Post-Game Talk: Leafs Win 4-1 | "Corsi Enthusiasts Hate Them!"

[Diatomic]

Hey guys, I am a little late coming out of the shadows on this part. But who (or what?) is Corsi?

You don't want to know.. It'll ruin your life

 

[crump]

At what point does success in the face of corsi stop becoming a blip and start becoming plain reality.

Is a small sample size 5 games? 10 games? 20 games? 60 games? A full season?

Nobody is going to argue the Leafs are winning ugly, but those timely goals are world class and not all going in off rear ends. Something has to be said for chemistry, special teams, individual effort and goaltending, all part of a team as well. When the other aspects come together, like defensive play, possession and better shot totals, this team will be outrageous.

 

[Pyrophorus]

Wild may have one of the best PP in the League but the Leafs have got to have one of the best PK in the League.

The Wild having the #27 kill in the league was the difference.

 

[Stats01]

At what point does success in the face of corsi stop becoming a blip and start becoming plain reality.

Is a small sample size 5 games? 10 games? 20 games? 60 games? A full season?

Nobody is going to argue the Leafs are winning ugly, but those timely goals are world class and not all going in off rear ends. Something has to be said for chemistry, special teams, individual effort and goaltending, all part of a team as well. When the other aspects come together, like defensive play, possession and better shot totals, this team will be outrageous.

Teams that win ugly are good teams. I don't care if it's pretty or the ugliest game you've ever seen as long as we win I'm happy. No one should be complaining about wins. Especially other fans from other teams who just like to come up with a bunch of B.S excuses. That's all I read on here s a bunch of B.S excuses and whining and complaining. Corsi can suck it! **** advanced stats or whatever you want to call it, this is a damn good team. We finished 5th in the East last year and now we're just continuing on with a 6-1 start. There is nothing about luck with our wins.

 

[Pyrophorus]

Really impressed with Leivo. Reminds me of Frattin.

That's what I say, and younger too, came through the O

 

[SteveV*]

I believe in the math too, the final score and the record

 

[Stephen]

Not that I believe in Corsi, let's all remember that we are only 7 games in and if we can't post 20 shots, we aren't going to win many games.

I'm happy about the win though but we still haven't dominated as a team yet (too manyninjuries imo). No big problem as we have a soft schedule right now, but in December it's gonna be go time.

We're missing JVR, Kulemin and Clarkson right now up front, McLaren's muscle and Fraser potentially if he's dressed on the blueline, so I think it's fine if they're winning in ugly fashion.

 

[Warden of the North]

Hey guys, I am a little late coming out of the shadows on this part. But who (or what?) is Corsi?

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...use-corsi-who-is-corsi-don-cherry-hates-corsi

People hate us because we're defying Corsi. In fact, we defy most advanced stats. We played with a poor corsi all last year too.

 

[SteveV*]

There is also this scientific thing called "chemistry", never discount that one corsi nation.

 

[Budsfan]

Hey guys, I am a little late coming out of the shadows on this part. But who (or what?) is Corsi?

Corsi Numbers

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2...use-corsi-who-is-corsi-don-cherry-hates-corsi

A player's Corsi Number is just the sum of all shots directed by a team towards the opposition net (shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots), minus the sum of all shots directed by the opposition towards your team's net. For an individual player the Corsi number is just the value determined while they are on the ice.

Understanding Advanced Stats, Part One: Corsi and Fenwick

http://www.matchsticksandgasoline.c...tanding-advanced-stats-part-one-corsi-fenwick

Corsi: the most popular advanced stat in the hockey blogosphere, Corsi is a possession metric developed by former Buffalo Sabres goaltending coach Jim Corsi. At its most basic level, Corsi is the plus/minus amount of shots directed at a net while at even strength-blocked shots, shots high and wide, shots that hit, shots that get tipped, etc. A player who has a positive Corsi has more shots directed towards the opponents net while he is on the ice at even strength then shots directed towards his own net under the same criteria. All 10 players on the ice are used when calculating this metric.

