Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl's next contract

[mighty Stanley Duck]

I think he will settle with 8 x 12.5
With cap going up, that's actually good deal, for Oilers, and also him.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

If they can win a cup or 2, I for one will be happy to watch this Core age out playing for the organization...

I think it's easy to say now, but you'll always want to win in the present.

I think a lot of Pens fans see the end of the line and would be open to a big return for Sid

 

[Sra1974]

I think it's easy to say now, but you'll always want to win in the present.

I think a lot of Pens fans see the end of the line and would be open to a big return for Sid

If I was in that position as a fan I think my mindset would be - whatever Sid wants is what happens. Wants to retire a Pen, then that’s what he gets and you cheer him to the end. He wants another crack, you send him off to a great situation and with him well. He’s earned that right.

 

[McBooya42]

While Draisaitl gets the second best D and the second best forwards against him (teams worry most about McDavid) he is a very good player in his own right. Not as good as the stats show I agree with that.

On his own he is still worth well over 10 million maybe close to 12 million.
He CAN do much without McDavid. Just does better with him.

Not worth 13.5 million on his own.

McDavid makes everybody's stats better. Look at Hyman. Look at Nuge. Look at Bouchard. Heck remember Maroon.

All a mooo point (always wanted to say that) as he is part of McDrai. How much they affect each other doesn’t matter they are a pair. What is important is how much they get as a pair.

No way he takes less than 13.5. Are you crazy? He's one of the best players in the world right now. Close to 12??!!

 

[fuswald]

No way he takes less than 13.5. Are you crazy? He's one of the best players in the world right now. Close to 12??!!

Didn't say he wouldn't get more but because of his age I think that is what he is worth on a reasonable team deal. 12-12.5.

He'll get more because he has oilers over a barrel.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

Didn't say he wouldn't get more but because of his age I think that is what he is worth on a reasonable team deal. 12-12.5.

He'll get more because he has oilers over a barrel.

I dont think he will hit the open market, but you just know that someone out there would offer him at least 16M if he did

 

[McDoused]

I dont think he will hit the open market, but you just know that someone out there would offer him at least 16M if he did

I agree. There are a few teams out there that likely would offer Draisaitl 16M x 7 years.

I just don't think that's the mentality you want when running a cap related business. It's basically the same logic we used with Darnell Nurse - we have to pay him the maximum or someone else will.

16M x 7 years is 112M. That same amount over 8 years is 14M AAV. So essentially, if we want to be competitive with the market, a 14M contract is fair. Asking a superstar like Draisaitl to stay for market value over another team is the discount. He's going to get paid no matter what but he can at least do us a favor by structuring it in a way for the Oilers to bring down his AAV.

With Nurse someone might have offered him 9.25M x 7 years which would have been the same as 8.1M x 8 years. I just don't see how Holland thought someone else would have offered Nurse 10.6M AAV x 7 years.

We can't make the mistake of overpaying Draisaitl over 14M as we would basically be bidding against ourselves. Anything under 14M will be a discount.

 

[McDoused]

I think he will settle with 8 x 12.5
With cap going up, that's actually good deal, for Oilers, and also him.

I don't see how this is a good deal for Draisaitl.

12.5M x 8 years is 100M. That same amount stretched over 7 years is only 14.29M AAV. At that price, he would be taking a massive discount IMO. He could easily get another 10-12M on the open market. I don't see why he leaves that much money on the table.

I think he might take a bit of a discount to stay but sacrificing over 1M a year is a lot to ask.

 

[powerserge]

You guys say that but how much did Nuge sacrifice $ wise to stay an Oiler? How much did Henrique and Brown sacrifice just this year. Brown could have easily said bye bye and got double or triple. All the stats show that our best chance to win is McD and Drai being under 27% of the cap. Taking 30% + is not the best, especially when you have Bouch that will be 10 mil, Nurse 9.25. The projected 16 mil for McD and 14 for Drai means 50% of the cap or more. This is not a good solution to keep our team competitive long term. Especially on an aging Drai whom will be 30 when his contract kicks in.

We are getting Drai with 2-3 great years left, after that high chance there is a decline. Sure pay Drai 14 mil if he is 26-27, not 30. Huge difference. We are getting less years where Drai is in his prime, simple as that. Drai at 13% of next years cap is 11.4 million. This is what Sid did and gives us the best chance to win and win for longer. Both Sid and Malkin signed their deals in the 13% range, not 15% which leaves more pie for other good players.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

You guys say that but how much did Nuge sacrifice $ wise to stay an Oiler? How much did Henrique and Brown sacrifice just this year. Brown could have easily said bye bye and got double or triple. All the stats show that our best chance to win is McD and Drai being under 27% of the cap. Taking 30% + is not the best, especially when you have Bouch that will be 10 mil, Nurse 9.25. The projected 16 mil for McD and 14 for Drai means 50% of the cap or more. This is not a good solution to keep our team competitive long term. Especially on an aging Drai whom will be 30 when his contract kicks in.

