Post-Game Talk: Leafs snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, 2-1 OT win

[Antropovsky]

Boring.

You stopped parroting the "Domi is better than Marner because of 5v5 points per 60" this year I see.

Also, based on this criteria, Protas is better than McDavid/MacKinnon/Kaprizov/etc.

Last year Domi did have better 5v5 stats than Marner. That will never change. 3 million Domi produced better 5v5 than 11 million Marner! Forever locked into history. That was despite playing much more with bottom 6 players. While Marner only played with Tavares and Matthews (primarily with Matthews though). When Domi played with Matthews last year... he absolutely DESTROYED Marners 5v5 stats with Matthews.

This year, with Tavares and Nylander...Domi has 2.45 p/60 and 2.68 p/60.

This year, with Tavares or Matthews....Marner has 2.5 p/60 and 3.25 p/60

That's comparing apples to apples. But Domi hasn't been given much of an opportunity with these guys this year. While Marner again is always with best leaf center, even when one is injured. Except for a very brief time when Marner was tried on a line without Tavares and Matthews and just like the past postseason when it was tried... he looked very very bad.

You understand the concept of apples to apples right?

Would you expect Marner, playing with Reaves and Kampf all year to be compared to Nylander...if Nylander played with Matthews and Tavares all year?


Now stop making me repeat this stuff over and over.... because later you and your tiny gang will start saying I repeat myself too much. Make your minds up!

 

[Antropovsky]

Why do you frame EVERYTHING with a purposefully limited filter that shades EVERYTHING in a negative light?

Nylander is 6th in the league in goals, 3 goals behind 1st, Marner is 7th in points 8 points behind 1st. For goalies that have played 10 or more games, Stolrz is #1 at .928, Woll is 5th at .919. Leafs are 5th for GA/GP, PK is 5th. FOW% 5th. Who cares what their 5 v 5 points are? They are one of the elite teams this year.

Me? I responded to a poster who said the depth guys aren't producing.That isnt a negative light? Of course the depth guys aren't!... They get paid table scraps and don't play PP. The core guys can hardly produce 5v5.

AND...apparently we have to play Reaves because the core guys taking up the entire cap have no leadership abilities, are easily pushed around and easily intimidated.

 

[Zybalto]

He was the best goalie on the Ducks, but that's not saying much. Anaheim was trash defensively, but SV% is more about the distribution of shot qualities, not overall quality. They also did not even face the same quality. Miller faced 2.61 xGA/60, Stolarz faced 2.90 xGA/60, Gibson faced 3.03 xGA/60, and Dostal faced 3.57 xGA/60. The fact that he wasn't complete garbage on the Ducks would potentially give some hope, but he didn't really break out at all until last year.

Even getting into advanced stats, when you look at the overall save% in the league over that time and the overall xGA, you can see just how well Stolarz was performing considering the trash level of D in front of him.

Again, the Ducks were the worst defensive team in the league by a longshot over those 3 years but if you took the 65 goalies who played 2500+ minutes over that stretch, Stolarz ranked tied for16th for save%. That should have been a sign he could be a player and maybe why the Panthers jumped on him for their run. Both the Cats and Ducks have a number 1 locked in for big money though and no way he was getting a chance in either city right? I was one of the few around here pretty excited when he signed with us and I'm surprised he didnt get more attention elsewhere....and you know how hard I drilled down on goalkeeping being the big playoff issue for us the last half decade.

The offseason moves were largley good, especially getting Stolarz and Tanev (pretty much the long awaited Muzzin replacement). The team has just been so beat up we cant see what we really have atm and goaltending has kept us in the race for first.

 

[notbias]

Last year Domi did have better 5v5 stats than Marner. That will never change. 3 million Domi produced better 5v5 than 11 million Marner! Forever locked into history. That was despite playing much more with bottom 6 players. While Marner only played with Tavares and Matthews (primarily with Matthews though). When Domi played with Matthews last year... he absolutely DESTROYED Marners 5v5 stats with Matthews.

This year, with Tavares and Nylander...Domi has 2.45 p/60 and 2.68 p/60.

