Post-Game Talk: Leafs win 2-1 in OT

[Zybalto]

That was indeed a big blow. I know many people seems to think that "the cap is the same for everyone" etc. but not true at all.

What I wanted to do was to shop Marner after losing to MTL. Imagine the return we might have gotten for a water bug coming off a 1st team all-star season who was under contract for 4 more years (granted, with a massive cap hit) and how different the playoffs might have been with say a #1D, or maybe a couple of #2-3 guys or WE in his place. I mean you never know, maybe we even win the cup at some point. A bit of a stretch you say? Sure it is but I'm just trying to be "optimistic".

For sure,

Even if we wanted to trade him, he's going to stand out with no equivalent contracts being signed under uncertainty.

All of our flexibility was gone when the flat cap hit. We could have gone out and gotten Pietro and kept Marner if we wanted. Its impact on the cap structure deserved more press.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

What quality players have we lost? Woll is the only one I can think of.

I have no idea. I tried googling this morning but couldn't find the numbers but I'd be surprised if that was the case, unless everyone else has been super healthy?

The only injuries that mattered much to me are Liljegren and Woll. Jones stepped up in net so I don't see much impact there so not a big deal overall. I mean sure Klinberg impacts the numbers but he was pretty bad so we might be better off without him. Our big guns have been healthy, I just don't know.


Liljegren is the only other one I can think of.

Woll and Lily are the biggest of course, but all the other D injuries/suspensions have added up even if we think they weren't huge losses. For forwards, mainly Jarnkrok I believe

This is as of Mar 1. The other good teams have been relatively healthy

 

[mjd1001]

They won, so its good. 2 points matter now.
Buffalo is a team the Leafs don't match up well against, and they are a team starting to 'get it' in terms of playing team defense and their goaltending. It was a 'good' win, take it and on to the next game(s).

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

tell me you know very little about things without telling me you know very little about things

Ontario Respiratory Virus Tool | Public Health Ontario

This tool provides comprehensive epidemiological information of respiratory virus activity in Ontario, including COVID-19, influenza and other respiratory viruses. Explore case trends, laboratory testing, and outbreaks, as well as COVID-19 outcomes and vaccination.

www.publichealthontario.ca

Ok, let's look at the top three viruses by test positivity rate:

Seasonal Human coronavirus 8.1%
COVID-19 7.0%
Influenza A 6.4%

Thanks for the brilliant insights as always, Craig.

Also it's best not to think about how like half of the roster was sick with a mysterious unnamed "illness" back in January. Maybe they all had measles.

 

[Racer88]

There's a few upsides to this season....

Matthews has been better this year and Nylander is having a career year.

The team itself has more jam and character.

The D is far tougher to play against.

If they can just sort out the 2nd/3rd lines and more importantly, if Tre can get off his ass at the deadline, this team can make some noise for sure. If he only does some minor thing and blows a prime year away I'll be pissed.

The big problem is that we will likely go against a team with a possible vezina winner for this year as the starter and last year's winner as the backup while starting either a rookie or a guy that crapped out of the league this year.

You know my feeling on this though....and yes I'm still hopeful.

It's part of being a fan right?

If Swayman does win the Vezina, it will make things more comical (2 in one series)in that we will have faced an average of 1 Vezina winning goalie for every playoff series during the Matthews era lol.

That would have to be some kind of record.

I agree about the goalies. To bad our previous GM from the last 5 years hadn’t spent a little more effort in the goalie department instead of treating it like an afterthought
I’m not a Treliving fan but I’m not sure how much of this he can fix at the deadline

 

[arso40]

4th line looks different without holmberg on it especially with gregor in his place that guys iq is low and his team game needs work

 

[Racer88]

For sure,

Even if we wanted to trade him, he's going to stand out with no equivalent contracts being signed under uncertainty.

All of our flexibility was gone when the flat cap hit. We could have gone out and gotten Pietro and kept Marner if we wanted. Its impact on the cap structure deserved more press.

All or flexibly was gone when they signed Tavares. Flat cap or not no other team had a cap allocation like the Leafs.

 

[Racer88]

Vegas runs a team that is the envy of the league, they know how to build a winner and have been competitive every year if their existance. Who else is jealous of this fact……..

I’m very jealous of them and disgusted at the same time

 

[Racer88]

That was indeed a big blow. I know many people seems to think that "the cap is the same for everyone" etc. but not true at all.

What I wanted to do was to shop Marner after losing to MTL. Imagine the return we might have gotten for a water bug coming off a 1st team all-star season who was under contract for 4 more years (granted, with a massive cap hit) and how different the playoffs might have been with say a #1D, or maybe a couple of #2-3 guys or WE in his place. I mean you never know, maybe we even win the cup at some point. A bit of a stretch you say? Sure it is but I'm just trying to be "optimistic".

I agree that the cap was not the same for everyone but every team made a choice on how to allocate their cap and Dubas choose a model that hadn’t ever been done befor and it burned us when the cap went flat. To further compound that disaster none of Leafs management has ever dealt with. They are paralyzed with fear

 

[NHLInjuryViz]

What I had for games missed to injury/illness through 1 March (not counting the retired Muzzin):

59 Murray
45 Klingberg
35 Woll
27 Timmins
19 Liljegren
18 Reaves
13 Giordano Järnkrok
6 McCabe
4 Lagesson
3 Kämpf
2 Jones Knies Samsonov Tavares
1 Brodie Gregor Marner Matthews McMann

They do come out as top 3 worst hit under a WAR-weighted measure I use, as summarised in a post above, but I’d suggest it’s more than a bit misleading. Biggest contributors to that are Woll (maybe fair enough but still a pretty small sample size of results getting extrapolated here), Murray (not wanted anyway?) and Timmins (also a smallish sample likely overvaluing his true worth).

Same measure for Vegas (skewed by Lehner and multiple goalie absences) and Colorado (Landeskog and Francouz) also a bit inflated, to be fair.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I agree that the cap was not the same for everyone but every team made a choice on how to allocate their cap and Dubas choose a model that hadn’t ever been done befor and it burned us when the cap went flat. To further compound that disaster none of Leafs management has ever dealt with. They are paralyzed with fear

If the cap didn't go flat though, maybe we have a cup by now. We'll never know but I agree on the paralyzed with fear part, they could have pivoted and moved Marner (for example) after losing to MTL, staying the course sure as shit hasn't worked out well.

 

[Racer88]

If the cap didn't go flat though, maybe we have a cup by now. We'll never know but I agree on the paralyzed with fear part, they could have pivoted and moved Marner (for example) after losing to MTL, staying the course sure as shit hasn't worked out well.

As much as I want them to win in the playoffs it will be total melt down with Leafs nation if they go out first round again.
For me it’s conference final or bust

 

[Craig Button]

Ok, let's look at the top three viruses by test positivity rate:

Seasonal Human coronavirus 8.1%
COVID-19 7.0%
Influenza A 6.4%

Thanks for the brilliant insights as always, Craig.

Also it's best not to think about how like half of the roster was sick with a mysterious unnamed "illness" back in January. Maybe they all had measles.

I said theres a virus going around.

You replied with the name of a disease that only one virus is the cause for.

I educated you on the fact there are many viruses circulating.

You’re welcome.