Leon Draisatl - time to prove?

[Ctrain2k]

No deal. How do we even know this McDavid guy is the real deal? He’s clearly a product of the German God known as Leon.

Doesn’t look like we can get a deal done, we’re just too far away on the price. But at least we can agree on that McDavid guy not proving himself, that German Stallion is carrying him by his jock strap.

 

[4EDM14OIL93]

I have used the eye test for Draisaitl many times. He's a really good player who hasn't generally succeeded at center at 5-on-5 in my view.

If the eye test actually is quite useful, why are his 5-on-5 results away from McDavid (at the macro level, not over any one game) so much worse than what Oilers fans say they are?

This goes back to our previous discussion, when you put him on a line with Alex Chiasson the points are going to suffer a bit. Give him some quality non-McDavid line mates like they have this year and he puts up elite numbers.

He is 2nd in the league with 52 even strength points in 56 games. Almost 1 ES PPG. Is that not good enough for you?

 

[Mac Attack]

12 full pages of pent up Oiler rage unleashed and counting. There have been some pretty good quips in here.

 

[Connor McConnor]

I am seriously impressed by how many of you are making such passionate, emotional arguments against things that I have never said.

In the past year alone you’ve said John Carlson isn’t a 1D and Draisatl isn’t a 1C, or even an elite player because in your words “his stats away from McDavid say he’s a good but not great player who can’t carry his own line”. I won’t respond to you after this one because honestly I’ve gotten my joy already. You’re the Skip Bayless sort of ignorance guy.

 

[Deen]

McDavid is holding Drai back.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

My criticism of Draisaitl has always been specifically with regards to his 5-on-5 play in his minutes without McDavid, and his defensive play. In tonight's game, at 5-on-5, Draisaitl scored 1 secondary assist, and his line was below 50% in shot and expected goal shares. Making significant changes to ones' opinion based on the results of one game is never a good idea, but I fail to see how this one game would have changed my opinion anyways.

Draisaitl was dominant 5-on-5 today.

Maybe if you didn't watch the game on a spreadsheet you would know that.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

This goes back to our previous discussion, when you put him on a line with Alex Chiasson the points are going to suffer a bit. Give him some quality non-McDavid line mates like they have this year and he puts up elite numbers.

He is 2nd in the league with 52 even strength points in 56 games. Almost 1 ES PPG. Is that not good enough for you?

His 5-on-5 scoring numbers without McDavid this year are indeed elite, but only if you place a very heavy value on secondary assists. His goal-scoring, primary assist, and primary point rates without him are not elite.

I don't know what "not good enough" for me is. I mean, what do you want me to say? What do you want to hear from me?

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

In the past year alone you’ve said John Carlson isn’t a 1D and Draisatl isn’t a 1C, or even an elite player because in your words “his stats away from McDavid say he’s a good but not great player who can’t carry his own line”. I won’t respond to you after this one because honestly I’ve gotten my joy already. You’re the Skip Bayless sort of ignorance guy.

Those sure don't look like my words, and I couldn't find them when I searched them on the forum. Can you show me where I said exactly that?

 

[Del Preston]

So because his team took the lead, he was no longer responsible for anything else that happened? None of it mattered after that?

Most teams who are leading by a goal in the third period of an important game tighten up and stop taking chances. Most teams who are losing by a goal in the third period of an important game throw everything at the net and take more chances. You didn't watch the game tonight. I can tell.

At this point you're either trolling or don't understand how the sport works.

No one has misrepresented your opinion in here. There are several posts (and an entire thread) from you of the same flawed/bad argument over and over. You post a bunch of numbers with zero context. "He can't do anything without McDavid", "he's not a 1C", "he drags down 3rd/4th liners", etc. You've posted all this stuff. When shown Draisaitl's numbers last season when McDavid was sick/suspended, the sample size was too small for you. Now he's leading the league in scoring and his line has been the hottest in hockey for 7 weeks and you're too ignorant and stubborn to say "oops, I was wrong".

