Post-Game Talk: Lessons not yet learned

[TheNumber4]

Why does Skinner never need to take accountability for the fact that in every game we lose, and the vast majority of the ones that we win, he's the worst goaltender on the ice?


No other Goaltender in the league gets as much latitude to lay utter eggs.

It's a statistical fact that we don't allow many scoring chances against and have very good expected goals against. Yet somehow Skinner STILL has SV% and GAA that place him in the lower quartile of 80s goaltending. Skinner's peers statistically are literally a bunch of rented mules Gretzky and Kurri used to score on for fun and Dan Cloutier. Literally he's several standard deviations below guys like Pickard and Silovs.

We're at 4.5 series of him being complete and utter garbage. You tell me - how many more games does he have to be the second best guy on the ice? How many more beach ball GWGAs does he have to let in while we're dominating the tied game in the third? When does it become his fault?

What’s accountability in the goaltending world? Sitting a game or two? Well he’s done that. It’s a tool in Knobs toolbox and he’s used it.

Would we sit him more if we had better options. Sure, but unfortunately Holland f***ed us with Campbell and he and a mostly equally unproven Picard is what we got.

If you are looking for me to blame him for bad goals against. No problem there. I do so immediately after every bad goal against in the GDTs, then I see coaches and skinner confirm that yes it was indeed a bad goal against as they also blame the exact goal. But there’s a nuance to this cause there is also blame to go around. No one is going to convince me Nurse hasn’t caused many direct and indirect goals against these playoffs that fall squarely on Nurses head. Sometimes it’s on Skinner; sometimes it’s on others, sometimes it’s shared. I’m just trying to be accurate here.

His numbers aren’t pretty, partly because he really isn’t an elite goalie (I’ve never said he was), and partly because our D has failed him in egregious ways, and also partly cause Vancouver truly is a low volume, high shooting % team and that had an effect to deflate his numbers. They were that in the regular season and they were that in the post season (check the numbers). So there’s things that go into his subpar numbers too.

We’ve won 2 series with Skinner/Picard backstopping, we are in a tight series with maybe the best team in the League. So IMO we are a team that can still win with the cheap goaltending carousel that we are employing. So far anyways, we’re in the “good enough”category for that goaltending strategy. Would I like for us to have Sheshterkin back there? Sure. But it’s the NHL and it’s a lot to ask for the two best players and also the best goalie on one team. This is the team build we have, this is the team we should support for better or for worse. We can’t change any of this shit anyways.

 

[iCanada]

Meanwhile - Gretzky roasting us on national television.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1795294136058208618

We deserve it a little bit. I do wonder how much the narrative changes though if you swap the two Goaltenders. The difference between bending and not breaking and choking is Oettinger at .900 and Skinner at .810.

Meanwhile scoring chances are tilted in our favour, expected goals are tilted in our favour, possession time is tilted in our favour, high danger chances tilted in our favour... Only thing not tilted in our favour is Dan Cloutier style beach ball fiestas.

 

[RegDunlop]

At least he can hang his hat on having good playoff stats rather than having stats as bad as Cloutier.

Skinner is also a headcase, it's just less noticeable because of his arrogant façade. I mean, the guy admitted he battled anxiety "in the past"

I guess.
First with Campbell I've seen some absolutely amazing games from him. I don't hate him or anything. Truly I think he has to be the farthest spread I've seen between his good and bad play. Amazing.
With Skinner, I'm a fan but don't think he's this special next Vezina winner. In fact I'd give him 1a/1b duties next year then fish or cut bait.

 

[Oilhawks]

Meanwhile - Gretzky roasting us on national television.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1795294136058208618

We deserve it a little bit. I do wonder how much the narrative changes though if you swap the two Goaltenders. The difference between bending and not breaking and choking is Oettinger at .900 and Skinner at .810.

Meanwhile scoring chances are tilted in our favour, expected goals are tilted in our favour, possession time is tilted in our favour, high danger chances tilted in our favour... Only thing not tilted in our favour is Dan Cloutier style beach ball fiestas.

Gretzky can f*** himself (as a commentator/ critic). He’s cheered against this team since boosting the fLames in 2022. Honestly feels like he soured on them ever since he got cut off from unlimited red wine IYKYK

But yes, if this team had an Oettinger instead, they would have a Cup already

 

[RegDunlop]

Sure does, and Skinner made some great saves. But the Stars also scored 3 in those 17 shots, even if they weren't Skinner's fault. The difference is Ott made saves when he needed to when the Oilers were pouring it on, two games in a row now.

