is scary for the rest of Europe. L1 will be a cakewalk, but as usual, the CL will determine if this season is a success. Campos is the best DoF in the world and Qatar has decided to follow him blindly. Could be the start of something amazing.
Key player : Front 3 will do. Messi has a pass a game (not even counting his goals and... posts!), Neymar is out of this world and Mbappe is scoring at will even though he hasn't been in top form yet.
Young players to watch : Vitinha is a smart kid who's going to shine, Mendes is the best young LB in football, Ekitike is the crazy potential guy with size, speed, technique and IQ, Bitshiabu might not see much playing time but he's a giant with great passing ability, second best prospect in L1 behind... Warren Zaire Emery, PHENOM. DM who can do it all like a veteran even though he's 16. He could start for every single L1 team not named PSG RIGHT NOW.
Prediction : Duh
Reims :
Another team that will have a hard time staying up. The big surpise is the Balogun success story. Not much quality on defense, Cajuste always injured, Mbuku almost gone this summer, a coach with big words but zero actions... I could see this turn ugly.
Key player : New signing Ito is the guy who's creating a lot while Balogun is the one scoring. How long will it last I don't know, but when these two will stop producing, Reims will hit the wall. Harder than they already have.
Young players to watch : Cajuste is a very nice MF, but he has to be healthy once in a while. Lopy is a decent MFer as well, Mbuku is a talented winger but doesn't seem to get along with Garcia.
Prediction : 14-18
Rennes :
After cashing on Tell, they spent like crazy and had some of the best summer signings (Gouiri, Wooh, Theate, Kalimuendo). They're using their money smartly and have built quite the roster. For instance, their offensive options include Gouiri, Kalimuendo, Terrier (resigned), Doku, Sulemana, Majer, Abline (exciting young player), Bourigeaud (10+G and 10+A last year) and the new phenom Desire Doue. Not sure how they'll play everyone but the two speedsters Doku and Sulemana are often injured. Omari has stayed because he's injured but Bade left. PSG is interested in Omari (who isn't), but they added Wooh, Theate and Rodon. They also signed Mandanda to bring stability and leadership in goal.
Key player : Gouiri. Can he lead the line, finally played at 9? If he delivers, Rennes will be hard to stop.
Young players to watch : plenty here too. Doue is the gem. Completely absurdly talented. Sulemana is a speed merchant, similar to Doku. Defending both seems simply impossible, despite the lack of end product. But health is a concern. Abline should not see much time, but he's also an exciting young forward. Ugochukwu was impressive last year. Keep an eye on him. New Mvila written all over him. Truffert is still young despite playing for years now. Good solid LB. Omari is a phenom. Top 5 CB in L1 last year as a rookie. Wooh and Theate are very good young CB, with more experience for Theate, but impressive potential for Wooh. Alemdar is a turkish goalie with huge potential and some great reflexes but who can make terrible blunders from time to time. He'll be the backup for now.
Prediction : 2-4 CL/Europa
Strasbourg :
Not much movement in the mercato. Not going to be easy to overachieve as much as last year. Stephan is a great coach though.
Key player : Gameiro can still bang goals and he's showing great leadership and spirit.
Young players to watch : Habib Diarra is a great CM, wanted to plenty of teams. He's considered a great prospect among all of french football. The gem though is Abdoul Ouattara, young AM who's wanted by all of Europe. A bit young to see time most likely.
Prediction : 9-12
Toulouse :
Rarely has a team made such a reset after relegation and changed their whole approach. Using data, focusing on young talent from anywhere in the world (16 nationalities on the main roster), using their academy and producing some EXCITING football. They're just as nice to watch in L1 so far.
Key player : Dupe, their goalie is top notch and can win points by himself. VandenBoomen is a DM who's supremely talented in terms of passing, especially on set plays.
Young players to watch : Rouault is slow and not very strong but has everything else you want in a world class defenseman, especially IQ.
Prediction : 10-14
Troyes :
Even before the season starter, the players asked their coach to be fired. And yet he's still here, and the team is doing decent. Troyes is doing decently but shouldn't be far from relegation at season's end.
Key player : Tardieu is a veteran leader who will score the pens.
Young players to watch : former PSG sensation Odobert (didn't sign to get soome playing time at Troyes) is rocking ! He'll join a big team soon. Agoume is a former youth NT captain who never got a chance at Inter. Yasser Larouci is a very good prospect at LB.
Prediction : 13-17