LHD Ron Hainsey; Biography and Statistical Breakdown
- Thread starter garret9
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Lynk
Registered Bro
It's nice to see the breakdown from the CBJ days to when he signed the big 5 year $22mil deal. I think many people fail to understand everything that went on when he was a UFA.
Like you said, came off career high numbers as a Blue Jacket and was in an off-season dominated by UFA defensemen getting serious paychecks. And when people see him not scoring goals or providing offense it's an incredibly easy shot to take when they're being paid that type of money.
Obviously the lockout has fueled many peoples instant hatred, but if you can look at this thread objectively then perhaps it can swing a few opinions. Very well done garret.
Like you said, came off career high numbers as a Blue Jacket and was in an off-season dominated by UFA defensemen getting serious paychecks. And when people see him not scoring goals or providing offense it's an incredibly easy shot to take when they're being paid that type of money.
Obviously the lockout has fueled many peoples instant hatred, but if you can look at this thread objectively then perhaps it can swing a few opinions. Very well done garret.
Conflicted Habs fan
"Beauty will save the world" - Dostoyevsky
Impressive research on Hainsey's stats. Your conclusions are compelling and a benchmark to what we must refer to when anyone talks about him.
Outside of the numbers is the intangible factor of Hainsey being instrumental to the PA's CBA process. Would management be disrespectful to him with reduced ice time? And/or would opposing players be respectful to him on the ice allowing for better performance?
Outside of the numbers is the intangible factor of Hainsey being instrumental to the PA's CBA process. Would management be disrespectful to him with reduced ice time? And/or would opposing players be respectful to him on the ice allowing for better performance?
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
He represented the players so I think they will all be on his side.
Noel controls the TOI more than Chevy or Chipman, and I doubt any of them harbor longterm bad feelings on Hainsey
Becel
I Hate Jamie Macoun
- Sep 14, 2011
- 346
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Great job garret.
I hope this ends some of the Hainsey hate on here. Admittedly the guy makes a million or so too much (who cares people we are way below the cap floor), not his fault he signed a big contract when it was offered to him by Atlanta. Sure he was paid to be a offensive guy, but his role has changed and we don't need him to do that now. I think he has done a great job in changing his role and becoming a leader and a reliable veteran defensive minded player on D.
I hope this ends some of the Hainsey hate on here. Admittedly the guy makes a million or so too much (who cares people we are way below the cap floor), not his fault he signed a big contract when it was offered to him by Atlanta. Sure he was paid to be a offensive guy, but his role has changed and we don't need him to do that now. I think he has done a great job in changing his role and becoming a leader and a reliable veteran defensive minded player on D.
Che vy Teemuchuk
Registered User
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Thanks for the kind words!
It's funny how the Hainsey haters avoid the facts though...
Yes stats don't cover everything, but this seems to coincide what a lot of people see and notice.
It's funny how the Hainsey haters avoid the facts though...
Yes stats don't cover everything, but this seems to coincide what a lot of people see and notice.
puck stoppa
Registered User
Good analysis. I don't mind Hainsey one bit as a 4-5 dman. Once he signs somewhere for less he will be appreciated more.
Isn't $3-$4 million per season an awful lot for a 4th d-man? Seems so to me. But I have not looked at capgeek.com for comparables and your exhaustive research on the topic suggests he's somewhat good value. Even if it is somewhat OK value...shouldn't we be looking for a more cost-effective option?? That's a lot of money to dedicate to a supporting actor.
Damn your stats and logic for intruding on my emotive-based dislike for Hainsey. Still hope we let him walk after this season unless he builds an orphanage or something for the community.
Damn your stats and logic for intruding on my emotive-based dislike for Hainsey. Still hope we let him walk after this season unless he builds an orphanage or something for the community.
kyle o connor
enjoying first line highlife
It's not that he's a great value or anything like that, its more of the fact that we don't have any thing/one to spend our money on. Philly or Vancouver would have an issue with the cap hit, but we don't.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Let's find out...