Fenwick: Named for Battle of Alberta writer Matt Fenwick, Fenwick is almost the exact same as Corsi, but it doesn't count blocked shots-the reason for this is that it is entirely possible that blocking shots is a skill, and not just a series of random events.

Why Only Even Strength?

First, because about 75% of the shots taken over the course of an NHL season are at even strength. Second, the amount of PP and PK shots directed towards the net generally cancel each other out over the course of a season, rendering them unnecessary for calculations. Besides, a team is expected to bleed shots when down a man and vice versa. (Edit: It's more individual then anything. Someone who is a PK specialist but never features on the PP would be unduly penalized by the stat. Thanks for bringing that up, Mike.)

 

[Daisy Jane]

Damn right!! What a shift is right. Holy **** Lupul went into beast mode, that was all him on that goal pretty much.

it is always awesome when he goes into beast mode. he just like gets this look on his face like 'this team is NOT going to lose today."

Centre Ice Scrum/Crump/Stats01:

I think it is because then a lot of people will had to admit this team is pretty darn good. It's starting make me an angry panda here, because at the end of the day, someone needs to ask "who cares." who cares if the games aren't won prettily? (where did that get Pittsburgh last year)? Who cares if we get outshot all the time?

I mean - when the team was outshooting everything in sight - they'd lose. and then Wilson would go "oh, the shots were there, but we ran into a hot goaltender." I bet you anything if Corsi was as popular five years ago as it was now - we'd probably have the highest corsi of all time.

but Crump said it - it's not like all these goals are bouncing off their feet, or butts and "Oh look, we out scored them. how did THAT HAPPEN." as of yesterday's game our we average about 3.58 (apprx) a game.

that's pretty much what our goals per game was LAST YEAR (but apparently it's unsustainable).

People are freaking out because oh my god! Lupul can't be a PPG (what was that crazy stat? 92 goals in like 125 games or something bizarro-crazy) since he's played here? (or like 23 goals in 32 games the past season and 7 games if we want to narrow it down).

but! that can't be sustained!

I tell you we could have Malkin and Crosby and people will find a way to minimize what they do.

 

[Chandrashekhar Limit]

#3 PP, #3 PK, #4 G/G, #7 GA/G, #5 Team SV%

Those are the reasons we are winning. Once the possession numbers, and thus shots, improve, we will be tough to stop.

We aren't easy to stop now anyways, but imagine where this team will be if we can improve those

Hope to god we can keep all 4 of Phaneuf, Franson, Gardiner and Bolland past this year.

 

[Chandrashekhar Limit]

We need to make an October Playoff Push avatar theme

Or one mocking advanced stats.

 

[Daisy Jane]

#3 PP, #3 PK, #4 G/G, #7 GA/G, #5 Team SV%

Those are the reasons we are winning. Once the possession numbers, and thus shots, improve, we will be tough to stop.

We aren't easy to stop now anyways, but imagine where this team will be if we can improve those

Hope to god we can keep all 4 of Phaneuf, Franson, Gardiner and Bolland past this year.

I thought our PK was 2nd?
(not quibbling, that's just what i thought i heard).

 

[Chandrashekhar Limit]

5. If kessel had touched the puck i would have been pissed. He didn't deserve that goal. Kessel was dogging it all night long. Pretty pathetic effort from him.

He wasn't dogging it last night. He had Ryan Suter, and Jonas Brodin on his ass all night. That is one of the best D pairs in the entire league, with whom I believe to be the best dman in the league (Suter).

Without JVR, it's pretty obvious where all the shut down effort is gonna go on that line. Games like these really let you see the worth of JVR. His big body, and strength would have really helped us down low, and create space for Kessel. Minny is lucky we were missing our 3 best board players.

 

[Chandrashekhar Limit]

I thought our PK was 2nd?
(not quibbling, that's just what i thought i heard).

Nope, it's 3rd. I got the stats 15 mins ago from NHL.com. Unless there's been a game already of course

 

[Raging Bull]

Amazing how guys who regularly PK like Fraser, Kulemin, and JVR are absent, and the PK doesn't miss a beat. Great seeing Kadri out there.

