Player Discussion Leon Draisaitl's next contract

[Arty Spooners Bsmnt]

It will never go away. Any outside narrative surrounding the Oilers will live forever. Even if we went a clean 16-0 in the playoffs, you'll still hear "easiest path to the cup ever, refs favoured them, McDavid dives, they only score on the PP, etc, etc."

Basically it's been determined by the 90% of fans outside of Edmonton that despise the Oilers that no matter what, the Oilers and their players can't possibly be good, it's either 100% McDavid driven or there was some conspiracy to get them to the top.

I think the hiding of the whistles in game seven to favour the Panthers is the conspiracy.

 

[T-Funk]

I think the hiding of the whistles in game seven to favour the Panthers is the conspiracy.

They couldn't get their arms up fast enough on Foegele getting his gloves up on someone's chest driving the net. Funny how that works

 

[McJadeddog]

I'll just leave this here:

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

I'll just leave this here:

Please tell us what they said because I cannot watch these 2 guys. It’s like watching paint dry.

 

[McJadeddog]

Please tell us what they said because I cannot watch these 2 guys. It’s like watching paint dry.

McDrai both need to take less to win the cup. Something around 27% of the cap would be great for the starting year, which would be a combined ~$25 M for a presumed cap of $92.5 in Drai's first year of new contract.

They are basically saying similar things to what I've been preaching. If they want to win, they need to take discounts, full stop. If they don't, we won't win a cup.

Another one along a similar line: Memo to Edmonton Oilers: No team has won Stanley Cup with a player earning more than $10 million. The average cup winning team in the cap era had their top 2 players making 23% of the cap, and only 2 teams winning with more than 27% going to the top 2 players, over those 19 years. 23% would be $21.275 M with the same 92.5 cap assumption. Again, McDrai need to take pretty huge discounts compared to what they *could* earn on the open market if they want to win a cup. If they take anything approaching the rumored $13 and $15 M, it will put them at 30.1%, which no team has ever won a cup with (the highest ever was 29.5%).

I've been preaching this non-stop, and people keep saying "that is managements job to figure out". Well, if the Oilers management group can figure it out, they will be the first to do so. The much vaunted Tampa, Colorado, Florida and Vegas management groups won the cups over the past 5 years with a range of 22.1-24%.

 

[Spawn]

McDrai both need to take less to win the cup. Something around 27% of the cap would be great for the starting year, which would be a combined ~$25 M for a presumed cap of $92.5 in Drai's first year of new contract.

They are basically saying similar things to what I've been preaching. If they want to win, they need to take discounts, full stop. If they don't, we won't win a cup.

Another one along a similar line: Memo to Edmonton Oilers: No team has won Stanley Cup with a player earning more than $10 million. The average cup winning team in the cap era had their top 2 players making 23% of the cap, and only 2 teams winning with more than 27% going to the top 2 players, over those 19 years. 23% would be $21.275 M with the same 92.5 cap assumption. Again, McDrai need to take pretty huge discounts compared to what they *could* earn on the open market if they want to win a cup. If they take anything approaching the rumored $13 and $15 M, it will put them at 30.1%, which no team has ever won a cup with (the highest ever was 29.5%).

I've been preaching this non-stop, and people keep saying "that is managements job to figure out". Well, if the Oilers management group can figure it out, they will be the first to do so. The much vaunted Tampa, Colorado, Florida and Vegas management groups won the cups over the past 5 years with a range of 22.1-24%.

I think you're probably underestimating what the cap will be assuming there isn't another global pandemic.

If we assuming a modest $5M increase each off season (it went from $83M to $88M this summer) it will be 98M by the time McDavid's new contract kicked in which would put them at just over 28% even if your $13M and $15M were correct.

And yes, the average cup winning team might be at 23%, but the average cup winning team didn't have a player as good as McDavid. In fact no cup winning team in the past 19 years has had a player as good as McDavid. So all those comparables to some extent are meaningless.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

McDrai both need to take less to win the cup. Something around 27% of the cap would be great for the starting year, which would be a combined ~$25 M for a presumed cap of $92.5 in Drai's first year of new contract.

They are basically saying similar things to what I've been preaching. If they want to win, they need to take discounts, full stop. If they don't, we won't win a cup.

Another one along a similar line: Memo to Edmonton Oilers: No team has won Stanley Cup with a player earning more than $10 million. The average cup winning team in the cap era had their top 2 players making 23% of the cap, and only 2 teams winning with more than 27% going to the top 2 players, over those 19 years. 23% would be $21.275 M with the same 92.5 cap assumption. Again, McDrai need to take pretty huge discounts compared to what they *could* earn on the open market if they want to win a cup. If they take anything approaching the rumored $13 and $15 M, it will put them at 30.1%, which no team has ever won a cup with (the highest ever was 29.5%).