Skinner would get a lot more benefit of the doubt outside of his cheer club if he had some positive playoff history to back it up. He has among the worst playoff stats of a goalie all time, so he doesn't get much leeway.

Well
Have to concede
Can't argue the record. I just didn't see that game as being his to take on. I really think the players need to get their shit together.

Anyway thanks man.
I'll save it up for another day!

 

[iCanada]

What’s accountability in the goaltending world? Sitting a game or two? Well he’s done that. It’s a tool in Knobs toolbox and he’s used it.

Would we sit him more if we had better options. Sure, but unfortunately Holland f***ed us with Campbell and he and a mostly equally unproven Picard is what we got.

If you are looking for me to blame him for bad goals against. No problem there. I do so immediately after every bad goal against in the GDTs, then I see coaches and skinner confirm that yes it was indeed a bad goal against as they also blame the exact goal. But there’s a nuance to this cause there is also blame to go around. No one is going to convince me Nurse hasn’t caused many direct and indirect goals against these playoffs that fall squarely on Nurses head. Sometimes it’s on Skinner; sometimes it’s on others, sometimes it’s shared. I’m just trying to be accurate here.

His numbers aren’t pretty, partly because he really isn’t an elite goalie (I’ve never said he was), and partly because our D has failed him in egregious ways, and also partly cause Vancouver truly is a low volume, high shooting % team and that had an effect to deflate his numbers. They were that in the regular season and they were that in the post season (check the numbers). So there’s things that go into his subpar numbers too.

We’ve won 2 series with Skinner/Picard backstopping, we are in a tight series with maybe the best team in the League. So IMO we are team that can still win with the cheap goaltending carousel that we are employing. So far anyways, we’re in good enough category for that goaltending strategy.

Well I'll say this - it's statistically exceptionally improbable that Pickard doesn't give us a better chance to win than Skinner at this point.

Frankly Skinner's game tonight was unacceptable, so he should see some accountability, and Pickard should start on that basis.

And two - One guy is sorting a .915 and 2.21, the other is sorting a .884 and 3.17. Regardless of accountability - I feel like you go to the .915 and 2.21 well instead of the .884 and 3.17 well.

 

[TheNumber4]

Well I'll say this - it's statistically exceptionally improbable that Pickard doesn't give us a better chance to win than Skinner at this point.

Frankly Skinner's game tonight was unacceptable, so he should see some accountability, and Pickard should start on that basis.

And two - One guy is sorting a .915 and 2.21, the other is sorting a .884 and 3.17. Regardless of accountability - I feel like you go to the .915 and 2.21 well instead of the .884 and 3.17 well.

You say that. But then explain why Knob chose to go to Skinner in games 6 and 7 and game 1 leading to 3 straight victories. Pickards numbers were even better than Skinners back then than now.

Knob could have just looked at the numbers and made the call, well obviously Picard is better look at them numbers. But he didn’t. Why is that? For me, I looked at the goals that happened in Van game 5 and can see exactly why Knob wouldn’t be confident in Picard and decided to swap back to Skinner. He’s looking at goals against in detail moreso than the overall surface numbers. He’s digging deeper into why goals against happened. It’s why he also made the decision to sit SKinner after games 1-3 in Van. There it was case of not enough big saves, again I said that immediately after game 3 as well in the GDT.

I think Knobs decisions show that to determine which goalie to go with requires more than just a look at the surface numbers. You need to dig deeper, find the true reason a goal against happened and make your call based on that. When you do that your view will match up to decisions made by our coaching staff for the most part. Atleast I find that anyways which confirms to me to continue looking at it like I do.

 

[Oilhawks]

You say that. But then explain why Knob chose to go to Skinner in games 6 and 7 and game 1 leading to 3 straight victories. Pickards numbers were even better than Skinners back then than now.

Knob could have just looked at the numbers and made the call, well obviously Picard is better look at them numbers. But he didn’t. Why is that? For me, I looked at the goals that happened in Van game 5 and can see exactly why Knob wouldn’t be confident in Picard and decided to swap back to Skinner. He’s looking at goals against in detail moreso than the overall surface numbers. He’s digging deeper into why goals against happened. It’s why he also made the decision to sit SKinner after games 1-3 in Van. There it was case of not enough big saves, again I said that immediately after game 3 as well in the GDT.

I think Knobs decisions show that to determine which goalie to go with requires more than just a look at the surface numbers. You need to dig deeper, find the true reason a goal against happened and make your call based on that. When you do that your view will match up to decisions made by our coaching staff for the most part. Atleast I find that anyways which confirms to me to continue looking at it like I do.

