Leon Draisaitl is not having a good season, he's having a great season

[McPoyle]

Guy is insane and a beast on the puck. Treat to watch.

Cant see McDavid beating him for the art ross with his play at this point and kuch and McKinnon also consistently blowing him out of the water. 1 assist for McDavid while big three all had massive nights

I see your back from a lengthy hibernation after McDavid hit 150 points!

 

[snipes]

Playing arguably his best regular season hockey he’s ever played. Been just dominant at both ends of the ice.

He’s a playoff beast which is well established. Playoff Drai is a whole other level.

As great as he’s been so far this season it bears repeating that all that matters this year is one trophy.

 

[Fourier]

Not sure why you didn't include any seasons from 2009 to 2014 and include info about McDrai prior to 22/23 but regardless, the main point was about their playoff success (four SCFs) without spending hardly any time at ES and producing, and sometimes carrying 3rd line/4th line level linemates.

McDrai have been more of a duo than a two headed monster and there really isn't a huge similarity between them and Crosby/Malkin, or other great 2C combos like Sakic/Forsberg and Yzerman/Federov.

I didn't include those because you specifically referenced 2008 and 2009 cup finals suggesting that the reason that the Pens were successful is that Crosby and Malkin played little together and that the team was successful because they produced so well apart. In fact, the stats don't show that the pair out produced McDavid and Draisaitl apart or together.

In the 2007-2008 through 2008-2009 playoffs here are the numbers in terms of team production:

Crosby and Malkin together:

TOI 68 GF/60 5.28

Crosby without Malkin

TOI 585 GF/60 2.66

Malkin without Crosby

TOI 582 GF/60 2.92


For McDavid and Leon the last three years.

McDavid and Draisaitl

TOI 374 GF/60 6.1

McDavid without Draisaitl

TOI 545 GF/60 3.41

Draisaitl without McDavid

TOI 476 GF/60 2.65

It should also be noted that the numbers for Draisaitl and McDavid together are somewhat skewed by the injuries Draisaitl had in both 2023 and 2024 playoffs. This is especially true in 2023 where Leon had a significant high ankle sprain that made it difficult for him to play center on his own line.

The other thing that needs to be noted is that pp goals count. Malkin and Crosby played almost exclusively together on the pp and with the two on the ice the pens put up 9.6 GF/60. Similarly the Oilers duo also played mostly exclusively together and in their case the pp scoring rate was 12.53 GF/60.

Winning is a team accomplishment. If the team could win simply from two stars producing with or without one another, the Oilers would have won multiple cups.

 

[Killer Orcas]

He's doing what he does every year and the same people keep saying it's because of someone else. Let me be clear it's not and he's been this damn good for awhile now. He's been in the top 5 players and as high as 2 for over 5 years for me. Guys a stud.

 

[CanadienShark]

Maybe every time he signs a big contract, he's extra motivated and his game levels up.

 

[Romang67]

He's doing what he does every year and the same people keep saying it's because of someone else. Let me be clear it's not and he's been this damn good for awhile now. He's been in the top 5 players and as high as 2 for over 5 years for me. Guys a stud.

I disagree. In the three years before this, Draisaitl without McDavid hovered around 50% xGF%, and a decent but not great 52% GF% (compared to almost 60% xGF and GF with him). That sample is around 2500 minutes of 5v5 hockey.

This year he's at almost 57% xGF%. The Oilers are crushing teams when he's on the ice, with or without McDavid.

 

[notbias]

We always knew what he could do offensively, I didn’t not have Drai becoming an elite defensive player at 29 years old in my books. My guess is that he saw 7 games of Barkov up close and personal last June and something clicked. What a talent.

Edit- if someone has his offensive and defensive advanced stats this season, please post them. Legit playing some incredible two way hockey this season.

Went looking for stats assuming he would be terrible defensively like every year (especially playoffs), but he is really good defensively this year.

I like Edmonton's chances more if he can play like this all season and through the playoffs.

Good for him if he turns into a two-way C.

 

[Ghost of Murph]

Honestly didn't think Drai had much ceiling left. Apparently he hadn't peaked in terms of his two-way game. He is worth every penny of his upcoming $14M per.

 

[Czechboy]

replace McDavid with Bozak

I'd like to think we'd get more for McDavid than just Bozak in a trade. Those other players, cap space and picks included might help the team as well?