We are getting Drai with 2-3 great years left, after that high chance there is a decline. Sure pay Drai 14 mil if he is 26-27, not 30. Huge difference. We are getting less years where Drai is in his prime, simple as that. Drai at 13% of next years cap is 11.4 million. This is what Sid did and gives us the best chance to win and win for longer. Both Sid and Malkin signed their deals in the 13% range, not 15% which leaves more pie for other good players.

Im not saying we should give him north of 14M. I'm just saying someone would without a doubt. there are at least a 1/2 dozen competitive teams that will likely have the room and I wonder if that might play in his thought process for his next contract.
Next year we will likely be having the same discussion about Mcdavid too.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Im not saying we should give him north of 14M. I'm just saying someone would without a doubt. there are at least a 1/2 dozen competitive teams that will likely have the room and I wonder if that might play in his thought process for his next contract.
Next year we will likely be having the same discussion about Mcdavid too.

I agree. He’s a top 5 player in the league. Players like that don’t become available almost ever. Teams would back up the money truck.

 

[powerserge]

I agree. He’s a top 5 player in the league. Players like that don’t become available almost ever. Teams would back up the money truck.

Im not saying we should give him north of 14M. I'm just saying someone would without a doubt. there are at least a 1/2 dozen competitive teams that will likely have the room and I wonder if that might play in his thought process for his next contract.
Next year we will likely be having the same discussion about Mcdavid too.

No, not for a 30 yr old. And if Drai wants to play with McD concessions need to be made. Drai is top 5 but that's in part because of McD. If Drai was the captain and the main driver on any team he deserves Barkov or Panarin money. He is not at MacKinnon's level and AM at 25 singing a 4 yr deal, not 8. Just keeping it real. 11-12 is plenty for Drai. Anything in the 13's and 14's is an overpay for a player exiting his prime sooner than later.

 

[McDoused]

You guys say that but how much did Nuge sacrifice $ wise to stay an Oiler? How much did Henrique and Brown sacrifice just this year. Brown could have easily said bye bye and got double or triple. All the stats show that our best chance to win is McD and Drai being under 27% of the cap. Taking 30% + is not the best, especially when you have Bouch that will be 10 mil, Nurse 9.25. The projected 16 mil for McD and 14 for Drai means 50% of the cap or more. This is not a good solution to keep our team competitive long term. Especially on an aging Drai whom will be 30 when his contract kicks in.

We are getting Drai with 2-3 great years left, after that high chance there is a decline. Sure pay Drai 14 mil if he is 26-27, not 30. Huge difference. We are getting less years where Drai is in his prime, simple as that. Drai at 13% of next years cap is 11.4 million. This is what Sid did and gives us the best chance to win and win for longer. Both Sid and Malkin signed their deals in the 13% range, not 15% which leaves more pie for other good players.

If that's the Oilers offer, you might as well kiss Draisaitl goodbye. 11.4M is a slap in the face.

Also, Crosby signed a 12-year deal at 13.53% of the cap. Those types of deals just don't exist anymore so you can't really compare them.

Draisaitl's extension would kick in next year where the cap is expected to be 92M. 13.53% of 92M is 12.45M not, 11.4M. So yes if Draisaitl is willing to sign for 12.5M x 8 years = 100M he would be giving the team a discount. It's possible but not likely.

The NHL was very different 12 years ago. The superstars in today's game are getting a higher %.

McDavid (15.72%)
MacKinnon (15.09%)
Matthews (15.06%)
Panarin (14.29%)

That doesn't even include guys that are on a lower level:

Karlsson - (14.11%)
Tavares - (13.84%)
Pastrnak - (13.47%)
Pettersson - (13.18%)
Nylander - (13.07%)
Huberdeau - (12.57%)

I don't see him signing for more than Matthews because of the length (even though he's worth it). I also don't see him taking as little as Pasta. He's going to land somewhere in that 13.5-15% range.

I think that the sweet spot is at 13.5M a season or 14.7% of the cap.

 

[Juxta Position]

No, not for a 30 yr old. And if Drai wants to play with McD concessions need to be made. Drai is top 5 but that's in part because of McD. If Drai was the captain and the main driver on any team he deserves Barkov or Panarin money. He is not at MacKinnon's level and AM at 25 singing a 4 yr deal, not 8. Just keeping it real. 11-12 is plenty for Drai. Anything in the 13's and 14's is an overpay for a player exiting his prime sooner than later.

