Americanadian
Registered User
Forgive me if there are other threads in this board about the leafs future cap situation. I am a cap nerd, my favorite thing in the world (not actually, just on HFBoards) is speculating on the leafs future cap situation. It bothers me when people say the leafs will be screwed in the future when they have to pay the big 3. I created this thread to explore the different options the leafs can look at in the next 2 seasons. Warning, I am being optimistic about the majority of these situations.
The Big Three
1. Nylander
I have been adamant on these boards that Nylander has little to no right to demand more than Ehlers, definitely not more than Pastrnak.
Nylander has 2 arguments over Ehlers:
1. Cap is increasing by 4% (78M) or 6.67% (80M)
2. 2 seasons of 60 points (hopefully)
Ehlers has 2 arguments over Nylander
1. Higher point totals in contract year
2. Higher goal totals (I'll revisit this)
Even at 6.67% inflation you get 6.4M, I assume Nylander will get 6Mx7 years.
2. Marner
Marner's recent play has made him a wild card for me. Personally I would bridge him. Lock him in at 5mx3 years and see what you can do post Marleau. If Marner explodes a la Kucherov we will be in a different situation. Kucherov may be better than Stamkos. The difference between Stamkos and the highest paid player in the game (McDavid) is 4M which is a lot. Kucherov may demand more than Stamkos because Stamkos has set such a low bar. Marner will not be in a situation to price himself between Matthews and McDavid due to a smaller gap.
3. Matthews
Matthews arguments vs Eichel
1. Better rookie season
2. More goals (How much does this matter? If it is a significant factor then Ehlers>Nylander without question)
3. Led team to playoffs both seasons
Argument for Matthews=Eichel
1. Same PPG in year that they sign their contract
I believe Matthews will sign at 10.5x8M. He is closer to Eichel than McDavid even though leafs fans including myself don't want to admit it (Eichel is a hell of a player).
2018-2019 season
Re-signed players:
Johnsson 850,000 x2
Aaltonen 850,000 x2
Komarov 1.5M x2
Reasoning - leafs seem to be able to lock up their marlies players with limited to no NHL experience on these cheap contracts. I could be a little too low.
Hyman 2.25-Matthews 3.75 (bonuses) -Nylander 6
Marleau 6.25 - Kadri 4.5 - Marner 1.75 (bonuses)
Johnsson 0.85 - Aaltonen 0.85 - Brown 2.1
Leivo 0.925 - Komarov 1.5 - Kapanen 0.875 (rounding)
Martin 2.5
Rielly 5 - Hainsey 5
Gardiner 4.05 - Zaitsev 4.5
Dermott 0.85 - Borgman 0.925
Andersen 5
McElhenney 0.85
Kessel 1.2
Total: just over 59.5M (assuming Horton LTIR)
With 18.5M (78M cap) or 20.5M (80M cap) we would be able to absorb the potential bonuses from this season (17-18). Let's assume 78M, the bonuses from this season will be 2.5M, that leaves us with 16M play with.
John Tavares
WARNING: HE WOULD HAVE TO CHOSE TO SIGN WITH THE LEAFS
John Tavares is a scheduled to become a UFA this off season. He will command a big pay day. There seems to be a distorted view on this web site about what exactly a big pay day is. Everything I read is suggestion Tavares will command way more than 10M, potentially more than McDavid's team crippling 12.5M. There are six players in the NHL who make 8 figures: Price (Vezina, Hart), Kane (Hart, Art Ross, Stanley Cup x3, Conn Smythe), Toews (Selke, Conn Smythe, Stanley Cup x3), McDavid (Hart, Art Ross, 20 years old at signing), Kopitar (Selke, Stanley Cup x2), Eichel (also ran x2). John Tavares compares to Jack Eichel! Seriously though, unless there are stupid teams that will throw McDavid money at him I believe he will settle at 9Mx7 based off his point totals and desire to win (more than Getzlaf, Stamkos, Crosby, Malkin, Giroux, Thornton, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, 99% of the league).
If we add Tavares at 9, 2.5M in bonuses, we're left with 7M to play with. A move I want to see and have minimal explanation for is signing Greg Pateryn to a 2.5Mx3 year deal but this is only if the leafs can move Zaitsev the following year. Let's assume they can. This extra cap space may also provide an opportunity for the leafs to dump Martin's last 2 years in exchange for a bad 1 year contract (Spezza!, Orpik, Paul Martin).
Martin for Martin because that's fun.
2018-2019 revision:
Hyman 2.25-Matthews 3.75 (bonuses) -Nylander 6
Leivo 0.925 - Tavares 9 - Marner 1.75 (bonuses)
Marleau 6.25 - Kadri 4.5 - Brown 2.1
Komarov 1.5 - Aaltonen 0.85 - Kapanen 0.875 (I love this Finnish line)
Johnsson 0.85
Rielly 5 - Hainsey 3
Gardiner 4.05 - Zaitsev 4.5
Dermott 0.85 - Pateryn 2.5
Martin 4.85
Andersen 5
McElhenney 0.85
Kessel 1.2
Total with bonuses from 17-18 AND 18-19 season: 73.4M
On to the 2019-20 season, when things get fun.
