Leo Carlsson since Feb: 21gp 10g 23p +13

[HanSolo]

For sure, still decent sample and good results, seeing as it's the most recent sample of games, but I tend to be cautious about this type of thing, especially when there are 6 guys from that draft that have even played in the NHL so far and he's currently 4th in scoring from that group overall this year.....yes, slow start and the last 20 games have been great.

When I say only 6 guys, I mean regulars, there are a few others that have played like 1, 2 or a few games.

The relevance is Leo's participation at the Four Nations as a benchmark. Prior to the tournament, Leo was in a mental and statistical funk. Assuming all else is equal with the other 2023 draftees, using that starting point for the statistical trend-if nothing else-highlights what a restorative turning point it was for Leo to spend two weeks with elite Swedish talent and the NT's coaching staff.

If nothing else, the experience seems to have restored Leo's confidence, though I would play devil's advocate to the Ducks' coaching staff, he was starting to play better in the 4-6 games before the 4N.

Edit: just to make a different point than @Ducks DVM I don't think this heater Leo has been on should be used to make any sweeping declarations that Leo is better than the other 23 draftees in the league right now. They're all still developing and it's anyone's guess who will end up the best. Ducks fans and the organization would be thrilled if Leo can put up superstar 1c numbers while playing great D, but we'll see how everything shakes out. I think the big takeaway is Leo is not falling behind his draft class peers. He had a rough first half of the season but it's starting to click for him and he's right up there with anyone else in the class.

 

[HanSolo]

He came back from the 4 Nations thing a different player. His confidence, decision making, positioning on the ice, and how he was using his linemates all changed. It’s not just a hot streak, he went from looking like a tentative young player to a confident NHL player.

Someone said something to him that flipped a switch.

Lol we post the same point at the same time an eerie amount between this and the Ducks board GDTs

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Michkov is probably the best bet for top scorer of d the group, assuming he gets a bigger role. But I would probably put my money on Carlsson to have the best all around season.

I could see all of them breaking out for 70+ point seasons though.

We actually starting to have some weapons.... hopefully PV can find a top 6 winger/face off specialist in offseason.

Team should be fighting for a playoff spot next year.


I dont know how the PP is so bad.

 

[zegrassyknoll]

Leo is also starting to kill penalties now and watching him on the PK has become more exciting than watching our PP.

I don't watch the other 3 players he's being compared with very often, so can't comment on them. But I think there will come a time when Leo (like Getzlaf before him and LaCombe currently) is a player that will be thrown out in the high-pressure moments where we either need a goal or need to prevent one, which is a great quality to have.

 

[FiveTacos]

For sure, still decent sample and good results, seeing as it's the most recent sample of games, but I tend to be cautious about this type of thing, especially when there are 6 guys from that draft that have even played in the NHL so far and he's currently 4th in scoring from that group overall this year.....yes, slow start and the last 20 games have been great.

Well the nature of young guys is to be inconsistent. I'm sure they'll each have stretches of production mixed with some periods of struggles.

That said, 20+ games is about a quarter of a season, where I start to think of it as the minimum sample size to be significant. If he, McTavish, Zegras, and Gauthier continue this play to finish out the year, they have every right to feel good heading into the off-season.

And the fact that he's producing as the primary guy on his line is especially encouraging.

 

[HanSolo]

Really glad he's finding his groove. Was my favourite player from the 2023 draft, had him right behind Bedard. Saw him a Barkov type. A big smooth skating 2 way center who can put up 90+pts in his prime? Yes please. I think he might even put up 100 points in a season depending on the linemates.

I'm still holding onto hope that he and Cutter Gauthier develop natural Getzlaf-Perry esque chemistry. Leo as the playmaker with goal scoring ability, Cutter the sniper with above average set up passing. They're both nearly identical in skating speed and speed bursts over 18mph (according to NHL edge) so they're a natural fit with each other and (at least according to Cutter) they're friends off the ice. They just need to grow that sense of where the other is going to be for set ups. It's still in development for the time being.

 

[SmokeyDuck]

PP is one of the main reasons for that. They are like around a 12% rate. It’s mind-boggling how with all this skill they can’t execute a decent PP.

Ducks forwards have probably lost at least 20-25% of their production because of that.

To put things in better perspective, Carlsson has 31 points at ES, Bedard has 32 and has played at least a half a dozen more games with a lot more ice time than Leo.

