OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

waffledave

waffledave, from hf
Aug 22, 2004
33,747
16,689
Montreal
Newbie question but what makes you think NFT is not gambling? From a NFT producer (artist, etc...) or a NFT trading platforms, it adds a new revenue stream but I don't see it from an investor perspective.

Would you adequate NFTs to computer game skins (CS:S / Fornite / etc...) and it is based on bragging rights?

Not an easy question to answer, because to be honest, NFTs in general are so widespread in terms of usage, utility and potential profitability.

Are they gambling? I would say, they are as much gambling as buying stock in any risky/upstart business. The risk is very, very high. There is zero oversight, zero accountability, and you are basically putting your trust in a team who's identity is usually not known. They could disappear the next day, making the value of your investment zero.

But I think the big misconception about NFTs is that they're just trading images. There is a lot of emphasis put on the "art" aspect, which to me has little to no value.

Yes, sometimes it is just bragging rights. If you look at the biggest value NFTs - CryptoPunks (one just sold for $20,000,000 a few days ago) or Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) - these are essentially bragging rights based NFTs. It's not about owning the art, it's about being part of the club.

But there are only a handful of projects that can realistically create this kind of value. With BAYC, it's heavily centered around the brand. You are buying into, and investing in a brand. But the space is super saturated, especially across different blockchain networks. So there is not much space for this level of uber-elite exclusivity.

If you want to make money with NFTs, it ends up being more about utility. What value does the NFT provide for me? I have not made any significant money with art-based or low-utlity based projects. Everything I have made bank on has been passive income producing, or tied to some kind of asset. Almost always tied to DeFi in some way.

For example:
- NFT that grants me a "share" of a company like genesysgo. They sell the NFTs to raise capital for the venture, and owning one gives you a piece, much like owning a share of a business. What's cool is this is all programmed into the smart contracts that drive the NFT technology. My NFT receives automatic benefits that are hard-coded into the smart contract. GenesysGo raised $52,000,000 in their IDO for their $SHDW coin. Holders of their NFT get automatic disbursements of the coin throughout the year, which is programmed into the contract. Holders also get voting rights on the direction of the business, similar to a share.

- Gaming NFTs. Gamified finance is huge in crypto, and NFTs are fantastic for this. I own several projects where the NFT I own (which is unique) is my in-game character. In this sense, yes it is a skin, but the smart contracts behind it allow me to receive profit share from the game, and additional benefits like staking for their token.

- This is a wild example, but I own an NFT that gives me daily payouts (again, automatically built into the contract) from an online crypto casino. There is a percentage of the daily transaction fees collected from the casino operations that I get in my wallet every day.

- Virtual real estate. This might seem absolutely nuts, and admittedly we are far off from real life applications of this, but it's the kind of thing where being a first mover can be insanely profitable. Yes, virtual real estate is a thing. Owning a plot of land, or a building, in the metaverse. It has basically zero useful applications for the time being, but they are quickly being developed, and there is INSANE money behind it. Crazy levels of VC funding. Because, as VR becomes more and more of a thing, the infrastructure needed to build these immersive, connected worlds - in a decentralized way - needs to be built. There are already large corporations buying virtual real estate because they can sell their products through these worlds. It's very hard to grasp conceptually but ultimately it's because we are shifting from web2 to web3, which is a very different approach to how we do things on the internet. It will take some getting used to.

But honestly, the coolest thing for me when it comes to NFTs is that this scene is literally the frontier of the future of the web. As a dev this is such a cool space to be part of. The applications of a decentralized way to verify ownership of an asset are limitless. Imagine being able to sit in your house, go on your phone and buy/sell real estate. You can do this with NFTs. It's already being done - there is an NFT project coming out soon where the NFT itself gives you the leasing rights to a plot of land in the Bahamas. Escrow companies are being set up to drive this sort of technology (I have invested in these kinds of businesses as well through their capital-raising NFTs). The technology behind the smart contracts also allows for the asset to be fractionalized, so you can own 1/1000th of a real estate asset by owning an NFT, and be able to easily buy/sell at a moment's notice. You retain a voting right into the direction and decisions made regarding the asset via a decentralized autonomous organization - all automated through the smart contracts.

