Post-Game Talk: Leafs Lose 5-2

[notDatsyuk]

What he was also point out that William Nylander making $6,962,366 AAV is also more than any Bruin forward.

True, although to be fair, Pastrnak's cap % when he signed was slightly higher.

But yes, Marchand is right. And it started with overpaying Tavares.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Can someone please explain this to me?

These are two different scoring chances that Brandon Carlo had last night.

View attachment 645050
View attachment 645051

He released the shot in almost the exact same area.

The first scoring chance was graded out as a 0.04 xG taken from 27 feet away whereas the second scoring chance was graded out as a 0.13 xG taken from 18 feet away.

First chance is the S on this chart and the second chance is the G

View attachment 645057

On the second scoring chance they classify it as a "Rebound" event but the rebound event occured at 7:39 or even 7:34 of the second and the goal scored was 7-12 seconds removed from the actual rebound. Carlo took a shot from the point, Liljegren had possession for a second and failed a clear and was grabbed by Lindholm, who takes a shot that hits traffic. Coyle retrieves puck feeds puck back to Lindholm who then passes it to Carlo. When Carlo actually gets the puck on his stick its now so far removed from the first or second rebound event its hilarious to grade this a rebound event.

Actually in the second scoring chance where Carlo actually scores, Sandin is partially in the shooting lane and Carlo grabbed the pass almost standing flat footed whereas the first scoring chance he was able to skate fully into the shot with no defender even close to the shooting lane.

You can easily make an argument that the first scoring chance was superior but somehow the expected goals for model says that the second chance was 3 times more likely to end up in a goal. To place these scoring chances a full 9 feet apart in distance is a total joke but it seems like something that is pretty common with these sites.

Because junk stats are just that. Garbage in, garbage out.

 

[ZEBROA]

Not disputing anything you said, but there is another way of looking at it.

When you have the puck and an opposing player is coming at you to block the shot, you can shoot it and hope you miss him, or pass/dump/deke the puck away from him.

Part of the discrepancy, particularly when it's Boston, may be from their shooters making better decisions.

Yes it is probably both those things, getting better att blocking shots and find shooting lanes. That would be great

 

[Space umpire]

That's not every game in the 60s and 70s. That's your incorrect, half-century old, nostalgia-driven memory of the most memorable games and moments from the 60s and 70s.
They wouldn't destroy today's teams. Player and team quality has risen dramatically since those times, and the rules have changed.
"Pounding players into the ground" is not how you win.

Yet not being able to “pound” or be tough enough to play through it is how “some teams” no matter how talented they appear during the regular season can never get passed the 1st round.
And understand, it’s not all about hitting and being hit. It’s about being able to play through it.
I’m a transplanted Chicagoan. They didn’t win 3 cups by pounding anyone into the ground. They won by being able to take the hits and keep coming. Guys like Toews, Kane, Sharp, Hossa, Versteeg, Keith, Campbell, Oduya (players you don’t see as overly “physical”) just kept skating. The bottom 6 played in your face hockey not giving an inch.
Until Leaf talent (the big 4 up front and all of the defense) commit to absorb the punishment it takes to advance it won’t happen.
I am humored that you think because your opine and mine differ that it’s incorrect “nostalgia-driven”.

 

[IPS]

Can someone please explain this to me?

These are two different scoring chances that Brandon Carlo had last night.

View attachment 645050
View attachment 645051

He released the shot in almost the exact same area.

The first scoring chance was graded out as a 0.04 xG taken from 27 feet away whereas the second scoring chance was graded out as a 0.13 xG taken from 18 feet away.

First chance is the S on this chart and the second chance is the G

View attachment 645057

On the second scoring chance they classify it as a "Rebound" event but the rebound event occured at 7:39 or even 7:34 of the second and the goal scored was 7-12 seconds removed from the actual rebound. Carlo took a shot from the point, Liljegren had possession for a second and failed a clear and was grabbed by Lindholm, who takes a shot that hits traffic. Coyle retrieves puck feeds puck back to Lindholm who then passes it to Carlo. When Carlo actually gets the puck on his stick its now so far removed from the first or second rebound event its hilarious to grade this a rebound event.

Actually in the second scoring chance where Carlo actually scores, Sandin is partially in the shooting lane and Carlo grabbed the pass almost standing flat footed whereas the first scoring chance he was able to skate fully into the shot with no defender even close to the shooting lane.

You can easily make an argument that the first scoring chance was superior but somehow the expected goals for model says that the second chance was 3 times more likely to end up in a goal. To place these scoring chances a full 9 feet apart in distance is a total joke but it seems like something that is pretty common with these sites.