I've been preaching this non-stop, and people keep saying "that is managements job to figure out". Well, if the Oilers management group can figure it out, they will be the first to do so. The much vaunted Tampa, Colorado, Florida and Vegas management groups won the cups over the past 5 years with a range of 22.1-24%.

and no team with a 10+ million dollar player went to Game 7 of the Cup final until last year

preach all you want, it doesn't make a lick of difference

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

McDrai both need to take less to win the cup. Something around 27% of the cap would be great for the starting year, which would be a combined ~$25 M for a presumed cap of $92.5 in Drai's first year of new contract.

They are basically saying similar things to what I've been preaching. If they want to win, they need to take discounts, full stop. If they don't, we won't win a cup.

Another one along a similar line: Memo to Edmonton Oilers: No team has won Stanley Cup with a player earning more than $10 million. The average cup winning team in the cap era had their top 2 players making 23% of the cap, and only 2 teams winning with more than 27% going to the top 2 players, over those 19 years. 23% would be $21.275 M with the same 92.5 cap assumption. Again, McDrai need to take pretty huge discounts compared to what they *could* earn on the open market if they want to win a cup. If they take anything approaching the rumored $13 and $15 M, it will put them at 30.1%, which no team has ever won a cup with (the highest ever was 29.5%).

I've been preaching this non-stop, and people keep saying "that is managements job to figure out". Well, if the Oilers management group can figure it out, they will be the first to do so. The much vaunted Tampa, Colorado, Florida and Vegas management groups won the cups over the past 5 years with a range of 22.1-24%.

Thanks for that. They will take a hometown discount I’m sure, how much it will be will be anyone’s guess. The past 5 years the cap has stayed stagnant and before that it was below $80M. If they take 30M of the projected nearly 92M next year for McDavids year it’ll be $98M the following year and so on after that.

Either way it’ll be a large percentage but I’d be surprised if it’s over 30%.

 

[McJadeddog]

and no team with a 10+ million dollar player went to Game 7 of the Cup final until last year

preach all you want, it doesn't make a lick of difference

None of what any of us say on here makes any difference. We are just shooting the breeze at the end of the day

 

[Canovin]

and no team with a 10+ million dollar player went to Game 7 of the Cup final until last year

preach all you want, it doesn't make a lick of difference

Eichel and Barkov make 10M. Both on a no state tax discount. So I would say no team have won the cup making 11M or more.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

its gonna work out ok.
Leon will sign for 12 Mcdavid will sign for 15.

 

[jukon]

McDavid and Draisaitl don't want to play with scrubs. Players like Hyman take a discount to play here. They will leave money on the table. No doubt.

 

[fuswald]

This one is gonna be a costly. He's over rated. Can't do much without mcJ.

While Draisaitl gets the second best D and the second best forwards against him (teams worry most about McDavid) he is a very good player in his own right. Not as good as the stats show I agree with that.

On his own he is still worth well over 10 million maybe close to 12 million.
He CAN do much without McDavid. Just does better with him.

Not worth 13.5 million on his own.

McDavid makes everybody's stats better. Look at Hyman. Look at Nuge. Look at Bouchard. Heck remember Maroon.

All a mooo point (always wanted to say that) as he is part of McDrai. How much they affect each other doesn’t matter they are a pair. What is important is how much they get as a pair.

 

[CROTT]

and no team with a 10+ million dollar player went to Game 7 of the Cup final until last year

preach all you want, it doesn't make a lick of difference

With the cap going up its only a matter of time until a 10+ million caphit on a team is common place, I think the real metric here is percentage of the cap at the time. Also salary vs caphit, as Crosby made 12 million for the 2016 cup win and 10.9 million for the 2017 cup though with the contract front loaded and his choices he had an 8.7 million caphit for that contract.

 

[Oilslick941611]

With the cap going up its only a matter of time until a 10+ million caphit on a team is common place, I think the real metric here is percentage of the cap at the time. Also salary vs caphit, as Crosby made 12 million for the 2016 cup win and 10.9 million for the 2017 cup though with the contract front loaded and his choices he had an 8.7 million caphit for that contract.

Thats the nature of the Cap. As the salary cap goes up, so do player wages. We had a very unusually weird period of a flat cap that may have skewed people view on cap hit. There will be a day where the best player on every team will make 10 mill. 10 mil will be the new 7-8mil. As long the cap is tied to HRR it will be healthy and people will need to drop the " no team with a cap of X has every done Y" or judge the value solely on the number.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

With the cap going up its only a matter of time until a 10+ million caphit on a team is common place, I think the real metric here is percentage of the cap at the time. Also salary vs caphit, as Crosby made 12 million for the 2016 cup win and 10.9 million for the 2017 cup though with the contract front loaded and his choices he had an 8.7 million caphit for that contract.