All the technology, innovation and infrastructure building needed to create this sort of thing is happening in the NFT space. There is huge value in the technology that runs NFTs, way more-so than the actual individual NFTs themselves. Being in the space and learning, or building, is invaluable. It's a fast-moving first-mover space where anyone can strike gold.

All this being said, there are scams every day. It's the riskiest thing I have ever been a part of. No recourse if you are scammed. You need to be vigilant. Justice is primarily vigilante based.

I have a great story about this... There is an individual, who's identity is unknown, who has been a notorious scammer in the NFT space. He/she is a master marketer and a wizard at building hype. The MO is basically to great huge hype for a project, get everyone to go nuts over it by making promises for future applications, brand building and utility... Then sell out (for a cool $2-$3 million), collect another million in royalties on after market sales. After a few days? They delete all social medias, take the money and run. Project is now worthless since there is no team behind it anymore.

They have been doing this repeatedly, and recently after their biggest heist yet, admitted they were behind several other high-profile rug-pulls, and laughed at everyone calling them suckers. Well... in crypto, everything is traceable. It's hard to hide from the transparency. This individual took the money from their latest scam, and bough several high profile NFTs, maybe $2 million USD worth. They slipped up in their attempt to hide where the money came from (contrary to what people think, it is hard to hide or launder money in the crypto space when faced with a forensic crypto specialist). The project owners of the high-profile NFTs he bought all got together and agreed to change the metadata on his purchases so that they all had 98% royalties built in. This means if he ever tried to re-sell them, he would get 0 (there is a 2% trading fee for most platforms). In other words, his $2 million he spent is now gone. Vigilante justice.
 
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zx81

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
22,030
15,218
It's a fast-moving first-mover space where anyone can strike gold.

You mean like a Ponzi scheme ?
The whole thing is a scam based on wash trading to inflate the prices.
I'm sure you can still make money right now but it won't last. The bubble will burst.
 
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waffledave

waffledave, from hf
Aug 22, 2004
33,747
16,689
Montreal
You mean like a Ponzi scheme ?
The whole thing is a scam based on wash trading to inflate the prices.
I'm sure you can still make money right now but it won't last. The bubble will burst.

There are definitely many ponzis in the space. Wash trading happens sometimes but everyone knows which projects are wash trading. You can't hide shit in this space. Don't think you really read everything I wrote because a company like GenesysGo is a legit enterprise, it's not a ponzi and there's no wash trading there.

I own a gaming NFT being built by a legitimate gaming studio that was bought out for $6 million by the biggest eSports company in Sweden.

You are ignoring the real value being created here.

I have made 7 figures already in this space. Realized profit, not tied up in illiquid assets.
 
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luthar

Registered User
Nov 29, 2011
1,307
191
Mtl
Not an easy question to answer, because to be honest, NFTs in general are so widespread in terms of usage, utility and potential profitability.

Are they gambling? I would say, they are as much gambling as buying stock in any risky/upstart business. The risk is very, very high. There is zero oversight, zero accountability, and you are basically putting your trust in a team who's identity is usually not known. They could disappear the next day, making the value of your investment zero.

But I think the big misconception about NFTs is that they're just trading images. There is a lot of emphasis put on the "art" aspect, which to me has little to no value.

Yes, sometimes it is just bragging rights. If you look at the biggest value NFTs - CryptoPunks (one just sold for $20,000,000 a few days ago) or Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) - these are essentially bragging rights based NFTs. It's not about owning the art, it's about being part of the club.

But there are only a handful of projects that can realistically create this kind of value. With BAYC, it's heavily centered around the brand. You are buying into, and investing in a brand. But the space is super saturated, especially across different blockchain networks. So there is not much space for this level of uber-elite exclusivity.