Awesome post!

I hope to see more like this in the future - it really needs to be exposed just how terrible and uninformative these stats are.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Yet not being able to “pound” or be tough enough to play through it is how “some teams” no matter how talented they appear during the regular season can never get passed the 1st round.
And understand, it’s not all about hitting and being hit. It’s about being able to play through it.

The Leafs play through all that stuff perfectly fine. That's never been a problem in the playoffs.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Awesome post!

I hope to see more like this in the future - it really needs to be exposed just how terrible and uninformative these stats are.

And his post has been completely ignored by all of our advanced stats aficionados.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And his post has been completely ignored by all of our advanced stats aficionados.

Because it's a silly attempt to try and discredit all of advanced analytics just because one shot event (that was incorrectly equated to another shot event) on specifically one site was mistakenly labeled, meaning that Boston had even less xGF by a pretty negligible ~0.04 or so.

 

[weems]

Awesome post!

I hope to see more like this in the future - it really needs to be exposed just how terrible and uninformative these stats are.

Here's a beauty from the first period the other night.

David Pastrnak first period chance

This was graded as 0.08 xGF and taken from 13 feet away

Taylor Hall first period chance

This was graded as 0.14 xGF and taken from 4 feet away

 

[hamzarocks]

The Leafs play through all that stuff perfectly fine. That's never been a problem in the playoffs.

Game 2 Boston in 2018 and 2019 it was a problem

 

[Racer88]

That is exactly what Marchand was trolling the Leafs with.

Everyone that follows hockey knows that Matthews, Tavares and Marner have 3 of the 7 highest AAV contracts in the NHL.

What he was also point out that William Nylander making $6,962,366 AAV is also more than any Bruin forward.

View attachment 645326

So all 4 Leafs forwards that eat up 1/2 the teams cap all make more than the highest paid Bruin forward. So how can the Leafs compete when the Bruins have so much more quality depth and solid team when they manage therir cap and spread the wealth throughout ?

Almost every hockey person on the planet understands that this approach doesn’t work except for Dubas, Shanny and a few posters here.

 

[Space umpire]

The Leafs play through all that stuff perfectly fine. That's never been a problem in the playoffs.

LOL, sure.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

By now, the Leafs core should be much better than Boston’s.

Krejci and Zacha are a significant up grade to Boston's top 9 from last year. Add DeBrusk, Frederic and Filing I'd improvement and Boston is equipped for a run to the SCF if they upgrade their D at the deadline.

 

[BallardEra]

When's the next game. I'm ready:

 

[mcleex]

Why is there such a long time off before we play again? Teams start playing Monday and we don't play till Friday

 

[ACC1224]

Why is there such a long time off before we play again? Teams start playing Monday and we don't play till Friday

Every team gets a week off during the season, just not at the same time.

 

[Antropovsky]

Here's a beauty from the first period the other night.

David Pastrnak first period chance

View attachment 645481

This was graded as 0.08 xGF and taken from 13 feet away

View attachment 645483

Taylor Hall first period chance

View attachment 645484

This was graded as 0.14 xGF and taken from 4 feet away

View attachment 645485

These are the kinda posts I enjoy reading! Thanks!

 

[mcleex]

Every team gets a week off during the season, just not at the same time.

Still feels like we had one earlier in the year
Anyways I guess it is good timing with the Matthews injury

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Hall re-signed in Boston for 7 AAV; there was no way we would have been able to afford him without cutting either Marner/Nylander/Matthews or completely gutting the bottom 6 or defense.

Hall re-signed for $6M.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

Can someone please explain this to me?

These are two different scoring chances that Brandon Carlo had last night.

View attachment 645050
View attachment 645051

He released the shot in almost the exact same area.

The first scoring chance was graded out as a 0.04 xG taken from 27 feet away whereas the second scoring chance was graded out as a 0.13 xG taken from 18 feet away.

First chance is the S on this chart and the second chance is the G

View attachment 645057

On the second scoring chance they classify it as a "Rebound" event but the rebound event occured at 7:39 or even 7:34 of the second and the goal scored was 7-12 seconds removed from the actual rebound. Carlo took a shot from the point, Liljegren had possession for a second and failed a clear and was grabbed by Lindholm, who takes a shot that hits traffic. Coyle retrieves puck feeds puck back to Lindholm who then passes it to Carlo. When Carlo actually gets the puck on his stick its now so far removed from the first or second rebound event its hilarious to grade this a rebound event.