 

[htpwn]

I mean - when the team was outshooting everything in sight - they'd lose. and then Wilson would go "oh, the shots were there, but we ran into a hot goaltender." I bet you anything if Corsi was as popular five years ago as it was now - we'd probably have the highest corsi of all time.

Actually, if I recall the arguments made on the main board correctly, we did have a high Corsi.

However the reason we didn't make the playoffs was apparently "bad goaltending."

... which we did have. Terrible goaltending. But we also had a first line of Ponikarovsky/Stajan/Hagman or something to that extent. Those were not playoff teams unless we had a prime Patrick Roy in net, and even then...

You know what is bad luck though? We missed the playoffs in 2006 and 2007 by a single point in each year IIRC. We needed one bounce of the puck in two years to make the playoffs. One lucky bounce and didn't get it. So, if we are lucky here, is there a reason to be worried? We have like a decade... or four... of bad luck to burn through.

 

[Damisoph]

What a TEAM.

Period. Game.

Nobody can beat us. They try now and can't beat us. They won't beat us five games from now ether. Other teams are worse than us. We are the hardest team in the league.

Reeks of troll.

Reims was on last night, kept us in it in the first and the third. Three more games and Clarkson comes back.

 

[Minnesota]

Who the heck shoots from so far out?

Looking for rebounds, most likely.

 

[7even]

Actually, if I recall the arguments made on the main board correctly, we did have a high Corsi.

However the reason we didn't make the playoffs was apparently "bad goaltending."

... which we did have. Terrible goaltending. But we also had a first line of Ponikarovsky/Stajan/Hagman or something to that extent. Those were not playoff teams unless we had a prime Patrick Roy in net, and even then...

You know what is bad luck though? We missed the playoffs in 2006 and 2007 by a single point in each year IIRC. We needed one bounce of the puck in two years to make the playoffs. One lucky bounce and didn't get it. So, if we are lucky here, is there a reason to be worried? We have like a decade... or four... of bad luck to burn through.

Ayup. Those teams were playoff teams if we had even league average goaltending. How we're playing right now would absolutely not work if we didn't have superb goalies.

We need to make an October Playoff Push avatar theme

Or one mocking advanced stats.

Like the Jordan Eberle "Unsustainable" ones? That's bad voodoo man.

 

[CellarDweller0]

We need to make an October Playoff Push avatar theme

Or one mocking advanced stats.

How is this one?

 

[Disgruntled Observer*]

Corsi isn't supposed to stand on it's own.
You're supposed to look at Corsi, and assess it together with other statistics/observations.

The leafs have terrible possession/Corsi ratings. It's pretty much common sense that if you possess the puck far more often, have far more shots, and allow far less shots... you'll probably win more often.

If your Corsi rating is very low, but you're still winning, you need to look at other statistics and try to assess why.
And it's very obvious with the leafs. Bernier up till recently was putting up numbers that if kept constant over the whole season, would be the best statistics in all of world history.

If you believe that Bernier will continue to put up the best statistics ever in all world history, then you have nothing to worry about. The Corsi rankings won't matter. Not with goaltending like that.

But if you think that it's possible that Bernier's statistics may drop from the best EVER to a more reasonable level... well... thats' when the weaknesses in the team exposed by the Corsi ratings may come back to haunt us.

I personally think that our goaltending will come back down to earth... but our Corsi ratings will improve. This I think will balance out to us being a pretty strong team that started the season with a bit more points then they deserved.

 

[Clark4Ever]

At what point does success in the face of corsi stop becoming a blip and start becoming plain reality.

Is a small sample size 5 games? 10 games? 20 games? 60 games? A full season?

Nobody is going to argue the Leafs are winning ugly, but those timely goals are world class and not all going in off rear ends. Something has to be said for chemistry, special teams, individual effort and goaltending, all part of a team as well. When the other aspects come together, like defensive play, possession and better shot totals, this team will be outrageous.

I agree. The problem is that analytics doesn't measure the intangibles, which are more impactful in hockey than in any other sport.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I agree. The problem is that analytics doesn't measure the intangibles, which are more impactful in hockey than in any other sport.

Leave those advanced to Baseball (I like baseball, btw).