If you want to make money with NFTs, it ends up being more about utility. What value does the NFT provide for me? I have not made any significant money with art-based or low-utlity based projects. Everything I have made bank on has been passive income producing, or tied to some kind of asset. Almost always tied to DeFi in some way.

For example:
- NFT that grants me a "share" of a company like genesysgo. They sell the NFTs to raise capital for the venture, and owning one gives you a piece, much like owning a share of a business. What's cool is this is all programmed into the smart contracts that drive the NFT technology. My NFT receives automatic benefits that are hard-coded into the smart contract. GenesysGo raised $52,000,000 in their IDO for their $SHDW coin. Holders of their NFT get automatic disbursements of the coin throughout the year, which is programmed into the contract. Holders also get voting rights on the direction of the business, similar to a share.

- Gaming NFTs. Gamified finance is huge in crypto, and NFTs are fantastic for this. I own several projects where the NFT I own (which is unique) is my in-game character. In this sense, yes it is a skin, but the smart contracts behind it allow me to receive profit share from the game, and additional benefits like staking for their token.

- This is a wild example, but I own an NFT that gives me daily payouts (again, automatically built into the contract) from an online crypto casino. There is a percentage of the daily transaction fees collected from the casino operations that I get in my wallet every day.

- Virtual real estate. This might seem absolutely nuts, and admittedly we are far off from real life applications of this, but it's the kind of thing where being a first mover can be insanely profitable. Yes, virtual real estate is a thing. Owning a plot of land, or a building, in the metaverse. It has basically zero useful applications for the time being, but they are quickly being developed, and there is INSANE money behind it. Crazy levels of VC funding. Because, as VR becomes more and more of a thing, the infrastructure needed to build these immersive, connected worlds - in a decentralized way - needs to be built. There are already large corporations buying virtual real estate because they can sell their products through these worlds. It's very hard to grasp conceptually but ultimately it's because we are shifting from web2 to web3, which is a very different approach to how we do things on the internet. It will take some getting used to.

But honestly, the coolest thing for me when it comes to NFTs is that this scene is literally the frontier of the future of the web. As a dev this is such a cool space to be part of. The applications of a decentralized way to verify ownership of an asset are limitless. Imagine being able to sit in your house, go on your phone and buy/sell real estate. You can do this with NFTs. It's already being done - there is an NFT project coming out soon where the NFT itself gives you the leasing rights to a plot of land in the Bahamas. Escrow companies are being set up to drive this sort of technology (I have invested in these kinds of businesses as well through their capital-raising NFTs). The technology behind the smart contracts also allows for the asset to be fractionalized, so you can own 1/1000th of a real estate asset by owning an NFT, and be able to easily buy/sell at a moment's notice. You retain a voting right into the direction and decisions made regarding the asset via a decentralized autonomous organization - all automated through the smart contracts.

All the technology, innovation and infrastructure building needed to create this sort of thing is happening in the NFT space. There is huge value in the technology that runs NFTs, way more-so than the actual individual NFTs themselves. Being in the space and learning, or building, is invaluable. It's a fast-moving first-mover space where anyone can strike gold.

All this being said, there are scams every day. It's the riskiest thing I have ever been a part of. No recourse if you are scammed. You need to be vigilant. Justice is primarily vigilante based.

I have a great story about this... There is an individual, who's identity is unknown, who has been a notorious scammer in the NFT space. He/she is a master marketer and a wizard at building hype. The MO is basically to great huge hype for a project, get everyone to go nuts over it by making promises for future applications, brand building and utility... Then sell out (for a cool $2-$3 million), collect another million in royalties on after market sales. After a few days? They delete all social medias, take the money and run. Project is now worthless since there is no team behind it anymore.