A terrible PP and being the worst faceoff team really has limited our offense.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Kid is an absolute unit. A rare “prototype 1C” prospect. Highest potential from that draft for sure.

Upside could anywhere from Sundin to Barkov to Kopitar.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Kid is an absolute unit. A rare “prototype 1C” prospect. Highest potential from that draft for sure.

Upside could anywhere from Sundin to Barkov to Kopitar.

I see some Geno in his game too.

 

[Garbageyuk]

I see some Geno in his game too.

Stylistically in terms of offense, sure I can see it. Not sure if he’ll ever get to quite that level offensively, but I think he could get close enough, with a better defensive game on top. I think his upside could be 80-90 points with Selke level, or close defense.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Carlsson is such a treat to watch. He’s so dynamic on the ice and almost never cheat defensively either. He’s the whole package

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

Had the draft Bedard / Michkov 1/2, and Carlsson over Fantilli still wouldn’t change it. Carlsson is going to be a 2-way monster.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Had the draft Bedard / Michkov 1/2, and Carlsson over Fantilli still wouldn’t change it. Carlsson is going to be a 2-way monster.

There is no universe where Michkov is taken ahead of Carlsson or Fantilli in a re-draft. You can make a case for drafting Michkov over Smith but 1-3 doesn’t change.

 

[FiveTacos]

Edit: just to make a different point than @Ducks DVM I don't think this heater Leo has been on should be used to make any sweeping declarations that Leo is better than the other 23 draftees in the league right now. They're all still developing and it's anyone's guess who will end up the best.

Yeah, a guy developing quicker doesn't mean he'll be better. I mean, Jimmy Carson scored 141 goals his first 3 years right after the draft ... and only scored 134 the rest of his career.

A lot of guys don't even fully blossom until their mid 20's. These guys are only 19-20 years old, there's a long way to go. But his progression this year is certainly exciting. Ducks fans can legitimately say that in the last two months they've seen what might be a potential 1C (Leo), 1D (Lacombe), and 2C (McTavish) all developing at once. That's every rebuilding team's dream. We'll see if they can continue this high to finish the season.

There is no universe where Michkov is taken ahead of Carlsson or Fantilli in a re-draft. You can make a case for drafting Michkov over Smith but 1-3 doesn’t change.

Well maybe a universe where there had been no uncertainty about the Russia thing. No way a team at 2 or 3 could take that chance when you had a guy like Fantilli or Carlsson available. But remove that uncertainty, I could see someone liking Michkov enough to go for him at 2.

I mean really, there were four 1OA caliber talents in that draft. Crazy.

 

[HanSolo]

Yeah, a guy developing quicker doesn't mean he'll be better. I mean, Jimmy Carson scored 141 goals his first 3 years right after the draft ... and only scored 134 the rest of his career.

A lot of guys don't even fully blossom until their mid 20's. These guys are only 19-20 years old, there's a long way to go. But his progression this year is certainly exciting. Ducks fans can legitimately say that in the last two months they've seen what might be a potential 1C (Leo), 1D (Lacombe), and 2C (McTavish) all developing at once. That's every rebuilding team's dream. We'll see if they can continue this high to finish the season.



Well maybe a universe where there had been no uncertainty about the Russia thing. No way a team at 2 or 3 could take that chance when you had a guy like Fantilli or Carlsson available. But remove that uncertainty, I could see someone liking Michkov enough to go for him at 2.

I mean really, there were four 1OA caliber talents in that draft. Crazy.

I'd argue a 1LW I Gauthier too but that's more vibes than anything. He's certainly come a long way from how he looked at the beginning of the season.

 

[Fatass]

With Carlsson and McTavish proving to be the Duck’s top centres, where does that leave Zegras? Can they play Zegras ahead of young guys who are clearly better and keep the room’s respect? Will Zegras be happy in a 3C role?

 

[FiveTacos]

With Carlsson and McTavish proving to be the Duck’s top centres, where does that leave Zegras? Can they play Zegras ahead of young guys who are clearly better and keep the room’s respect? Will Zegras be happy in a 3C role?

For these last two seasons, when he's been at LW he's struggled to produce points, while at C he still paced at nearly his 60 pt level.

But during this recent stretch he's still at wing yet is pacing close to his old scoring rate at C. We already knew he can be a 60 point player ... we just haven't known if he could be that at LW. He's starting to show that he can.