I think it was simply “we have to give Skinner a rest” and after they lost game 5 it was easy to go back to the Skinner. I doubt they dove much deeper than that

If Skinner shits the bed again next game, Pickard might start game 5 if only to save Skinny from embarrassment

 

[MessierThanThou]

I think it was simply “we have to give Skinner a rest” and after they lost game 5 it was easy to go back to the Skinner. I doubt they dove much deeper than that

If Skinner shits the bed again next game, Pickard might start game 5 if only to save Skinny from embarrassment

Skinner shit the bed one time too many. Playing Picard now is the only option if we hope to stay in this series.

 

[TheNumber4]

I think it was simply “we have to give Skinner a rest” and after they lost game 5 it was easy to go back to the Skinner. I doubt they dove much deeper than that

If Skinner shits the bed again next game, Pickard might start game 5 if only to save Skinny from embarrassment

There is a valid theory that Stu needs rest and does well with rest. But If it was just Rest then they must have discounted Skinners subpar play in games 1-3. But we can hear from the post game presser in game 3 that knob realized that not enough big saves were being made. So while Skinner does need rest to be at his best, I really don’t think that was the main reason for sitting him after game 3. The lack of saves was the prime reason.

 

[NotASheep]

Close game. Skinner made some big saves and wasn't horrible. He's been much worse in other games. The Oilers defensive game was very spotty and terrible in the second.

Have you seen his save percentage from last night? .810 is not a good number

 

[iCanada]

You say that. But then explain why Knob chose to go to Skinner in games 6 and 7 and game 1 leading to 3 straight victories. Pickards numbers were even better than Skinners back then than now.

Knob could have just looked at the numbers and made the call, well obviously Picard is better look at them numbers. But he didn’t. Why is that? For me, I looked at the goals that happened in Van game 5 and can see exactly why Knob wouldn’t be confident in Picard and decided to swap back to Skinner. He’s looking at goals against in detail moreso than the overall surface numbers. He’s digging deeper into why goals against happened. It’s why he also made the decision to sit SKinner after games 1-3 in Van. There it was case of not enough big saves, again I said that immediately after game 3 as well in the GDT.

I think Knobs decisions show that to determine which goalie to go with requires more than just a look at the surface numbers. You need to dig deeper, find the true reason a goal against happened and make your call based on that. When you do that your view will match up to decisions made by our coaching staff for the most part. Atleast I find that anyways which confirms to me to continue looking at it like I do.

So, based on tonight's game, do you have any confidence that Skinner won't just let any old beach ball past?

Do you feel Skinner did enough to win? And if so, what would you call Oettinger's .900 sv% performance that included more high danger saves if not just clearly better than Skinner's performance? And if Skinner's performance is clearly worse, why are we not going with the guy that statistically is clearly better?

I'm all for the mechanistic approach if we're confident Skinner can make the big save when it counts. But shots in the third against were 13-2 for Edmonton. Goals were 1-0 for Dallas... And well, Dallas's goal is more likely to feature along side Patrik Stefan's missed empty net style lowlite reel than a true highlight reel. And the thing is... Skinner is always doing this shit.

Maybe let's take a look at last year:

 

[Oilhawks]

There is a valid theory that Stu needs rest and does well with rest. But If it was just Rest then they must have discounted Skinners subpar play in games 1-3. But we can hear from the post game presser in game 3 that knob realized that not enough big saves were being made. So while Skinner does need rest to be at his best, I really don’t think that was the main reason for sitting him after game 3. The lack of saves was the prime reason.

Well, lack of saves is an issue again, but I think Knob won't go back to that well again. So it'll be up to the team to outscore the goals let in by this circus sideshow.

 

[Daishi]

That last goal against on Skinner was brutal but the entire team played like garbage in the 2nd again and that’s what ultimately lost them the game

Rangers and Panthers sometimes have garbage periods too. Then their goalie bails them out

 

[TheNumber4]

So, based on tonight's game, do you have any confidence that Skinner won't just let any old beach ball past?

Do you feel Skinner did enough to win? And if so, what would you call Oettinger's .900 sv% performance that included more high danger saves if not just clearly better than Skinner's performance? And if Skinner's performance is clearly worse, why are we not going with the guy that statistically is clearly better?

I'm all for the mechanistic approach if we're confident Skinner can make the big save when it counts. But shots in the third against were 13-2 for Edmonton. Goals were 1-0 for Dallas... And well, Dallas's goal is more likely to feature along side Patrik Stefan's missed empty net style lowlite reel than a true highlight reel. And the thing is... Skinner is always doing this shit.

Maybe let's take a look at last year:

Tough call. He let in a bad goal 4 as noted. He also made some big saves as well, so the lack of big saves that had him pulled after GM 3 Van wasn’t there. But then the D did hang him out to dry on other goals.