They have been doing this repeatedly, and recently after their biggest heist yet, admitted they were behind several other high-profile rug-pulls, and laughed at everyone calling them suckers. Well... in crypto, everything is traceable. It's hard to hide from the transparency. This individual took the money from their latest scam, and bough several high profile NFTs, maybe $2 million USD worth. They slipped up in their attempt to hide where the money came from (contrary to what people think, it is hard to hide or launder money in the crypto space when faced with a forensic crypto specialist). The project owners of the high-profile NFTs he bought all got together and agreed to change the metadata on his purchases so that they all had 98% royalties built in. This means if he ever tried to re-sell them, he would get 0 (there is a 2% trading fee for most platforms). In other words, his $2 million he spent is now gone. Vigilante justice.

Thank you for taking a lot of time putting this all together. It really is insightful as I only looked at the *art* part.
What scares the hell out of me is the lack of regulation in this market. I have seen the power of money over values in people and I don't trust. ;)

The concepts are good and have great potential!

As for the vigilante part, like you said it's the wild wild west and we saw what a group of enthusiasm can do (cf: Gamestop)
 

QuebecPride

Registered User
May 4, 2010
8,017
2,449
Sherbrooke, Québec
Thank you for taking a lot of time putting this all together. It really is insightful as I only looked at the *art* part.
What scares the hell out of me is the lack of regulation in this market. I have seen the power of money over values in people and I don't trust. ;)

The concepts are good and have great potential!

As for the vigilante part, like you said it's the wild wild west and we saw what a group of enthusiasm can do (cf: Gamestop)

If I may, don't putanything that you can't afford to lose in NFTs/crypto.

Dave having worked in Finance and now being a programmer knows a bit more than most of us about what he's getting into. Personally I just dip my toes in cryptos, and only in ETFs.

No metamask for me.
 
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luthar

Registered User
Nov 29, 2011
1,307
191
Mtl
If I may, don't putting anything that you can't afford to lose in NFTs/crypto.

Dave having worked in Finance and now being a programmer knows a bit more than most of about what he's getting into. Personally I just dip my toes in cryptos, and only in ETFs.

No metamask for me.
Thanks for the heads up! I'm looking more at the value creation involved in this space. As for the technology part, I'm more than confident at understanding it :D
 

QuebecPride

Registered User
May 4, 2010
8,017
2,449
Sherbrooke, Québec
Thanks for the heads up! I'm looking more at the value creation involved in this space. As for the technology part, I'm more than confident at understanding it :D

Right now it's pretty much just speculation, no real value created. Just people who made a bunch of money with their crypto and playing with it in various projects. Big money can be made (Kudos to Dave), but it's in the speculative stage.

I can see a future for video games having their currency as a crypto. But trading in that space is really expensive if you don't have crypto to begin with.

One thing I might hop in is getting a crypto to get exclusive stuff from Podcasters and whatnot. I believe Animal Spirits will start one, I'll probably get into that.

But no opensea, no topshot.
 

HuGort

Registered User
Jun 15, 2012
21,659
10,646
Nova Scotia
I know one thing, this is last bear market I am going thru. I knew interest rate hikes were coming. Back around Christmas time but chose not to sell. I said well it will come back and takes quite a bit for me to sell all those stocks. But I 100% should have.

Get in a bear market then something else goes wrong could go into super bear market. I have bad feeling about this war. It keeps looking worse day to day. Many countries in the world are against Russia. Putin you can never tell what he will do.
 

RC51

Registered User
Dec 10, 2005
4,952
809
mtl
I hate to bring this up, but sometimes things just come back to bite you.
For 10 years the US stalled on the ok for a pipeline from Alberta down to the gulf. And then allowed fracking , for US co.s to go nuts. So right now the price of gas in the US and the Ruskies making billions allowing Putin to think he can now get away with anything, It's hard to admit wow did I make a mistake by forcing Alberta out of the US pipeline thing. Canada has more oil then Russia and we are right next door. I wonder what the US is thinking behind closed doors right about now.
 
