Ilya Samsonov is not the problem with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Relax - I'm aware he's part of it. He's been subpar at best, and last night's game against Buffalo was as bad as I've seen him play. The Greenway goal was soft, but he looked unstable all game long.
Given Samsonov's numbers on the season and with last night's sheet-staining performance top of mind, I understand the criticism.
But I believe last night's game has instilled a bias. Evoked tunnel vision. The low hanging fruit has emerged from the canopy, ripe for the fans to pluck, as they so often do. Samsonov was brutal - there's no getting around that. He's not been nearly as good this year overall, there's no getting around that either. But I’ve included a montage of all 46 goals scored against Samsonov this season to at least contextualize his numbers. His goals against tell a bigger story than the Greenway softie.
Turnovers. Terrible defensive positioning. Players left alone in the slot. Tap ins. Deflections. Of course, some he's just gotta have, but he’s been hung out to dry way too often.
If you watch no further, look at the first 5 goals scored by Montreal.
Ultimately, Samsonov's a $3.5m goaltender - the 30th highest paid goaltender in the league. Therefore, it's fair to say that if he can get his numbers inside the top 30, he's delivering positive value on his contract. This is still totally possible, but he's going to need more from the team in front of him.
HOWEVER
This also does not mean the Leafs can win a Stanley Cup with a ~30th-ranked goaltender, either. We need and hope for the Samsonov from last year to return. But if he doesn't, don’t confuse this with the benchmark for his value.
I scoff at the idea of sending Samsonov to the AHL. I am not considering this for a split second at this juncture. 26 years old, a year left on a $3.5m contract (low risk), decent body of work + last year's upside, shallow goalie market - and have you seen the Leafs playing defense in front of him? It's deflating his numbers. I’d be shocked if he cleared. Team defense is the bigger problem here. To risk costing your team a goalie without addressing team defense first would be a ridiculous mistake. As it stands, our best option when healthy is a rookie. We're dressing our 3rd stringer through ~February. We do not have a proven, NHL-ready 4th string goaltender. It will not be easy to find a goalie who can deliver the value I believe Samsonov can. Until team defense is fixed with consistency, good luck to whoever's back there.
Speaking of who's been back there, Joseph Woll, in my opinion, has been elite. If you look at his numbers, though, he's middle-of-the-pack among starters. Very average. Yeah, sorry - he's been nowhere close to average. He's been incredible, and his numbers would look much different if he were better insulated. Toronto's defensive flaws should be (and HELLO - are!) far more apparent in Woll’s absence. I've lost count of how many saves he's made that he's had no business making.
So what should the Leafs fix before focusing on goaltending / burning Samsonov with the spotlight?
I'd start with defensive sequences and taking care of the puck. If that's been exhausted, as I suspect it has, there is real urgency to changing personnel.
The Leafs have the 5th most giveaways in the NHL right now. Worse, they have 5 defensemen in the top 45 defensemen for most giveaways per 60. They have 8 defensemen in the top 75. (Note: "Top" = "Most Giveaways", ie. “Top" = "Bad").
4th: Lagesson
15th: Timmins
23rd: Rielly
30th: Klingberg
44th: Brodie
66th: Giordano
71st: McCabe
73rd: Liljegren
How does this compare to other top teams in the NHL? # of players in the top 75 most giveaways per 60, by team:
The Panthers, Bruins, and Avalanche have 2.
The Rangers, Flyers, Canucks, and Golden Knights have 1.
Dallas has zero.
Could Samsonov be better? Definitely. But the problem right now is in no one Leaf, it’s in the roots.