Bos: 3.3 + 2.3
Min: 1.1 + 0.8
Van: 4.5 + 4.2 (3.25 next)
Cgy: 4.0 + 2.5
Phi: 4.5 + 4.0
SJS: 3.6 + 3.1
Chi: 3.5 + 3.4
Buf: 4.0 + 3.0
Mon: 3.9 + 2.0 (PK Subban not signed)
Wsh: 3.5 + 2.9
Tor: 3.9 + 1.3
TBL: 3.9 + 3.8
Edm: 3.5 + 2.3
LAK: 3.4 + 3.0
Det: 3.3 + 2.9
Pit: 3.5 + 2.3
NYR: 1.7 + 1.3 (MDZ not signed)
Car: 2.0 + 1.8
CBJ: 4.4 + 3.5
Wpg: 3.8 + 2.5
NJD: 3.4 + 3.2
Ana: 3.5 + 3.0
Nsh: 1.4 + 1.4
Col: 2.3 + 2.3
Flo: 4.0 + 3.2
StL: 2.8 + 1.3
Dal: 3.3 + 1.5
Ott: 3.1 + 3.0
NYI: 1.5 + 0.9
Pho: 3.0 + 2.8
This is just 3rd and 4th in cap hit... too lazy to delve deeper
truck
Registered User
$3 Mill is about normal for a top 4 D man that isn't on an ELC. I don't know what he will be looking for in free agency, but if he takes less than 3 on a short term deal I'd take it.
truck
Registered User
Hainsey would slot in at middle to high end of the pairs you listed, looking at the cap hits listed for 4th d-man. BTW thank you for providing the list it's like having Data from Star Trek posting on HF Jets.
I think there will be cheaper options that are par value for skill if not better. Not trade him now but as the season goes he could maybe be replaced by Redmond and moved for a pick for our future. Especially if he plays close to the value of his contract. Or keep him but I don't see too much value in re-signing him to that type of money. 4th d-man can be slot that is just as easily filled by promoting young talent or the correct FA signing as it is maintained by a costly vet/extension.
I am aware the Jets are not restricted by lack of cap space or unable to spend, however, financial prudence is a virtue. I'm certain TNSE will be of this school of thought. Especially with next summer's plethora of roster RFAs/UFAs.
I think there will be cheaper options that are par value for skill if not better. Not trade him now but as the season goes he could maybe be replaced by Redmond and moved for a pick for our future. Especially if he plays close to the value of his contract. Or keep him but I don't see too much value in re-signing him to that type of money. 4th d-man can be slot that is just as easily filled by promoting young talent or the correct FA signing as it is maintained by a costly vet/extension.
I am aware the Jets are not restricted by lack of cap space or unable to spend, however, financial prudence is a virtue. I'm certain TNSE will be of this school of thought. Especially with next summer's plethora of roster RFAs/UFAs.
Jaffray15
Registered User
I will proudly wear my Hainsey Game-Worn jersey to the first game this year and beyond that.
He was just doing his part by being a player rep.
He was just doing his part by being a player rep.
Becel
I Hate Jamie Macoun
- Sep 14, 2011
- 346
- 0
Exactly, he's a player rep. People vilify him for doing what he was supposed to be doing. He was reported to be outspoken in meetings. Of the reports I heard he blew up on Jacobs and Leopold. Hmmm I wonder what he blew up about to the owners of teams that went on the biggest spending sprees right before the lockout... hmmm...
Hainsey was the 4th D on a team with the 5th worst Goals Against in the league, didn't make much of an impact when he played (the team seemed equally successful/unsuccessful with or without him), was soft, didn't score, didn't hit, was unnoticeable at best...I just think some folks got to wondering just what exactly was he being paid $5,000,000 for.
To top it off, this poster boy for "NHL players being overpaid" was whining on TSN 1290 one afternoon about how hard done by the players are. How we couldn't have hockey not because he refused to play this season for $2.6 million instead of $3.0, but because the greedy owners were being so greedy.
So...when it's framed like that, I think some of the Hainsey hate is justified, despite those soothing Corsi fairy stories you tell the kids to get them to settle down at night...
To top it off, this poster boy for "NHL players being overpaid" was whining on TSN 1290 one afternoon about how hard done by the players are. How we couldn't have hockey not because he refused to play this season for $2.6 million instead of $3.0, but because the greedy owners were being so greedy.
So...when it's framed like that, I think some of the Hainsey hate is justified, despite those soothing Corsi fairy stories you tell the kids to get them to settle down at night...