 

[McNurse]

His 5-on-5 scoring numbers without McDavid this year are indeed elite, but only if you place a very heavy value on secondary assists. His goal-scoring, primary assist, and primary point rates without him are not elite.

I don't know what "not good enough" for me is. I mean, what do you want me to say? What do you want to hear from me?

So what you’re saying is, secondary assists mean nothing?

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

@JoeThorntonsRooster

Have you ever played hockey? Like actual ice hockey on a team?

Do you think it would be more effective to evaluate you and your teammates by watching them play or by analyzing spreadsheets?

 

[Isaak16]

His 5-on-5 scoring numbers without McDavid this year are indeed elite, but only if you place a very heavy value on secondary assists. His goal-scoring, primary assist, and primary point rates without him are not elite.

I don't know what "not good enough" for me is. I mean, what do you want me to say? What do you want to hear from me?

Just give it a rest

 

[Khomutov]

He is monster.

 

[thaman8765678]

Lol at people trying to discredit his 4 points.

 

[OfCorsiDid]

Oilers clearly don’t need McDavid.

McDavid to the islanders for Boychuk and a 4th

NO MORE TRADES WITH THE ISLANDERS

NO MAS

NO THANK YOU

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

The Blackhawks game planned for McDavid so these points don't count.

 

[Slicknitty]

I like this Draisaltl

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Most teams who are leading by in the third period of an important game tighten up and stop taking chances. Most teams who are losing by a goal in the third period of an important game throw everything at the net and take more chances. You didn't watch the game tonight. I can tell.

At this point you're either trolling or don't understand how the sport works. Last post I'm making.

No one has misrepresented your opinion in here. There are several posts (and a thread) from you making the same flawed/bad/wrong argument over and over by hiding behind a bunch of numbers while providing zero context. He can't do anything without McDavid, he drags down 3rd/4th liners, etc. You've posted all this stuff. When shown Draisaitl's numbers last season when McDavid was sick/suspended, the sample size was too small for you. Now he's leading the league in scoring and his line has been the hottest in hockey for 7 weeks and you're too ignorant and stubborn to say "oops, I was wrong". If you're wondering why people incessantly mock you about your John Carlson thread and why they are doing it again about Draisaitl, this is why.

Oh, I know exactly why people incessantly mock me about my John Carlson thread and why they do it about Draisaitl. It's because they completely fail to properly comprehend the argument that I'm making, they don't like the idea of looking at anything beyond raw points, or they don't like the idea that we can quantify a player's defensive impact on the game and hold poor defensive players such as Carlson/Draisaitl accountable. Often times, all of these things. And I don't care, ever, I just find it disappointing, and wish people would respond to the arguments that I actually make, and consider a different perspective.

I'm well aware that most teams who lead in the third period of an important game tighten up and stop taking chances. This is a well-researched phenomenon, and new research from Micah McCurdy suggests that this is mostly driven by the leading team hanging back, rather than the trailing team pushing harder. It has been well studied enough that there is a baseline level of what share of play that a team controls based on what their lead is, and score-adjusted numbers look at a player's number relative to that baseline, rather than the baseline of 50% that raw numbers used.

When shown Draisaitl's numbers last season when McDavid was sick/suspended, I said something to the effect of "great, but a lot of this comes from the power play, and these still don't look so great over the course of the full season or the last few full seasons."

This season, his on-ice numbers away from 97 certainly do look better.

Oilers with Draisaitl, without McDavid: 47.96% CF, 51.35% GF, 48.97% xGF
Oilers without Draisaitl or McDavid: 48.03% CF, 39.80% GF, 49.09% xGF

Still a slight drag on CF% and xGF%, but negligibly so, and more importantly, his offense clearly out-weighs his mediocre play driving, as evidenced by the GF%, which is driven by outperforming expected goals for and not goaltending. And I fully expect Draisaitl to outperform expected goals for because he is a great playmaker and arguably the best shooter in the league.