None of that is correct.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

I just can’t see him taking that much of a discount to stay here
With all the expectations of the cap going up significantly again next year, teams like Dallas, Carolina, the Rangers and Vegas will have the room. Those teams aren’t terrible and I’d suspect getting an extra 20M over the term of a contract to play for any of those teams would be really tempting

 

[powerserge]

If that's the Oilers offer, you might as well kiss Draisaitl goodbye. 11.4M is a slap in the face.

Also, Crosby signed a 12-year deal at 13.53% of the cap. Those types of deals just don't exist anymore so you can't really compare them.

View attachment 899847

Draisaitl's extension would kick in next year where the cap is expected to be 92M. 13.53% of 92M is 12.45M not, 11.4M. So yes if Draisaitl is willing to sign for 12.5M x 8 years = 100M he would be giving the team a discount. It's possible but not likely.

The NHL was very different 12 years ago. The superstars in today's game are getting a higher %.

McDavid (15.72%)
MacKinnon (15.09%)
Matthews (15.06%)
Panarin (14.29%)

That doesn't even include guys that are on a lower level:

Karlsson - (14.11%)
Tavares - (13.84%)
Pastrnak - (13.47%)
Pettersson - (13.18%)
Nylander - (13.07%)
Huberdeau - (12.57%)

I don't see him signing for more than Matthews because of the length (even though he's worth it). I also don't see him taking as little as Pasta. He's going to land somewhere in that 13.5-15% range.

I think that the sweet spot is at 13.5M a season or 14.7% of the cap.

Well thought out but the contract is when the player signs the deal. 88 million next year when he signs at 13% is 11.4 million. Players in this day and age don't do that anymore. Ok... Barkov 12% of the cap, turtle 11.5% of the cap. Reinhart whom just signed his deal, almost a 50 goal scorer getting paid for a cup got how much? 8.6 mil or 9.8% of the cap. There is a difference between winning and losing. Cats got rid of two older player for Tkatchuk, now Montour is also gone as an older player and replaced with cheaper youth. It's a better bet. Youth vs age. By default Drai is worth less because of age and the Mcd factor and most team are aware of this.


Mac got paid after winning a cup, so did Kuch, so did Toews and Kane. No cups for Drai yet. Pay your top players less, then you have the money for more depth. Heard it 100 times, depth. Teams too top heavy, not enough depth. We will not win if McD and Drai make up 30%, with Bouch and Nurse all added up to 50% +. It is NOT a winning formula. Maybe Drai takes 12.5 and McD the same to even things out (no raise), this would work also.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

No, not for a 30 yr old. And if Drai wants to play with McD concessions need to be made. Drai is top 5 but that's in part because of McD. If Drai was the captain and the main driver on any team he deserves Barkov or Panarin money. He is not at MacKinnon's level and AM at 25 singing a 4 yr deal, not 8. Just keeping it real. 11-12 is plenty for Drai. Anything in the 13's and 14's is an overpay for a player exiting his prime sooner than later.

This post couldn’t be further from “keeping it real.” Drai is a better player than Breadman and Barkov. Not even really comparable. Matthews will also get paid a boatload his next contract.

11-12 million for a player who has produced at a 100 point + pace the last 6 seasons and is one of the best playoff performers in the league is just lala land thinking.

The offers for him if he hits free agency will be 14+ million. Easily.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

If the cap is really headed where some anticipate (92 to 95M) a year or two from now, if we re-sign both Leon and McDavid, I would not be surprised if their combined AAV crowds the 30M mark

 

[McJadeddog]

If the cap is really headed where some anticipate (92 to 95M) a year or two from now, if we re-sign both Leon and McDavid, I would not be surprised if their combined AAV crowds the 30M mark

Then we don't win a cup. Or at least it is much more unlikely. A hard cap really does provide a zero-sum outcome. I don't blame them for after their bag, but we all have to stop pretending that doing so doesn't come at the cost of other things, because it most certainly does.

 

[Oilslick941611]

Then we don't win a cup. Or at least it is much more unlikely. A hard cap really does provide a zero-sum outcome. I don't blame them for after their bag, but we all have to stop pretending that doing so doesn't come at the cost of other things, because it most certainly does.

Dude we could sign them for 1 dollar and still not win a cup. It’s tough and so much more than just cap hit goes in it. If we didn’t have the injuries we had in the finals this year we would won.