I would take into account the rest theory (it’s now 5 games in a row for Skinner and his focus may be fading again) and I would take a second look at the video to ultimately come up with my call. Knob will do the same, he never makes that call right after a loss.

Could we have won with Skinners lacklustre performance tonight? Considering it was a 1 goal game, and we generated nothing great on our PP and at 5s for nearly half the game or more. Yes we could have won this game in many other ways. Maybe one less brain fart from the D. Maybe one better shot from the offence. And yeh maybe if Robertson isn’t left alone on a turnover to find that hole for goal 4M or if Skinner stayed square and didn’t let that hole be exposed.

I would call Otters performance as better than Skinner. But that’s something we can’t control, we are left with the choice of Skinner or Picard. Tomorrow I’ll get a chance to do a rewatch and I’ll let you know. My guess right now is that Knob will consider the defensive mistakes, the big saves, and the bad goal to give Skinner another shot at it.

 

[Sheikyerbouti]

I’ve already said the goal 4 was a bad one and blame Skinner. So no need to take the L on that one. I agree.

But the turnover leading to a 2 on 1 down low was a breakdown leaving Robertson with time and space, still I blame Skinner for not focusing on the shooter and letting his D focus on the slot receiver. But it’s still a breakdown by our D with also a breakdown by Skinner. More than one culprit can be blamed on a goal against.

And right before that we let a stars player have a free lane to the front of the net and skinner made a great save. lol

Its a bad goal for sure but if you allow two clear looks within a foot to start a period you are playing with fire. We had chains of breakdowns where dmen had to pick a player tonight because the forwards were behind the play

People are burnt on skinner and I get it, but there are way way bigger issues. Let's be pissed this cup or bust leadership group hit cruise after 20 mins in the semifinals lol.

 

[TheNumber4]

Well, lack of saves is an issue again, but I think Knob won't go back to that well again. So it'll be up to the team to outscore the goals let in by this circus sideshow.

He made some big saves tonight (Duchene, Wyatt x2). We gave up more tonight than in game 3 Van. But the 3 egregious mistakes in Van all went in and you need atleast one of those 3 saved. Tonight skinner did make some big saves, along with the bad goal, along with not covering for enough mistakes of our D. Full picture I think Knob goes back to Skinner in game 4 and the Oilers focus on cleaning up the mistakes, and not sitting back for half the game.

 

[sepHF]

Rangers and Panthers sometimes have garbage periods too. Then their goalie bails them out

Bobrovsky makes 4x Skinners salary and Shesterkin makes over double. They're better goalies no doubt

 

[TheNumber4]

And right before that we let a stars player have a free lane to the front of the net and skinner made a great save. lol

Its a bad goal for sure but if you allow two clear looks within a foot to start a period you are playing with fire. We had chains of breakdowns where dmen were having to pick a player tonight because the forwards were behind the play

People are burnt on skinner and I get it, but there are way way bigger issues. Let's be pissed this cup or bust leadership group hit cruise after 20 mins in the semifinals lol.

Yeh Duchene walked our D and was in alone on Skinner. Needed a save there and got it.

And yeh it was bad goal too.

Listening to McD post game, he said that the stars stretched them out and then they felt disconnected as a team. It really did seem that way as the 2 Defenceman weren’t close enough to our 3 forwards on a lot of attempts at defense. That is an issue and a strategy that Deboer is using that we need to figure out. Along with cleaning up our defensive mistakes. If we had done that this game, who knows how it swings, it was a 1 goal differential.

 

[Daishi]

So the stars are a bad team?


What about the Rangers? What about the Panthers? Guess you didn't watch the game yesterday, huh?

Right on the money. All of these teams make defensive lapses and play bad for entire periods. They just get goaltending.

Nobody is asking for shutouts game after game. Just be at least average and sometimes save little more than is expected. Pickard isn't a top goalie but he's better than Skinner by every metric. And they are both light years behind Shesty, Ottinger and Bob. Statistically and by eye test.

 

[Ibanez]

And right before that we let a stars player have a free lane to the front of the net and skinner made a great save. lol

Its a bad goal for sure but if you allow two clear looks within a foot to start a period you are playing with fire. We had chains of breakdowns where dmen had to pick a player tonight because the forwards were behind the play

People are burnt on skinner and I get it, but there are way way bigger issues. Let's be pissed this cup or bust leadership group hit cruise after 20 mins in the semifinals lol.