First things first, I threw away Horton, we don't worry about that contract anymore, the same way Pronger is retired and still being paid. Second, the bonuses were covered last season.
Re-sign:
Marner 5Mx3
Matthews 10.5Mx8
Kapanen 1.5Mx2 (unless he breaks out, then this becomes more difficult)
Zaitsev traded away for hopes and dreams (b level prospect) - Chicago for Chad Krys?, Buffalo for Nylander?, anywhere for anyone?
Drew Doughty
WARNING: HE WOULD HAVE TO CHOSE TO SIGN WITH THE LEAFS
Probably going to re-sign in LA, but maybe not. Has the hardware to hang with the 8 figures club but would be the only defenseman (probably not after Karlsson is signed). I see Doughty coming in at 9.5Mx7 years. Maybe closer to 10, hard to gauge this price. He claims he wants to win but he seems more concerned with money. For this exercise I'll put him at 10mx7 years on the leafs.
Hyman 2.25-Matthews 10.5 -Nylander 6
Grundstrom 0.925 - Tavares 9 - Marner 5
Marleau 6.25 - Kadri 4.5 - Brown 2.1
Komarov 1.5 - Aaltonen 0.85 - Kapanen 0.875
Johnsson 0.85
Dermott 0.85 - Doughty 10
Rielly 5 - Pateryn 2.5
Borgman 0.925 - Liljegren 0.925 (Swedish youngsters sheltered on the 3rd pair)
Andersen 5
Pickard 0.95
Kessel 1.2 (I hate this)
Total: 78.6M
Assuming a 82M cap that leaves 3.4M to fix my errors, 10M for Tavares? Don't bridge Marner? 12M for Matthews? More for Doughty? Keep Zaitsev over Pateryn?
The following season Marleau's money will come off the books, Dermott and Brown will be due for new contracts. 6.25 from Marleau + 2.1 from Brown, + 0.85 from Dermott +6.4 cap space (85M cap in 20/21) leaves 15.6M to sign those 2. Replace Marleau with a FA or Johnsson or a Marlie.
Hyman 2.25 - Matthews 10.5 - Nylander 6
Korshkov 0.925 - Tavares 9 - Marner 5
Grundstrom 0.925 - Kadri 4.5 - Brown 3.3
Johnsson 1.5 - Aaltonen 1.5 - Kapanen 1.5
Dermott 5 - Doughty 10
Rielly 5 - Pateryn 2.5
Borgman 1.5 - Liljegren 0.925
Andersen 5
Pickard 0.95
Kessel! 1.2
Total: 79.975M (or 80M)
I'm tired now, I'm going to sleep. I hope one person reads this and says: "that's not that crazy".
The Big Three
1. Nylander
I have been adamant on these boards that Nylander has little to no right to demand more than Ehlers, definitely not more than Pastrnak.
Nylander has 2 arguments over Ehlers:
1. Cap is increasing by 4% (78M) or 6.67% (80M)
2. 2 seasons of 60 points (hopefully)
Ehlers has 2 arguments over Nylander
1. Higher point totals in contract year
2. Higher goal totals (I'll revisit this)
Even at 6.67% inflation you get 6.4M, I assume Nylander will get 6Mx7 years.
2. Marner
Marner's recent play has made him a wild card for me. Personally I would bridge him. Lock him in at 5mx3 years and see what you can do post Marleau. If Marner explodes a la Kucherov we will be in a different situation. Kucherov may be better than Stamkos. The difference between Stamkos and the highest paid player in the game (McDavid) is 4M which is a lot. Kucherov may demand more than Stamkos because Stamkos has set such a low bar. Marner will not be in a situation to price himself between Matthews and McDavid due to a smaller gap.
3. Matthews
Matthews arguments vs Eichel
1. Better rookie season
2. More goals (How much does this matter? If it is a significant factor then Ehlers>Nylander without question)
3. Led team to playoffs both seasons
Argument for Matthews=Eichel
1. Same PPG in year that they sign their contract
I believe Matthews will sign at 10.5x8M. He is closer to Eichel than McDavid even though leafs fans including myself don't want to admit it (Eichel is a hell of a player).
2018-2019 season
Re-signed players:
Johnsson 850,000 x2
Aaltonen 850,000 x2
Komarov 1.5M x2
Reasoning - leafs seem to be able to lock up their marlies players with limited to no NHL experience on these cheap contracts. I could be a little too low.
Hyman 2.25-Matthews 3.75 (bonuses) -Nylander 6
Marleau 6.25 - Kadri 4.5 - Marner 1.75 (bonuses)
Johnsson 0.85 - Aaltonen 0.85 - Brown 2.1
Leivo 0.925 - Komarov 1.5 - Kapanen 0.875 (rounding)
Martin 2.5
Rielly 5 - Hainsey 5
Gardiner 4.05 - Zaitsev 4.5
Dermott 0.85 - Borgman 0.925
Andersen 5
McElhenney 0.85
Kessel 1.2
Total: just over 59.5M (assuming Horton LTIR)
With 18.5M (78M cap) or 20.5M (80M cap) we would be able to absorb the potential bonuses from this season (17-18). Let's assume 78M, the bonuses from this season will be 2.5M, that leaves us with 16M play with.