If drai is signed on a wonderful team friendly deal but gets injured again chances are we don’t win a cup. Hell chances are against us no matter what.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Then we don't win a cup. Or at least it is much more unlikely. A hard cap really does provide a zero-sum outcome. I don't blame them for after their bag, but we all have to stop pretending that doing so doesn't come at the cost of other things, because it most certainly does.

Well we aren’t winning the cup if we don’t pay them and they leave either.

We have a better chance at winning the cup with an expensive McDrai than we do with no McDrai.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

Then we don't win a cup. Or at least it is much more unlikely. A hard cap really does provide a zero-sum outcome. I don't blame them for after their bag, but we all have to stop pretending that doing so doesn't come at the cost of other things, because it most certainly does.

I wouldn't say you are entirely wrong but in the cap world its pretty rare to have 2 players of this caliber.
They are going to get paid fairly one way or another.
I think Nurses contract is our problem and Bouchard needs to be paid too. What is he getting?

 

[McDoused]

Well thought out but the contract is when the player signs the deal. 88 million next year when he signs at 13% is 11.4 million. Players in this day and age don't do that anymore. Ok... Barkov 12% of the cap, turtle 11.5% of the cap. Reinhart whom just signed his deal, almost a 50 goal scorer getting paid for a cup got how much? 8.6 mil or 9.8% of the cap. There is a difference between winning and losing. Cats got rid of two older player for Tkatchuk, now Montour is also gone as an older player and replaced with cheaper youth. It's a better bet. Youth vs age. By default Drai is worth less because of age and the Mcd factor and most team are aware of this.


Mac got paid after winning a cup, so did Kuch, so did Toews and Kane. No cups for Drai yet. Pay your top players less, then you have the money for more depth. Heard it 100 times, depth. Teams too top heavy, not enough depth. We will not win if McD and Drai make up 30%, with Bouch and Nurse all added up to 50% +. It is NOT a winning formula. Maybe Drai takes 12.5 and McD the same to even things out (no raise), this would work also.

Why would we use today's cap % instead of when the extension kicks in? This makes no sense. The only reason why is because it doesn't fit your narrative. The cap is going up and teams will use the cap % based on the future cap - in Draisaitl's case it will be 92M not 88M. All the numbers I used were based on when the contract starts, not when its signed.

Once again, if you think Draisaitl is signing for 11.4M you are kidding yourself. Their is no point of saving that money for "depth" while seeing your top players leave. I already pointed out that 11.4M would be a smaller % of next years cap (12.4%) than guys like Huberdeau, Nylander, Tavares, etc. It just doesn't make any sense. I have time for talking about a 12.5M x 8 year contract at the minimum but anything less than that is pure fantasy.

To suggest that Draisaitl needs to take a discount because he hasn't won yet is comical. He's one of the best playoff performers (and regular season performers) of our generation. Someone is going to pay Draisaitl if we don't.

Draisaitl at 14.7% (next year) and McDavid at 15.56% (the year after) would be 28.5M when the cap is likely 96M cap or just under 30% of the cap.

 

[McBooya42]

Didn't say he wouldn't get more but because of his age I think that is what he is worth on a reasonable team deal. 12-12.5.

He'll get more because he has oilers over a barrel.

He'll get more because he's worth more. Do you think he's better than Matthews who's getting 13.25? I do, especially as he's a C. It's not 2010 man...the guy would be taking a haircut at 13.5.

 

[powerserge]

Why would we use today's cap % instead of when the extension kicks in? This makes no sense. The only reason why is because it doesn't fit your narrative. The cap is going up and teams will use the cap % based on the future cap - in Draisaitl's case it will be 92M not 88M. All the numbers I used were based on when the contract starts, not when its signed.

Once again, if you think Draisaitl is signing for 11.4M you are kidding yourself. Their is no point of saving that money for "depth" while seeing your top players leave. I already pointed out that 11.4M would be a smaller % of next years cap (12.4%) than guys like Huberdeau, Nylander, Tavares, etc. It just doesn't make any sense. I have time for talking about a 12.5M x 8 year contract at the minimum but anything less than that is pure fantasy.

To suggest that Draisaitl needs to take a discount because he hasn't won yet is comical. He's one of the best playoff performers (and regular season performers) of our generation. Someone is going to pay Draisaitl if we don't.

Draisaitl at 14.7% (next year) and McDavid at 15.56% (the year after) would be 28.5M when the cap is likely 96M cap or just under 30% of the cap.

The cap is determined when players sign their deals. 30% of the cap for two top stars does not work, history has shown this. Add Bouch and Nurse then it is even more difficult. Been a long time since we have had a recession, next one is going to be a doozy. You cannot project that everything just goes up and up. Anyways see what happens