Or are we just replacing one of the best players in the game with Tyler Bozak? Eg. I don't think Makar would be as good if MacK was replaced with Bozak. I dont' think Matthews would be as good if we replaced Marner with Bozak too. In fact, I don't think a lot of players would be as good if we replaced the top player with Tyler Bozak. He was a nice player but never hit 50 points and never made more than 5 mill in a season. Why is he the guy we are replacing elite 1C's with big caphits with? If that is your argument.. than yes I agree. Replacing the best 1C's in the league directly for Tyler Bozak would make their teams worse.

I'm just not getting why any team would replace McDavid with Bozak?

 

[BLNY]

When's the last time he hasn't had a great season? 17-18?

 

[DitchMarner]

I think some people still don't realize that the Oilers have transitioned from being a "run and gun" type of team that scores a lot off the rush to being a puck-dominant team that controls the play and spends a lot of time in the attacking zone. Draisaitl and McDavid seem to have adapted their games to become terrific fits for this style of play.

If they can get reliable depth scoring in the playoffs, the Oilers should be a tough out again.

 

[NVious]

Probably a psychological boost from the Preds being so bad, not only does he want to destroy them, but he feels even better when they're doing bad on their own.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

As great as he’s been so far this season it bears repeating that all that matters this year is one trophy.

The Lady Byng?

 

[Reindl87]

If Draisaitl played at 100 percent every night he d be the best noch doubt. Maybe that contract is a chip on his shoulder that help him beat his inner Lady spoiled brat on a permanent Basis.

 

[Sanderson]

I've often wondered what the mindset of players like Draisaitl is likes with regards to being the Gretzky of their nation.

Like, nobody in Germany even comes close to this guy. Most IIHF countries at the men's national level usually at least have a handful of elites at minimum (Czechs, Finnsor are otherwise nobodies but it probably sucks more being the only legit franchise-level elite talent

There certainly was nobody of that caliber before he came around (unless you count Erich Kühnhackl, who never really wanted to play NHL), but it isn't really true that no one comes close to him.

Tim Stützle has actually been tracking ahead of Draisaitl throughout their early careers, e.g. Stützle made it to 250 career points in 287 games while it took Draisaitl 305. He also should make it to 300 points before Draisaitl did. Afterwards it gets trickier, as this is around the time Draisaitl added another level.
Stützle does have a 90 point season at age 21 though, and he has also upped his offense again after he played with an injury for most of last season. He has also taken huge steps defensively. Even if he should fail to reach the heights Draisaitl has seen so far, he's still very much a franchise player in his own right, and does have the talent to grow even further.

The rest isn't quite at that level, but Seider is still a young high-end defenseman, and Peterka - even though he is in a slump right now - should be at the very least a 2nd line player, if not more, though obviously not franchise talent.


It's not that unusual for smaller nations to have a big star with little beyond that. Kopitar would be an obvious example, or Dirk Nowitzki in basketball.

 

[Czechboy]

There certainly was nobody of that caliber before he came around (unless you count Erich Kühnhackl, who never really wanted to play NHL), but it isn't really true that no one comes close to him.

Tim Stützle has actually been tracking ahead of Draisaitl throughout their early careers, e.g. Stützle made it to 250 career points in 287 games while it took Draisaitl 305. He also should make it to 300 points before Draisaitl did. Afterwards it gets trickier, as this is around the time Draisaitl added another level.
Stützle does have a 90 point season at age 21 though, and he has also upped his offense again after he played with an injury for most of last season. He has also taken huge steps defensively. Even if he should fail to reach the heights Draisaitl has seen so far, he's still very much a franchise player in his own right, and does have the talent to grow even further.

The rest isn't quite at that level, but Seider is still a young high-end defenseman, and Peterka - even though he is in a slump right now - should be at the very least a 2nd line player, if not more, though obviously not franchise talent.


It's not that unusual for smaller nations to have a big star with little beyond that. Kopitar would be an obvious example, or Dirk Nowitzki in basketball.

Or Pasta the last several seasons for the Czechs as another example.

Those 3 Germans are unreal! Peterka is damn good himself as well.

I keep saying that if Czech hockey could get those 4 Germans that we'd be at the 4 nations cup right now. Give Drai Pasta and Stutzl on line 1. Give Necas Zacha and Hertl (move 1 to wing). That is a top 6!

