Player Discussion Leo Carlsson

[KelVarnsen]

It's already happening, look at Mac and Zegras in years four/five of their pro careers.

These guys used to be at the forefront of Anaheim's hope of a successful rebuild, and currently they're basically 40 point players learning to be "defensively responsible".

Cronin's idea that offense will magically appear once guys learn defense is producing a team that instead just sucks at both.

Cronin is killing the offensive development of our young players. It is so baffling to hear a NHL coach say offense just will happen naturally. That is crazy talk to me. The coach can absolutely make a difference in how a player develops on offense and Cronin is, IMO, killing our young guys. Like you said, he seems to want defensively responsible 40 point players and Leo is headed in that direction.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Getzlaf was taking regular shifts on the PK and got Selke votes at age 22.

Getz had years of physical development happen naturally to him before going pro. And when he did go pro, he proved himself first at the AHL. When he was promoted to the NHL, Getz wasn't put into a top line role, but worked his way from the bottom-6. Another aspect from Getzlaf that is missing from Carlsson was that Getzlaf was always playing center prior to being drafted. Carlsson was intermittently playing center at international stages and wing at the SHL level.

Carlsson has been rushed to the NHL without every establishing himself at center at a pro level as well as physical development - which is why he was on a "load mgmt" in his rookie season. This year, Cronin is more adamant about playing the defensive side in order to play a "counter offense" (we aren't a rush offense).

Let's compare and contrast Getz and Carlsson's early career after being drafted. Was Getz' offense sacrificed for defensive play? The answer is no.

 

[Mr Rogers]

To me it's less "defense is more important than offense" and more about instilling a "grinding" mindset in every player, from our stars to our 4th liners. Every FA signing and trade Pat has made points to that same mindset.

I really think Cronin is just some weird "boot camp" for what Pat sees as our core players to ingrain a "nobody is above back checking" mindset and high level of compete for the rest of their careers.

This is just me talking out of my ass and rationalizing the decisions made but honestly I kind of see the big picture working out. The decision to keep or fire Cronin at the end of this season I think will be really telling, in a lot of ways.

I think it’s a little smoke in mirrors sometimes what they are really trying to do. But there seems to be an undertone of defensive responsibility and playing the “right way” to everything. I just don’t think it’s the right approach with these types of players especially this early on.

Did Eakins ever push this on Terry? I don’t really think so, and he ended up being fine defensively.

 

[JAHV]

Third year in the league != age

The point is that these guys who are projected to be good two-way centers get put in defensive situations very early in their careers. Getzlaf was on the PK in his second year at age 21 at the latest. All the other guys I cited were out there even earlier. It's not uncommon and it's not detrimental to their careers.

I'm not saying I agree with the organizational philosophy to pound defense into their heads 1st, 2nd, and 3rd across the board. I don't know that a one size fits all approach is the way to go. But I think it's going to be a huge part of Carlsson's value as a player, so I'd love to see him get more opportunities there.

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

I think it’s a little smoke in mirrors sometimes what they are really trying to do. But there seems to be an undertone of defensive responsibility and playing the “right way” to everything. I just don’t think it’s the right approach with these types of players especially this early on.

Did Eakins ever push this on Terry? I don’t really think so, and he ended up being fine defensively.

I agree with you and also think there's only so much you can change in many players. That's why I think Cronin has to go at the end of the season if not sooner... You risk the "cure" being worse than the "disease."

Although I will say, Leason absolutely laid out Suzuki last night and there is NO way he would have gone for that hit a couple years ago. The guy used to be allergic to contact. So maybe there is some benefit.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

To me it's less "defense is more important than offense" and more about instilling a "grinding" mindset in every player, from our stars to our 4th liners. Every FA signing and trade Pat has made points to that same mindset.

I really think Cronin is just some weird "boot camp" for what Pat sees as our core players to ingrain a "nobody is above back checking" mindset and high level of compete for the rest of their careers.

This is just me talking out of my ass and rationalizing the decisions made but honestly I kind of see the big picture working out. The decision to keep or fire Cronin at the end of this season I think will be really telling, in a lot of ways.

You kinda contradicted yourself in your big picture.

Point 1. Less about "defense is more important than offense" and more of a "grinding" mentality.
Point 2. "Nobody is above backchecking"

That puts the emphasis on defense. Problem is that we have permitted far too many odd man situations last year and this year, but we are earning more points/wins.

Remember, Cronin said he cannot sacrifice from the defense to help supplement the offense. There are more than one way to generate team points. If we compare the Eakins' last year with the Ducks to Cronin's first year with the Ducks, then we see grinding takes precedence over how to win more games. Cronin was gifted two more offensive forwards in Killorn and Carlsson as well as a revamped blueline with the additions of RD Gudas, RD Lyubushkin, LD LaCombe, LD Minty, RD Luneau (to start the season), a healthy Vaak, and Zell (to end the season).

The biggest differences between last year and this year are two things: great goaltending and reduced amount of penalties (because our PK still sucks).

Goalie Comp: last year vs this year

 

[Leonardo87]

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Getzlaf was taking regular shifts on the PK and got Selke votes at age 22.

Barkov was playing semi-regularly short-handed at age 19 and was taking regular PK shifts by age 20. Kopitar as well. Crosby was playing regularly on the PK by age 20 and it didn't seem to hurt his production.

If Leo is projected to be a great all-around player (and, from all I've seen, he is), he should be playing in situations that allow him to develop his already very good defensive skills.

I see you edited your original post and added more to it.

Crosby's and Kopitar's offense were not sacrificed for defense.

Crosby

Kopitar

Barkov
He improved his scoring rate between his first two seasons.

Our Youth, 2-year comp
We see Carlsson's scoring rate drop. We see a lot of our youths scoring rates drop.

 

[Leonardo87]

Our Youth, 2-year comp
We see Carlsson's scoring rate drop. We see a lot of our youths scoring rates drop.
View attachment 971894

If one or two players were struggling would say it's mostly on them, when pretty much everyone has seen their numbers go down, it has to be the system and coaching, right?

I honestly would have loved to see Carlsson playing under Eakins. Just out of curiosity. I was on the fence with Eakins when he was let go. Cronin on the other hand, I don't want to see back next year. As always thanks for your efforts with these charts.

 

[TheDarkWingThatDucks]

I'm terrified that our development philosophy is going to churn out 40 point defensively responsible 3rd and 2nd overall players.

I’m MGMT’s defense, according to one Reddit user, who posted this, which I skimmed, because it was too much information apparently saying Ducks DO NOT equal championship caliber team, maybe the only way we win is defense first (like the Jets, who had 1 player @ 70+ pts last year, 3 in the 60’s. And then no one above 38 pts.

A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been do…

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Apparently this is saying we’ve already failed our rebuild and will never hit the proper war to be a “Cup Cotender”.

So making everyone a 3rd line plug might be the only way to win. Drag everyone down to how bad we are and beat them with experience.

But yeah according to this thingy, we don’t have enough talent on our roster to ever win a cup. So that’s exciting.

 

[2faded]

If one or two players were struggling would say it's mostly on them, when pretty much everyone has seen their numbers go down, it has to be the system and coaching, right?

I honestly would have loved to see Carlsson playing under Eakins. Just out of curiosity. I was on the fence with Eakins when he was let go. Cronin on the other hand, I don't want to see back next year. As always thanks for your efforts with these charts.

Yes. Statistically there's almost no chance everyone has a down year in the same year.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

I wonder if Cronin's "offense will just happen naturally" has something to do with how awful the PP has been both years with two different PP coaches. Here's a system, go put the puck in the net, it's what you do naturally?