His individual scoring numbers look better as well. Ranks are where he would rank among the 360 forwards whose 5-on-5 ice time matches or exceeds his 364 minutes without 97 this season:

0.99 goals/60 (63rd)
0.66 primary assists/60 (123rd)
1.65 primary points/60 (79th)
1.15 secondary assists/60 (1st)
2.80 points/60 (10th)

While this is definitely good, and a marked improvement on what he's done in the past, it's tough to say how good it really is because such a large portion of his points in this small sample come from secondary assists. While I don't consider the secondary assist entirely worthless like some people do, it's clearly worth less than primary points, and I think you have to agree that this is a pretty insane rate of secondary assists that won't be sustained. It's possible that his primary scoring rates could increase as his secondary assist rates drop, but right now, neither the goal nor the primary assist rates in this very small sample are especially high.

What I want to see from Draisaitl, to make me really concede anything, is not going to be one good or bad game. I know he's a very talented player capable of having good games. What I want to see is a full season's worth of top-flight results playing at 5-on-5. And for the record, I'm not even saying he can't do that. I think it's very possible that he could, under the right circumstances. And I would be happy if he actually did it, because then I could just say "yeah, he's an elite #1C now" and be done with it. Instead, I still see posts like this, with 22 likes:

Prove what, he already leads the league in points without playing with McD 5 on 5.

And when I say "hey, this is completely false" and provide the truth, people get mad at me, and start constructing straw man arguments against me, even when I never did anything other than respond to a blatant lie.

Lastly, has his line really been the "hottest in hockey for 7 weeks"? I'd very much like you to substantiate that.

 

[RattsSSV]

I like this Draisaltl

He's pretty good at making hockey.

 

[SI90]

NO MORE TRADES WITH THE ISLANDERS

NO MAS

NO THANK YOU

Chia and Garth are both gone. I think you guys are safe.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

@JoeThorntonsRooster

Have you ever played hockey? Like actual ice hockey on a team?

Do you think it would be more effective to evaluate you and your teammates by watching them play or by analyzing spreadsheets?

Yes, I do play beer league hockey. It's tough to say how well somebody could evaluate beer league hockey with stats, and it's also completely irrelevant to the thread.

When it comes to analyzing NHL players, we have a ton of data, and it's clearly better than the eye test. This thread is perfect evidence of this. I mean, just look at this post:

Prove what, he already leads the league in points without playing with McD 5 on 5.

Smack dab on the front page. 22 people, including yourself liked this post, and not a single person outside of me quoted it.

At the time of this post, he had played over 60% of his 5V5 minutes with McDavid. Yet somehow, not a single Oilers fan, who have watched so much hockey, took any issue with this statement. Not a single one of them noticed a blatant lie about how their player has been deployed.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Oh, I know exactly why people incessantly mock me about my John Carlson thread and why they do it about Draisaitl. It's because they completely fail to properly comprehend the argument that I'm making, they don't like the idea of looking at anything beyond raw points, or they don't like the idea that we can quantify a player's defensive impact on the game and hold poor defensive players such as Carlson/Draisaitl accountable. Often times, all of these things. And I don't care, ever, I just find it disappointing, and wish people would respond to the arguments that I actually make, and consider a different perspective.

I'm well aware that most teams who lead in the third period of an important game tighten up and stop taking chances. This is a well-researched phenomenon, and new research from Micah McCurdy suggests that this is mostly driven by the leading team hanging back, rather than the trailing team pushing harder. It has been well studied enough that there is a baseline level of what share of play that a team controls based on what their lead is, and score-adjusted numbers look at a player's number relative to that baseline, rather than the baseline of 50% that raw numbers used.

When shown Draisaitl's numbers last season when McDavid was sick/suspended, I said something to the effect of "great, but a lot of this comes from the power play, and these still don't look so great over the course of the full season or the last few full seasons."

This season, his on-ice numbers away from 97 certainly do look better.

Oilers with Draisaitl, without McDavid: 47.96% CF, 51.35% GF, 48.97% xGF
Oilers without Draisaitl or McDavid: 48.03% CF, 39.80% GF, 49.09% xGF

Still a slight drag on CF% and xGF%, but negligibly so, and more importantly, his offense clearly out-weighs his mediocre play driving, as evidenced by the GF%, which is driven by outperforming expected goals for and not goaltending. And I fully expect Draisaitl to outperform expected goals for because he is a great playmaker and arguably the best shooter in the league.