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garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
I like Hainsey as his player; he's proven worthy of a #4 spot. He fills that #4 spot far better than any of our D lower in depth could. I'd be quite fine with having him re-signed for 2-3 mil, after all -with inflation in mind- that is likely what a replacement would be at. Truth be told, we could do worse at 3 mil too (ex: Ballard)...
...but I always thirst for more.
I want an upgrade for our #4.
I want a top 4:
Enstrom - Byfuglien
XXX - Bogosian
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Lil' off topic, but the way I look at it, I don't worry too much about bottom 3 forwards and bottom pair defense. These players play minimal roles and have minimal effect (doesn't mean they don't have any). I do care however about the top 9 F and top 4 D. I personally think we're close to what I'd call a regular playoff team but not there yet. I want one upgrade each to our top 9 and top 4: Hainsey and Wellwood. I'm not glued to any piece on the Jets, but these two roster spots are the ones needing repair.
After that, you then use prospects (from draft) and occasional UFAs to replace the pieces within the roles. Also, this is when you practice smart asset management by trading pieces that will be replaced for continuation of input in the pipeline.
I think Trouba really is that future #4 guy but he most likely wont be there (as in both in the NHL and competently handle tough defensive zone minutes) until ~2015-16. Until, then we need a stop-gap, similar to how Jokinen is for Scheifele.
Looking at our top-prospects:
*Trouba = as stated above is most likely there but not for a while
*Postma = baring any large defensive developmental jumps, will cap as a 3rd pairing D with 2nd PP in a Jets' style system; he has the skills for 2nd pairing but piss-poor decision making and positioning in the defensive zone is his crux... maybe Huddy can guide him...?
*Redmond = is all but NHL ready and has tracked better development than Stuart who has peeked as a #5; possible in-expensive candidate for stop gap for 2014-15 if he can learn the left side (side note: I was hoping McCambridge would give Redmond-Postma some even strength time together for Redmond to learn with easier QoC, but no avail)
*Melchiori + Yuen = both considered possibilities but odds are against them developing further than 3rd pairing defensemen
So, looking at optimal growth what I would do until Trouba is ready:
1: sign for someone new or re-sign Hainsey for ~2-3 mil for 1 season
2: if Redmond is ready let him take it, if not repeat step one
3: repeat until Redmond is ready
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Hainsey was the 4th D on a team with the 5th worst Goals Against in the league, didn't make much of an impact when he played (the team seemed equally successful/unsuccessful with or without him), was soft, didn't score, didn't hit, was unnoticeable at best...I just think some folks got to wondering just what exactly was he being paid $5,000,000 for.
To top it off, this poster boy for "NHL players being overpaid" was whining on TSN 1290 one afternoon about how hard done by the players are. How we couldn't have hockey not because he refused to play this season for $2.6 million instead of $3.0, but because the greedy owners were being so greedy.
So...when it's framed like that, I think some of the Hainsey hate is justified, despite those soothing Corsi fairy stories you tell the kids to get them to settle down at night...
But it's not just "Corsi" fairy tale stories (besides the fact that Corsi has huge correlation with success)...
Shots against
Goals against
+/-
whatever... they paint the same story... it's just not advanced stats... hell Corsi isn't even advanced really? It's just +/- but shots and blocked shots so it doesn't get affected by goalies...
He was successful in doing his role.
Whine all you want about how he's too "soft" but I find it just as annoying as Hainsey's $$ whining. GST and Stuart were soft but they were terrible at defending tough minutes. Enstrom is soft and he beats tough assignments. Grit is an important part of hockey, but is not the end-all just like every other individual skill involved.
He was placed on the ice in the defensive zone against the Corsby's, Malkin's, Taveres', Stamkos', etc. And more often than not, the shots and goals were in our favour when he was on the ice against him. That's the results.
Yes, his whining was annoying. I had to turn it off because I felt like I was going to shoot myself to end the pain soon. But, I can separate that from the idea of his effectiveness.
And with the non-scoring bit? Give him the 2 goals he would normally have had on average with 4% shooting, and he scored at a faster rate than any non-Byfuglien/Enstrom/Bogosian.
And with the 4th worst GA? The team had an above league average shots against... but below average sv%... which you can't blame on Hainsey since the Jets' sv% when Hainsey was on the ice was 0.927... I put most of the blame on Pavelec/Mason, followed by GST and trailed by Oduya and Stuart.
