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OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

DAChampion said:
I've invested so much of my life into civ ...
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I remember hearing about this game back in University. People were unintentionally dropping out because they had become so addicted to it. I stayed far away. I knew what would happen. To this day I’ve never even seen it.

Also, interesting article on the Globe today. Talks about the insanity of these tariffs and how the market hasn’t fully priced in a recession. If that’s true and tariffs continue, we may have much further to fall. David Rosenberg: Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs’ are a con – and investors are now waking up to his bigger ambitions

I’m so tempted to jump in with more money. I have some cash in the sidelines. But by the same token, I’m also kinda tempted to sell. I’d be locking in some losses but at least they’d be smaller.

For now I think I’m doing nothing. I want to see where this goes. As for the stocks I currently have, I think I’m just going to ride this out.
 
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If ya'll was told we'd recover say within 5 years and you're getting all stocks on a discount, excluding ETFS, what would be your top three stocks you'd put all additional income in?
 
Naslundforever said:
Cheers, looking into it (mostly because curious). Wealthsimple came up as the first site, seems to be plenty of ressources as you say.

My goodness I just lost at least a year of retirement just this morning ooooof maybe I don’t look at my money in the morning for a while. I read today might be as bad as retaliatory tariffs come in.
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Retiring in 14 months so this one hurts. Lost about 7% on my retirement monies. But I don’t worry. It’ll come back.
 
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Hope Of Glory said:
Yup, that's a good point. Not all your investment need to be in bonds by the time you retire. But a portion needs to be. The proportion stocks/bonds depends on everyone's risk tolerance and spending habits.

The 4% rule is also based on getting nothing from the government. But in Quebec, if you paid the max your entire life, I think you get about 20k a year, which will turn to 30k a year (in 2025 dollars) at some point since they've increased the contribution to the pension funds. So say you want 60k$ a year in retirement, you may actually "only" need 1M$ and not 1.5M$ as the 4% rule would indicate. Don't know why but this literally just dawned on me today haha.
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It’s not what you bring in, but what you spend. I started setting my budget expenses to the level I will maintain for my pre-retirement years (working part time, probably seasonal too), from 60 to 65. I have a planner who is helping me and my GF. She’s already retired, public servant getting close to 79k a year indexed.
I am realizing that I can manage well enough, while saving for golf and travel, with about 37k net! I’m amazed. All the extra cash is put in certain savings accounts and investments.

With my 20k at 65, plus my small public servant retirement return of about (indexed) 7k, I won’t need much from my own savings.

Planner says we have over 136% of what is needed until I croak at 95 (lol).

Best advice he gave me is what I previously wrote: it’s not what you make; it’s what you spend.
 
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I've seen a theory in several places now that this was done by design so that the US could refinance much of it's massive debt at much lower rates. Assuming this is the case, trade deals will be negotiated alongside a big corporate tax rate cut for American companies that could bring the market roaring back pretty quickly once implemented as soon as the debt refinancing is finished. Let's all pray that's the plan, and it concludes sooner than later.
 
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sbhatt said:
I've seen a theory in several places now that this was done by design so that the US could refinance much of it's massive debt at much lower rates. Assuming this is the case, trade deals will be negotiated alongside a big corporate tax rate cut for American companies that could bring the market roaring back pretty quickly once implemented as soon as the debt refinancing is finished. Let's all pray that's the plan, and it concludes sooner than later.
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Trump has been wanting Jerome Powell to cut interest rates for a long time, but Powell is committed to reducing inflation, which in his mind means wages. So it's possible that this is partly Trump going around Powell to force the 10-tear Treasury yield, etc lower. So far it's working (after two days).

But Powell can respond by just raising interest rates.
 
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dinodebino said:
Retiring in 14 months so this one hurts. Lost about 7% on my retirement monies. But I don’t worry. It’ll come back.
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you weren't planning on using all of your retirement savings in 14 months though were you? Probably more like 5%? So you're down 7% of the 5% that you need in 14 months.

Unless you were planning on buying a lump sum annuity
 
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DAChampion said:
Trump has been wanting Jerome Powell to cut interest rates for a long time, but Powell is committed to reducing inflation, which in his mind means wages. So it's possible that this is partly Trump going around Powell to force the 10-tear Treasury yield, etc lower. So far it's working (after two days).

But Powell can respond by just raising interest rates.
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Well yes but Powell only really controls short term rates, the 10 year is obviously set by the market.

In any case the real pressing issue is how much federal debt will need to be refinanced over the next year, an asinine $10 trillion dollars.

One of the biggest mistakes of the Biden administration was financing all kinds of debt on short term t-bills with the thinking that the 10 year yield would drop as rates fell. The opposite was obviously true as the 10 year rose 100 basis points just from September to December last year likely in response to an inflation problem that still hasn't been solved.

If the Trump administration can get the 10 year yield to fall meaningfully that would really help with the financing problem that the US faces. The reality is that while the US debt situation isn't quite critical yet, it is at a serious pressure point that absolutely needs to be addressed. Failing to do this now could have serious consequences just 5-10 years from now.

Besides we all know the stock market is gonna overcorrect and then it's gonna blast upwards again, nothing holds SPY back long term. It'll be good times whenever that happens.
 
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sbhatt said:
I've seen a theory in several places now that this was done by design so that the US could refinance much of it's massive debt at much lower rates. Assuming this is the case, trade deals will be negotiated alongside a big corporate tax rate cut for American companies that could bring the market roaring back pretty quickly once implemented as soon as the debt refinancing is finished. Let's all pray that's the plan, and it concludes sooner than later.
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Okay, but tariffs bring with it inflation. Typically that means higher interest rates. So I’m not sure if that’s really a smart plan.
 
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Habs said:
People are going to look back in a year at these prices and wish they had bought in. TSLA , INTEL, there are so many to be had on the cheap. Canadian equities however... going to be a rough year....
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Would love to have say your top 5 stocks to target. Any Canadian companies? Any ETFs?
 
Sold one third of my portfolio a month ago. Mostly VOO, QQQM, DIVO.
Kept JEPQ which gives me around 10% dividend.
Its a JPMorgan active ETF, trading ETF Call Options. Mostly NASDAQ stocks, but also stocks from other sectors like ABBV.
I bought more JEPQ on Friday and will keep buying even when the market goes down.

(mod)
 
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Habs said:
I’ll make some notes our firm has repositioned into many avenues lately
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I apologize, I wasn’t aware you were part of an investment firm. It’s all good, my question was informal, not meant to cross any lines.
 
Runner77 said:
I apologize, I wasn’t aware you were part of an investment firm. It’s all good, my question was informal, not meant to cross any lines.
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don't be silly , you haven't crossed any lines buddy. I have posted on here on personal moves and corporate moves, so its confusing. On the personal level i'm still doing a lot of covered calls and covered call funds. Things I am going full in I wouldn't put our clients in, but I have a high risk tolerance. For example I've been loading up on the Microstrategy covered call fund and MSTR stock, because personally I believe it will be multiples of where it is at now, a year down the road.

I have a US TFSA and run 3 covered call funds into it that generate monthly dividends, more than enough to cover any toy/car payments I have in the household.

As a company we are 80% out of the canadian equity market since Jan, waiting to see how the election goes. The funds we do buy are all 'decaf' funds , which are dollar cost averaging funds that are probably the only thing we will hold till mid/late summer.

Yes the US is probabling heading into a Recession, therefore we will be going through more pain :(

I've simplified things significantly, but that's my Cliff Notes :)
 
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