Seider at 25 a night on top pair. Not toss in Hronek and Gudas and we're cooking!

It does get really thin after that for the German's though and not much in the pipeline. As an international nerd, the German's are taking some shit kickings at the Jr Levels. And the draft has not been kind lately.

Last 4 drafts (no one in 2024). One 2nd rounder, one third rounder (part of Oilers not wanting Walstedt for free) and then 5,6,7 guys. We'll see how it goes.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

I'd like to think we'd get more for McDavid than just Bozak in a trade. Those other players, cap space and picks included might help the team as well?

Or are we just replacing one of the best players in the game with Tyler Bozak? Eg. I don't think Makar would be as good if MacK was replaced with Bozak. I dont' think Matthews would be as good if we replaced Marner with Bozak too. In fact, I don't think a lot of players would be as good if we replaced the top player with Tyler Bozak. He was a nice player but never hit 50 points and never made more than 5 mill in a season. Why is he the guy we are replacing elite 1C's with big caphits with? If that is your argument.. than yes I agree. Replacing the best 1C's in the league directly for Tyler Bozak would make their teams worse.

I'm just not getting why any team would replace McDavid with Bozak?

not talking about a trade just using him as an example. Drai doesnt need McDavid but if u replaced someone like McDavid with pretty much anyone around the skill lvl of a 2/3C his numbers would be effected, McDavid inflates Drai's point totals but by how much is the question. I still think Drai would be ppg even on a terrible team

 

[Czechboy]

not talking about a trade just using him as an example. Drai doesnt need McDavid but if u replaced someone like McDavid with pretty much anyone around the skill lvl of a 2/3C his numbers would be effected, McDavid inflates Drai's point totals but by how much is the question. I still think Drai would be ppg even on a terrible team

This the classic 'this team would suck if you take away their best player argument'. It applies to every team in the NHL. I totally agree with your point but if they had Bozak, they'd still have 7 million in cap space (using his highest cap hit).

But, yes, 100%, if you replace the best player on a team with a shittier one (no knock on Bozak but that is a hell of dropoff) then the team will be worse and individual point totals will go down.

 

[Coffey]

This the classic 'this team would suck if you take away their best player argument'. It applies to every team in the NHL. I totally agree with your point but if they had Bozak, they'd still have 7 million in cap space (using his highest cap hit).

But, yes, 100%, if you replace the best player on a team with a shittier one (no knock on Bozak but that is a hell of dropoff) then the team will be worse and individual point totals will go down.

Imagine the Avs if they replaced Makar with Bozak

 

[1989]

Draisaitl makes less than every other player in the top 5 scoring right now.

But lets look a where he stands vs the league:

This year as of now:

4th in points 1st in goals

Since the beginning of 2023-24:

5th in points 7th in goals

Since the beginning of 2022-23

4th in point 4th in goals

Since the beginning of 2021-22

3rd in points 2nd in goals

Since the beginning of 2020-21

2nd in goals 2nd in points.

Lets go back to the season he started his deal 2017-2018:

2nd in goals 2nd in points

Now add in playoffs:

Over the last three years:

1st in goals 2nd in points

(And he had significant injuries in two of those three years).

The league is on the edge of a potentially huge upward movement in the cap and salaries will follow. Draisaitl signed an 8 year deal starting next year. Aside from an off year last year in the regular season he has been as consistent a producer as any player not named McDavid. Based on this context make your case as to why his next deal is not deserved.

Thank you for some numbers.

For what it's worth, I didn't say it was not deserved, I said he'll be the most expensive of all of them despite not necessarily separating himself from Kucherov, MacKinnon, Kaprizov on a regular basis.

As your own post shows, he's not typically first in any given category but obviously in the 2-5 range consistently, but next year his contract will lead the League (however temporary that might be with regards to McDavid et al.) and while I'm aware he's already a major personal award winner, the Oilers are paying him to (co?)lead the League in categories en route to a hopeful Cup win on this contract.

If the argument that this is his possible retirement contract and it's payment for services and accomplishments already rendered, I don't know how I feel about that but it's good for players to get paid and he's far from the least deserving on the performance scale.