Exactly! When I say they will sign for 12M and 15M thats considering that its totally plausible that on the open market they would be offered 15M and 18M by somebody. therefore the 12 and 15 would be considered a discount.

 

[CupofOil]

Eichel and Barkov make 10M. Both on a no state tax discount. So I would say no team have won the cup making 11M or more.

But that doesn't mean anything because past cap numbers have nothing to do with future cap numbers. $11m will be like the new $9m before long etc. Drai's $8.5m which looked like a big number at the time became a relatively miniscule number halfway through the contract and that was when the cap was starting to flatten. The Oilers/Holland were one of the teams that got screwed the most with the Covid cap tbh.

Now if you want to dig into cap percentage that's a different story but comparing pure AAV numbers to past AAV numbers in a rising cap become more irrelevant as the cap rises more especially as we distance from Covid flat cap world.

 

[CROTT]

Thats the nature of the Cap. As the salary cap goes up, so do player wages. We had a very unusually weird period of a flat cap that may have skewed people view on cap hit. There will be a day where the best player on every team will make 10 mill. 10 mil will be the new 7-8mil. As long the cap is tied to HRR it will be healthy and people will need to drop the " no team with a cap of X has every done Y" or judge the value solely on the number.

Yep, just like no European captain won the cup with the majority of captains being Canadian/American until recently.

 

[McShogun99]

They couldn't get their arms up fast enough on Foegele getting his gloves up on someone's chest driving the net. Funny how that works

I liked the no call on the obvious goalie interference on Skinner.

 

[Canovin]

But that doesn't mean anything because past cap numbers have nothing to do with future cap numbers. $11m will be like the new $9m before long etc. Drai's $8.5m which looked like a big number at the time became a relatively miniscule number halfway through the contract and that was when the cap was starting to flatten. The Oilers/Holland were one of the teams that got screwed the most with the Covid cap tbh.

Now if you want to dig into cap percentage that's a different story but comparing pure AAV numbers to past AAV numbers in a rising cap become more irrelevant as the cap rises more especially as we distance from Covid flat cap world.

11M will eventually be the new 9M. It's not there yet. Maybe in 4 years it'll feel that way. Winning with players making 11M or more isn't easy. May not even happen for awhile. We can go with cap percentage but 11M is easier to compute

Covid era screwed the Oilers but the Oilers also screwed themselves over. Holland started his tenure with buying out Sekera.

 

[AM]

I get a kick about people talking about how old Kane is. If draisaitl gets a 8 year deal, at 33 he will only be half way through it. Something to think about.

 

[AM]

McDrai both need to take less to win the cup. Something around 27% of the cap would be great for the starting year, which would be a combined ~$25 M for a presumed cap of $92.5 in Drai's first year of new contract.

They are basically saying similar things to what I've been preaching. If they want to win, they need to take discounts, full stop. If they don't, we won't win a cup.

Another one along a similar line: Memo to Edmonton Oilers: No team has won Stanley Cup with a player earning more than $10 million. The average cup winning team in the cap era had their top 2 players making 23% of the cap, and only 2 teams winning with more than 27% going to the top 2 players, over those 19 years. 23% would be $21.275 M with the same 92.5 cap assumption. Again, McDrai need to take pretty huge discounts compared to what they *could* earn on the open market if they want to win a cup. If they take anything approaching the rumored $13 and $15 M, it will put them at 30.1%, which no team has ever won a cup with (the highest ever was 29.5%).

I've been preaching this non-stop, and people keep saying "that is managements job to figure out". Well, if the Oilers management group can figure it out, they will be the first to do so. The much vaunted Tampa, Colorado, Florida and Vegas management groups won the cups over the past 5 years with a range of 22.1-24%.

There is another option. Fully trade able.

 

[Broberg Speed]

If Draisaitl leaves the Oilers for any reason I'm flat out done with the NHL. It's a garbage league run by racketeers.

 

[MessierII]

Eichel and Barkov make 10M. Both on a no state tax discount. So I would say no team have won the cup making 11M or more.

Plus bobrovsky.

 

[SaltNPeca]

I get a kick about people talking about how old Kane is. If draisaitl gets a 8 year deal, at 33 he will only be half way through it. Something to think about.

If they can win a cup or 2, I for one will be happy to watch this Core age out playing for the organization...