His individual scoring numbers look better as well. Ranks are where he would rank among the 360 forwards whose 5-on-5 ice time matches or exceeds his 364 minutes without 97 this season:

0.99 goals/60 (63rd)
0.66 primary assists/60 (123rd)
1.65 primary points/60 (79th)
1.15 secondary assists/60 (1st)
2.80 points/60 (10th)

While this is definitely good, and a marked improvement on what he's done in the past, it's tough to say how good it really is because such a large portion of his points in this small sample come from secondary assists. While I don't consider the secondary assist entirely worthless like some people do, it's clearly worth less than primary points, and I think you have to agree that this is a pretty insane rate of secondary assists that won't be sustained. It's possible that his primary scoring rates could increase as his secondary assist rates drop, but right now, neither the goal nor the primary assist rates in this very small sample are especially high.

What I want to see from Draisaitl, to make me really concede anything, is not going to be one good or bad game. I know he's a very talented player capable of having good games. What I want to see is a full season's worth of top-flight results playing at 5-on-5. And for the record, I'm not even saying he can't do that. I think it's very possible that he could, under the right circumstances. And I would be happy if he actually did it, because then I could just say "yeah, he's an elite #1C now" and be done with it. Instead, I still see posts like this, with 22 likes:



And when I say "hey, this is completely false" and provide the truth, people get mad at me, and start constructing straw man arguments against me, even when I never did anything other than respond to a blatant lie.

Lastly, has his line really been the "hottest in hockey for 7 weeks"? I'd very much like you to substantiate that.

You somehow did it again lol.

You literally just came out with a stat that says the Edmonton oilers expected goals for is higher without Connor McDavid and draisatl than it is with draisatl on the ice. I don’t even care if that stat is true it just proves you are a Math major/graduate who wants to seem smart online because it’s straight up absurd. When drai gets 5 straight 100 point seasons I wonder what excuse you’ll come up with for his “unsustainable” rates.

 

[snipes]

Product of Yamamoto.

 

[Tage2Tuch]

With Mcdavid out, Draisatl can either silence the critic's or prove them right...for the next 2-3 weeks it's time to put the spotlight on him and his true value to the Oilers and ranking in the NHL.

Thoughts ?

It’s sample size central. It won’t determine it either way but it will still be interesting to see.

I think Leon’s proved himself to be a top ten player regardless but anyone that thinks having the best player on your line, power play and overtime right next to you doesent influence your point total is fooling themselves. McDavud on his own can gain zine entry so quick and set up multiple scoring chances on the fly that really all it takes is someone with good chemistry who’s already a skilled player to play with him to benefit. However benefitting and doing what Drai is doing are completely different. He is right there with McDavud in the top scorers and at times ahead of him, the last two years, that is what had made him top ten in my view.


For reference about sample size I’ll just use an example and no it’s not to just bring up eichel, this has nothing to do with where he ranks, it’s sad I have to say that before the example in going to give but if I don’t people will think the worst. Anyway when he was suspended for two games last year skinner scored two goals in one of the games and on the sabres game day thread a guy wrote “Pay HIM. NOW. Anything he wants, give him Eichels contract he just proved he’s Not a product of eichel” I said back then of course he isn’t a product of him, Skinner has proven himself to be a sniper in this league far before but anyone with eyeballs saw how much jack helped him last year. And that’s shown in a major way with his totals this year too. It was just sample size. I know Draisaitl in the past away From McDavid for a short period performed pretty decently again sample size. And I know on team Germany he did well even against poor competition but he did very well none the less.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

So what you’re saying is, secondary assists mean nothing?

@Del Preston please read this and then tell me that nobody is misrepresenting me.

Not all points are created equal, and while secondary assists have some value, a secondary assist rate in excess of 1 per hour and equal to or greater than the goal and primary assist rate shows that the secondary assist rate is probably fortunate and not sustainable.