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Lynk
Registered Bro
Hainsey was the 4th D on a team with the 5th worst Goals Against in the league, didn't make much of an impact when he played (the team seemed equally successful/unsuccessful with or without him), was soft, didn't score, didn't hit, was unnoticeable at best...I just think some folks got to wondering just what exactly was he being paid $5,000,000 for.
To top it off, this poster boy for "NHL players being overpaid" was whining on TSN 1290 one afternoon about how hard done by the players are. How we couldn't have hockey not because he refused to play this season for $2.6 million instead of $3.0, but because the greedy owners were being so greedy.
So...when it's framed like that, I think some of the Hainsey hate is justified, despite those soothing Corsi fairy stories you tell the kids to get them to settle down at night...
Just sayin'
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truck
Registered User
If Hainsey gets hate because he is bad, Stuart should get more.Hainsey was the 4th D on a team with the 5th worst Goals Against in the league, didn't make much of an impact when he played (the team seemed equally successful/unsuccessful with or without him), was soft, didn't score, didn't hit, was unnoticeable at best...I just think some folks got to wondering just what exactly was he being paid $5,000,000 for.
To top it off, this poster boy for "NHL players being overpaid" was whining on TSN 1290 one afternoon about how hard done by the players are. How we couldn't have hockey not because he refused to play this season for $2.6 million instead of $3.0, but because the greedy owners were being so greedy.
So...when it's framed like that, I think some of the Hainsey hate is justified, despite those soothing Corsi fairy stories you tell the kids to get them to settle down at night...
Hainsey > Stuart at everything but fighting.
GJF
Beaver Jedi
But Stuart is paid less, fights and wasn't a spokesman for the PA during the last months.
So CLEARLY Stuart > Hainsey in EVERYTHING
I was saying Hainsey gets the hate because he was overpaid, soft, and a PA whiner.
Stuart hits, fights, gets paid in line with his role and looks like he cares out there every night...on a team that needs more of that than whatever Hainsey's bringing to the table. 9/10 fans are going to say Stuart > Hainsey.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Everything is of course relative when saying players are good or bad... But
The first thing you pointed out when it came to your post about Hainsey was the Jets' needing less goals against. Hainsey brings that while Stuart fails at that.
Due to a combination of injuries and the Oduya trade, we had an oppertuinity to see all 3 (Oduya, Hainsey and Stuart) play significant time in the #4 role.
When Stuart, Hainsey or Oduya were with Bogosian, they were exclusively being used as #4's in a shutdown defensive role.
2011-12 Bogosian with:
Stuart |369 |0.466 |0.433 |-4 |0.595 |0.811
Hainsey |272 |0.496 |0.609 |+5 |1.028 |0.609
Oduya |247 |0.499 |0.222 |-10 |0.323 |1.129
Results
Corsi-wise (ie: out-shooting their opponent): Hainsey + Oduya > Stuart
Goals-for/against-wise (ie: out-scoring their opponent): Hainsey>Stuart>Oduya
I think the Oduya results are due to Oduya having a large amount of defensive zone clearing giveaways that ended with high percentile scoring opportunities for the other team...
I think the Stuart results are showing Stuarts inept ability to push the play out of danger and consistently being beaten...
And I've explained the Hainsey results already above pretty much...
I think competency is what the Jets' need their players to bring to the table more than anything else. You win games by outscoring your opponents. You outscore your opponents by keeping the play in their zone, out of your zone and "out-chancing" your opponents. When it comes to that Hainsey>Stuart...
...and about being paid right for your role... until we have cap problems (which we won't with Hainsey since he's UFA), we really shouldn't care to the point where it is the central argument.
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But this is all lost on 99% of fans - they see Stuart throw a couple of hits, get in a fight...woooo! Hockey! They don't parse the fact that Bogosian was on the ice for 0.202 more GA /20 minutes with Stuart than he was with Hainsey.
So it appears to the average fan that Stuart > Hainsey, except Hainsey made $3.4 million more than Stuart. Plus Hainsey is the voice of the PA in a contentious labour negotiation and has a bit of a fan-unfriendly demeanour to begin with...it all adds up to hate.
