Player Discussion Leo Carlsson

[AngelDuck]

My god, I just looked at Celebrinis, Bedards, and Fantillis totals for the year. Kill me.

It’s not great when compared to Carlsson. I will say that it might not ultimately matter as much as it sucks right now. There are examples of stars who weren’t very good until their D+3. Next year is a big year for him IMO. The excuses will be mostly out the window by then.

My concern is Carlsson being a Quinton Byfield type instead of a Sasha Barkov or a Tim Stuezle. We shall see

 

[LuGBuG]

Seriously. This should be pinned to the top of the thread.

It’s unbelievable the amount of “the panic for this player is ridiculous!” Comments there are here.

We’re allowed to be a bit critical of a player who was being compared to Celebrini, Bedard, and Fantilli by people on this board coming into the season.

I’m not saying he’s guaranteed to be worse than all those guys, but right now there is cause for some concern. Exceptional players are held to a higher standard than other guys

You are allowed. I’m also allowed to say I think the panic is ridiculous. Your opinion is no more valid than mine. You are worried. I am not.

 

[AngelDuck]

You are allowed. I’m also allowed to say I think the panic is ridiculous. Your opinion is no more valid than mine. You are worried. I am not.

Again, it’s not panic. It’s a slight concern for a player who’s underachieving by every measure right now.

But do your thing

 

[LuGBuG]

Again, it’s not panic. It’s a slight concern for a player who’s underachieving by every measure right now.

But do your thing

I will. Thank you for allowing me to do my thing.

 

[Kalv]

My god, I just looked at Celebrinis, Bedards, and Fantillis totals for the year. Kill me.

Zach Benson (sliiiightly) and Will Smith have more points as well

 

[Reveille1984]

I mean, was Leo ever really compared to the level of Bedard/Celebrini? Bedard almost had the same hype as Crosby, Fantilli/Carlsson were the "any other year they'd be 1OA" consolation prizes. And Celebrini basically had zero flaws in his game and is as much a "cant miss" 1C prospect as you'll find.

Carlsson was always going to be a project with his beanpole frame on top of getting used to U.S. ice and playstyle. His Verbeek bulking regimen on top of having a bit of an injury bug and lack of initial NHL success I'm sure aren't doing much for his confidence. You can tell with his negative body language and visible frustration this year on the ice that he isn't happy with his level of play.

Like others have said, I'm not necessarily worried or panicked that a guy who just turned 20 isn't playing well, even as a high level draft pick. I'm more concerned with how invisible he is on the ice in a lot of games. He doesn't really looks like a guy that's snakebitten or having some bad puck luck like we saw earlier this season with Gauthier. I honestly forget he's even in the game a lot of the time.

Similar to Minty I'm willing to write this off as a sophomore slump. Year three for him is where the needle moves from mild concern to low level panic.

 

[ScarTroy]

I’m really hoping he listens to Verbeek this summer and does bulk up, Verbeek might be a hard ass but he was right in that assessment. Hopefully with that extra strength and all that he can maybe find ways to finish better because he’s struggling terribly at that. Still most excited about him than any other player in the system, he’s just gotta work through this and he’ll be fine

 

[ohcomeonref]

It’s not great when compared to Carlsson. I will say that it might not ultimately matter as much as it sucks right now. There are examples of stars who weren’t very good until their D+3. Next year is a big year for him IMO. The excuses will be mostly out the window by then.

My concern is Carlsson being a Quinton Byfield type instead of a Sasha Barkov or a Tim Stuezle. We shall see

It's not even about the comparison so much for me with Bedard/Celebrini, it's the fact that it's pure dumb luck that we couldn't get either of them.

I’m really hoping he listens to Verbeek this summer and does bulk up, Verbeek might be a hard ass but he was right in that assessment. Hopefully with that extra strength and all that he can maybe find ways to finish better because he’s struggling terribly at that. Still most excited about him than any other player in the system, he’s just gotta work through this and he’ll be fine

100% this. When Carlsson is feeling it, it's magic.