Actually in the second scoring chance where Carlo actually scores, Sandin is partially in the shooting lane and Carlo grabbed the pass almost standing flat footed whereas the first scoring chance he was able to skate fully into the shot with no defender even close to the shooting lane.

You can easily make an argument that the first scoring chance was superior but somehow the expected goals for model says that the second chance was 3 times more likely to end up in a goal. To place these scoring chances a full 9 feet apart in distance is a total joke but it seems like something that is pretty common with these sites.

Carlo's second chance was about 10-12 feet not 27. What site is this and what person does it?

Carlo's second chance was about 10-12 feet not 27. What site is this and what person does it?

Sorry, 1st chance.

 

[weems]

Carlo's second chance was about 10-12 feet not 27. What site is this and what person does it?


Sorry, 1st chance.

This first picture is from the site Moneypuck

The second picure is from the site Naturalstattrick

 

[notbias]

That is exactly what Marchand was trolling the Leafs with.

Everyone that follows hockey knows that Matthews, Tavares and Marner have 3 of the 7 highest AAV contracts in the NHL.

What he was also point out that William Nylander making $6,962,366 AAV is also more than any Bruin forward.

View attachment 645326

So all 4 Leafs forwards that eat up 1/2 the teams cap all make more than the highest paid Bruin forward. So how can the Leafs compete when the Bruins have so much more quality depth and solid team when they manage therir cap and spread the wealth throughout ?

First off, use cap %, anything else is useless.

Secondly, just look into the stats of each player before they signed.

 

[Its not your fault]

Paging Kyle Dubas and Shanahan

Cool and great point however you must aquire type of mindset. Maybe 7 players think that way in the whole league.

 

[Mess]

Cool and great point however you must aquire type of mindset. Maybe 7 players think that way in the whole league.

Remember this in Toronto ??

Leafs expect young stars to take less money to stay together​

Team president Shanahan hoping for long championship window in Toronto

Maple Leafs president Brendan Shanahan says the team expects its star players to make financial sacrifices to be part of what's hoped will be a long championship window in Toronto.

And that begins with the still-unsigned William Nylander.

Speaking at an event before the Leafs opened the NHL regular season at Scotiabank Arena against the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday, Shanahan reflected on his three Stanley Cup victories with the Detroit Red Wings as personal proof that taking a little less money can be worth it in the long run. "When I get together with some of my old mates from the Cup years in Detroit ... we talk about winning together and growing together, and that's what we remember," Shanahan said. "We all found a way to fit with each other so that we could keep adding to the group.

"That's obviously what we're asking some of our young leaders to do.".. "[Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas] and I have the same vision for what we want to continue to build here and make it sustainable," Shanahan said. "While these things are not easy to do, Kyle and I are on the exact same page as far as the things we need to do in order to achieve it.

"What I hope is they can look back on 20 years, 30 years down the road ... and what's going to be most important to them is whether or not they maxed out as an individual and a team and have championships to look back on and remember fondly."

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-toronto-maple-leafs-brendan-shanahan-expectations-1.4849758

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Remember this in Toronto ??

Leafs expect young stars to take less money to stay together​

Team president Shanahan hoping for long championship window in Toronto

Maple Leafs president Brendan Shanahan says the team expects its star players to make financial sacrifices to be part of what's hoped will be a long championship window in Toronto.

And that begins with the still-unsigned William Nylander.

Speaking at an event before the Leafs opened the NHL regular season at Scotiabank Arena against the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday, Shanahan reflected on his three Stanley Cup victories with the Detroit Red Wings as personal proof that taking a little less money can be worth it in the long run. "When I get together with some of my old mates from the Cup years in Detroit ... we talk about winning together and growing together, and that's what we remember," Shanahan said. "We all found a way to fit with each other so that we could keep adding to the group.

"That's obviously what we're asking some of our young leaders to do.".. "[Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas] and I have the same vision for what we want to continue to build here and make it sustainable," Shanahan said. "While these things are not easy to do, Kyle and I are on the exact same page as far as the things we need to do in order to achieve it.

"What I hope is they can look back on 20 years, 30 years down the road ... and what's going to be most important to them is whether or not they maxed out as an individual and a team and have championships to look back on and remember fondly."

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-toronto-maple-leafs-brendan-shanahan-expectations-1.4849758

That was embarrassing for Shanny for many different reasons least of which was his own pro contract negotiating .. and pretty stupid too .. Shanny knows better as a poor kid from Mimico .. for Matty and Mitch it was same as it was for Shanny .. we got lucky with Willy but in da end Willy did not need to play pro hockey to be rich .. and JT already had a nice position from wages from Isles .. da whole affair was so badly managed it was embarrassing