And as good as Leo and McTavish have been, I still think Zegras creates more chances, even recently. Just for whatever reason guys aren't finishing his passes ... Just the other night McTavish did an eye roll after scoring unassisted because he was annoyed with himself for not cashing in on the 3-4 much better chances Zegras had set him up with earlier in the game. Zegras has 9 points in his last 11 ... If his linemates had finished just a tiny bit better, he'd be on a point per game tear himself.

 

[Terry Yake]

How would you all rank

Bedard
Carlsson
Fantilli
Smith
Michkov
And for curiosity sake Celebrini

Break into tiers if you perceive tiers present.

celebrini
michkov
bedard

fantilli/carlsson
smith

 

[majormajor]

I don't think it's crazy at all to prefer Leo to Bedard or to put Leo #1 in the 2023 class. He's got superstar upside and I'm more certain of his high floor than I am of Bedard's.

Can't teach size which both have with plenty of skill. Just took a bit longer to adapt. Both players offer so much more than just flashy offense and points.

Fantilli? No he is at this point just flashy offense and points. He's just beginning to learn how to cycle and control play. He loves to race ahead at full speed and ignore his linemates. I think he'll figure it out eventually. And he's so incredibly gifted that you can play him at center. But he's not a natural #1C in the way I think Leo is.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I don't think it's crazy at all to prefer Leo to Bedard or to put Leo #1 in the 2023 class. He's got superstar upside and I'm more certain of his high floor than I am of Bedard's.

I think it's probably crazier to take Bedard over Carlsson at this point. Bedard may end up the better offensive player, but Carlsson's 200 foot game is so far ahead it's insane.

Like, I'm taking a Barkov / Kopitar / Malkin hybrid over Patrick Kane any day. And I'm a huge Kane fan.

 

[LuGBuG]

With Carlsson and McTavish proving to be the Duck’s top centres, where does that leave Zegras? Can they play Zegras ahead of young guys who are clearly better and keep the room’s respect? Will Zegras be happy in a 3C role?

Zegras has been on McTavish wing. It’s been really good. Hope it’s that way for a long long time. At this time I also don’t think any young guys is clearly better then Z either. Leo just starting to get there. Next season will be the most interesting season for Ducks fans in a long long time.

 

[Gliff]

I think it's probably crazier to take Bedard over Carlsson at this point. Bedard may end up the better offensive player, but Carlsson's 200 foot game is so far ahead it's insane.

Like, I'm taking a Barkov / Kopitar / Malkin hybrid over Patrick Kane any day. And I'm a huge Kane fan.

I think it's way too early for either way to be considered "crazy".

I will say, having a 6'3 1st line center that has the skating ability Leo has is so nice. Especially when you think of him with Cutter and Sennecke. If Sennecke turns into that 1st line RW then that line is going to be insanely skilled, fast, and HUGE. 6'4, 6'3, and 6'2. Carlsson and Sennecke are both still bean poles and already almost 200 lbs.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think it's way too early for either way to be considered "crazy".

I will say, having a 6'3 1st line center that has the skating ability Leo has is so nice. Especially when you think of him with Cutter and Sennecke. If Sennecke turns into that 1st line RW then that line is going to be insanely skilled, fast, and HUGE. 6'4, 6'3, and 6'2. Carlsson and Sennecke are both still bean poles and already almost 200 lbs.

Of course things can change, but it's getting really hard to find reasons to think Bedard is going to be the better, more impactful player long term. Carlsson has the size, 200 foot game, and skating ability that Bedard just doesn't ever project to have. While having elite offensive toolbox in his own right.

 

[Gliff]

Of course things can change, but it's getting really hard to find reasons to think Bedard is going to be the better, more impactful player long term. Carlsson has the size, 200 foot game, and skating ability that Bedard just doesn't ever project to have. While having elite offensive toolbox in his own right.

You're not wrong, but they are 20. A lot can change. 3 monthys ago before Carlsson went on this run and before Bedard had this cold streak the conversation would be different.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

With Carlsson and McTavish proving to be the Duck’s top centres, where does that leave Zegras? Can they play Zegras ahead of young guys who are clearly better and keep the room’s respect? Will Zegras be happy in a 3C role?

Been playing off the wing... hes been solid after coming back from injury.

Dont think were really in any rush to ship him out (unless were using him as part of a trade package for a bigger name).... but he still creates a lot of chances, the points will come(theyve already started too)... we just got to wait and see how he transitions to winger.