The sens consistently sold out from the mid 2000’s to like 2018. You don’t need to do a demographic study to prove that we are by and large a fair weather hockey town. When the team is good, 19,000 in the rink. When the team is bad or meh closer to 13-14,000. The secret isn’t more people, it’s a winning product.
A downtown rink will attract more corporate seats too. Kanata was ok for defense contractors and some mid sized tech. But the lions share of the financial and services sector is downtown. So that will put a higher floor under season tickets.
I work downtown, and plan to get 4 seasons tickets because by the time the rink is built I can just ask my kids to take the train and meet me after work. The idea of a mid-week game right now is logistically impossible for me.
Also not tied to population, is tourism. A downtown arena will attract more random tourist walk-ups. The average European or American won’t travel to Kanata because they have to pack in a day of museums/parliament and getting grifted in the market and the bus is off-putting to them. If they can get a dinner and game to cap that action packed day off, I think that boosts walk-ups substantially.
Lastly I think we see a huge spike in Gatineau attendance. The people who can be at the rink the fastest (other than the crooked yellow condo building weirdos or the folks at the very north end of Chinatown and little Italy) are the Zibi folks and those in old Hull. Can walk down and stagger home.