This year, with Tavares or Matthews....Marner has 2.5 p/60 and 3.25 p/60

That's comparing apples to apples. But Domi hasn't been given much of an opportunity with these guys this year. While Marner again is always with best leaf center, even when one is injured. Except for a very brief time when Marner was tried on a line without Tavares and Matthews and just like the past postseason when it was tried... he looked very very bad.

You understand the concept of apples to apples right?

Would you expect Marner, playing with Reaves and Kampf all year to be compared to Nylander...if Nylander played with Matthews and Tavares all year?


Now stop making me repeat this stuff over and over.... because later you and your tiny gang will start saying I repeat myself too much. Make your minds up!

So explain how Potras is destroying McDavid in the same stats this year and how much better he is...

You always pick and choose what you respond to because your logic is limited to single instances and can't be applied across the board.

Clearly if Domi > Marner last year then Potras > McDavid this year.

 

[Enniskillen]

Devils fans lamenting lack of response after Patches hit on Hughes. And as usual Keefe downplayed it as if nothing happened.

 

[notbias]

Devils fans lamenting lack of response after Patches hit on Hughes.

We should probably worry more about how Reaves doesn't defend anyone and that is his only job instead of why a veteran like Pacioretty wasn't jumped.

 

[DarkKnight]

Another good takeaway, our PK shutdown the top ranked PP. Our PK killed us last year, we’re 5th this year.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Again, the Ducks were the worst defensive team in the league by a longshot over those 3 years but if you took the 65 goalies who played 2500+ minutes over that stretch, Stolarz ranked tied for16th for save%.

Even putting aside the vast difference in defensive play that each goalie experienced on the same team, you seem to be going off the assumption that poor defensive play has an automatic deflationary impact on SV%, when that's not true. Impacts on SV% are from distribution of shot qualities. The 0.913 that Stolarz got may look nice, but his expected save percentage based on what he actually faced was also 0.913. He performed as a league average goalie.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Also, based on this criteria, Protas is better than McDavid/MacKinnon/Kaprizov/etc.

Based on his criteria, Marner would be the 5th best player since he signed his contract. Funny how I've never seen him use this to claim that Marner is underpaid.

 

[Evilhomer]

Another good takeaway, our PK shutdown the top ranked PP. Our PK killed us last year, we’re 5th this year.

Coaching.

Even putting aside the vast difference in defensive play that each goalie experienced on the same team, you seem to be going off the assumption that poor defensive play has an automatic deflationary impact on SV%, when that's not true. Impacts on SV% are from distribution of shot qualities. The 0.913 that Stolarz got may look nice, but his expected save percentage based on what he actually faced was also 0.913. He performed as a league average goalie.

I hope Stolartz turns into prime Dominik Hasek, but people need to take a deep breath when it comes to this guy. I think there is a better chance that Woll will end up being the starter in the playoffs than Stolartz.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

As someone who sat in the stands and watched both I’d take Belfour all day.
He’s the best Goalie I’ve seen play here.
He made the game look so easy.

A matter of preference which is why bringing up “better” is subjective. You’re absolutely right about Belfour. I remember him being steady and solid. I preferred Cujo because he was more flashy. It’s like choosing between a Kobe beef steak or Wagyu beef steak. Whichever you choose is going to be mighty fine.

 

[mikeyz]

Don't worry. Do they have a good goalie for the playoffs? A good defense? They might be alright.

This is the one aspect that's been different from last year and years past that gives me hope that this year might be different.

Coaching.


I hope Stolartz turns into prime Dominik Hasek, but people need to take a deep breath when it comes to this guy. I think there is a better chance that Woll will end up being the starter in the playoffs than Stolartz.

Stolarz starting in the playoffs is officially confirmed!!!

 

[myleafs]

As someone who sat in the stands and watched both I’d take Belfour all day.
He’s the best Goalie I’ve seen play here.
He made the game look so easy.

I feel the same way. He was elite. When Belfour came to the leafs, it was clear right from the get go how good he was and while Im a big fan of Cujo, if I had to pick between the two I take Belfour.

 

[egd27]

Agree on all your points. I don't think Reaves played in the last 10 minutes. Played only 6:37 in the game. If you can't trust your 4th liner in a tie game, why is he on your roster.