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QuebecPride

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May 4, 2010
8,017
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Sherbrooke, Québec
I hate to bring this up, but sometimes things just come back to bite you.
For 10 years the US stalled on the ok for a pipeline from Alberta down to the gulf. And then allowed fracking , for US co.s to go nuts. So right now the price of gas in the US and the Ruskies making billions allowing Putin to think he can now get away with anything, It's hard to admit wow did I make a mistake by forcing Alberta out of the US pipeline thing. Canada has more oil then Russia and we are right next door. I wonder what the US is thinking behind closed doors right about now.

The Russians are having an ecomonic meltdown due to the measures. The rise of the price of gas only slightly mitigates it, even though it's a good chunk of their economy.

The ones making a fortune right now are oil producers not involved in the war, ie Canadian/UK/USA/Norway/Middle East/Latin American oil companies.
 

HuGort

Registered User
Jun 15, 2012
21,659
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Nova Scotia
I wish I was sitting on all cash. I've lost so much I can't sell now. This war I have bad vibes about. Putin I get feel gone insane. But he is control nuclear weapons. It could get much worse.
 

QuebecPride

Registered User
May 4, 2010
8,017
2,449
Sherbrooke, Québec
I wish I was sitting on all cash. I've lost so much I can't sell now. This war I have bad vibes about. Putin I get feel gone insane. But he is control nuclear weapons. It could get much worse.

Hindsight is 20/20, but that probably means that you were too risky to your liking in your investments. You just didn't know because they kept going up. But yeah.
 

danyhabsfan

Registered User
Feb 12, 2007
8,231
3,052
Montreal
I don't do a lot of suggestion but if you are into OTC stock I would suggest to buy ASTA.

it's on the expert market right now and only canadian can buy (new rule since sept 2021, most US citizen can only buy pink stock) until it turns pink in the next couple months and you'll get a 10 x return.

Sitting at 0.0025 USD so if you buy 1M shares and this get to 1$ you're a millionnaire...but seriously 0.10 is realistic.
 

DenverHabsFan

Registered User
Sep 9, 2011
1,943
121
Highlands Ranch, CO
I hate to bring this up, but sometimes things just come back to bite you.
For 10 years the US stalled on the ok for a pipeline from Alberta down to the gulf. And then allowed fracking , for US co.s to go nuts. So right now the price of gas in the US and the Ruskies making billions allowing Putin to think he can now get away with anything, It's hard to admit wow did I make a mistake by forcing Alberta out of the US pipeline thing. Canada has more oil then Russia and we are right next door. I wonder what the US is thinking behind closed doors right about now.

Pretty sure I didn't hear that argument yet in the US. Basically enabling an open sewer in Alberta and carry the most corrosive and therefore leak-prone form of crude down a pipeline through pristine lands all the way to Texas is not appealing to a lot of Americans.

The lesson that should be learned is that oil should stay in the ground. We should have moved to alternatives, including rolling back the use of plastics for stuff that decades ago was packaged in paper or glass. Oil is just enabling dictators all over the world.
 
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HuGort

Registered User
Jun 15, 2012
21,659
10,646
Nova Scotia
Hindsight is 20/20, but that probably means that you were too risky to your liking in your investments. You just didn't know because they kept going up. But yeah.
In a bear market. Decent chance it is going to get much worse. Putin could throw world into some type of war. That's worst case scenario. Best case is oil spikes for a few years. Which generally had crippled the economy in past
 

QuebecPride

Registered User
May 4, 2010
8,017
2,449
Sherbrooke, Québec
In a bear market. Decent chance it is going to get much worse. Putin could throw world into some type of war. That's worst case scenario. Best case is oil spikes for a few years. Which generally had crippled the economy in past

Markets will be fine, 50% of the markets are in the USA. And there's no one invading the USA any time soon. If you need the money right now, then yeah, you have to take it on the chin. But for me that's 30 years old and still in the accumulation phase, it's a huge boon that the markets go down, I got a decent rebate on my contributions.
 