Lots of problems to go around. Skinner is one. Leadership group is another (first line was terrible in our end, nuge back to being meh), and the giant pile of crap that is ceci/nurse

 

[M Ace]

The team lost the game. The way they played in the second is unacceptable and with the game tied in the 3rd they once again didn’t score. 0-4 now in the playoffs when tied going into the 3rd. At this stage in the playoffs especially. Connor even said they took their foot off the gas and that’s extremely concerning. How is that even a thing this time of year? After all they went through against Vancouver?

All our third period heroics in the regular have been non existent. We suck in the 3rd.

not a single team left has been dominated that bad for 15 minutes. Not one I’ve watched a ton of other series. That was the worst stretch of hockey by any team this playoffs.

First and foremost;
Bad coaching and bad leadership.
Not even prime Roy/Brodeur/Hasek would get this team over the top sadly.
It's in their heads.
Crosby/Malkin, Datsyuk/Zetterberg, Toews/Kane, Stamkos/Kucherov, MacKinnon/Makar to name a few, never let the team down during their cup runs like McDavid/Draisaitl does.

Every setback makes them wanna go home and cry.
These are the guys who needs to step up in the locker room to begin with and then lead by example on the ice. Make a hit, go for a scramble, yell att the ref, tell the coach to leave the locker room etc, etc.

 

[M Ace]

So, based on tonight's game, do you have any confidence that Skinner won't just let any old beach ball past?

Do you feel Skinner did enough to win? And if so, what would you call Oettinger's .900 sv% performance that included more high danger saves if not just clearly better than Skinner's performance? And if Skinner's performance is clearly worse, why are we not going with the guy that statistically is clearly better?

I'm all for the mechanistic approach if we're confident Skinner can make the big save when it counts. But shots in the third against were 13-2 for Edmonton. Goals were 1-0 for Dallas... And well, Dallas's goal is more likely to feature along side Patrik Stefan's missed empty net style lowlite reel than a true highlight reel. And the thing is... Skinner is always doing this shit.

Maybe let's take a look at last year:

What?!?!

Nurse on the ice for a goal against......

Why do this Skinner saga take me back to the Devan Dubnyk days....?

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

So, based on tonight's game, do you have any confidence that Skinner won't just let any old beach ball past?

Do you feel Skinner did enough to win? And if so, what would you call Oettinger's .900 sv% performance that included more high danger saves if not just clearly better than Skinner's performance? And if Skinner's performance is clearly worse, why are we not going with the guy that statistically is clearly better?

I'm all for the mechanistic approach if we're confident Skinner can make the big save when it counts. But shots in the third against were 13-2 for Edmonton. Goals were 1-0 for Dallas... And well, Dallas's goal is more likely to feature along side Patrik Stefan's missed empty net style lowlite reel than a true highlight reel. And the thing is... Skinner is always doing this shit.

Maybe let's take a look at last year:

Bad example. There's 5 Oilers flooded to the goaltender's right side. On this year's team there's actual weak side support of 1 or 2 players to clear the loose change away and help their goaltender.

Now I'll agree Skinner was horseshit on the winning goal tonight. He also let too many rebounds float around to keep pucks alive. He has wild swings within games where he can make good saves but he just rarely, rarely makes the critical save like the game winner. There were also a ton of shitty team defending tonight with Nugent Hopkins, Desharnais failing to clear defensive zone opportunities which funnelled back into goals against. Top pair weren't especially good in their own zone coverage. And glaringly Nurse is a liability getting knocked off pucks, undisciplined in his own zone coverage, and just generally lost out there.

Skinner's just not good enough. Not innately athletic enough he's often awkward looking, erratic balance at times, and challenged to move laterally. He was a mid-level prospect that's had to step into #1 duty instead of a longer 2-3 year slow cook growth and realistic development as a #2 on a Cup chasing team. But also tonight, there wasn't a lot of help with piss poor team defending to help protect their weak link. Not a good combination against a team as good as Dallas and with a far better and more consistent goaltender. Raiser fine line for Edmonton to succeed with their goaltending and average defense.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Skinner's just not good enough. Not innately athletic enough he's often awkward looking, erratic balance at times, and challenged to move laterally. He was a mid-level prospect that's had to step into #1 duty instead of a longer 2-3 year slow cook growth and realistic development as a #2 on a Cup chasing team. But also tonight, there wasn't a lot of help with piss poor team defending to help protect their weak link. Not a good combination against a team as good as Dallas and with a far better and more consistent goaltender. Raiser fine line for Edmonton to succeed with their goaltending and average defense.

This is exactly it. Skinner was a middling prospect. His ceiling was always as a number 2 goalie and that's exactly what he is. Not a 1b. A number 2, not an NHL starter, and especially not a playoff starter.