The Devils 4th line averaged about 7 mins TOI. Does your question apply to them as well?

 

[Ianturnedbull]

I'm afraid there are elite forces at work. A small circle (The Elite) of HFboards members have chosen NJD as their model team. They have skill and speed. They have top-end Euro talent. A game like last night must be driving them nuts. They must have been going to the expected goals/deserve to win meter quite often.

Oh well. You lost. The Devils faced a hot goalie.

 

[egd27]

Another good takeaway, our PK shutdown the top ranked PP. Our PK killed us last year, we’re 5th this year.

Wonder if it has anything to do with our 2 goalies being Top 5 in SV% ?

 

[CabanaBoy5]

The Devils 4th line averaged about 7 mins TOI. Does your question apply to them as well?

No, my question applies to the Leafs' useless 4th liner who played 6:37 vs his linemates who played 10:48 and 8:53 TOI because they were on the penalty kill making themselves useful. I repeat, what use is Reaves? What's his role? Does he perform it well? Could that position be used by another player who would perform that role?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Great post! Our goaltending seems to be a strength for a change and the D looks pretty good but in the end, these 4 guys taking up half the cap need to earn their pay in the playoffs. To this point, they have not done that, and IMHO that is the main reason that we've played sub .500 hockey in the playoffs for 8 years running. If they don't buy in, we have no shot, simple as that.


Not a chance. McCabe and Tanev make less than 7 million combined and I think we can count on them to more than earn their pay in the playoffs, same goes for the goaltenders. The core 4 however, Nylander's the only one we can count on to show up in the playoffs but we need all those guys playing well or our fate will be the usual early start to the golf season.

It will be same old same old from Matty Mitch and JT .. hope and prayer only work in church .. none of those guys have enough speed and/or physical games to power through when their skills mean nothing .. it will be Domi Willy (as he has da speed) Tanev Mccabe Woll and Stolly who MIGHT get it done for us .. all will be revealed again much like past 8 years .. playoffs battles are won with D and G

NJD are extremely soft and will be eliminated in round 1.

agreed

 

[DarkKnight]

Wonder if it has anything to do with our 2 goalies being Top 5 in SV% ?

The fact it's two speaks to the system as well.

 

[ITM]

I feel the same way. He was elite. When Belfour came to the leafs, it was clear right from the get go how good he was and while Im a big fan of Cujo, if I had to pick between the two I take Belfour.

Oh, all day, every day.

Best way I can describe the difference in styles is less to do with positional vs athletic/reactive and more to do with Belfour positioning so well because the play was already read and accounted for. Like his ability to read the game was a tier above.

That and Cujo doing his best pseudo-Bourque to Detroit for his best chance to win a cup have me taking the Eagle every single time.

Jacques Martin’s assessment during the Team Canada selection process was an eye-opener; In head to head against Hasek and Roy, it was Belfour who came out on top.

 

[Gary Nylund]

It will be same old same old from Matty Mitch and JT .. hope and prayer only work in church .. none of those guys have enough speed and/or physical games to power through when their skills mean nothing .. it will be Domi Willy (as he has da speed) Tanev Mccabe Woll and Stolly who MIGHT get it done for us .. all will be revealed again much like past 8 years .. playoffs battles are won with D and G

agreed

Hard to see much "getting done" without a big contribution from the 3 guys taking up 35+ million of our cap.

The fact it's two speaks to the system as well.

Yeah well, the system wasn't much help last night. System's been good, but make no mistake, the goalies have been better.

Oh, all day, every day.

Best way I can describe the difference in styles is less to do with positional vs athletic/reactive and more to do with Belfour positioning so well because the play was already read and accounted for. Like his ability to read the game was a tier above.

That and Cujo doing his best pseudo-Bourque to Detroit for his best chance to win a cup have me taking the Eagle every single time.

Jacques Martin’s assessment during the Team Canada selection process was an eye-opener; In head to head against Hasek and Roy, it was Belfour who came out on top.

Yup, Belfour over Cujo easily. Arguably the 3rd best goaltender of his generation after Hasek and Roy.