HuGort

Registered User
Jun 15, 2012
21,659
10,646
Nova Scotia
Markets will be fine, 50% of the markets are in the USA. And there's no one invading the USA any time soon. If you need the money right now, then yeah, you have to take it on the chin. But for me that's 30 years old and still in the accumulation phase, it's a huge boon that the markets go down, I got a decent rebate on my contributions.
Long term we be okay. But i think we could see major recession. Gas prices jumped .18 cents a liter in last 2 days here. Diesel more than that. Heating oil jumped too but I have electric heat so not so sure on that. If these prices sustain long term could be a recession.
 

LeHab

Registered User
Aug 31, 2005
15,991
6,286
Long term we be okay. But i think we could see major recession. Gas prices jumped .18 cents a liter in last 2 days here. Diesel more than that. Heating oil jumped too but I have electric heat so not so sure on that. If these prices sustain long term could be a recession.

EU is especially at risk, some even talk about risks of stagflation there if sanctions and war lasts. Central Banks have been dovish for too long and now have no or little margin to lower rates if a boost is needed.

ECB's Centeno warns of 'stagflation' from Russia-Ukraine conflict
 

LeHab

Registered User
Aug 31, 2005
15,991
6,286
Lower rates? They can’t get any lower.

That is what I'm saying, if a recession is looming there is no margin to lower rates like they normally would. Quantitative Easing may be back on the table as if enough money was not already printed in the past 2 years.

Inflation is generally better than Recession but stagflation is the worst outcome.
 

BehindTheTimes

Registered User
Jun 24, 2018
7,490
10,349
That is what I'm saying, if a recession is looming there is no margin to lower rates like they normally would. Quantitative Easing may be back on the table as if enough money was not already printed in the past 2 years.

Inflation is generally better than Recession but stagflation is the worst outcome.
Sorry I misread your post. I think we are entering unprecedented times tbh. I don’t know how long the can be kicked or economic catastrophe can be avoided, but I think the worst is yet to come. I think it will get real ugly sometime in the next 12-24 months, regardless of the war.
 

montreal

Go Habs Go
Mar 21, 2002
58,889
44,605
www.youtube.com
I picked up some shares on Friday, only a small amount but finaly got some NVDA (just 10 shares for now, will buy another 10 if it drops a bit, then another 10 and another and another if need be). Got a little tech and trimmed my OXY as i got it at a great price (wish I had bought more though) but since it's been on a tear and I still have SLB and COP doing so well I thought I would trim 25% off a nice gain.
 

Intangir

Registered User
Aug 14, 2008
1,847
2,240
Montreal, QC
One of my friends, who's heavily invested in the stock market (calls himself a small-time stock expert, I always squint at him ala Clint Eastwood when he says that), pressured / strongly advised me to buy some AA earlier this week. As the stoic and hopelessly stubborn man that I am I of course easily caved-in and bought AA at 81.90 dollars or so per share.

I bought 100 shares since he was being so insistent, but I didn't want to put too much money in because I heavily suspect anyone that calls himself an ''expert" without any credentials to be little more than a hack. And that friend has never been of the "reliable" sort, so let's just say my levels of confidence on that investment were not sky-high.

Long story short, the stock was sitting at 90.66 at close and I am now kicking myself for not trusting my now-reliable (?) friend more.

Since I'm basically a beginner at stocks I'll hold a bit, see where AA is headed, and then maybe sell sometime next week or a bit later. I am not risk-adverse per se, and I've got decent savings/safety net, but that 8-9 grand is still sizable money for me so I'd rather cash-in now and lose nothing instead of going at it with the intent to maximize returns.

As far as future investments go, I'm not ready to open the floodgates and trust in the financial advice of that friend that much more just yet (if ever I'll be honest, he's matured a lot over time but he was a giant mess back in college), but I'll be more receptive when I see him and he drones on forever about this stock or that.

Who knew having friends could actually enrich your life? Well, at least that's a first for me.
 
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