John Tavares
WARNING: HE WOULD HAVE TO CHOSE TO SIGN WITH THE LEAFS
John Tavares is a scheduled to become a UFA this off season. He will command a big pay day. There seems to be a distorted view on this web site about what exactly a big pay day is. Everything I read is suggestion Tavares will command way more than 10M, potentially more than McDavid's team crippling 12.5M. There are six players in the NHL who make 8 figures: Price (Vezina, Hart), Kane (Hart, Art Ross, Stanley Cup x3, Conn Smythe), Toews (Selke, Conn Smythe, Stanley Cup x3), McDavid (Hart, Art Ross, 20 years old at signing), Kopitar (Selke, Stanley Cup x2), Eichel (also ran x2). John Tavares compares to Jack Eichel! Seriously though, unless there are stupid teams that will throw McDavid money at him I believe he will settle at 9Mx7 based off his point totals and desire to win (more than Getzlaf, Stamkos, Crosby, Malkin, Giroux, Thornton, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, 99% of the league).
If we add Tavares at 9, 2.5M in bonuses, we're left with 7M to play with. A move I want to see and have minimal explanation for is signing Greg Pateryn to a 2.5Mx3 year deal but this is only if the leafs can move Zaitsev the following year. Let's assume they can. This extra cap space may also provide an opportunity for the leafs to dump Martin's last 2 years in exchange for a bad 1 year contract (Spezza!, Orpik, Paul Martin).
Martin for Martin because that's fun.
2018-2019 revision:
Hyman 2.25-Matthews 3.75 (bonuses) -Nylander 6
Leivo 0.925 - Tavares 9 - Marner 1.75 (bonuses)
Marleau 6.25 - Kadri 4.5 - Brown 2.1
Komarov 1.5 - Aaltonen 0.85 - Kapanen 0.875 (I love this Finnish line)
Johnsson 0.85
Rielly 5 - Hainsey 3
Gardiner 4.05 - Zaitsev 4.5
Dermott 0.85 - Pateryn 2.5
Martin 4.85
Andersen 5
McElhenney 0.85
Kessel 1.2
Total with bonuses from 17-18 AND 18-19 season: 73.4M
On to the 2019-20 season, when things get fun.
First things first, I threw away Horton, we don't worry about that contract anymore, the same way Pronger is retired and still being paid. Second, the bonuses were covered last season.
Re-sign:
Marner 5Mx3
Matthews 10.5Mx8
Kapanen 1.5Mx2 (unless he breaks out, then this becomes more difficult)
Zaitsev traded away for hopes and dreams (b level prospect) - Chicago for Chad Krys?, Buffalo for Nylander?, anywhere for anyone?
Drew Doughty
WARNING: HE WOULD HAVE TO CHOSE TO SIGN WITH THE LEAFS
Probably going to re-sign in LA, but maybe not. Has the hardware to hang with the 8 figures club but would be the only defenseman (probably not after Karlsson is signed). I see Doughty coming in at 9.5Mx7 years. Maybe closer to 10, hard to gauge this price. He claims he wants to win but he seems more concerned with money. For this exercise I'll put him at 10mx7 years on the leafs.
Hyman 2.25-Matthews 10.5 -Nylander 6
Grundstrom 0.925 - Tavares 9 - Marner 5
Marleau 6.25 - Kadri 4.5 - Brown 2.1
Komarov 1.5 - Aaltonen 0.85 - Kapanen 0.875
Johnsson 0.85
Dermott 0.85 - Doughty 10
Rielly 5 - Pateryn 2.5
Borgman 0.925 - Liljegren 0.925 (Swedish youngsters sheltered on the 3rd pair)
Andersen 5
Pickard 0.95
Kessel 1.2 (I hate this)
Total: 78.6M
Assuming a 82M cap that leaves 3.4M to fix my errors, 10M for Tavares? Don't bridge Marner? 12M for Matthews? More for Doughty? Keep Zaitsev over Pateryn?
The following season Marleau's money will come off the books, Dermott and Brown will be due for new contracts. 6.25 from Marleau + 2.1 from Brown, + 0.85 from Dermott +6.4 cap space (85M cap in 20/21) leaves 15.6M to sign those 2. Replace Marleau with a FA or Johnsson or a Marlie.
Hyman 2.25 - Matthews 10.5 - Nylander 6
Korshkov 0.925 - Tavares 9 - Marner 5
Grundstrom 0.925 - Kadri 4.5 - Brown 3.3
Johnsson 1.5 - Aaltonen 1.5 - Kapanen 1.5
Dermott 5 - Doughty 10
Rielly 5 - Pateryn 2.5
Borgman 1.5 - Liljegren 0.925
Andersen 5
Pickard 0.95
Kessel! 1.2
Total: 79.975M (or 80M)
I'm tired now, I'm going to sleep. I hope one person reads this and says: "that's not that crazy".
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