 

[Mr Rogers]

Yeah a lot of Leo’s play this was year was just chalked up to linemates and his own snakebitteness.

He just isn’t strong enough and has a ton more to learn. When Leo sounded dismissive of what they told him to do in the offseason, I remember thinking “uh-oh”.

He is chiefly responsible for his low production, not bad luck or Alex Killorn.

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

Again.. Hes missed like 8 breakaways this year.. In close chances and many more... Confidence is an issue with him.. He can come in with speed.. It seems like to me.. He hesitates when approaching defenders.. And that is the difference between NHL and Lower levels. He second guesses himself and loses the puck.. Overthinking things.. Hes young... He will bounce back.. His major flaw is his Skinny tall body... He needs to add muscle asap.. Needs to work on finishing asap.. His body language as someone else pointed out.. Is not great... Hes over thinking things.. It will come.. In time.

 

[KelVarnsen]

I'm not panicking about him, but he has not had a good year, and I am concerned. We always talk about how he needs to bulk up but there are smaller, less heavy players his age who are doing better than he is.

I feel like Rev says in that he is pretty much invisible most games. I agree with him in that I don't really notice him doing things on the ice unless I specifically seek him out. He doesn't really have any impact on most games. I mean the Ducks have 16 goals in the last three games and he doesn't have a point and has taken 4 shots and played about 12 mins a game.

Hopefully PV trying to be the smartest guy in the room on draft day and not picking Fantilli doesn't haunt the Ducks.

 

[AngelDuck]

I’m not sure he was ever compared to Bedard by pundits that matter (although many on this board were of the mindset that Carlsson could be better than Bedard coming into the season)

He was absolutely compared to Celebrini though: there was talk that Carlsson/Fantilli/Celebrini were all on the same tier

 

[Mr Rogers]

I'm not panicking about him, but he has not had a good year, and I am concerned. We always talk about how he needs to bulk up but there are smaller, less heavy players his age who are doing better than he is.

I feel like Rev says in that he is pretty much invisible most games. I agree with him in that I don't really notice him doing things on the ice unless I specifically seek him out. He doesn't really have any impact on most games. I mean the Ducks have 16 goals in the last three games and he doesn't have a point and has taken 4 shots and played about 12 mins a game.

Hopefully PV trying to be the smartest guy in the room on draft day and not picking Fantilli doesn't haunt the Ducks.

Yeah that’s where I’m at too. Most of the time he’s not doing really anything, good or bad - just skates around for 16 minutes. It’s been like that most of the year

 

[ZegrassyKnoll]

I’m not sure he was ever compared to Bedard by pundits that matter (although many on this board were of the mindset that Carlsson could be better than Bedard coming into the season)

He was absolutely compared to Celebrini though: there was talk that Carlsson/Fantilli/Celebrini were all on the same tier

Celebrini has blown away expectations though. Although I did call it back in October that I thought Celebrini was going to come out flying.

Re: Leo, I actually agree with Cronin's recent take on him. I would be worried if he wasn't getting any chances, but he is. Finishing them feels like a mental hurdle that he'll have to get through - maybe he doesn't, but I'm confident he will.

Unlike these other players he's being compared to, Carlsson also has to adjust to the rink size and playing style of NA hockey, in addition to the increased volume of games. I think he will take a year or two longer than his comparables but will be fine.

 

[MCB]

A week or two ago I was concerned about McTavish, then all of a sudden he started clicking. It's why I'm not too concerned with Leo, do I wish he was firing on all cylinders? Of course, but he's also incredibly young and still figuring it out. If this production level continues all of next year then I'll raise my red flags and hit the panic button.

 

[lwvs84]

A week or two ago I was concerned about McTavish, then all of a sudden he started clicking. It's why I'm not too concerned with Leo, do I wish he was firing on all cylinders? Of course, but he's also incredibly young and still figuring it out. If this production level continues all of next year then I'll raise my red flags and hit the panic button.