Draisaitl - 8.5mil AAV
MacKinnon - 12.6mil AAV
Kaprizov - 9mil AAV
Kucherov - 9.5mil AAV
Rantanen - 9.25mil AAV

So, Draisaitl earns less money than all of them, not the other way around. You're as wrong as it's possible to be wrong.

You might want to look again because Draisaitl is actually the lowest paid of all the players in the top 5 in scoring. He’s also the lowest paid player among the top 5 in goals too

He's amazing value at 8.5 obviously.

My point was in the first post, not in the reply - it's his next contract that doesn't quite deliver on value based on current and recent body of work, and to be clear I'm not just talking about cap%.

What do his stats need to be to satisfy your personal ritual?

Leading (or second to McDavid) for Art Ross/Rocket with some separation by mid-season from his peers wouldn't be too out of the question I hope, especially in the next 8 years, but to me the keyword is separation. Is that reasonable?

Who cares? OP didn’t say Draisaitl is leading the league in Points Per Dollar. OP said Draisaitl is having a great season, which he is.

Let's not cite my post like it's the furthest thing from being topically related. Performance metrics are always going to be assessed hand-in-hand with contract value in a salary cap league. I honestly have no idea why you bothered to reply other than your fingers were getting cold or trying to hit your daily post quota.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Let's not cite my post like it's the furthest thing from being topically related. Performance metrics are always going to be assessed hand-in-hand with contract value in a salary cap league. I honestly have no idea why you bothered to reply other than your fingers were getting cold or trying to hit your daily post quota.

I replied because your point is nonsensical. “[player] is having a great season” isn’t a statement about cap efficiency.

As to that last bit, if you don’t want a room full of people to roast your opinions, maybe be less loudly wrong next time.

 

[1989]

There certainly was nobody of that caliber before he came around (unless you count Erich Kühnhackl, who never really wanted to play NHL), but it isn't really true that no one comes close to him.

Tim Stützle has actually been tracking ahead of Draisaitl throughout their early careers, e.g. Stützle made it to 250 career points in 287 games while it took Draisaitl 305. He also should make it to 300 points before Draisaitl did. Afterwards it gets trickier, as this is around the time Draisaitl added another level.
Stützle does have a 90 point season at age 21 though, and he has also upped his offense again after he played with an injury for most of last season. He has also taken huge steps defensively. Even if he should fail to reach the heights Draisaitl has seen so far, he's still very much a franchise player in his own right, and does have the talent to grow even further.

The rest isn't quite at that level, but Seider is still a young high-end defenseman, and Peterka - even though he is in a slump right now - should be at the very least a 2nd line player, if not more, though obviously not franchise talent.


It's not that unusual for smaller nations to have a big star with little beyond that. Kopitar would be an obvious example, or Dirk Nowitzki in basketball.

I wasn't aware of Stutzle's comparative #s and how close they tracked but I think my point still stands especially as Stutzle entered the NHL in 2020, 2 years after Draisaitl established his first 100+ point season in 2018-2019. Again I just wonder what that feels like to be that far ahead of your home country's development programs but wanting to win all the time.

Not mentioning specific players/lines but IIRC Czechs, Finns, Swedes have obviously all had at least one if not two full lines' worth of star talent playing together on the international stage so it feels less lonely at the top.

Just food for thought and a question I'd love to ask him or others in similar situations.

 

[Czechboy]

Imagine the Avs if they replaced Makar with Bozak

Yup.. the replace your best player with Bozak metric.lol

Imagine if the Jets replaced Hellebyuck with Bozak. No way they'd be this good.lol

 

[Shanahanigans]

I disagree. In the three years before this, Draisaitl without McDavid hovered around 50% xGF%, and a decent but not great 52% GF% (compared to almost 60% xGF and GF with him). That sample is around 2500 minutes of 5v5 hockey.

This year he's at almost 57% xGF%. The Oilers are crushing teams when he's on the ice, with or without McDavid.

Interested to see what his numbers were the last 3 years with and without Ceci. I have a sneaking suspicion that it might have a big effect. Nurse, for example, has been a revelation this year without Ceci.

 

[Cloned]

Interested to see what his numbers were the last 3 years with and without Ceci. I have a sneaking suspicion that it might have a big effect. Nurse, for example, has been a revelation this year without Ceci.

But what if Nurse was paired with Bozak?