Terry was getting tons of chances before he broke out too (at a much older age). Carlsson is getting his chances and has shown obvious skill. He just needs that last little bit to break out (confidence, experience, and maybe some more muscle).

 

[All Mighty]

Carlsson is due for some puck luck to go his way. His 5v5 on-ice shooting % (the percentage of Ducks' SOG that result in goals when Carlsson is on the ice at 5v5) is 5.65%. Not only is that easily the lowest on the team, but it is actually the 8th lowest in the NHL among forwards with at least 500 minutes in ice time. Now, part of that can be attributed to Leo's difficulty in finishing, but when the number is that low, it is usually driven by bad luck and it will most likely rebound over time. For reference, Carlsson's number was at about 7% last season, and the NHL average is typically between 8-9%. So yes, Carlsson does need to finish more chances, but it seems like few people are finishing their chances when Carlsson is on the ice.

 

[goosemooseduck]

Carlsson 5-on-5 shooting percentage is 11.3 percent. He has 10 points in 5-on-5. 6 goals and 4 assists through 44 games.
That's bad for a 2nd overall pick in his second season in NHL. One day he may be 40 points player, but not much more than that.
It is what it is...

 

[Mr Rogers]

I think the CTP guys were saying that some microstats were saying that Leo wasn’t getting the puck into dangerous areas. Is he even making passes that would result in high % shots? Maybe it’s not purely bad luck.

 

[goosemooseduck]

I think the CTP guys were saying that some microstats were saying that Leo wasn’t getting the puck into dangerous areas. Is he even making passes that would result in high % shots? Maybe it’s not purely bad luck.

No, it's not bad luck. He's less physical than in his first season. He's floating like his name is Fowler.
And that translates being worse in almost every metric.

 

[Mr Rogers]

No, it's not bad luck. He's less physical than in his first season. He's floating like his name is Fowler.
And that translates being worse in almost every metric.

I think he’ll much more than a 40 point guy but yes he’s been worse this year for sure both in the raw stats and the advanced stats. The bad luck motif is just another excuse like linemates, coaching etc.

 

[Terry Yake]

No, it's not bad luck. He's less physical than in his first season. He's floating like his name is Fowler.
And that translates being worse in almost every metric.

wonder if that head injury he suffered earlier in the season is to blame for that

 

[KelVarnsen]

I think he’ll much more than a 40 point guy but yes he’s been worse this year for sure both in the raw stats and the advanced stats. The bad luck motif is just another excuse like linemates, coaching etc.

The “needs to bulk up” excuse doesn’t play that well for me either because there are players from his draft class that are smaller that are playing better. Not saying he doesn’t need to get stronger because of course it will help. Just saying it’s seems like an excuse to me to try and explain his poor season. I’ve come up with my own excuses for him as well lol.

I think the head injury may have made him softer. I don’t think he is all that physical to begin with but the head injury seems to have made him a little bit of a floater. I hope he overcomes it. He better or it will really hinder the Ducks rebuild.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Just for the record, nothing about sports panics me. I save my panic for real world situations that affect me while making every effort to try and minimize it.

That said, I expected Leo to actually make some progress by now and not just rely on the fact that we have seen flashes of brilliance so therefore he will be fine. That's the same evaluation we had on draft day. I expected to see some visible improvement by now.

 

[Mr Rogers]

The “needs to bulk up” excuse doesn’t play that well for me either because there are players from his draft class that are smaller that are playing better. Not saying he doesn’t need to get stronger because of course it will help. Just saying it’s seems like an excuse to me to try and explain his poor season. I’ve come up with my own excuses for him as well lol.

I think the head injury may have made him softer. I don’t think he is all that physical to begin with but the head injury seems to have made him a little bit of a floater. I hope he overcomes it. He better or it will really hinder the Ducks rebuild.

Yeah I agree. Especially since he is probably at least somewhat stronger this year than last and played better last year.

At this point, Leo’s performance last year is why I’m very confident in him still. Similar to McTavish earlier in the year, these guys have shown to be quality players previously. I think the disagreement always is around how people think Leo has been this year and why his production is low.